Skip to comments.America's 21st-Century Population Edge (The 21st century will still be the American Century)
Posted on 05/27/2012 6:05:58 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Look around you. For most nations of the world, birth and fertility rates have never fallen so far, so fast, so long, so surprisingly, all across the globe. Except for America.
Seen globally, the population explosionor what Stanford's Paul Ehrlich called "the population bomb" in the 1960sis now stone-cold dead. The ramifications are enormous economically, geopolitically, culturally and personally. For one, the United States will become stronger than ever in the games nations play.
Every other major modern nation and every developing country has low or falling birth rates. Japan and Poland see 1.3 children per woman, Brazil and China 1.9, Pakistan 3.6 (down from 6.6 three decades ago). American fertility rates are relatively high, at nearly 2.1.
Having children is an affirmative act, so it's little surprise that surveysGallup, Harris and othersshow Americans to be the most optimistic nation in the world. (Israel, too, is an optimistic nation with a sense of mission and high birth rates.)
Then there's the effect of immigration. According to the United Nations and the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. takes in more immigrants than the rest of the world combined. Think Albert Einstein, Madeleine Albright, Andy Grove, Albert Pujols, Sergei Brin, I.M. Pei or David Hockney.
Drive in the suburbs and exurbs of many major American cities and you will see McMansion homes with three, four or even five childrenMcPlentyunheard of anywhere else. American couples can choose to have many children because the U.S. is one of the world's few suburban nations. In suburban settings, some affluent parents are deciding that for a decade or so raising a large family is more important than having two earners.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
Size also yields vast economies of scale. As population grows, through fertility and immigration, a healthy housing market is inevitable. It's either that or tens of millions of Americans sleeping on the streets. Bet on the boom.
There's corporate growth too, across industries. Imagine an American corporation, XYZ, that wants to start doing business in Thailand. Only in a polyglot nation like America can XYZ search out and find the adult children of Thai immigrants who know America inside and out but also know Thai customs and language.
Few if any nations have all these advantages. The demography in play guarantees that the 21st century, like the 20th, will be an "American Century."
Demographic phooey. No counrty $17T in debt will be leading anything. Except the fall.
You miss the point of such a large debt FRiend......if it’s too much, who really is left holding the bag?......Like a wise man once said...”Owe a little and the bank owns you. Owe a lot and you own the bank”
Does Wattenburg get around to describing how 1 in 7 Americans now receive food stamps? And that would mean that somewhere around 1 in 5 working aged adult American heads-of-household, depends on the government (59% taxes and 41% new debt) for their and their dependents support?
A nation with $16 trillion of debt and such a large portion of working age adults not involved in productive, economic activity is not so well situated as Wattenburg seems to think.
Wattenburg has always sung the praises of immigration and open borders, and seems to comprehend little else.
RE: Demographic phooey. No counrty $17T in debt will be leading anything. Except the fall.
In which case, WHO is going to want to immigrate to such a country if and when the debt time bomb explodes?
We already are seeing rich people FLEE the USA (SEE: Saverin, Eduardo) for what they perceive as better climes.
The main hope is a CHANGE OF DIRECTION. I’m not sure if Romney is the man t do it either.
For instance comparing US and China:
Birth rate: US at 13.68/1000 and China at 12.31/1000
Immigration rate: US at 3.62/1000 and China at -.33/1000
Yearly population growth rate: US at .899% and China at .481%
Fertlity Rate: US at 2.06 and China at 1.55
Get a grip people. Ben Wattenberg is right. Demographics and geography IS destiny. This country has been counted out before. In the end the debt will be liquidated one way or the other. We have a generation woefully ignorant of history. You people seem to think the history of this country was all upward mobility and everybody getting richer. You forget the utter destruction of the south after the CW. You forget the destruction of the middle class during the depression. And you forget that this country was counted out during Carter when the Japanese where kicking our butts economically and the Soviets were taking over half the world AND scaring the crap out of the other half. This gloom and doom mantra is getting old. BUCK THE HELL UP !!
In reality Gomez, Sanchez, Ramirez,...
First, worker productivity.
