Skip to comments.Return of the Bradley Effect: What if ALL the Polls Are Wrong?
Posted on 06/06/2012 6:55:27 AM PDT by TonyInOhio
Many of us oldsters remember the Bradley Effect. Back in ye olde 1982, Tom Bradley, the longtime popular mayor of Los Angeles, a nice affable fellow in my recollection, ran for California governor against a fairly faceless guy named George Deukmejian. Most of the polls including exit polls showed Bradley with a significant lead. But Deukmejian won, narrowly.
This was all put down to a form of covert racism. People didnt want to admit they wouldnt vote for a black man. As an ex-civil rights worker, I remember being hugely depressed by Bradleys defeat.
Times have changed. These days the significant racism emanates mainly from atrocious reactionary bigots and race baiters of the Al Sharpton ilk.
AdvertisementBut the Bradley Effect has resurfaced dramatically in a different manner in the Wisconsin recall vote. The polls and, yes, the exit polls as well were showing Scott Walker in a narrow victory. But he won beyond anyones prediction.
Apparently, the silent majority of Wisconsin voters didnt want to admit to nosy pollsters and anyone else that might be listening that they were opposed to runaway unions, runaway spending, or the Democratic administration. They just wanted to cast their votes. And they did.
This Bradley Effect, then, is not like the Bradley Effect of yore. Its about race to some degree, but I suspect there are much larger components of being fed up with elites of all sorts, interest groups, media groups, union groups, all sorts of groups telling the average citizen what he should and shouldnt think, openly or covertly threatening to ostracize him or her for not going along with the pervasive liberal status quo. This was a cry of Ya, basta!
So if I were a member of the Democratic Party this morning, if I were David Axelrod and his team of so-called wise men, I would be wondering what if all the polls are wrong? What if this is true across the entire country?
Even if these polls are wrong by three or four points in only a handful of states, the results of the coming election could be disastrous for the Democrats. Romney could win in a walk and bring a Republican House and Senate with him. And then, if the economy revives .
You can bet that many Democratic politicians are scratching their heads. Is it time to desert Barack Obama before its too late? (Bill Clinton evidently did long ago.) How many of them are suddenly going to be going Blue Dog?
(Surprisingly, Charles Krauthammer, of all people, missed the point on Fox when he pointed to Obamas nine-point lead in Wisconsin exit polls as indication the state would not be in play in the presidential election. It was those same exit polls that said the recall election would be close.)
And needless to say, the mainstream media are going to be doing mental cartwheels, trying to think of ways to spin this. Its not going to be easy. The sons and daughters of Grub Street are going to have to explain away a horrendous economy. They invented Barack Obama (quite literally); now they are going to have to live with him.
And make no mistake about it this election was only partly about Wisconsin. It was about the state of the nation. All eyes were glued on it.
Sure, people are tired of public sector unions holding the taxpayer hostage. Why wouldnt they be? But theyre tired of a lot more than that. This is only the beginning.
There seems to be a lot of liberal angst, as to why the exit polls and the actual results were so far off.
I was surprised that it was not a long election night vote count.
Of course, the Democrats were hoping it would be close, so they could hold back vote results from certain key areas until the end, then hit us with late results from Milwaukee or Madison. But the size of the victory for Walker meant that we would see no late night shenanigans in vote counting in this election.
Somebody once said, that if an election is not close, then the Democrats can’t cheat and steal the election.
Yesterday’s news was that the Justice Department was standing by to investigate voting irregularities. The Democrats had hundreds of lawyers standing by, to deal with an expected re-count. But the size of the victory makes all of that moot.
I see very few have noted that Walker won with a LARGER majority than he did in the general election............
Then the work to pull Romney to the right and undermining Republican elites begins.
Lots of white middle class and working class voters are NOT voting for Obama again.
Their reasons will be, at least in part, racial (he has sided with the Black Panthers in declaring a race war against all the rest of us).
Nobody wants to see what the repercussions of that will be in a second term. But they are never gonna reveal that to a pollster out of fear of being tagged a racist.
Not the same issues on the ballot, but the WI election sure looked a lot like the NC election last month. After 4 years of "unexpected" downturns, I think the Obama administration will experience it's worst and last downturn in November.
