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Wisconsin-sized polling error could mask Romney sweep of battleground states
The Daily Caller ^ | 06/07/2012 | Meagan Clark and Gage Smith

Posted on 06/08/2012 3:16:08 AM PDT by Publius804

Former Gov. Mitt Romney would collect at least 72 of the 110 electoral votes available in eight battleground states if President Barack Obama’s current polling numbers, as reported by The Huffington Post, are overstated by a mere one percent.

Romney would win that electoral majority in Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and Wisconsin if there is a one percent undercount and if undecided voters there split evenly between Romney and Obama.

That would give the former Massachusetts Gov. at least 253 — just a few votes shy of the 270 he will need to claim the White House.

But if the undecided voters break for Romney by two-thirds, Romney would win all those states’ 110 votes, pushing him well above the 270 margin and earning Obama a helicopter ride home to Illinois.

“It’s a good reminder that small shifts in votes can play a big role in electoral votes,” Trey Grayson, director of Harvard’s Institute of Politics, told The Daily Caller.

Grayson predicted that the battleground states are “likely to break together,” resulting in a strong showing for one candidate or the other. “A lot of these states have things in common,” he said, including Midwestern geography and higher than average populations of white voters.

Some Democratic-leaning organizations are concerned that the polls may overstate Obama’s support. “This is going to be a very tough year to poll,” MSNBC host Chris Matthews said Wednesday.

Tuesday’s recall vote in Wisconsin, in which incumbent Gov. Scott Walker prevailed by 6.8 percentage points, was a good indicator of how badly some pre-election polling can perform.

A June 3 poll by the Democratic-aligned Public Policy Polling firm underestimated Walker’s support by nearly 4 points. It showed Walker at 50 percent, only three points ahead of his Democratic challenger, Tom Barrett.

(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012polls; 2012swingstates; blunders; election; romney2012; romneyobama
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1 posted on 06/08/2012 3:16:25 AM PDT by Publius804
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To: Publius804

Mr. RomneyCARE INVENTED ObamaCARE and defends it.

Mr. RomneyCARE supported TARP and defends it.

I WILL NOT VOTE FOR A LIBERAL LIAR WHO
PURPORTS TO BE A “conservative”, BUT NEVER HAS BEEN.


2 posted on 06/08/2012 3:18:20 AM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: Publius804

I’m gaining more hope that the Obamanation and his administration will be beaten..
For the sake of our nation I want Obama GONE


3 posted on 06/08/2012 3:25:12 AM PDT by MEG33 (O Lord, Guide Our Nation)
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To: MEG33
I see a Troll from HP is up early this morning.

Don't worry I will vote for anybody but that America Destroyer from Kenya

4 posted on 06/08/2012 3:28:29 AM PDT by scooby321 (h tones)
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To: MEG33

It seems like the poster above you enjoys having him around!


5 posted on 06/08/2012 3:31:06 AM PDT by abercrombie_guy_38
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To: Diogenesis

and your voting for -—Who ?


6 posted on 06/08/2012 3:32:00 AM PDT by reefdiver ("Let His day's be few And another takes His office")
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To: Diogenesis

A vote that is not cast towards Romney is a vote for Obama.


7 posted on 06/08/2012 3:33:14 AM PDT by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults.)
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To: scooby321

Related news
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2892750/posts
SHOCK POLL: ROMNEY EDGES OBAMA IN MICHIGAN

I’m with the poster who said: “The Shock is how many people still support Obama”


8 posted on 06/08/2012 3:46:37 AM PDT by MEG33 (O Lord, Guide Our Nation)
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To: Diogenesis
The 'undecided vote' grows by the hour. Since in most places they don't have to vote every position odds are good they'll still be undecided after they leave the polls ~

The problem is almost anyone could beat Obama except the guy the GOPe wants to run.

The solution is to purge the GOPe.

This is called an inherent structural defect ~ not a polling error. In the race to the bottom (where more and more obama and romney voters become undecided) there comes a point where normal polling methods just don't work. No doubt we are close to that point.

9 posted on 06/08/2012 3:56:22 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Jonty30
Not exactly ~ a vote that is cast for a losing candidate is lost isn't it. And that's quite possibly what you are advocating.

You have to remember, it's more important to get a super majority in the House and the Senate than it is to put in a President ~ in the long run.

Look at what went on in the early part of the Twentieth Century. Republicans controlled the House, the Senate, 3/4 of the State Legislatures and they could pass even Constitutional Amendments at will ~ "to fix stuff' I gather. Then they ran into Woodrow Wilson who was able to defeat a split party.

