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Richard Russell: Stay In Cash, Something, Something 'BIG' Is Heading Our Way
TBI ^ | 5-24-2012 | Joe Weisenthal

Posted on 05/24/2012 6:20:58 AM PDT by blam

Richard Russell: Stay In Cash, Something, Something 'BIG' Is Heading Our Way

Joe Weisenthal
May 24, 2012, 6:34 AM

Bearish newsletter guy Richard Russell finds the market action to be very strange and ominous.

As of today's closing, Dow down 14 out of 16 sessions! This is one you can tell your kids about. And still no collapse in breadth, and still no crash. The only thing I can make out of it is that a lot of people are "standing their ground".

Maybe it's just the Dow that is dying, and the rest of the market is OK. But don't you believe it. The Dow represents the manufacturing capabilities of the United States, and when you see the Dow doing what it's doing, you can be sure that somewhere ahead business is going to take it on the chin.

By the way, on May 1st, the Dow recorded a high, but that high was not confirmed by the Transports. The two Averages then plunged below their April lows, delivering a bona fide Dow Theory bear signal. So yes, this is a continuation of the bear market. But it's starting out in a stranger way than any bear market I've ever seen. Maybe the experts are so fascinated with the Dow and Facebook that they're not taking in what's happening.

Stay in cash, because I intuit that something BIG is heading our way. After all these years following markets, sometimes I have the feeling that I've seen everything. But not this time. Hey, would you believe the Dow could go down 14 out of 16 sessions, and people would still be complacent? There are so many potentially bearish scenarios in the wind that my head is spinning.

(snip)

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: crash; djia; economy; markets; stockmarketwarning

1 posted on 05/24/2012 6:21:06 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam
Everybody Was Bewildered By Yesterday's Late Day Rally

"At one point yesterday, the Dow was down 170, but in the final hour of the day, stocks made a stirring come back and ended basically flat."

Why?

Nobody really knows.

2 posted on 05/24/2012 6:28:58 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam
Stay in cash, because I intuit that something BIG is heading our way.

How about Europe collapsing? Iran going nuclear? Israel blasting Iran? Natural disasters of a variety of shapes and sizes?

I have never felt so uncertain about the future in my entire life.

3 posted on 05/24/2012 6:36:45 AM PDT by iceskater (I am a Carnivore Conservative - No peas for me. (h/t N.Theknow))
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To: blam

blam, just a note to let you know I appreciate the business articles you post.

I think the powers that be are very much vested in keeping the charade going until Election Day.

Then, all bets are off.

The fire bells are going off everywhere, and our political class is saying, go back to sleeeeeeeeeeeeeep. Snzzzzzzzzz.


4 posted on 05/24/2012 6:36:54 AM PDT by exit82 (Democrats are the enemies of freedom. Be Andrew Breitbart.)
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To: iceskater
I have never felt so uncertain about the future in my entire life.

John 16:33

5 posted on 05/24/2012 6:37:55 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: blam

Just hang on 6 more months!


6 posted on 05/24/2012 6:41:39 AM PDT by TexasCajun
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To: blam

Not so much complacency as, depending on your status, you are either trapped because the prospect of clearing out means retirement accounts being liqiudated and huge tax hits, or you are a player who keeps pushing it up and turning around to take a profit at week’s end. I notice that the trend of consistent up-ticks through Wdnesday/Tursday, then sell offs on Friday/Monday, has slowed and it seems more tentative. Makes me think the big players know that the golden goose is ready for the dinner table and they don’t want to get caught when the inevitable happens. Moved all my retirements into Money Market to preserve the principle - 2 months ago whn it was about 12, 900 - it went up over 13,00 for a blip, hovered around 12,900 for a while and has declined enough to make me sure I didn’t screw up. Now, if only my “safe” principle doesn’t devalue to make it worthless...


7 posted on 05/24/2012 6:42:40 AM PDT by trebb ("If a man will not work, he should not eat" From 2 Thes 3)
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To: blam

Interesting. I just moved to a 50% cash position yesterday.


8 posted on 05/24/2012 6:45:51 AM PDT by bolobaby
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To: exit82
I think the powers that be are very much vested in keeping the charade going until Election Day.

I am not so sure.

Obama won during a meltdown and he may believe he can do so again.

Remember, if all hell is breaking loose (economy collapse here and europe, war with iran, etc) the public rarely changes horses.

9 posted on 05/24/2012 6:57:28 AM PDT by Erik Latranyi (When religions have to beg the gov't for a waiver, we are already under socialism.)
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To: Erik Latranyi

This time it’s not just the economy that is melting down. Obama is melting down too.


