Skip to comments.Richard Russell: Stay In Cash, Something, Something 'BIG' Is Heading Our Way
Posted on 05/24/2012 6:20:58 AM PDT by blam
Richard Russell: Stay In Cash, Something, Something 'BIG' Is Heading Our Way
May 24, 2012, 6:34 AM
Bearish newsletter guy Richard Russell finds the market action to be very strange and ominous.
As of today's closing, Dow down 14 out of 16 sessions! This is one you can tell your kids about. And still no collapse in breadth, and still no crash. The only thing I can make out of it is that a lot of people are "standing their ground".
Maybe it's just the Dow that is dying, and the rest of the market is OK. But don't you believe it. The Dow represents the manufacturing capabilities of the United States, and when you see the Dow doing what it's doing, you can be sure that somewhere ahead business is going to take it on the chin.
By the way, on May 1st, the Dow recorded a high, but that high was not confirmed by the Transports. The two Averages then plunged below their April lows, delivering a bona fide Dow Theory bear signal. So yes, this is a continuation of the bear market. But it's starting out in a stranger way than any bear market I've ever seen. Maybe the experts are so fascinated with the Dow and Facebook that they're not taking in what's happening.
Stay in cash, because I intuit that something BIG is heading our way. After all these years following markets, sometimes I have the feeling that I've seen everything. But not this time. Hey, would you believe the Dow could go down 14 out of 16 sessions, and people would still be complacent? There are so many potentially bearish scenarios in the wind that my head is spinning.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
"At one point yesterday, the Dow was down 170, but in the final hour of the day, stocks made a stirring come back and ended basically flat."
Nobody really knows.
How about Europe collapsing? Iran going nuclear? Israel blasting Iran? Natural disasters of a variety of shapes and sizes?
I have never felt so uncertain about the future in my entire life.
blam, just a note to let you know I appreciate the business articles you post.
I think the powers that be are very much vested in keeping the charade going until Election Day.
Then, all bets are off.
The fire bells are going off everywhere, and our political class is saying, go back to sleeeeeeeeeeeeeep. Snzzzzzzzzz.
Just hang on 6 more months!
Not so much complacency as, depending on your status, you are either trapped because the prospect of clearing out means retirement accounts being liqiudated and huge tax hits, or you are a player who keeps pushing it up and turning around to take a profit at week’s end. I notice that the trend of consistent up-ticks through Wdnesday/Tursday, then sell offs on Friday/Monday, has slowed and it seems more tentative. Makes me think the big players know that the golden goose is ready for the dinner table and they don’t want to get caught when the inevitable happens. Moved all my retirements into Money Market to preserve the principle - 2 months ago whn it was about 12, 900 - it went up over 13,00 for a blip, hovered around 12,900 for a while and has declined enough to make me sure I didn’t screw up. Now, if only my “safe” principle doesn’t devalue to make it worthless...
Interesting. I just moved to a 50% cash position yesterday.
I am not so sure.
Obama won during a meltdown and he may believe he can do so again.
Remember, if all hell is breaking loose (economy collapse here and europe, war with iran, etc) the public rarely changes horses.
This time it’s not just the economy that is melting down. Obama is melting down too.
Today, if I had an extra pile of cash to invest, I would put it in land with timber on it.
There is no way to create more land and timber is a long term investment with a very stable market. Taxes are low on timberland and often a hunting lease can more than pay it all.
The PPT shifted into high gear!
sign me up for 500 shares of Weyerhaeuser
I haven’t followed it lately. It crashed in ‘10.
An easy way to invest in timberland. But closely tied to the housing market.
As long as no one building, nobody wants your timber. And sending it to China is spensive.
Soros probably knows and had a hand in it.
Timber land is a good investment for when the SHTF. Lots of wildlife and wood for heat and cooking.
There is more to timber than the housing market, most private investors will be buying hardwood timber land in much smaller chunks than the lumber industry.
> “Now, if only my safe principle doesnt devalue to make it worthless...”
That’s the real question is what currency is safe/stable? The answer is really none longterm as they are all fiat.
Even gold is a gamble because the physical market for gold is oversold, more than is advertised so there is no guarantee gold would ever be delivered. But then who wants to take delivery of gold?
Farms? Ranches? Maybe, but one might as well bunker down as a survivalist.
Hardwood timber can be worth far more than many think, and it doesn't take a huge chunk of it to score a bunch of cash.
It can be an LLC side business that takes very little time to manage and can be used to write-off expenses when you do your taxes on your main source of income.