Skip to comments.Obama sees warnings in North Carolina, Wisconsin, bright spot in New Mexico in race to 270
Posted on 05/28/2012 10:24:14 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued
UP FOR GRABS (85):
Colorado (9) Long a reliable GOP state, but Colorado's conservative profile is changing. Young professionals and Hispanic voters were central to Obama's victory in 2008, but the sluggish economy has hurt his standing. Female voters in Denver's suburbs could play a big role.
Florida (29) Florida is the prime target for both campaigns. Obama won in 2008, but the housing crisis, high unemployment and gas prices are dogging him. Romney won the primary in January and has picked up the endorsement of GOP Sen. Marco Rubio. Obama's organization has a large advantage.
Iowa (6) An important Bush-state pick-up for Obama in 2008. Iowa has been a national popular-vote bellwether for 20 years. Obama's attention in the state where his caucus victory launched him in 2008 is countered by Romney's two caucus campaigns. Conservatives are wary of Romney's Mormon faith and social issues profile, but he's got GOP Gov. Terry Branstad on his side.
Nevada (6) One of three Southwestern states Obama flipped in 2008. Nevada is also the prime example of the economy's struggles. Unemployment was 12.3 percent in February, a point Romney will press. There's a strong labor and Hispanic vote, a plus for Obama. A higher Mormon population helps Romney.
New Hampshire (4) Romney has a vacation home in New Hampshire, which is next to Massachusetts, where Romney was governor. He won the 2012 primary big, but Obama peeled off this Bush state in 2008 and has worked hard to keep it. Vice President Joe Biden visited Friday. But the GOP is back in power in the Legislature, and freshman Sen. Kelly Ayotte is seen as asset for Romney.
Ohio (18) This Midwestern state has been a general election bellwether since 1980.
(Excerpt) Read more at startribune.com ...
Florida, North Carolina and Virginia are gone for the Messiah.
Last time I checked, a “gay marriage” prop will be on the ballot in Colorado. Not a good thing for our first “gay” president. Gonna drive voter turnout against the prop, and the dope.
Lots of state-by-state analysis here.
Ohio is ground zero, just like it was in 2004.
I do think that some states may surprise. Pennsylvania bears close watching. It votes Democrat in Presidential elections, but Obama is very unpopular there and the economy hasn’t recovered.
Of course, Wisconsin’s recall will bear close watching. Since it’s a rematch between the 2010 candidates, the areas with the biggest change in voting habits need the closest attention.
The bright spot in New Mexico is due to the fact that the Dems have been so successful in importing voters from Mexico.
It is amazing how few states are ever in play in Presidential elections —
This article is kind of shallow. It says nothing about specific Obama policies and actions and how they have effected each state. It says very little about the grassroots conservative organizing that has taken place since 2009. This upcoming election is very different from the 2008 election, and the 2012 Obama is very different from the 2008 version, but these differences are not at all captured in the analysis within this article.
Hindsight simplifies close elections. Once the votes are counted four or five states loom large. But leading up to the vote there are ten or twelve others where significant campaigning has taken place.
Dip shit Obama may pull out a win in Florida ? LOL
Gov. Scott and the legislative just culled about 100,000 illegal voters off the rolls...I’m sure almost all the dead voted for Obama
As Hugh Hewitt says they can’t steal the election if it isn’t close ....
Since the Republicans never can win New York and California and the dozen other states on the east and west coasts, why don’t they just eliminate or discount them from their primary tallies. Then they would come up with a candidate most amenable to the voters in those states that they actually have a chance to win.
That would disenfranchise Republican voters in those states.
Upon looking at the geopolitical map, changing demographics, the economy, and the general crappy mood of America, the pallis poll predicts Obama will lose big time, worse than McCain did.
Now that the dead are being culled from the rolls here, the next step has started to cross verify anyone on the rolls in Florida that are still on the rolls in other states. No huff and puff from this governor, just paying attention to business and getting it done. Press conferences just waste time.
On my last visit to see my Mom in Nevada late last year, she had just received a jury duty summons for my Dad. He passed away in 1998. I sent that summons to someone there to help their push to clean things up there as well.
