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Dewhurst and Cruz headed for runoff in Texas Senate race
Washington Post ^ | Tuesday May 29, 2012

Posted on 05/29/2012 8:09:51 PM PDT by Bigtigermike

The Texas Republican Senate primary is headed for a runoff, after Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst fell just shy of 50 percent of the vote Tuesday.

Dewhurst will face former state solicitor general Ted Cruz, a favorite of the tea party, in the July 31 runoff. The winner of that runoff will be a heavy favorite to succeed retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas), after Democrats failed to land a top-tier recruit.

With 43 percent of precincts reporting, Dewhurst led Cruz 46 percent to 32 percent. Seven other candidates split the vote enough, though, to push the two into a runoff.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: dewhurst; senate; teaparty; tedcruz; tx; tx2012
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Good! Go Cruz
1 posted on 05/29/2012 8:10:04 PM PDT by Bigtigermike
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To: Bigtigermike

Ditto. But I have serious doubts about him pulling nearly ALL of the voters from Dewhurst’s side over to his.

Still, stranger things have happened.


2 posted on 05/29/2012 8:12:20 PM PDT by fwdude
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To: fwdude

Dewhurst’s campaign used a parade of lies to sway voters away from Cruz.

Cruz is more conservative. If the grassroots conservatives unite behind Cruz, he will win.


3 posted on 05/29/2012 8:15:16 PM PDT by WOSG (Anyone But Obama)
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To: WOSG

Good, a victory tonight. Let’s finish off Dewhurst. His ads were disgusting.


4 posted on 05/29/2012 8:18:43 PM PDT by JCBreckenridge
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To: Bigtigermike

Woot!


5 posted on 05/29/2012 8:22:36 PM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of The Masses Could Be Farts)
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To: JCBreckenridge

Dewhurst’s ads were a complete joke and patently false. David Dewhurst is a sleazeball that used his office as Lt. Gov. to kill many conservative measures. He killed the anti-TSA groping bill just to name one. The people that voted for him are truly sheep that shouldn’t be allowed to vote.


6 posted on 05/29/2012 8:23:53 PM PDT by jsdjason
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To: Bigtigermike
David Dewhurst = DO NOT WANT!

/johnny

7 posted on 05/29/2012 8:26:26 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: WOSG
Dewhurst’s campaign used a parade of lies to sway voters away from Cruz.

The one I heard - repeatedly, today - was how Cruz sat on Pro-Amnesty boards. Anyone else hear that one?

8 posted on 05/29/2012 8:29:49 PM PDT by Jane Long (Soli Deo Gloria!)
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To: WOSG

I hope so.

What did Dewhurst get, 47%? That’s going to be hard to overcome given a static scenario of voter shifting.

Of course, nothing is static here.


9 posted on 05/29/2012 8:31:02 PM PDT by fwdude
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To: Bigtigermike

Congrats Ted.

Calling all Conservative Freepers: Let’s support Ted..whether or not you live in Texas. He needs our help to defeat Dewhurst who apparently learned how to attack his opponent from Mittens Romney and his slimey PAC, Restore Our Future.


10 posted on 05/29/2012 8:42:07 PM PDT by Mountain Mary (One Nation Under God..."There I said it" ... Great One...)
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To: fwdude

Dewhurst is at 46 with 46 in. He’s just above single variance for getting 50 percent. At double variance, Cruz will have it locked up.


11 posted on 05/29/2012 8:45:48 PM PDT by JCBreckenridge
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To: Mountain Mary
Dewhurst's ads are the sort of lies we'll hear from Bammo this election.

The old "if you repeat a lie enough times, (for some) it becomes the truth".

12 posted on 05/29/2012 8:51:18 PM PDT by Jane Long (Soli Deo Gloria!)
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To: Bigtigermike

Good news, Ted Cruz in July.


13 posted on 05/29/2012 8:57:40 PM PDT by izzatzo (Just beat Obama.)
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To: Bigtigermike

It’s going to be a tough slog. Most Leppert voters who vote in the runoff will vote for Dewhurst. And Dewhurst will continue to outspend Cruz two to one.

Crus has already challenged Dewhurst to three runoff debates, and Dewhurst declined. Cruz is still very much the underdog in the race. Sure, he can still win it, but conservatives are going to have to work their butts off for him over the next 60 days.


14 posted on 05/29/2012 9:06:36 PM PDT by Josh Painter ("The lesser of two evils is, by definition, evil." - Josh Painter)
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To: Josh Painter

When has it ever been easy for conservatives.

Just getting into a runoff was a great victory for Ted.

Let loose the dogs of war!