10 posted on 05/24/2012 7:00:31 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (Let me ABOs run loose Lou, let me ABOs run loose! They are of much use Lou, so let me ABOs run loose)
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To: trebb
That is the problem with cash, the Commie bastard in the WH is going to make it worthless with his policies.

Today, if I had an extra pile of cash to invest, I would put it in land with timber on it.

There is no way to create more land and timber is a long term investment with a very stable market. Taxes are low on timberland and often a hunting lease can more than pay it all.

11 posted on 05/24/2012 7:01:26 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: blam
The market jump yesterday afternoon appears to have been caused by two factors; a false rumor of a Euro deposit insurance proposal that came out of the European Summit, and further loose and unsubstantiated talk about the ECB (directly) or the Fed (indirectly) pursuing another LTRO/QE liquidity pump should the European markets arrive at a precipice (as though they weren't already pulling a Thelma and Louise). In other words: more Hopium being smoked, liberally, of course.
12 posted on 05/24/2012 7:28:06 AM PDT by andy58-in-nh (America does not need to be organized: it needs to be liberated.)
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To: blam
Why?

The PPT shifted into high gear!

13 posted on 05/24/2012 7:42:18 AM PDT by Roccus
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To: Beagle8U

sign me up for 500 shares of Weyerhaeuser
symbol WY

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WY&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

I haven’t followed it lately. It crashed in ‘10.
An easy way to invest in timberland. But closely tied to the housing market.

As long as no one building, nobody wants your timber. And sending it to China is spensive.


14 posted on 05/24/2012 7:45:19 AM PDT by campaignPete R-CT (and we are still campaigning for local conservatives in central CT.)
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To: blam

Soros probably knows and had a hand in it.


15 posted on 05/24/2012 7:59:05 AM PDT by bgill
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To: thackney
John 16:33

Comforting passage

16 posted on 05/24/2012 8:01:18 AM PDT by Walmartian (An update is available for this tagline. Click here to download.)
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To: Beagle8U

Timber land is a good investment for when the SHTF. Lots of wildlife and wood for heat and cooking.


17 posted on 05/24/2012 8:03:48 AM PDT by bgill
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To: campaignPete R-CT
I mentioned nothing about buying stock in any company.

There is more to timber than the housing market, most private investors will be buying hardwood timber land in much smaller chunks than the lumber industry.

18 posted on 05/24/2012 8:12:33 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: trebb

> “Now, if only my “safe” principle doesn’t devalue to make it worthless...”

That’s the real question is what currency is safe/stable? The answer is really none longterm as they are all fiat.

Even gold is a gamble because the physical market for gold is oversold, more than is advertised so there is no guarantee gold would ever be delivered. But then who wants to take delivery of gold?

Farms? Ranches? Maybe, but one might as well bunker down as a survivalist.


19 posted on 05/24/2012 8:23:35 AM PDT by Hostage (Be Breitbart!)
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To: bgill
It also can be purchased for the land value only in many cases.

Hardwood timber can be worth far more than many think, and it doesn't take a huge chunk of it to score a bunch of cash.

It can be an LLC side business that takes very little time to manage and can be used to write-off expenses when you do your taxes on your main source of income.

20 posted on 05/24/2012 8:26:25 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: blam
"At one point yesterday, the Dow was down 170, but in the final hour of the day, stocks made a stirring come back and ended basically flat." Why? Nobody really knows.

Plunge Protection Team?

21 posted on 05/24/2012 8:30:10 AM PDT by Menehune56 ("Let them hate so long as they fear" Oderint Dum Metuant), Lucius Accius, (170 BC - 86 BC))
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To: exit82
I think the powers that be are very much vested in keeping the charade going until Election Day.

Or, until the perfect moment before election day. Sometime in October, say.

22 posted on 05/24/2012 8:47:27 AM PDT by Lancey Howard
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To: blam

Government money printing


23 posted on 05/24/2012 9:12:04 AM PDT by george76 (Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
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To: Walmartian
John 16:33

Comforting passage

Yes, I find this section and the following chapter to be helpful for me. But if I have to narrow it down to a single verse, that fits best for me now.

24 posted on 05/24/2012 9:14:22 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: campaignPete R-CT
An easy way to invest in timberland.

I thought Wererhaeuser had a big push a few years ago to get out of the land owning and focus on timber operations on leased acreage.

A friend of mine bought hundreds of acres from them as they sold property that had been planted with seedlings just a few years before.

25 posted on 05/24/2012 9:20:27 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: blam

>> “Nobody really knows.” <<

.
Bernanke’s Bull($h!t) traders strike again.
.