Correction, worse than Carter did and maybe worse than Mondale.
And Romney will not will either of his home states.
I wonder where on the list NM Governor Susana Martinez is for VP.
OTOH, candidates running with a female VP nominee are 0 for 2, so maybe Romney better pick Rubio.
Susana Martinez has ruled out being a candidate and Marco Rubio has distanced himself from the speculation. Most people expect that the Vice Presidential nominee will be U.S. Senator Rob Portman of Ohio.
2008 + IN, NC, FL, VA, OH, NV o/r IA = 271EV
I am inclined to agree.
Don’t need NewMex. Under any scenario, really.
“The bright spot in New Mexico is due to the fact that the Dems have been so successful in importing voters from Mexico.”
Worth noting is that New Mexico has now become the second “White minority state” (California was the first). By virtue of demographics and how such demographics impact voters’ preferences, it’s going to be increasingly difficult for Republicans to win there again at the statewide and presidential levels.
Another state that faces “blue future” due to demographic change is Texas, of all places. Yes, I -know- how Texans vote today, and will vote in the near-term. But I believe fully 70% of all new births in Texas are to non-Euros — almost certainly the lion’s share of that 70% are to Hispanics and most of them illegal. It will take twenty years for this cohort to reach voting age, but when it does....?
Let’s see President Obama and Tammy Baldwin hand in hand campaign in Wisconsin. Who is further left, who is more extreme? Baldwin & Obama representing main stream Wisconsin & America values? Really?
Yup...it's about time
I recall a study done I think from the 2004 election done just between NJ, NY, NC and FL....
They found something of the order of 18,000 votes cast in Florida from people living in the other three states that voted there as well...
I always get a chuckle when libtards claim there is no voter fraud...
A MINNESOTA PAPER? Come on - this is biased to the Messiah. For example, the article says:
Michigan (16) Despite lingering economic pain in the auto capital, Michigan has large minority and union voting blocs that favor Obama. Romney, a native son whose father was governor, won the GOP primary but his opposition to the 2008 auto bailout will hurt him.
NO - Romney’s opposition won’t hurt him. Only the Union slugs are happy about the auto bailout and the government takeover of GM. The rest of Michigan is as outraged as any other non-union, non-welfare, working class group. This article clearly slants the outcome in Obama’s direction, sometimes by using reasoning that only libs can understand. Obama may win Michigan based on the union and welfare slugs - along with significant ballot box stuffing in Detroit, Flint and Ann Arbor, but the auto bailout is a non-factor.
Can’t speak for the Sunshine State, but I do spend a lot of time in Virginia and North Carolina.
I concur with your assessment of the Tarheel State; in fact, the reversal in that state since 2008 is nothing less than stunning. Two years after Barry O carried North Carolina, the GOP gained control of both houses of the state legislature (for the first time since Reconstruction); the incumbent Rat governor, Beverly Perdue, was forced to abandon her bid for re-election, and voters approved a ballot measure banning gay marriage by more than 20 points.
In fact, one of the most bizarre spectacles in American politics will occur in Charlotte later this year, when the Dims gather for their convention. Nothing like the Anointed One being nominated in a right-to-work state that Obama will lose by at least eight points.
The race in Virginia is much tighter, but like NC, the GOP has experienced a resurgence since 2008. The federal workers who live in northern Virginia will likely give Obama an edge in that area. But Axelrod and Company are clearly worried about Hampton Roads and the military vote. Last week, they began a media blitz in Norfolk touting Obama’s record as commander-in-chief. At the time, the media stenographers claimed that Obama sensed an opening, because he’s much more competitive among military voters and veterans.
Today, we found out the real reason for the push: a new Gallup survey gives Mitt Romney a 24-point advantage among the veterans voting block. In states like
VA, NC and Florida, if you’re losing veterans by that margin, you will likely lose the entire state, since all three have large military populations—and even greater numbers of veterans who turn out and vote.
Columbus or Pittsburgh. No-brainer. Bobo could have won re-election without NC, but he won't win dogcatcher without holding onto Ohio and Pennsylvania. And he's quite possibly going to lose both.
I’m amused that some people still think Obama can win Republican states he won with with 49% last time when he was actually popular.