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(Real Clear Politics) General Election: Romney vs. Obama (Romney Losing by 1.9%)
Real Clear Politics ^ | May 24, 2012 | rcp

Posted on 05/25/2012 5:28:50 AM PDT by xzins

Poll Date Sample Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread

RCP Average 5/9 - 5/23 -- 45.5 43.6 Obama +1.9

Rasmussen Tracking 5/21 - 5/23 1500 LV 45 44 Obama +1

Gallup Tracking 5/17 - 5/23 3050 RV 47 46 Obama +1

ABC News/Wash Post 5/17 - 5/20 874 RV 49 46 Obama +3

NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 5/16 - 5/20 RV 47 43 Obama +4

FOX News 5/13 - 5/15 913 RV 46 39 Obama +7

Mason-Dixon 5/10 - 5/14 1000 LV 44 47 Romney +3

Wash Times/JZ Analytics 5/11 - 5/12 800 LV 43 44 Romney +1

IBD/CSM/TIPP 5/9 - 5/16 778 RV 43 40 Obama +3

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: elections; obama; romney; romneytruthfile
To make matters worse, Romney is losing electoral tally by 225 to 170. Obama needs 45 electoral votes to hit the 270 victory mark, and is leading in toss-up states of Ohio, Michigan, and Virginia which total 47. He's also behind in Wisconsin making it 57.

Still too close and too far out (5 months) to call, but Obama is up in the RCP's Likely Voter polls as well as the Registered Voter polls.

1 posted on 05/25/2012 5:28:54 AM PDT by xzins
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To: xzins

Polls, schmolls...none are really worth anything yet. They won’t really be valuable until Sept/Oct...and then I’d likely only trust Rasmussen.


2 posted on 05/25/2012 5:31:05 AM PDT by woweeitsme
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To: All; P-Marlowe; cripplecreek; cva66snipe; Elvina; greyfoxx39; Hilda; ImpBill; kabar; ...

If Romney is down by 3+ points at the end of October, I would tell conservatives not to waste their votes on the hand-jammed pick of the GOP-e and to vote the conservative candidate Virgil Goode of the Constitution Party in order to send a resounding message.


3 posted on 05/25/2012 5:31:37 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True Supporters of Our Troops Pray they Win every Fight!)
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To: xzins

not to worry

a plain vanilla RINO VP will add energy to the GOP ticket

McCain’s former campaign advisors are all over this right now, steering the Romneybots into not repeating the “Palin mistake”

sarc


4 posted on 05/25/2012 5:32:25 AM PDT by silverleaf (Funny how all the people who are for abortion are already born)
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To: xzins

Obama looks to be in the mid 40s. Not a good place to be for a candidate with no record to run on. The campaign against him has not even begun in earnest. Can he win? Yes. Will he? Unlikely. My only concern is the electoral votes in the midwest. If Obama concentrates all his money on Ohio, can he win it by a hair. That is a distinct possibility.


5 posted on 05/25/2012 5:35:37 AM PDT by ilgipper
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To: silverleaf

I’m from Ohio, and from Portman’s old congressional district, and I like the man. He’s solid on life, on intelligence, and conservative record. Like everyone he has his blips in the record.

However, he isn’t exciting. He doesn’t bring in any new constituency, and he doesn’t have deep pockets that I know of.

So, if Romney has to gamble, then his gamble should be on Rubio, but I think Rubio smells blood in the water and doesn’t want to ruin his future prospects.


6 posted on 05/25/2012 5:36:47 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True Supporters of Our Troops Pray they Win every Fight!)
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To: xzins

To make matters worse, Romney is losing electoral tally by 225 to 170.


That is the key stat as we elect on the basis of EC votes not popular votes. But popular votes do indicate acceptance.


7 posted on 05/25/2012 5:37:54 AM PDT by deport (.............God Bless Texas............)
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To: xzins

Romney and the GOP MUST go over Obama like there’s no tomorrow . Otherwise, it’s his to lose.


