The battle, as always, is for the squishy middle - the 10-15% of this country that haven't already taken up sides between liberal and conservative. These are the folks who usually decide our leaders and it's a scary thought because they are usually the least informed. Which is why they are always up for grabs every election.
They went Obama's way last time around because Obama was a fresh face and by golly, wouldn't it be the coolest thing to have a black president who speaks of "hope and change." Wouldn't it be nice if we all just got along and put all this nasty politicking aside! Kumbaya...kumbaya!
Well here we are four years later and are we better off than we were four years ago? Hell no. The whole "hope and change" meme turned out to be just another empty campaign slogan like "no new taxes" and "a kinder and gentler America."
So now Obama is pretty much stuck with his base - the 40-45%. The middle 10-15% is still up for grabs. Question we have to ask is how many of those 10-15% will decide that Obama deserves another four years? Not many, as the polls consistently show. Will they eventually gravitate over to Romney? I think they will. Many of them are not ready to admit they made a mistake taking a chance on Obama but when they get in that voting booth, they will vote accordingly.
I think a 54-44% blowout by Romney is a real possibility here. Not that Romney is the bees knees, but because Obama is just so awful.
They went Obama’s way last time around because Obama was a fresh face and by golly, wouldn’t it be the coolest thing to have a black president who speaks of “hope and change.” Wouldn’t it be nice if we all just got along and put all this nasty politicking aside! Kumbaya...kumbaya! .......
And at the time, as my 37 yr old daughter said,”Europe will like us”.
And as I said,”Europe has never liked us, never will and who really gives a s***!”
Excellent analysis.
The only thing I would add is that the 10-15% squishys aren’t distributed evenly by geography.
Some states like Cal, Ill, and NY will never go in the R column for POTUS.
But that makes it easier for the campaign to focus resources on Fl, Oh, NC, Va, etc.