26 posted on 05/24/2012 9:30:31 AM PDT by editor-surveyor (Freepers: Not as smart as I'd hoped they were.)
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To: thackney
A farmer friend of mine bought a small farm, about 80 acres, that had 20 acres of hardwood timber and a old house and barn.

He paid a little under cash value for the farm land and the rest was just bonus.

He sold the hardwood timber for just over the total purchase price for the whole farm.

He now farms the acreage and can sell the whole thing at any time for more than what he paid, and can lease the hunting rights for more than the taxes!

If the house isn't in too bad of shape you can also rent that.

It happens every day for those that study up just a little bit on the value of hardwood timber.

27 posted on 05/24/2012 11:25:00 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: Beagle8U

I did something similar with land my Mother-in-Law had.

She was considering an offer to sell it. Asked me about it then turned it over to me to manage.

I sold some of the timber off it for nearly the selling price she was considering.

We actually got more for tall straight pines than the hardwoods when compared by the ton. Trees suitable for power line poles are quite valuable.


28 posted on 05/24/2012 11:43:58 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: exit82
"blam, just a note to let you know I appreciate the business articles you post. "

You're welcome.

Your satisfaction/appreciation is my reward.

29 posted on 05/24/2012 3:06:21 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam
I have grown old listening to all of the B/S on this site, every week it is a new collapse coming, a new wave of terrible news, and after all of those years, nothing has happened. I took all of my ready cash, and bought a safe and lots and lots of gold and silver. No matter what happens they will always be worth something.
30 posted on 05/24/2012 3:22:35 PM PDT by BooBoo1000 (I don't know what the future holds, but I know who holds my future.,)
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To: BooBoo1000

You’re very conflicted, aren’t you!

You call it BS, but then take the maximum action.


31 posted on 05/24/2012 3:30:24 PM PDT by editor-surveyor (Freepers: Not as smart as I'd hoped they were.)
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To: thackney

there is an expert on every corner in Freeper world. I knew somebody would arrive with some info.


32 posted on 05/24/2012 4:53:42 PM PDT by campaignPete R-CT (and we are still campaigning for local conservatives in central CT.)
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To: campaignPete R-CT

I’m not an expert on this topic by any means.

I just had involvement on some Weyerhaeuser property in Western Louisiana. I heard the reduction of their property ownership through purchasers of some of their property, and from a small timber company who I did business with.

Consider it third-hand info from a limited regional source. I’ve never tried to follow the Weyerhaeuser company.

I posted that above to see if anyone would confirm or deny those claims.


33 posted on 05/25/2012 5:40:07 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

i think i prefer oil reserves as a “hard asset” rather than timberland or gold coins. However, Exxon (for example) is a net buyer of oil as they do more production of end products than their drilling allows. Not sure which major is focused more on explor. and development.


34 posted on 05/25/2012 3:47:24 PM PDT by campaignPete R-CT (and we are still campaigning for local conservatives in central CT.)
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To: campaignPete R-CT
Exxon (for example) is a net buyer of oil as they do more production of end products than their drilling allows.

Because their refinery operations are more than twice their oil production rates, ExxonMobil actually buys more oil than they produce.

Not sure which major is focused more on explor. and development.

Most define a major oil company as one significantly in all phases of the operation, production and refinery.

A company that focuses only on production is called an independent, regardless of size. The general public may not always use the terms that way, but it is common in the industry.

For example, ConocoPhillips recently spun off their refinery operation into a separate company, called Phillips 66. ConocoPhillips, being only an oil and gas production company, is now considered an "independent".

ConocoPhillips Becomes One of the World's Largest Independent E&P Companies
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/conocophillips-becomes-one-of-the-worlds-largest-independent-ep-companies-2012-05-01
May 01, 2012

ConocoPhillips today announced that it has completed the spinoff of its downstream businesses to its stockholders. With the completion of this transaction, ConocoPhillips is the world's largest independent exploration and production (E&P) company, based on proved reserves and production of liquids and natural gas.

"ConocoPhillips will truly be unique as an independent E&P company. Our unmatched size, scope and capability position us to compete successfully in this business," said Ryan Lance, chairman and chief executive officer. "With an exclusive focus on exploration and production, we will pursue opportunities and take actions to create value for all our stakeholders. We will emphasize execution and operations excellence, the principles that made us what we are today and that will shape the ConocoPhillips of tomorrow."

- - - - -

Marathon did the same last year, but both new companies use Marathon in their name. However, they are completely separate.

http://www.forbes.com/2011/01/13/marathon-oil-split-markets-equities-sands.html

Prior to ConocoPhillips split, I believe Anadarko was considered the largest independent oil producer.

35 posted on 05/26/2012 6:38:56 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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