15 posted on 05/29/2012 9:13:22 PM PDT by tennmountainman
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To: Bigtigermike

Yahoo!!!!! Now it’s on to the really tough part of the campaign - getting Cruz over the top. It’s going to be Austin against the Tea Party and Conservatives.


16 posted on 05/29/2012 9:26:39 PM PDT by Grams A (The Sun will rise in the East in the morning and God is still on his throne.)
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To: Bigtigermike
Interesting...On one of the stations I have to babysit the Humphries/Hendrie show...not sure which is on at the moment....announced Cruz had lost big time and the Tea Party was licking it's wounds.

I'd listen closer but I have other, more important stations that need attention.

17 posted on 05/29/2012 9:27:29 PM PDT by prisoner6 (Right Wing Nuts bolt the Constitution together as the loose screws of the Left fall out!)
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To: mylife
Woot!

ditto

18 posted on 05/29/2012 9:30:43 PM PDT by Liberty Valance (Keep a simple manner for a happy life :o)
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To: Bigtigermike

I don’t know if this is meaningful or not, but I found something interesting, at least, in the numbers that are being reported.

The TX Secretary of State reports Early Votes and Total Votes...so you just calculate to get the election day votes (at least I’m assuming that works).

As of right now, here are the total vote counts:

EARLY
Cruz 199,636 (30.1%)
Dewhurst 318,067 (47.9%)
Total cast - 663,623

TOTAL
Cruz 387,289 (32.6%)
Dewhurst 535,277 (45.1%)
Total cast - 1,186,876

ELECTION DAY (my calculation)
Cruz 187,653 (35.9%)
Dewhurst 217,210 (41.5%)
Total election day cast 523,253

SO, either the Dewhurst voters for some reason self-selected to vote early OR there was a definite trend toward Cruz as the election approached.

The latter seems more plausible to me. That’s just a 5.6% spread. With 2 months to give the conservative base a chance to rally strong - with the help of guys like Mark Levin, Andrew Wilkow, etc...I think Cruz has a great shot at this.

OR am I misreading it?

Hank


19 posted on 05/29/2012 9:37:41 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball (Screw it. Newt's the smartest candidate and the guy I want to see debating Obummer. Flame away.)
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To: Bigtigermike

Yay! Our family financially supported Cruz and voted for him. Plan to do so again.


20 posted on 05/29/2012 9:47:15 PM PDT by Texas56
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To: Liberty Valance

It’s looking good at this point.
Lets get this guy some decent ads and sew this thing up!


21 posted on 05/29/2012 9:48:42 PM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of The Masses Could Be Farts)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

You are spot on.
There is a trend here.


22 posted on 05/29/2012 9:51:00 PM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of The Masses Could Be Farts)
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To: Bigtigermike

With 96% reporting, Dewhurst has 45% and Cruz has 34%.

We have two months to get more conservatives motivated.


23 posted on 05/29/2012 10:19:10 PM PDT by Texas56
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To: Jane Long

yeah, except (a) Cruz did NOT SIT on the boards of the organizations and (b) those organizations arent for amnesty.


24 posted on 05/29/2012 10:24:02 PM PDT by WOSG (Anyone But Obama)
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To: mylife

Thanks....looks that way to me. Here are the updated numbers with 86% of the precincts in. The Election Day spread is down to 4.7%!

Early Total Election Day
Cruz 200077 433885 233808
Dewhurst 319024 581709 262685
TOTAL 665268 1291444 626176

Early Total Election Day
Cruz 30.1% 33.6% 37.3%
Dewhurst 48.0% 45.0% 42.0%

Hank


25 posted on 05/29/2012 10:31:54 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball (Screw it. Newt's the smartest candidate and the guy I want to see debating Obummer. Flame away.)
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To: Texas56

I’m in East Texas. We had a pretty hotly contested rematch contest for State Representative between a Tea Party type (David Simpson) who unseated a real RINO (Tommy Merritt) in 2010. Happy to report, Simpson won handily (60-40).

There were yard signs ALL OVER the place for both Simpson and Merritt. Also for judges, railroad commissioner, you name it. I’m not exaggerating by saying there must be 5000 signs scatterd around longview.

HUNDREDS of them were Cruz signs. I did not see a single Dewhurst sign. Not one. I looked hard, figuring he must have some supporters out here. Not a single one....it was really pretty remarkable.

Hank


26 posted on 05/29/2012 10:37:22 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball (Screw it. Newt's the smartest candidate and the guy I want to see debating Obummer. Flame away.)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball
SO, either the Dewhurst voters for some reason self-selected to vote early OR there was a definite trend toward Cruz as the election approached.

IMO Dewhurst put $money and organization into early voting.

