Skip to comments.Richard Russell: Stay In Cash, Something, Something 'BIG' Is Heading Our Way
Posted on 05/24/2012 6:20:58 AM PDT by blam
Richard Russell: Stay In Cash, Something, Something 'BIG' Is Heading Our Way
May 24, 2012, 6:34 AM
Bearish newsletter guy Richard Russell finds the market action to be very strange and ominous.
As of today's closing, Dow down 14 out of 16 sessions! This is one you can tell your kids about. And still no collapse in breadth, and still no crash. The only thing I can make out of it is that a lot of people are "standing their ground".
Maybe it's just the Dow that is dying, and the rest of the market is OK. But don't you believe it. The Dow represents the manufacturing capabilities of the United States, and when you see the Dow doing what it's doing, you can be sure that somewhere ahead business is going to take it on the chin.
By the way, on May 1st, the Dow recorded a high, but that high was not confirmed by the Transports. The two Averages then plunged below their April lows, delivering a bona fide Dow Theory bear signal. So yes, this is a continuation of the bear market. But it's starting out in a stranger way than any bear market I've ever seen. Maybe the experts are so fascinated with the Dow and Facebook that they're not taking in what's happening.
Stay in cash, because I intuit that something BIG is heading our way. After all these years following markets, sometimes I have the feeling that I've seen everything. But not this time. Hey, would you believe the Dow could go down 14 out of 16 sessions, and people would still be complacent? There are so many potentially bearish scenarios in the wind that my head is spinning.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
"At one point yesterday, the Dow was down 170, but in the final hour of the day, stocks made a stirring come back and ended basically flat."
Nobody really knows.
How about Europe collapsing? Iran going nuclear? Israel blasting Iran? Natural disasters of a variety of shapes and sizes?
I have never felt so uncertain about the future in my entire life.
blam, just a note to let you know I appreciate the business articles you post.
I think the powers that be are very much vested in keeping the charade going until Election Day.
Then, all bets are off.
The fire bells are going off everywhere, and our political class is saying, go back to sleeeeeeeeeeeeeep. Snzzzzzzzzz.
Just hang on 6 more months!
Not so much complacency as, depending on your status, you are either trapped because the prospect of clearing out means retirement accounts being liqiudated and huge tax hits, or you are a player who keeps pushing it up and turning around to take a profit at week’s end. I notice that the trend of consistent up-ticks through Wdnesday/Tursday, then sell offs on Friday/Monday, has slowed and it seems more tentative. Makes me think the big players know that the golden goose is ready for the dinner table and they don’t want to get caught when the inevitable happens. Moved all my retirements into Money Market to preserve the principle - 2 months ago whn it was about 12, 900 - it went up over 13,00 for a blip, hovered around 12,900 for a while and has declined enough to make me sure I didn’t screw up. Now, if only my “safe” principle doesn’t devalue to make it worthless...
Interesting. I just moved to a 50% cash position yesterday.
I am not so sure.
Obama won during a meltdown and he may believe he can do so again.
Remember, if all hell is breaking loose (economy collapse here and europe, war with iran, etc) the public rarely changes horses.
This time it’s not just the economy that is melting down. Obama is melting down too.
Today, if I had an extra pile of cash to invest, I would put it in land with timber on it.
There is no way to create more land and timber is a long term investment with a very stable market. Taxes are low on timberland and often a hunting lease can more than pay it all.
The PPT shifted into high gear!
sign me up for 500 shares of Weyerhaeuser
I haven’t followed it lately. It crashed in ‘10.
An easy way to invest in timberland. But closely tied to the housing market.
As long as no one building, nobody wants your timber. And sending it to China is spensive.
Soros probably knows and had a hand in it.
Timber land is a good investment for when the SHTF. Lots of wildlife and wood for heat and cooking.
There is more to timber than the housing market, most private investors will be buying hardwood timber land in much smaller chunks than the lumber industry.
> “Now, if only my safe principle doesnt devalue to make it worthless...”