8 posted on 05/25/2012 5:38:21 AM PDT by abercrombie_guy_38
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To: xzins
No fan of Romney but it is astounding to me that Obama, with all of his blatant failures and the poor state of the U.S. economy is leading in the polls, even by a few percent. He should be trailing Romney by 10 points, at least.

If the citizens of America are too apathetic and distracted to realize what a disaster this man has been - assuming they have no clue as to his Marxist political philosophy - and re-elect him in November, this country will have, in effect, committed national suicide.

This frustrates me and millions of other Americans who know we'll all go down with the ship that was once a great hope for the world and one of the most successful nations that was ever formed. All because too many took too much for granted, lost sight of the truth and allowed our internal enemies to distract us, lie to us with complete impunity and, in effect, destroy us while we paid them to do it. God help America.

9 posted on 05/25/2012 5:39:12 AM PDT by Jim Scott
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To: ilgipper

I’m from Ohio, and EVERY election in Ohio depends on voter turnout from the northeast of the state versus the south/southwest of the state.

If Cleveland turns out big, it is always a cliffhanger.

Obama might have hurt himself with black ministers with the gay marriage thing, but in final analysis, I don’t expect blacks to desert him.


10 posted on 05/25/2012 5:39:29 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True Supporters of Our Troops Pray they Win every Fight!)
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To: xzins

I am sorry a lot of the polls aboved cited oversampled democrats, every one knows that. Meaning that 0bumma is down about 5-points.


11 posted on 05/25/2012 5:43:02 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: xzins

AFAIAC, Romney needs to drop out now and stop stealing votes from Virgil Goode.


12 posted on 05/25/2012 5:43:13 AM PDT by Yashcheritsiy (A conservative voting for Romney is like a chicken voting for Col. Sanders)
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To: xzins

Romney is the chosen LOSER by the DNC, GOPe, and MSM
to continue Obama’s reign as Tyrant,
OR to create the a new, equivalent Tyrant.

What would be the likelihood that conservatives
would make their candidate the author of
BOTH gay marriage AND RomneyCARE/ObamaCARE
who, in his guise as Gov.Loser.Romney also tanked
the entire Mass. economy (to 48th in US re: job growth).

BOTTOM LINE:
Romney has no chance — and the MSM
has not even BEGUN to release its stored material.


13 posted on 05/25/2012 5:44:11 AM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: xzins

If we factor out RV polls and just look at Likely voter polls, then it appears Romney is leading by an average of 3.

Rasmussen Tracking 5/21 - 5/23 1500 LV 45 44 Obama +1

Mason-Dixon 5/10 - 5/14 1000 LV 44 47 Romney +3

Wash Times/JZ Analytics 5/11 - 5/12 800 LV 43 44 Romney +1

The average is watering down the likely voter results.

However, if we look at sequence it could appear that Romney peaked about 5/14 and fell sharply this week. But these being different polls such an observation is not valid.


14 posted on 05/25/2012 5:45:36 AM PDT by Raycpa
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To: xzins

I imagine polling will be neck and neck until election day. As a country, we’re pretty equally divided between the givers and the takers. Plus, I believe gas prices are a major influencing factor and right now they’re dropping which only helps Obama. Gas falls below $3 a gallon and people will forget all about gay marriage.


15 posted on 05/25/2012 5:45:50 AM PDT by Drew68 (I WILL vote to defeat Barack Hussein Obama!)
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To: xzins
Obama might have hurt himself with black ministers with the gay marriage thing, but in final analysis, I don’t expect blacks to desert him.

Agree, it will never happen.

16 posted on 05/25/2012 5:46:32 AM PDT by Calliecat
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To: Jim Scott
No fan of Romney but it is astounding to me that Obama, with all of his blatant failures and the poor state of the U.S. economy is leading in the polls, even by a few percent. He should be trailing Romney by 10 points, at least.

It doesn't surprise me.

Romney does not present much contrast to Obama - and people know this. People are not excited by him. He doesn't give people any really good reasons to vote FOR him, he just serves as the placeholder for voting AGAINST Obama.

