Posted on 06/04/2012 6:22:59 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
What to think of the latest PPP poll in Wisconsin? One one hand, a narrow lead within the margin of error on the day before an election might signal a slight and final shift in momentum in Tom Barrett's favor. On the other, PPP is a Democratic pollster who might be looking for the best possible take on the race ... and having the Democrat down three as a best case would be a positive for supporters of Scott Walker. The Hill reports on the results:
A new poll finds Republican Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker with a narrowed lead over Democratic challenger Tom Barrett ahead of Tuesday's recall vote.
A Public Policy Polling survey released Monday shows Walker with the support of 50 percent of likely voters, ahead of Milwaukee Mayor Barrett at 47 percent.
But Walker’s support is down from a 50 to 45 percent edge in the same poll conducted three weeks ago and down from the seven-point 52-45 lead Walker held in a Marquette Law poll released last week.
PPP compares itself to Marquette as a way to argue for a changing electorate too, but that’s a false comparison. One can make comparisons within a survey series for that kind of argument, as PPP also does when noting the change from the 50/45 from three weeks ago in its own polls, but a comparison against another pollster as a series is invalid. It’s worth pointing out, too, that even within the PPP series, a chance from 50/45 to 50/47 is statistical noise, well within the margin of error. It’s basically no change at all.
PPP’s own internals don’t support an analysis that Walker has lost momentum, either:
Walker has a 51/47 approval rating. He’s up with men (55-42), whites (52-46), seniors (58-39), and especially voters in the Milwaukee suburbs (70/29).
Barrett has a 46/46 favorability rating, improved from 43/46 on our first poll after the primary. He’s winning with women (52/46), minorities (58-36), young voters (53-39), those in Milwaukee County (61-35), and ones in greater Madison (59-37).
This is a close race, closer than it was a couple weeks ago. Scott Walker’s still the favorite but Barrett’s prospects for an upset look better than they have in a long time.
That is an exercise in spin. First, as noted, the topline results haven’t changed at all in the statistical sense. Second, Barrett only leads women by six points and barely holds a majority among younger voters — and that’s good news for a Democrat? Walker has majority approval statewide, holds a +13 among men, and wins by almost 20 points among seniors. Barrett’s only getting 59% in “greater Madison,” which one presumes would be the area of Dane County most densely populated with public employee union members. Meanwhile, Walker’s taking 70% of the suburbs around Barrett’s own city.
Turnout will definitely be key, but don’t take too much from this last PPP poll. The change in status PPP claims is overblown, and the internals point entirely to a different conclusion than a heightened chance of an upset.
Update: For some reason, I confused Madison County with Dane County.
WI Ping List!!
One day to go!!!
Another poll out had Walker up 53-47.
Axelrod was on Fox this morning. He said they had hundreds of attorneys there to protect voter’s rights, which means they have hundreds there to insure voter fraud.
PPP working hard to make it look like the race is tightening to encourage turnout. We’ve seen that play before and it rarely works.
PPP is the worst poll out there and I believe have been sued in the past for fabricating numbers.
If a pee pee poll has Walker up 3 you can figure he is really up more than double that.
I predict we will see a “poll” later today or early tomorrow that either has the race tied or Barrett up by one or two. The liberals need to manufacture something to make their supporters think they have a chance tomorrow, so they don’t stay home and make the race a total blowout for Walker. The libs know that if they can keep the race within one or two percent they can make up the difference with fraud and court challenges.
State DOJ has unites in all large cities in WI.
Van Hollen isn’t going to put up with the attempts.
"Gin up the vote fraud"
When the commie ‘RATS decide to send in hundreds of “lawyers”, you know voter fraud by the commie DemocRATS is going to be rampant.
Actually the unions would want to discourage turnout, not encourage it. They have a better chance with a light turnout because their members and cronies are more likely to show up and vote.
Voter fraud in this election will be legend.
I hope Walker supporters are prepared to “Breitbart” polling stations and file election fraud suits milliseconds after voting starts.
Correct. The unions will not only give their employees time off from work to vote, they will give many of them the entire day so they can hold signs outside the polling places and intimidate people who are walking in.
I'm concerned about reports of people being bused in from out of state to vote - is this possible? Maybe some locals can shed some light on the situation.
A heavy turnout is what we need. If this time tomorrow, we are hearing about long lines, we can breathe a little easier.
It might be asking too much but I want to see a double-digit blowout here. If Walker only wins by a few points, I will be disappointed.
That’s not good for the Dems. PPP is a Democratic push poll.
I don’t remember a state election where the whole country was more emotionally involved.
Wish I could vote for Scott.
I guess it has already started. FNC just did a piece about an investigation being opened in Delafield (?). Great. We’re living in a banana republic here. A vote in this country really doesn’t mean much anymore.
He needs at least five points to cover the Slave Party GUTVF effort. This is worrisome.
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I see dead people, and they are voting by the thousands. Eric Holder will make sure they vote unimpeded.
PPP had better pray it falls right on their mew numbers 50-47 or they are in for the fisking of a lifetime...
Wisconsin allows voter registration at the polls. All you need is a piece of mail (could be stolen), such as a utility bill, with your name and address on it to register. The old standard was that you had to live in WI 10 days before your registered. Walker's legislature changed that to 29 days residence. You used to be able to have someone "vouch" for you if you didn't have proper (untility bill) ID, but that has changed also. That is, unless those changes were also put on hold when the Dane CO. Judge suspended our voter ID law.
Many of the registrars are very lax. It has been a scam here for forever. I remember that there were ads run in Dane Co. (Madison) during the Bush elections of 2000 and 2004 to pay students to take a bus to MN to register and vote because MN has the same practice of same day registration. We were supposed to have provisions (federal) in place by 2008 so that drivers' licences would be cross checked so you couldn't be registered in more than one community. But the Dem Governor at that time scuttled those laws and they never went into effect. IOW you can vote in more than one community and never be caught unless someone investigates afterwards. So sorry, too late. They spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on software that di not work on that fiasco.
There is a Milwaukee PD Task force report that accounted for almost 10,000 bogus votes in 2004. It was released to the public "by accident" during a change in police administration. The repport has since been scuttled and the task force disbanded and the people in charge were "retired" early. But, I have a copy. People who claim that there is no such thing as voter fraud either don't know what they are talking about, or they are lying.
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