Cruz will benefit from the 1-on-1 race, but Dewhurst is a more natural home for Leppert voters. Cruz will benefit from a more conservative electorate in the runoff, but Dewhurst still likely has the organizational advantage.

27 posted on 05/29/2012 11:46:46 PM PDT by Skulllspitter
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball
SO, either the Dewhurst voters for some reason self-selected to vote early OR there was a definite trend toward Cruz as the election approached. Little of both. Dewhurst had a bunch of bought and paid for endorsement slates targeting seniors and early voters. Same time, Cruz made a late TV buy. Plus, Dewhurst had a super PAC running over the top negative ads attacking Cruz nonstop, and I'd like to think there was a bit of a backlash against those.
28 posted on 05/30/2012 1:56:08 AM PDT by YCTHouston
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To: Skulllspitter

I think in the final days Dewhurst went negative against Leppert...maybe that will de-motivate Leppert himself and maybe even some of his voters for jumping onto the Dewhurst bandwagon.

Maybe....

I think all things considered, I’d rather be the insurgent here...especially with Palin, Club for Growth, and Jim DeMint. Cruz might just well take this!!!


29 posted on 05/30/2012 5:10:08 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: Bigtigermike

In the precinct I work as Judge in north Houston Cruz beat Do-Hurst two to one. This bodes well for Cruz because it will be hard to get all the steeple to return for the run off. If this holds true and the base comes out Cruz can make up the ten points.


30 posted on 05/30/2012 5:18:17 AM PDT by WilliamRobert (Ted Cruz Texas' true conservative)
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To: Bigtigermike

In the precinct I work as Judge in north Houston Cruz beat Do-Hurst two to one. This bodes well for Cruz because it will be hard to get all the steeple to return for the run off. If this holds true and the base comes out Cruz can make up the ten points.


31 posted on 05/30/2012 5:18:48 AM PDT by WilliamRobert (Ted Cruz Texas' true conservative)
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To: fwdude

One would have to assume the runoff will pull less voters than this primary, so we have to hope Cruz voters are more motivated and that dewhersts base of support does not show up in the same numbers. Tis is going to be a very interesting race.

I agree with others Cruz needs some really good media to pull in the peppers voters and demoralize support for dewherst. It amazes me that Texas has such a hands time voting in solid conservatives in primaries. I suppose it is the domination of big media markets and a strong state party that is heavily RINO.


32 posted on 05/30/2012 5:20:33 AM PDT by ilgipper
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To: ilgipper

I agree. It seems for as Republican as Texas is we really don’t vote in strong movement conservatives. As we’ve seen in this and many other statewide races you are correct that the establishment is very strong here.


33 posted on 05/30/2012 5:29:30 AM PDT by ctpsb (Thanks.)
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To: Skulllspitter
IMO Dewhurst put $money and organization into early voting.

Dewhurst outspent Cruz 5 to 1. Cruz will likely attract some serious Tea Party money for the runoff.

34 posted on 05/30/2012 5:36:23 AM PDT by The_Victor (If all I want is a warm feeling, I should just wet my pants.)
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To: ilgipper
Cruz did much better on Election day than he did in the Early Voting. Also there were over 44,000 less votes recorded than in the Governors race. So it remains to be seen how the turnout will be and what candidate can get his voters to the poles. Leppert's votes will also factor in the outcome.

From the Texas Election website:

RACE NAME PARTY EARLY VOTES PERCENT TOTAL VOTES PERCENT
U. S. Senator
Glenn Addison REP 11,413 1.70% 22,808 1.63%
Joe Agris REP 2,166 0.32% 4,544 0.32%
Curt Cleaver REP 3,183 0.47% 6,623 0.47%
Ted Cruz REP 200,888 30.03% 477,428 34.23%
David Dewhurst REP 320,995 47.98% 621,850 44.59%
Ben Gambini REP 3,440 0.51% 7,175 0.51%
Craig James REP 25,322 3.78% 50,081 3.59%
Tom Leppert REP 92,500 13.82% 185,934 13.33%
Lela Pittenger REP 9,016 1.34% 17,940 1.28%
----------- -----------
Race Total 668,923 1,394,383
Early Provisional Ballots Reported 345
Total Provisional Ballots Reported 1,775
Precincts Reported 8,746 of 8,779 Precincts 99.62%
Statewide Turnout 10.67% 13,065,425 Registered Voters

35 posted on 05/30/2012 5:41:50 AM PDT by deport (.............God Bless Texas............)
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To: deport

Cruz did much better on Election day than he did in the Early Voting.”

IF that represents late momentum (due to Dewhurst’s deceptive ads, perhaps...), and IF that momentum holds...

Then Cruz will win.