The exit polls were probably wrong on Obama by at least as much as they were wrong on Walker. Romney (yuck! Is that really the best the GOP could do???) should consider WI in play and campaign hard there. Florida, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin are all worth trying for too. Besides the fact that even Romney might win most or all of those states, contesting them seriously will force Obama to defend a lot of territory that he carried four years ago and make him weaker in the most competitive swing states.
That work begins now. We need to support 2010's new Tea Party Congressmen with our dollars - directly, not to the GOP leadership - because the rookies are at risk. We need to work in their campaigns and get out the vote efforts. We need to volunteer as poll watchers. How far left Romney could swing when that Etch-A-Sketch gets shaken up will be decided by how far right the House and the Senate swing in November.
Apparently, the silent majority of Wisconsin voters didnt want to admit to nosy pollsters and anyone else that might be listening that they were opposed to runaway unions, runaway spending, or the Democratic administration. They just wanted to cast their votes. And they did.I wish people everywhere, on both sides of the issues, would say a big fat healthy FU to pollsters every time they are questioned.
That's why we have elections, to decide public issues. We don't need pollsters.
I remember reading a science fiction story about 10 years ago set in a future where the "science of polling" was so advanced that the presidential election was decided by a single person, picked by the "polling computers" to be the best representative sample of public opinion. It was a tongue-in-cheek story that was well-written and still sticks in my mind.
I suppose there actually is a "science of polling" somewhere. But there is also "polling propaganda", and "polling for dollars", and "polling to promote your cause".
Just say no to pollsters.
Oh, we're noting it. It's just that Republicans were raised by their parents to be good sports and not gloat over their victories. Hee, hee, hee...
Bozo will not take North Carolina.
Listening to polls is how Republicans nominated the “he can win candidate” with the best chance of losing.
Maybe the exit polls were off but the pre-election polls, all except one, seemed to be dead-on with the final result.
Which category WI falls in is not entirely clear, but I suspect it is indeed in play.
As Dizzy Dean once said, “It ain’t bragging if you can do it.”.......
Well, I’d lie to the bastids, too!
I mean, really, do you know if the person asking the question is a goonion thug who’ll “cap” you to signal an attack on you, your family, or your property?
Yep, I’d lie my body parts off.
The Bradley effect is really a measure of the Ministry of Truth media spin. Which scenario is more likely: ordinary people exiting polls are prone to tell lies, or the media is? Media polls always error on the side of the Democrat, and then some.
They’ll go back to trotting out the “people voted against their own financial self-interest because they were lied to” meme.
Note to Romney:
No interviews with Katie
Resources and triage are always considerations, but contesting those states improves our chances of taking extra House/Senate seats as well. It’s worth trying and doesn’t take much more in terms of resources, since Obama would also be spreading his resources over more territory.
With the ubiquity of cell phone cameras and surveillance in general your answer to the pollster is almost certainly recorded and will get back to the folks who have retribution in mind. It is not smart to tell a pollster something you don’t want your shop steward to know.
Lie to the pollsters. Lie about white candidates. Lie about black candidates. Lie about purple, polka-dotted candidates with green hair and three eyes in the middle of both their foreheads. Do not ever say one true word to a pollster, regardless of race, color, creed or sexual orientation of the candidate.
Retaking control of the party from the Soros far left is not something that can be done overnight. However, dealing them a crushing defeat in this cycle certainly helps the more centrist donks in the longer term. This is a really interesting election.
I’ve been writing this for months. People are staying quiet about Obama because they don’t want to be harrassed and called racists. They will quietly go to the polls and vote this man out of office in November.
Yes Virginia, there is a Bradley effect, only this election it’s the Obama effect.
You're exactly correct. Someone from the Romney campaign should've paid more attention to what was happening and seeing the Walker win last night, should've made damn' sure Romney was in Wisconsin this morning standing side by side with Walker.
The fact that Romney's campaign isn't that "on the ball" with what's happening and Romney himself isn't on the ground in Wisconsin this morning speaks volumes to his campaign staff's ineptness.
BTW: KUDOS to my friends north of the Cheddar Curtain from a poor FIB stuck here in the People's Socialist RepubliK of the Sick and Illannoyed. Well done!!!