Second, population growth
For many years Canada and the US have been acheiving a pop growth rate of about .9 percent. Canada has acheived this with a relatively higher immigration rate and a relatively lower birth rate
The problem with population growth in America today, and for the last 47 years, is that much of it is Bottom-Of-The-Barrel emigration from Africa, the Mideast, Mexico and other countries to the south.
The author places a lot of value on quantity of people and economy of scale but quality seems to be overlooked. What benefit is population growth from emigration if it does not add to our quality of life and if it is mostly takers, not makers?
For almost half a century our politicians have passed emigration laws without regard for the effect on our quality of life, our way of life, our traditions, or our economy (other than to supply cheap labor). By those criteria, the America they have created is certainly not better than the America they have destroyed.
Wattenburg also ‘conveniently’ forgets to mention the sad reality that children born in the teeming black Big Sh*tty ghettos are not acculturated as Americans. Children born to the swarm of illegal aliens from Mexico and further south are likewise NOT going to act like Americans because they were not raised by Americans, nor were they acculturated as Americans.
I'm pretty sure Mark Steyn would agree.
We just gotta get back our free market economy. Firing about a million government regulators, transitioning from a government that says "You're entitled" to one that says "Get a job," and cutting taxes by half would sure help.
You are wrong. American manufacuring productivity is 10 times higher than China. The USA has 18% of the worlds manufacturing output. Half of the Chinese population is living in total poverty. Per capita GDP is only $8,000. The USA has technollogy, innovation and freedom. China does not have this.
Not among the middle class. This is BS.
RE: In reality Gomez, Sanchez, Ramirez,...
If you look at immigration (illegal included) trends the last three years. The number of people coming from Mexico and other Hispanic countries are DECREASING and REVERSING.
Wattenburg’s point is not valid if a sufficient portion of the population is not involved in self-supporting, economic activity. And at present, and actually for several decades, the trend in the US has been toward more and more dependence upon government. In fact, that’s what lures some portion of immigrants to the US.
That’s not a formula for a new American Century.
I’m wrong? What, is the US actually now a creditor nation with most all it’s working age population engaged in productive, self-supporting economic activity?
And your leap to manufacturing and China doesn’t really address the subject of this thread.
Agreed. - What this country needs are more Americans, and not just more US Citizens. There is a difference. - tom
YES! - That's what I was trying to say!
You wrap it up quite nicely.
“Ben Wattenberg is right. Demographics and geography IS destiny.”
Yes, mick, demographics -is- “destiny”:
Do you really, really, think these newcomers are going to grow up and vote “conservative”?
Between the pill, two parents working to pay for a horde of welfare brats with access to "affirmative action," funding their own kids' educations, saving for retirement, and paying for parents to live in separate houses on Social Insecurity, it's a wonder anybody has more than two kids.
Yes. The welfare state is doomed. Once entitlements are reduced and folks are back to fending for themselves as our ancestors had to do. For example: The black family had lessor out of wedlock births than whites before the welfare state destroyed them. And Hispanics are a religious and socially conservative people. Progressive liberalism destroys everything it touches. Destroy IT and this country will OWN the 21st century.
Growth through immigration is only good if they assimilate or reinforce the existing culture, instead of creating balkanization.
I read the link. Thanks. But I don’t think it changes my assumption - IF we destroy the entitlement state ALL immigrants become Americans in order to survive and prosper. Just like the English, Germans, Irish, Italians, Jews, Finns, Swedes did before them. Nobody came here AS AMERICANS....the rough and tumble capitalist system made us Americans. I honestly believe that if we return to that our country will be fine. Changed? Of course. But still the land of the free. And the toughest guy on the block.
That’s why the entitlement state must go.
No doubt the US would have been exactly the same country if those migrants had been arabs, Thai, Mongols and Nigerians...
‘American’ is nothing more than an amalgamate of the cultures that settled the US.
Frankly, your statement"American is nothing more than an amalgamate of the cultures that settled the US." is as false as false could be. Every immigrant who brought his "culture" to these shores was changed by the experience. The political and economic institutions established by the original English settlers allowed for this. And every group that came after,left free to develop itself in this New World, was also changed by it.
And your snide comment that implies the "arabs, Thai, Mongols and Nigerians" could not become Americans as well is also wrong. I know of plenty of arabs, thais and Nigerians who are as American as you. Although, I admit, I don't know of any Mongols!