36 posted on 05/30/2012 5:46:15 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: ilgipper

Yes, motivation in the runoff will be everything. It is going to get interesting, and ugly.


37 posted on 05/30/2012 6:04:37 AM PDT by fwdude
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To: deport
Also of interest is the Democrats have a run off in their race to have a candidate to face the Republican in Nov. Paul Sadler leads Grady Yarbrough. Texas total voter turnout in both the GOP/Democrat Primary was about 15.5%.

Texas State Election website:

RACE NAME PARTY EARLY VOTES PERCENT TOTAL VOTES PERCENT
U. S. Senator
Addie Dainell Allen DEM 59,405 23.56% 113,161 22.92%
Sean Hubbard DEM 39,327 15.60% 79,604 16.12%
Paul Sadler DEM 86,585 34.35% 173,352 35.12%
Grady Yarbrough DEM 66,728 26.47% 127,460 25.82%
----------- -----------
Race Total 252,045 493,577
Early Provisional Ballots Reported 487
Total Provisional Ballots Reported 1,229
Precincts Reported 8,782 of 8,813 Precincts 99.65%
Statewide Turnout 3.77% 13,065,425 Registered Voters

38 posted on 05/30/2012 6:06:52 AM PDT by deport (.............God Bless Texas............)
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To: Bigtigermike

What are the rules for making it into a runoff for lower tier candidates (like Texas House representative)? Does the winner have to make over 50%? If not, do they take the top two or do others down the list (like the 3rd place winner if he is very close) get a shot at the runoff?


39 posted on 05/30/2012 6:26:21 AM PDT by boxlunch
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To: boxlunch

Never does a third-place candidate wind up in a runoff. If the No. 2 candidate pulls out, there is no runoff.


40 posted on 05/30/2012 7:21:56 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Past is prologue: The American people again let us down in this election cycle.)
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To: fwdude

When is the election?


41 posted on 05/30/2012 8:36:29 AM PDT by Mountain Mary (One Nation Under God..."There I said it" ... Great One...)
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To: ConservativeDude

When is the face-off? Conservatives need to work their tails off for Cruz between now and then.


42 posted on 05/30/2012 8:37:53 AM PDT by Mountain Mary (One Nation Under God..."There I said it" ... Great One...)
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To: Mountain Mary
When is the face-off?


From the posted article above....


43 posted on 05/30/2012 8:42:52 AM PDT by deport (.............God Bless Texas............)
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To: deport

I just donated to Cruz.

Final: only ten point separation.

Dew: 44%
Cruz: 34%


44 posted on 05/30/2012 8:45:05 AM PDT by Mountain Mary (One Nation Under God..."There I said it" ... Great One...)
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To: Mountain Mary

end of July


45 posted on 05/30/2012 8:58:46 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: Mountain Mary

With a 10.6 point separation between the two the question becomes what will the runoff turnout be and how will the voters for the other 7 candidates break. The turnout will be lower so it becomes which candidate can produce the best GOTV.


46 posted on 05/30/2012 9:02:52 AM PDT by deport (.............God Bless Texas............)
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To: Bigtigermike
Time for a Levin Surge for Cruz.

Mark Levin says Cruz is the “real deal”.

47 posted on 05/30/2012 10:22:31 AM PDT by hummingbird (Breitbart and Spartacus are here and there and everywhere.)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball; deport
The final result is much more favorable than the initial returns:

Dewhurst: 44.60%
Cruz: 34.23%
Other: 21.17%

If 85% of Cruz voters turn out for the runoff, 75% of Dewhurst voters turn out, and 65% of Other voters turn out, and Cruz wins 2/3 of the Other vote that turns out, he will squeak out a victory.

48 posted on 05/30/2012 11:00:18 AM PDT by Skulllspitter
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To: izzatzo; holdonnow; kristen
“Good news, Ted Cruz in July.”


Cruz needs money. If you can send him $$$, that will help him beat the Dewhurst (sic?) lying ads. Dewhurst has tons of $$$.

Let's surge and send Cruz $$$, whatever state you live in!

Levin says Cruz is the “real deal”. If nothing else, Levin's opinion goes a long way with me.

49 posted on 05/30/2012 11:14:15 AM PDT by hummingbird (Breitbart and Spartacus: here, there, everywhere!)
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To: hummingbird
My mistake.

“Time for a Levin Surge for Cruz.” (my post)


Only Levin can call for a “Levin Surge”.

I just got overwhelmed with thinking Cruz can win and that Levinites would take Cruz over the top!

I can't call for a Levin Surge; but I can call for a hummingbird surge!

50 posted on 05/30/2012 11:39:25 AM PDT by hummingbird (Breitbart and Spartacus: here, there, everywhere!)
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