Skip to comments.America's 21st-Century Population Edge (The 21st century will still be the American Century)
Posted on 05/27/2012 6:05:58 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Look around you. For most nations of the world, birth and fertility rates have never fallen so far, so fast, so long, so surprisingly, all across the globe. Except for America.
Seen globally, the population explosionor what Stanford's Paul Ehrlich called "the population bomb" in the 1960sis now stone-cold dead. The ramifications are enormous economically, geopolitically, culturally and personally. For one, the United States will become stronger than ever in the games nations play.
Every other major modern nation and every developing country has low or falling birth rates. Japan and Poland see 1.3 children per woman, Brazil and China 1.9, Pakistan 3.6 (down from 6.6 three decades ago). American fertility rates are relatively high, at nearly 2.1.
Having children is an affirmative act, so it's little surprise that surveysGallup, Harris and othersshow Americans to be the most optimistic nation in the world. (Israel, too, is an optimistic nation with a sense of mission and high birth rates.)
Then there's the effect of immigration. According to the United Nations and the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. takes in more immigrants than the rest of the world combined. Think Albert Einstein, Madeleine Albright, Andy Grove, Albert Pujols, Sergei Brin, I.M. Pei or David Hockney.
Drive in the suburbs and exurbs of many major American cities and you will see McMansion homes with three, four or even five childrenMcPlentyunheard of anywhere else. American couples can choose to have many children because the U.S. is one of the world's few suburban nations. In suburban settings, some affluent parents are deciding that for a decade or so raising a large family is more important than having two earners.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
Size also yields vast economies of scale. As population grows, through fertility and immigration, a healthy housing market is inevitable. It's either that or tens of millions of Americans sleeping on the streets. Bet on the boom.
There's corporate growth too, across industries. Imagine an American corporation, XYZ, that wants to start doing business in Thailand. Only in a polyglot nation like America can XYZ search out and find the adult children of Thai immigrants who know America inside and out but also know Thai customs and language.
Few if any nations have all these advantages. The demography in play guarantees that the 21st century, like the 20th, will be an "American Century."
Demographic phooey. No counrty $17T in debt will be leading anything. Except the fall.
You miss the point of such a large debt FRiend......if it’s too much, who really is left holding the bag?......Like a wise man once said...”Owe a little and the bank owns you. Owe a lot and you own the bank”
Does Wattenburg get around to describing how 1 in 7 Americans now receive food stamps? And that would mean that somewhere around 1 in 5 working aged adult American heads-of-household, depends on the government (59% taxes and 41% new debt) for their and their dependents support?
A nation with $16 trillion of debt and such a large portion of working age adults not involved in productive, economic activity is not so well situated as Wattenburg seems to think.
Wattenburg has always sung the praises of immigration and open borders, and seems to comprehend little else.
RE: Demographic phooey. No counrty $17T in debt will be leading anything. Except the fall.
In which case, WHO is going to want to immigrate to such a country if and when the debt time bomb explodes?
We already are seeing rich people FLEE the USA (SEE: Saverin, Eduardo) for what they perceive as better climes.
The main hope is a CHANGE OF DIRECTION. I’m not sure if Romney is the man t do it either.
For instance comparing US and China:
Birth rate: US at 13.68/1000 and China at 12.31/1000
Immigration rate: US at 3.62/1000 and China at -.33/1000
Yearly population growth rate: US at .899% and China at .481%
Fertlity Rate: US at 2.06 and China at 1.55
Get a grip people. Ben Wattenberg is right. Demographics and geography IS destiny. This country has been counted out before. In the end the debt will be liquidated one way or the other. We have a generation woefully ignorant of history. You people seem to think the history of this country was all upward mobility and everybody getting richer. You forget the utter destruction of the south after the CW. You forget the destruction of the middle class during the depression. And you forget that this country was counted out during Carter when the Japanese where kicking our butts economically and the Soviets were taking over half the world AND scaring the crap out of the other half. This gloom and doom mantra is getting old. BUCK THE HELL UP !!
In reality Gomez, Sanchez, Ramirez,...
First, worker productivity.
Second, population growth
For many years Canada and the US have been acheiving a pop growth rate of about .9 percent. Canada has acheived this with a relatively higher immigration rate and a relatively lower birth rate
The problem with population growth in America today, and for the last 47 years, is that much of it is Bottom-Of-The-Barrel emigration from Africa, the Mideast, Mexico and other countries to the south.
The author places a lot of value on quantity of people and economy of scale but quality seems to be overlooked. What benefit is population growth from emigration if it does not add to our quality of life and if it is mostly takers, not makers?
For almost half a century our politicians have passed emigration laws without regard for the effect on our quality of life, our way of life, our traditions, or our economy (other than to supply cheap labor). By those criteria, the America they have created is certainly not better than the America they have destroyed.
Wattenburg also ‘conveniently’ forgets to mention the sad reality that children born in the teeming black Big Sh*tty ghettos are not acculturated as Americans. Children born to the swarm of illegal aliens from Mexico and further south are likewise NOT going to act like Americans because they were not raised by Americans, nor were they acculturated as Americans.
I'm pretty sure Mark Steyn would agree.
We just gotta get back our free market economy. Firing about a million government regulators, transitioning from a government that says "You're entitled" to one that says "Get a job," and cutting taxes by half would sure help.
You are wrong. American manufacuring productivity is 10 times higher than China. The USA has 18% of the worlds manufacturing output. Half of the Chinese population is living in total poverty. Per capita GDP is only $8,000. The USA has technollogy, innovation and freedom. China does not have this.
Not among the middle class. This is BS.
RE: In reality Gomez, Sanchez, Ramirez,...
If you look at immigration (illegal included) trends the last three years. The number of people coming from Mexico and other Hispanic countries are DECREASING and REVERSING.
Wattenburg’s point is not valid if a sufficient portion of the population is not involved in self-supporting, economic activity. And at present, and actually for several decades, the trend in the US has been toward more and more dependence upon government. In fact, that’s what lures some portion of immigrants to the US.
That’s not a formula for a new American Century.
I’m wrong? What, is the US actually now a creditor nation with most all it’s working age population engaged in productive, self-supporting economic activity?
And your leap to manufacturing and China doesn’t really address the subject of this thread.