But once we leave the cocoon of Free Republic and get out into the real world, as much as many people may not really like Obama all that much, there isn't a sense of "ANYBODY BUT OBAMA!!!!!" that pervades hard-core conservative sites. In short, most people really are not going to be fired up ONLY by the prospect of voting against Obama. Perhaps they should, and many of them will end up doing so, but it's not the psychological attractor for them that it is for FReepers.

Romney just doesn't excite people, since he doesn't present much difference from Obama, other than a few superficialities. Picking a RINO Veep is only going to make that worse. The conservative base has little actual affinity for him, and the independents and the "middle" simply don't see any ideological or practical leadership in the man. People can talk about his "bid'ness experience" all they want, but the fact remains that when you look at Mitt Romney, the average person sees an empty suit with spectacular hair.

17 posted on 05/25/2012 5:53:37 AM PDT by Yashcheritsiy (A conservative voting for Romney is like a chicken voting for Col. Sanders)
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To: xzins

Real Clear Politics average polling is the worst place to gather info. There is no bench mark to qualify any poll in their average. If some reputable name puts out a bogus poll, it is added to the average.
Stay away from this site if you are poll watching. Stick with one or two polling firms that use likely voters.


18 posted on 05/25/2012 5:55:29 AM PDT by WILLIALAL
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To: Calliecat
Looking at the data, the Gallop poll of >3000 ‘registered voters’ showed it at a virtual tie (Obama +1). That a relatively large poll of registered voters shows it as a tie at this point is bad news for Obama, no matter how they try to spin it. Gallop had Carter up +8 over Reagan in May of 1980.

My gut tells me that Obama will lose by a substantial margin, but anything can happen with a volatile electorate.

19 posted on 05/25/2012 6:05:41 AM PDT by pieceofthepuzzle
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To: xzins

We tried to warn the gop/e.

LLS


20 posted on 05/25/2012 6:32:52 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (Don't Tread On Me)
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To: xzins
If Romney is down by 3+ points at the end of October, I would tell conservatives not to waste their votes on the hand-jammed pick of the GOP-e and to vote the conservative candidate Virgil Goode of the Constitution Party in order to send a resounding message.

Chuck Baldwin, the last Constitution Party candidate, garnered .15% of the vote nationally. For a moment, let's assume Virgil Goode catches fire and increases the Constitution party tally by 500%; that still leaves him with a resounding .90% of all votes cast, or somewhat less than 1,000,000 votes out of a likely total of at least 120,000,000 votes cast nationally. What kind of a "protest" is that going to register?

As regards the RCP averages: if you do an average of some really bad polls, you get really bad results. The Washington Post/ABC News polls, for example, assumed a voter affiliation breakdown that was 32% Democrat, 22% Republican; The actual turnout in 2010 was 35% Democrat, 35% Republican. That poll was obviously manipulated to produce a desired result, yet RCP includes it in their average.

21 posted on 05/25/2012 6:36:18 AM PDT by TonyInOhio (Ave crux spes unica)
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To: Perdogg
a lot of the polls aboved cited oversampled democrats, every one knows that.

Exactly... The only polls I trust are:

Rasmussen (Romney +1 - likely voters)

Gallup (Obama +1 - registered- will convert to likely soon)

Mason Dixon (Romney +3 - likely- good overall track record)

Battleground (Romney up slightly but dated poll - bipartisan)

Meaning that 0bumma is down about 5-points.

Maybe... when factoring in leaners or undecided. My view is Romney is up by 2-3 overall among likely.

22 posted on 05/25/2012 6:50:10 AM PDT by NE Cons (Huge Palin Fan. Was a Hard-Core Perry supporter. Now Hard-Core ABO)
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To: TonyInOhio
And most of those votes will be in VA... Where Romney has to win

What kind of a message does it send if Obama wins in a blowout? He, and the media, will claim a complete mandate to push his soc down our throats non-stop.

