(Real Clear Politics) General Election: Romney vs. Obama (Romney Losing by 1.9%)

Well said, betty.

I agree and have stated pretty much the same reasoning on my own site:

WHY I WILL VOTE FOR ROMNEY IF HE WINS THE GOP NOMINATION

I think Romney will win but the polls are a reflection of a country that has half of the citizens pulling the wagon and half riding in the wagon. Unless this changes America will continue on it’s inexorable path toward socialism and eventual collapse whether Romney wins or not.

Newt can not get elected dog catcher. I would find a different windmill to tilt at Sancho.

“When I began entering into the give and take of legislative bargaining in Sacramento, a lot of the most radical conservatives who had supported me during the election didn’t like it.

“Compromise” was a dirty word to them and they wouldn’t face the fact that we couldn’t get all of what we wanted today. They wanted all or nothing and they wanted it all at once. If you don’t get it all, some said, don’t take anything.

I’d learned while negotiating union contracts that you seldom got everything you asked for. And I agreed with FDR, who said in 1933: ‘I have no expectations of making a hit every time I come to bat. What I seek is the highest possible batting average.’

If you got seventy-five or eighty percent of what you were asking for, I say, you take it and fight for the rest later, and that’s what I told these radical conservatives who never got used to it”.

Ronald Reagan on politics and compromise from his autobiography

Hi Sister Betty. There isn’t anything in your response that would indicate you keyed in on what I thought I wrote. Perhaps I expressed myself so poorly that it wasn’t clear. Let me try to be more clear. Hopefully, I’ll do better this time.

There is a hypothetical in it. IF (note the “if”) Romney is losing by a significant MOE at the end of October, then he’s going down.

Why would an ABO...who’s only voting for Romney because he/she is forced to by virtue of no better candidate...vote for Romney if Romney is losing by a statistically significant margin?

Why vote AGAINST one’s principles at that point?

There actually would be no good reason for doing so. It would be better to let the GOP-e know they messed this one up by NOT voting for their hand-jammed candidate. Instead, a vote for Goode would be a protest vote that could actually be counted.

As you can see, Romney has an extremely difficult electoral college path to victory. That, of course, is the real contest with the popular polls being only a reflection of broad sentiment. Obama, on the other hand, has simply to put Ohio, Michigan and either Virginia or Wisconsin in his column for a victory. Right now RCP has him leading in those states. Two of them, Michigan and Wisconsin are fairly reliable blue states.

Ohio is a state that has a history of voting with the winner. I believe that for republicans Ohio has proven to be a must. No republican has ever won, iirc, if they lose Ohio. If Romney loses Ohio, then he loses the election.

So, let me encourage conservatives again...those in the ABO boat...IF IF IF Romney is losing by a statistically significant margin on Oct 31 to send a message by voting for Virgil Goode. What is a statistically significant margin? It is the MOE if one is speaking mathematically. That will be about 3-4% in a large national sample.

However, ABO voters can determine themselves what margin lets them know that Romney is in big trouble. Surely, most would agree that a 5% margin deficit 2-3 days before the election is a really bad sign. I know there are those who deny the applicability of polls, or their fairness, or their accuracy, but experience has taught me that they are a reasonable reflection of what’s taking place in the electorate.

I hope I’ve done a better job of explaining myself with this post. If not, let me know, and I’ll try again. The key is the IF.

To make matters worse, Romney is losing electoral tally by 227 to 170.

That is the key stat as we elect on the basis of EC votes not popular votes. But popular votes do indicate acceptance.

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Ah, but you are neglecting the trend.

A week ago, it was Obama 253, Romney 170.

Since then, WI (10) and MI (16) have moved from “Leans Obama” to “toss-up”.

Plus, I think they should move AZ (11) and MO (10) to “Leans Romney” from “Tossup”. That would make it 225-191.

From 191, add:

FL - 29
VA - 13
NC - 15
IA - 6

That’s 254. Add one of PA (20), OH (18), or MI (16), and Bong-Boy is gone.

Aside from a couple recent Rasmussen polls every poll of likely voters (including a Rasmussen in between the 2 that showed Obama up) have showed Romney up.

With the undecided vote expected to break against Obama I’m confident Romney would win narrowly if the election was today, but it’s not today.