That saddled us with truly dreadful constitutional amendments and a crazy man at the top. Well, the crazy guy is gone ~ but those amendments continue to plague the Republic!

10 posted on 06/08/2012 4:01:31 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Diogenesis
.


Well stated ...


Diogenesis ... You are forthwith designated as a "full member" of the Free Republic "Band of Brothers" regiment ...




The Free Republic "Band of Brothers" ...


Those who "will not" ever vote for the ...

Liberal, Lying, TEA Party Conservative hating ...

Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich (attempted) political assassin ...

and Mormon Anti-Christ Archbishop ...

and "Celestial God-Child from the Planet Kolob" (Joseph Smith wrote from Moroni's Golden Tablets that Planet Kolob is in the Constellation Cancer) ...



Carry On, Sir ...



.
11 posted on 06/08/2012 4:05:06 AM PDT by Patton@Bastogne (Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin will DEFEAT the Obama-Romney Socialist Gay-Marriage Axis of Evil)
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To: Diogenesis

I wish I had a dollar for each time you posted this same comment. Who cares who you vote for? It’s your vote so waste it any way you want. I guess you want to show us how principled you are but,frankly, I don’t give a damn.


12 posted on 06/08/2012 4:06:30 AM PDT by Russ (Repeal the 17th amendment)
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To: Publius804
earning Obama a helicopter ride home to Illinois...

That should be the fallback: a chopper to his second home. The first choice is an international jet ride back to his birthplace.

13 posted on 06/08/2012 4:07:07 AM PDT by C210N ("ask not what the candidate can do for you, ask what you can do for the candidate" (Breitbart, 2012))
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To: MEG33

ABO has been my mantra during the entire primaries. I was willing to vote for a Texas governor, a black business man and guy who’s been married three times.
Well the guy we got beat all these guys and all three of these guys now support his election over our present disaster.
Four more years of Obama and we won’t have to worry about voting.


14 posted on 06/08/2012 4:07:54 AM PDT by Recon Dad (Gas & Petroleum Junkie)
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To: Russ
I wish you did, too.

Mr. RomneyCARE is neither a conservative nor an honest man.
Which draws you to him?

15 posted on 06/08/2012 4:16:56 AM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: Recon Dad

I followed the same path during the primaries but ABO was my firm conviction.
Getting out our vote will be key..I am hoping we can vote as many conservatives downticket as possible and also gain control of the Senate.
No matter what we can’t undo the destruction the Obamanation has caused overnight..but we can get started if we
BEAT OBAMA!


16 posted on 06/08/2012 4:18:39 AM PDT by MEG33 (O Lord, Guide Our Nation)
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To: Publius804

If Romney was a devote Christian, we’d be screaming for him.

The man has the chance to take almost all 50 states. It could be the greatest lop sided victory of all times.

What we need is a man who will unite all Christians along all demoninations, and fight the Islamists who are looking for world domination.


17 posted on 06/08/2012 4:23:43 AM PDT by nikos1121
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To: Publius804

Polls at this point are meaningless


18 posted on 06/08/2012 4:40:00 AM PDT by uncbob
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To: Russ
.


Russ ...


In your heart you already KNOW that the "Celestial God-Child from Planet Kolob in the Constellation Cancer" ...

wants the SOCTUS to "uphold" Romney-Obama Care ...



And in your heart you already KNOW that ...

the "Celestial God-Child from Planet Kolob in the Constellation Cancer" ...


wil APPLAUD-APPLAUD-APPLAUD-APPLAUD-APPLAUD-APPLAUD-APPLAUD-APPLAUD-APPLAUD-APPLAUD-APPLAUD-APPLAUD ...


if the SCOTUS "upholds" Romney-Obama Socialist Health Care ...

and if the SCOTUS "strikes down" the Defense of Marriage Act ...




Principles matter ...

That the "Celestial God-Child from Planet Kolob in the Constellation Cancer" ...

has "no principles" ...

other than accumulating ore power, more money and more wives (each with their own Cadillac) ...

acutally "does" matter ...




Say "hello" and "go to hell" for me ... the next time you're getting your "cookie" from Ted Kennedy's favorite Mormon Archbishop ...



.
19 posted on 06/08/2012 4:42:46 AM PDT by Patton@Bastogne (Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin will DEFEAT the Obama-Romney Socialist Gay-Marriage Axis of Evil)
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To: Diogenesis
I WILL NOT VOTE FOR A LIBERAL LIAR WHO PURPORTS TO BE A “conservative”, BUT NEVER HAS BEEN.

The real problem is Romney is neither and has no real core beliefs other than getting elected
20 posted on 06/08/2012 4:44:20 AM PDT by uncbob
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