23 posted on 05/25/2012 6:52:16 AM PDT by NE Cons (Huge Palin Fan. Was a Hard-Core Perry supporter. Now Hard-Core ABO)
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To: xzins

>> Obama is up in the RCP’s Likely Voter polls as well as the Registered Voter polls <<

Wrong, wrong, wrong. The average Romney lead for the three LV polls is 1.67%.

Moreover, if we take the grand average for ALL of these polls, LV’s plus RV’s, Øbama’s support currently stands at only 45.5%. Therefore, given the rule of thumb that the undecideds usually break about two-to-one against the incumbent, IMHO these polls are forecasting a 53-47 victory for Romney.


24 posted on 05/25/2012 7:05:53 AM PDT by Hawthorn
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To: Calliecat
Obama might have hurt himself with black ministers with the gay marriage thing, but in final analysis, I don’t expect blacks to desert him.

Agree, it will never happen.

I agree that they will not vote for Romney. But they might just stay home over the gay marriage issue, at least a percentage of them. And Obama requires a huge turnout from blacks and young people to have a chance - two groups that traditionally do not turn out in big numbers, but did so in the last election for Obama. If they return to their usual voter turnout pattern, Obama is toast.

25 posted on 05/25/2012 7:14:49 AM PDT by CA Conservative (Texan by birth, Californian by circumstance)
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To: xzins

I’m more concerned with conservatives taking then Senate than the White House.


26 posted on 05/25/2012 7:40:39 AM PDT by The Duke
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To: ilgipper
"If Obama concentrates all his money on Ohio, can he win it by a hair."

Now initially on point you've surmised their strategy because, well, that's what they've said their strategy is -- the Kerry '04 map -- which leads to Ohio as the must-have.

But pinning their hopes there will get Bobo beat because it will come at the expense of losing IA and/or WI and/or some combo of the Intermountain West.

But to stick with the original idea, with the Southeast in hand and with just those 2 Rust Belt flips, Mittens could still lose OH, CO, and NM and still win.

But we all know wherever FL and VA go, that's where OH will go too.

I think Axelrot will eventually relent to Messina and realize Bobo has to focus completely on retaining IA & WI and the entirety of the Rust Belt, and still find a way to keep NV, CO, NM, because he's going to lose the Southeast (FL, VA, NC, et al) and OH.

What looks like the Battle for Ohio on the surface is really a fight for the Intermountain West. And oops, that's Mormon country.

27 posted on 05/25/2012 8:31:14 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (=)
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To: Drew68
"Plus, I believe gas prices are a major influencing factor and right now they’re dropping which only helps Obama."

Until +.20 jump yesterday for the holiday weekend. And when the local snooze called 'em up, they blamed the wholesalers -- and of course that was enough for the snooze! Make another phone call? Why bother!

28 posted on 05/25/2012 8:34:42 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (=)
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To: WILLIALAL
"Stick with one or two polling firms that use likely voters."

And under that criteria, Morris' poll is atop the poll heap until someone else undertakes a mammoth 6K of Likely Voters...

"From May 5-11, 2012, I conducted a survey of 6,000 likely voters. On such a mammoth sample, the margin of error is less than 1 percent. I found that Romney has amassed a sizable lead over Obama of 51-42, far in excess of what published polling and surveys of registered — as opposed to likely — voters are indicating." -- dickmorris.com

And you'll note Bobo's people haven't been the same since this Morris poll...unhinged, if you will. Even moreso than the MDS miscreants.

29 posted on 05/25/2012 9:00:39 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (=)
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To: Yashcheritsiy; All

Romney does not present much contrast to Obama - and people know this. People are not excited by him. He doesn't give people any really good reasons to vote FOR him, he just serves as the placeholder for voting AGAINST Obama.

Agreed. Wholeheartedly. And, to your earlier point, Virgil Goode accomplishes both goals: he fills the role of ABO, *and* gives the voters someone to vote FOR. It's a win-win if only conservatives and republicans alike could see it. But alas, some people view republicanism like a country club, and they simply must be a member.