The Turner Thesis
In 1893, three years after the superintendent of the Census announced that the western frontier was closed, Frederick Jackson Turner, a historian from the University of Wisconsin, advanced a thesis that the conquest of the western frontier had given American society its special character. At the Columbian Exposition in Chicago, marking the 400th anniversary of Columbus's discovery of the New World, Turner argued that the conquest of the western frontier as the nation's formative experience, which had shaped the nation's character and values. Western expansion accounted for Americans' optimism, their rugged independence, and their stress on adaptability, ingenuity, and self reliance.
I do, they’re called Native Americans.
The estimates for the world population by year 2100 often run to a peak of 9 billion around 2050, with a subsequent levelling off.
In my humble opinion, the US population will be as high as 3 billion by year 2100, with the world population being as high as 50 billion. The current ratio of US population to world population is about 5 per cent, and that ratio will be higher in favor of the US population.
By year 2100, humans will have self-sufficient colonies on Mars, but the population there will probably still be measured in the thousands or perhaps hundreds of thousands. The number of people working in microgravity environments will be at least in the hundreds, and probably in the thousands, and that will be excluding humans living and working on (more like in) the Moon.
Extra, extra ping to the X-Planets and APoD lists.
|GGG managers are SunkenCiv, StayAt HomeMother & Ernest_at_the_Beach|
Thanks SeekAndFind.According to the United Nations and the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. takes in more immigrants than the rest of the world combined... Drive in the suburbs and exurbs of many major American cities and you will see McMansion homes with three, four or even five children... In suburban settings, some affluent parents are deciding that for a decade or so raising a large family is more important than having two earnersA Longer Perspectives topic.
You'll find NOBODY who's more up on America's future than I am. I keep an eye and track on where science and technology is going and I'm here to tell you, America's future is going to be GLORIOUS! Yeah, we may fall on our collective a$$e$ at times, but consider some of the following.
Even discounting the outrageous strides that our military is making, have any of you looked at what we're doing with stem cells?
We can change a skin cell into a stem cell and change it back into a heart muscle cell! Or a brain cell! Or a nerve cell! We're learning to understand how they operate to the extent that we now can hold out TRUE hope to repair spinal cord injuries and amputations and blind or burn victims for TOTAL repair of any of these ailments. And not in the next 100-200 years! In the next 10-20 years!
We've also figured out the 5 stem cell lines that make up the human lung system and think that we can repair damage like emphysema and other lung and heart conditions.
We have a lab here in the States who decided to try and create a human bladder using nothing but stem cells. So they built a scaffolding and started to bathe it with bladder stem cells. Over and over day after day they did this until lo and behold, they had a bladder! But that could be a fluke. So they thought they'd do it again and again, *POOF* they came out with a human bladder made to order. And they did it again and again and again until they came to the conclusion that they'd better do something with it or find a new line of work.
The upshot is that there are hundreds of people walking around with artificial bladders made of human cells instead of some plastic composite that could be rejected.
Any of you ever here of 'Shapeways.com?' Go check it out. You can design a product using a CAD program like Google sketch-up and submit it to them and they can build you your product using a special desktop printing technique that you can sell! Just like a replicator on Star Trek.
Speaking of printing, do you realize that we're learning to print human organs on printers? And solar panels sheets that are flexible and can be pasted on anything?
Our business world is disappearing into our desktops and the US govt isn't able to comprehend this. There isn't a problem with American's there's a problem with politicians.
Shotguns have been around since the 1600's or so? British hunting weapon? Well, they're still the same thing as they were back then. It took an American to sit down and rethink their design. There's now a beast called an AS-12 that's an automatic shotgun. It comes in drums of 20 or 30 shells that can fire on full automatic. They've also redesigned the shells for them. A grenade that can be shot out of one with fins of it's own for stability. And that's one of 40 new kind of shells that they developed for it!
You people may not be interested in it but there are millions of people making a living doing nothing but internet businesses. Ebay leaps to mind but there are hundreds of other ways to earn an income on the internet.
And that's only a slight touch of what America's future looks like. It's going to be bright and glorious and I have little respect for you doom and gloomers!