GMTA. Exactly right. Been saying the same thing since Obama got elected. Predicted on election day 2008 he'd be so bad that he'd make Jimmy Carter look good by comparison. (I think many here said the same thing on/about election day 2008 as well. It didn't take a rocket scientist to see this abysmal failure of a "President" coming.)
I've been push-polled at least 5 times now and I'll tell you outright I lie through my teeth to these pollsters. All in the hope that come Nov. 7th the lamestream liberal media wakes up with so much egg on their faces that even the most hardcore media brainwashed idiot finally wakes up.
Realistic, probably not --- but I can dream can't I?
Governor George Deukmejian was great! He cut the Budget and mailed the surplus back to the taxpayers before the legislature could come up with a way to spend it. We would have made that man King if he had run for it.
I caught Krauthammer saying that too and shook my head in disbelief that he'd miss such a simple, elegant point as you made.
BTW, have you noticed (as I have .... ) that the pollsters have stopped asking specifically WHO likely voters are intending to, or committed to voting for? The polls that I've been paying attention to focus on LIKEABILITY, which tend to give Obama higher marks than Romney.
I've been "push-polled" at least 5 times in the last 45 days here in IL. The last three times there were no questions on who I "intended" to vote for or who I was "leaning" towards. All the questions were slanted towards LIKEABILITY of Obama and UNFAVORABLE ratings of Romney.
Sure I played along and told them what they wanted to hear. What I'm going to do in the voting booth on Nov. 6th is completely different however.
I suspect a significant number of union members used your strategy in the WI voting. Whom they voted for ‘was another matter’, different from the dictates of the union thuggery bosses.
Polls - 1
Delusional Freepers - 0
And please, you don't wanna hear my rant about the "PUMAs" either.....
Just so. It gets old arguing with hysterical leftists. The ballot box is nice and quiet and you can express your true opinion there.
Take care amigo!
>>>Lie to the pollsters. Lie about white candidates. Lie about black candidates. Lie about purple, polka-dotted candidates with green hair and three eyes in the middle of both their foreheads. Do not ever say one true word to a pollster, regardless of race, color, creed or sexual orientation of the candidate.<<<
Yes, I know that the Lord and I may have a long conversation about this in the next life, but I’ve done this with practically every pollster stopping by my house or calling me up in the past 20 years. In 2008, I even gave the phone to my 7-year-old son to answer questions on a robocall survey. And if there are two of us, I’d imagine that there are many more.
I had read Monday here on FR that about 50% of Wisconsin's AFSCME members had opted out of the union and no longer had dues deducted from their paychecks, and 1/3 of WI teachers did the same, opting out of the WI Teachers Union. It didn't take much logic or reason to conclude these folks weren't going to vote to recall Walker and that the polls showing Barret closer to Walker than the outcome showed to be incorrect.
BTW: I predicted here on FR yesterday morning at 8:35AM Florida time (while I was still on vacation) that Walker would win by 9. He won by just over 8%. Not bad considering my only sources of knowledge for the WI election were the Wall Street Journal and Freepers posting from within Wisconsin.
The average of the polls prior to the election was PRECISELY correct, and the ACTUAL CNN consortium exit poll results were only off by a little bit.
Again you have to distinguish between the REPORTING ON THE POLLS and the ACTUAL POLLS themselves.
Scientific polls, be they prior to the election or exit polls, are uncannily accurate now. It’s virtually unheard of for the “polls to be wrong” except in very rare circumstances (a primary with 3+ candidates where voters are changing their opinion day to day, etc.)
Which is why elections have become so easily predictable.
The right question. This is what is scaring the dickens out of the DNC.
Only Krauthammer respects Krauthammer. He sits on that show pontificating and can’t wait to collect his check. He’s so unimpressive. He’s a media creation - gravitas - joke.
Plus there is that sweet benefit of watching the actual tears of vanquished, invested leftists.
There might be a Bradley effect with Romney as well. Like Bradley and Wilder, Romney seems to poll better than his actual election returns. With the two African-Americans, it was assumed that people were afraid of being viewed as racist. Isn’t it possible that Romney’s Mormonism might produce the same effect among Republicans?