30 posted on 05/25/2012 9:33:51 AM PDT by so_real ( "The Congress of the United States recommends and approves the Holy Bible for use in all schools.")
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To: so_real
"And, to your earlier point, Virgil Goode accomplishes both goals: he fills the role of ABO, *and* gives the voters someone to vote FOR."

IF you live in one of the 17 states where he's on the ballot...

31 posted on 05/25/2012 9:54:06 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (Not mine.)
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To: xzins

I am not voting for Virgil Goode to send a message. I am voting for him because out of the 3 people running, he is the best. Romney has little influence on whether I vote for Goode or not. Romney and Obama are basically twins in most issues.


32 posted on 05/25/2012 10:19:51 AM PDT by napscoordinator (VOTE FOR NEWT!!!!)
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To: StAnDeliver; so_real
IF you live in one of the 17 states where he's on the ballot...

Give us a break. The Constitution Party was on the ballot in 37 states in 2008...shooting for 40 this time around: Constitution Party’s Pres Nominee Hopes to be on Ballot in 40 States

I would also venture to stay in those 10 other states that it won't make much difference if you voted for Romney or not...

If those are liberal states, Obama will win, anyway. (Plus not enough FREEPERs to swing votes in most states, anyway)

33 posted on 05/25/2012 10:20:12 AM PDT by Colofornian (Mom when I grow up, I want 2B like Ike. Mom when I grow up, I want 2B a god f rom Kolob like Mitt.)
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To: napscoordinator; P-Marlowe; Alamo-Girl; betty boop; Jim Robinson
I was a Perry supporter, then Newt, and then Santorum. I'm supporting Goode because he's the only conservative running. So, for ME, I'm voting for him in any case.

HOWEVER, if some ABO conservative who is supporting Romney only because he's been shoved down conservative throats gets to Oct 31 and sees Romney down 3+ points (approximately the MOE in a large sample such as right before the election) in the polls, then it makes sense for that guy not to WASTE his vote on Romney. Why vote for a liberal who is losing?

Instead, that ABO conservative would send a powerful message by voting for a real conservative, Goode, rather than waste a vote on a losing Romney.

By their own logic, the only reason they are voting for Romney is because he has a “better” chance than any 3rd party or write-in. If Romney is losing by a significant difference at election time, then it makes sense to NOT waste a vote, but instead to send a conservative, COUNTABLE message by voting for Goode.

The ABO’s can, of course, set their own threshold. Maybe they want to use 5+ points or 7+ points. If it's 7+, I guarantee that Romney is losing.

34 posted on 05/25/2012 10:53:22 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True Supporters of Our Troops Pray they Win every Fight!)
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To: StAnDeliver; Drew68; P-Marlowe; wmfights

I believe OPEC manipulates gas prices for profit and politics. They were very high a month ago, and they are now easing. They took in a lot of money. (I also believe OPEC has been smart enough over the years to have their fingers in ALL the various methods of making money from their oil, from pumping and selling by the barrel all the way to selling at the pump to speculating to selling short to whatever.)

They support Obama because Obama bows to the King of Mecca.

At the same time, they do want their profits, so they’ll incite ups and downs and bring prices down at opportune times to benefit their obedient obama.

I think this is obvious, but for others I’m tin foil and conspiracy 101.


35 posted on 05/25/2012 10:59:21 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True Supporters of Our Troops Pray they Win every Fight!)
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To: silverleaf

PALIN is the only choice


36 posted on 05/25/2012 11:48:51 AM PDT by The Wizard (Madam President is my President now and in the future)
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To: xzins

Newt would have been way ahead by now. Rick Santorum must be happy


37 posted on 05/25/2012 12:27:19 PM PDT by tsowellfan
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To: xzins; napscoordinator; P-Marlowe; Alamo-Girl; Jim Robinson; Jeff Head; ThirstyMan; SoConPubbie; ...
Instead, that ABO conservative would send a powerful message by voting for a real conservative, Goode, rather than waste a vote on a losing Romney.

Why do you say Romney will lose?