That’s the real question is what currency is safe/stable? The answer is really none longterm as they are all fiat.
Even gold is a gamble because the physical market for gold is oversold, more than is advertised so there is no guarantee gold would ever be delivered. But then who wants to take delivery of gold?
Farms? Ranches? Maybe, but one might as well bunker down as a survivalist.
Hardwood timber can be worth far more than many think, and it doesn't take a huge chunk of it to score a bunch of cash.
It can be an LLC side business that takes very little time to manage and can be used to write-off expenses when you do your taxes on your main source of income.
Plunge Protection Team?
Or, until the perfect moment before election day. Sometime in October, say.
Government money printing
Yes, I find this section and the following chapter to be helpful for me. But if I have to narrow it down to a single verse, that fits best for me now.
I thought Wererhaeuser had a big push a few years ago to get out of the land owning and focus on timber operations on leased acreage.
A friend of mine bought hundreds of acres from them as they sold property that had been planted with seedlings just a few years before.
>> “Nobody really knows.” <<
Bernanke’s Bull($h!t) traders strike again.
He paid a little under cash value for the farm land and the rest was just bonus.
He sold the hardwood timber for just over the total purchase price for the whole farm.
He now farms the acreage and can sell the whole thing at any time for more than what he paid, and can lease the hunting rights for more than the taxes!
If the house isn't in too bad of shape you can also rent that.
It happens every day for those that study up just a little bit on the value of hardwood timber.
I did something similar with land my Mother-in-Law had.
She was considering an offer to sell it. Asked me about it then turned it over to me to manage.
I sold some of the timber off it for nearly the selling price she was considering.
We actually got more for tall straight pines than the hardwoods when compared by the ton. Trees suitable for power line poles are quite valuable.
Your satisfaction/appreciation is my reward.
You’re very conflicted, aren’t you!
You call it BS, but then take the maximum action.
there is an expert on every corner in Freeper world. I knew somebody would arrive with some info.
I’m not an expert on this topic by any means.
I just had involvement on some Weyerhaeuser property in Western Louisiana. I heard the reduction of their property ownership through purchasers of some of their property, and from a small timber company who I did business with.
Consider it third-hand info from a limited regional source. I’ve never tried to follow the Weyerhaeuser company.
I posted that above to see if anyone would confirm or deny those claims.
i think i prefer oil reserves as a “hard asset” rather than timberland or gold coins. However, Exxon (for example) is a net buyer of oil as they do more production of end products than their drilling allows. Not sure which major is focused more on explor. and development.
Because their refinery operations are more than twice their oil production rates, ExxonMobil actually buys more oil than they produce.
Not sure which major is focused more on explor. and development.
Most define a major oil company as one significantly in all phases of the operation, production and refinery.
A company that focuses only on production is called an independent, regardless of size. The general public may not always use the terms that way, but it is common in the industry.
For example, ConocoPhillips recently spun off their refinery operation into a separate company, called Phillips 66. ConocoPhillips, being only an oil and gas production company, is now considered an "independent".
ConocoPhillips Becomes One of the World's Largest Independent E&P Companies
May 01, 2012
ConocoPhillips today announced that it has completed the spinoff of its downstream businesses to its stockholders. With the completion of this transaction, ConocoPhillips is the world's largest independent exploration and production (E&P) company, based on proved reserves and production of liquids and natural gas.
"ConocoPhillips will truly be unique as an independent E&P company. Our unmatched size, scope and capability position us to compete successfully in this business," said Ryan Lance, chairman and chief executive officer. "With an exclusive focus on exploration and production, we will pursue opportunities and take actions to create value for all our stakeholders. We will emphasize execution and operations excellence, the principles that made us what we are today and that will shape the ConocoPhillips of tomorrow."
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Marathon did the same last year, but both new companies use Marathon in their name. However, they are completely separate.
Prior to ConocoPhillips split, I believe Anadarko was considered the largest independent oil producer.