My hunch is that, after next Tuesday's Texas primary, Romney will have sewn up the necessary votes to make him the successful GOP candidate. At that point, do not expect any "surprises" out of the nominating convention in August. Do not expect any back-room maneuvers to replace him on the ticket in the general election in November. (By the way, why do you expect a convention run by the GOP to intervene in, and change the verdict rendered by voters in the primaries? It is simply not going to happen.)

In any case, the good man Virgil Goode — the rock-ribbed conservative — hasn't got a chance of defeating Obama in the general election anyway. Short of divine intervention, of course.

Yet I expect our good Lord leaves this kind of electoral business to us, We the People.

You seem to want to cast a taint on the "ABO" crowd. That there is something deeply immoral about people trying to remove this tyrant — that would be Obama — from office.

I find myself located in the ABO company. This must make me a very bad person, on your view.

And yet, for me the bottom line is: I can no longer stand to live in a political society premised on outright, daily lies and spin of the real situation in which America finds herself nowadays, under Obama and the thugs that surround and enable him. If Obama does not want to deliberately destroy the country we know and love, you could have fooled me: His policies — which he constantly misrepresents (i.e., lies about) — are designed to do just that.

In conclusion, Obama is a serial, pathological liar. He is trying to create a "second reality" out of sheer rhetoric....

I'd vote for my cat before I'd ever vote for him. And I won't waste my vote on Virgil Goode — who hasn't got a snowball's chance in Hell of being elected President of the United States — just to send a "message" to the GOP "establishment."

Secure the well-being of the country first. Though you have demonized him and constructed an unrecognizeable caricature of the man — in my view from Massachusetts — Romney has the right stuff to at least stop the bleeding. Then we can deal with the feckless and seemingly increasingly unprincipled GOP establishment.

In short, if the boat is sinking, bail the boat first. A sunken boat only means drowned crew and passengers.... And that sort of thing is "forever."

FWIW JMHO.

38 posted on 05/25/2012 3:00:30 PM PDT by betty boop (We are led to believe a lie when we see with, and not through the eye. — William Blake)
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To: Calliecat

To go vote Republican this year, no. But many could sit out.


39 posted on 05/25/2012 3:35:25 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (Let me ABOs run loose Lou, let me ABOs run loose! They are of much use Lou, so let me ABOs run loose)
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To: betty boop; xzins; napscoordinator; P-Marlowe; Alamo-Girl; Jim Robinson; Jeff Head; ThirstyMan; ...
You seem to want to cast a taint on the "ABO" crowd. That there is something deeply immoral about people trying to remove this tyrant — that would be Obama — from office. I find myself located in the ABO company. This must make me a very bad person, on your view.

ALL: "ABO" is simply a euphemism for a (potential) Romney voter, or a Romney supporter/advocate, or a Romneybot troll [those are 3 separate categories of "aid and abetting")

How do we know that?

Because usually when we suggest -- say, a Virgil Goode as an "ABO" alternative, it's met with some measure of displeasure by the euphemistic "ABO" company...meaning, it's not REALLY "ABO." (It's Romney ONLY)

40 posted on 05/25/2012 3:43:57 PM PDT by Colofornian (Mom when I grow up, I want 2B like Ike. Mom when I grow up, I want 2B a god f rom Kolob like Mitt.)
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To: betty boop
Well said, betty.

I agree and have stated pretty much the same reasoning on my own site:

WHY I WILL VOTE FOR ROMNEY IF HE WINS THE GOP NOMINATION

41 posted on 05/25/2012 3:48:59 PM PDT by Jeff Head (Freedom is not free, never has been, never will be (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: xzins

I think Romney will win but the polls are a reflection of a country that has half of the citizens pulling the wagon and half riding in the wagon. Unless this changes America will continue on it’s inexorable path toward socialism and eventual collapse whether Romney wins or not.


42 posted on 05/25/2012 3:51:45 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (.)
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To: tsowellfan

Newt can not get elected dog catcher. I would find a different windmill to tilt at Sancho.


43 posted on 05/25/2012 3:54:57 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (.)
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To: betty boop

“When I began entering into the give and take of legislative bargaining in Sacramento, a lot of the most radical conservatives who had supported me during the election didn’t like it.

“Compromise” was a dirty word to them and they wouldn’t face the fact that we couldn’t get all of what we wanted today. They wanted all or nothing and they wanted it all at once. If you don’t get it all, some said, don’t take anything.

I’d learned while negotiating union contracts that you seldom got everything you asked for. And I agreed with FDR, who said in 1933: ‘I have no expectations of making a hit every time I come to bat. What I seek is the highest possible batting average.’

If you got seventy-five or eighty percent of what you were asking for, I say, you take it and fight for the rest later, and that’s what I told these radical conservatives who never got used to it”.

Ronald Reagan on politics and compromise from his autobiography


44 posted on 05/25/2012 4:22:20 PM PDT by ThirstyMan
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To: betty boop

Hi Sister Betty. There isn’t anything in your response that would indicate you keyed in on what I thought I wrote. Perhaps I expressed myself so poorly that it wasn’t clear. Let me try to be more clear. Hopefully, I’ll do better this time.

There is a hypothetical in it. IF (note the “if”) Romney is losing by a significant MOE at the end of October, then he’s going down.

Why would an ABO...who’s only voting for Romney because he/she is forced to by virtue of no better candidate...vote for Romney if Romney is losing by a statistically significant margin?

Why vote AGAINST one’s principles at that point?

There actually would be no good reason for doing so. It would be better to let the GOP-e know they messed this one up by NOT voting for their hand-jammed candidate. Instead, a vote for Goode would be a protest vote that could actually be counted.

As you can see, Romney has an extremely difficult electoral college path to victory. That, of course, is the real contest with the popular polls being only a reflection of broad sentiment. Obama, on the other hand, has simply to put Ohio, Michigan and either Virginia or Wisconsin in his column for a victory. Right now RCP has him leading in those states. Two of them, Michigan and Wisconsin are fairly reliable blue states.

Ohio is a state that has a history of voting with the winner. I believe that for republicans Ohio has proven to be a must. No republican has ever won, iirc, if they lose Ohio. If Romney loses Ohio, then he loses the election.

So, let me encourage conservatives again...those in the ABO boat...IF IF IF Romney is losing by a statistically significant margin on Oct 31 to send a message by voting for Virgil Goode. What is a statistically significant margin? It is the MOE if one is speaking mathematically. That will be about 3-4% in a large national sample.

However, ABO voters can determine themselves what margin lets them know that Romney is in big trouble. Surely, most would agree that a 5% margin deficit 2-3 days before the election is a really bad sign. I know there are those who deny the applicability of polls, or their fairness, or their accuracy, but experience has taught me that they are a reasonable reflection of what’s taking place in the electorate.

I hope I’ve done a better job of explaining myself with this post. If not, let me know, and I’ll try again. The key is the IF.


45 posted on 05/25/2012 7:53:52 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True Supporters of Our Troops Pray they Win every Fight!)
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To: deport

To make matters worse, Romney is losing electoral tally by 227 to 170.

That is the key stat as we elect on the basis of EC votes not popular votes. But popular votes do indicate acceptance.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Ah, but you are neglecting the trend.

A week ago, it was Obama 253, Romney 170.

Since then, WI (10) and MI (16) have moved from “Leans Obama” to “toss-up”.

Plus, I think they should move AZ (11) and MO (10) to “Leans Romney” from “Tossup”. That would make it 225-191.

From 191, add:

FL - 29
VA - 13
NC - 15
IA - 6

That’s 254. Add one of PA (20), OH (18), or MI (16), and Bong-Boy is gone.


46 posted on 05/25/2012 8:21:02 PM PDT by Eccl 10:2
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To: xzins

Aside from a couple recent Rasmussen polls every poll of likely voters (including a Rasmussen in between the 2 that showed Obama up) have showed Romney up.

With the undecided vote expected to break against Obama I’m confident Romney would win narrowly if the election was today, but it’s not today.


47 posted on 05/29/2012 1:46:10 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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