Skip to comments.Wisconsin-sized polling error could mask Romney sweep of battleground states
Posted on 06/08/2012 3:16:08 AM PDT by Publius804
Former Gov. Mitt Romney would collect at least 72 of the 110 electoral votes available in eight battleground states if President Barack Obamas current polling numbers, as reported by The Huffington Post, are overstated by a mere one percent.
Romney would win that electoral majority in Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and Wisconsin if there is a one percent undercount and if undecided voters there split evenly between Romney and Obama.
That would give the former Massachusetts Gov. at least 253 just a few votes shy of the 270 he will need to claim the White House.
But if the undecided voters break for Romney by two-thirds, Romney would win all those states 110 votes, pushing him well above the 270 margin and earning Obama a helicopter ride home to Illinois.
Its a good reminder that small shifts in votes can play a big role in electoral votes, Trey Grayson, director of Harvards Institute of Politics, told The Daily Caller.
Grayson predicted that the battleground states are likely to break together, resulting in a strong showing for one candidate or the other. A lot of these states have things in common, he said, including Midwestern geography and higher than average populations of white voters.
Some Democratic-leaning organizations are concerned that the polls may overstate Obamas support. This is going to be a very tough year to poll, MSNBC host Chris Matthews said Wednesday.
Tuesdays recall vote in Wisconsin, in which incumbent Gov. Scott Walker prevailed by 6.8 percentage points, was a good indicator of how badly some pre-election polling can perform.
A June 3 poll by the Democratic-aligned Public Policy Polling firm underestimated Walkers support by nearly 4 points. It showed Walker at 50 percent, only three points ahead of his Democratic challenger, Tom Barrett.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...
Mr. RomneyCARE INVENTED ObamaCARE and defends it.
Mr. RomneyCARE supported TARP and defends it.
I WILL NOT VOTE FOR A LIBERAL LIAR WHO
PURPORTS TO BE A “conservative”, BUT NEVER HAS BEEN.
I’m gaining more hope that the Obamanation and his administration will be beaten..
For the sake of our nation I want Obama GONE
Don't worry I will vote for anybody but that America Destroyer from Kenya
It seems like the poster above you enjoys having him around!
and your voting for -—Who ?
A vote that is not cast towards Romney is a vote for Obama.
SHOCK POLL: ROMNEY EDGES OBAMA IN MICHIGAN
I’m with the poster who said: “The Shock is how many people still support Obama”
The problem is almost anyone could beat Obama except the guy the GOPe wants to run.
The solution is to purge the GOPe.
This is called an inherent structural defect ~ not a polling error. In the race to the bottom (where more and more obama and romney voters become undecided) there comes a point where normal polling methods just don't work. No doubt we are close to that point.
You have to remember, it's more important to get a super majority in the House and the Senate than it is to put in a President ~ in the long run.
Look at what went on in the early part of the Twentieth Century. Republicans controlled the House, the Senate, 3/4 of the State Legislatures and they could pass even Constitutional Amendments at will ~ "to fix stuff' I gather. Then they ran into Woodrow Wilson who was able to defeat a split party.
That saddled us with truly dreadful constitutional amendments and a crazy man at the top. Well, the crazy guy is gone ~ but those amendments continue to plague the Republic!
I wish I had a dollar for each time you posted this same comment. Who cares who you vote for? It’s your vote so waste it any way you want. I guess you want to show us how principled you are but,frankly, I don’t give a damn.
That should be the fallback: a chopper to his second home. The first choice is an international jet ride back to his birthplace.
ABO has been my mantra during the entire primaries. I was willing to vote for a Texas governor, a black business man and guy who’s been married three times.
Well the guy we got beat all these guys and all three of these guys now support his election over our present disaster.
Four more years of Obama and we won’t have to worry about voting.
Mr. RomneyCARE is neither a conservative nor an honest man.
Which draws you to him?
I followed the same path during the primaries but ABO was my firm conviction.
Getting out our vote will be key..I am hoping we can vote as many conservatives downticket as possible and also gain control of the Senate.
No matter what we can’t undo the destruction the Obamanation has caused overnight..but we can get started if we
If Romney was a devote Christian, we’d be screaming for him.
The man has the chance to take almost all 50 states. It could be the greatest lop sided victory of all times.
What we need is a man who will unite all Christians along all demoninations, and fight the Islamists who are looking for world domination.
Polls at this point are meaningless
Go Romney even if he is not the one I was hoping for I just can not fathom the idea of Obama having 4 more years.
So like it or not my vote goes to Romney PERIOD......
I’m not “confident” but I sure have more hope than I did.
LOL..I can scroll fast right on by the usual.
Get over yourself.
Wasting your breath on this guy and one or two of his cohorts - they'd be happier for an Obama win and if Romney was running against Satan himself, they'd do everything they can to insure Romney lost. They also get very pi$$ed at anyone who tries a little bit of rational reason in response to their hate - they're as single-minded and tunnel-visioned when it comes to Romney as the average hard-core Lefty or union member that would gladly flush what's left of the Nation in order to get their way. I made my last response to one this morning and got the same type reply - irrational sound-bites about how bad Romney is.
I'll just be glad to see Obama gone before he can complete the destruction.
Didn’t Obama completely bypass congress with all of his czars? He has bypassed congress with placing commies in the DOJ, EPA, HHS, and just about every other agency to do his bidding.
The only way to fix things is to get a huge majority in both houses and someone in the white house willing to purge every last lefty from the halls of government. Short of that the lefties will continue to be like termites in a house. They will just quietly eat away at the structure until everything collapses.
Oh and I just upped the speed on my scroll bar...LOL
The whole czar bit is vastly over-inflated in importance.
"Czars" have no power of their own, they are merely special advisors to the President. Thus their "power" is only as he delegates and by definition cannot go beyond the President's statutory powers.
That is the bottom line.
“Czars” have no power of their own”
Please. Have you not noticed that there are no brakes on the “President’s statutory powers” bus? Czars have been regulating for the entirety of this regime’s destruction!
I stand by my factual observation that “czars” have no power except as delegated by the President.
Do you have some factual evidence to the contrary?
Czars might not have real power but they do have perceived power and no one seems to challenge it. Look a the recent changes in coal, green energy, autos, student loan, etc.... None that I recall passed through congress but they all where influenced by unelected people in the seats of government.
He survived a “shock and awe” primary where he was pummeled from all quarters.
He is taking on the Obama/Chicago MSM Machine and leaving them flummoxed.
He is defending against an unrelenting assault from Conservatives who can never forgive his cohabiting with Mass. Liberals.
Through it all he is showing himself to be a battle tested political warrior.
He is the anti Obama in many ways...
He has real executive experience in both public and private settings.
He is battle tested where Obama was unvetted and routinely coronated.
He understands the proper role of the Private Sector vs the Public Sector.
Mitt Romney could well be the best possible antidote to Obama-itis. I will give him my full undivided support, because most important of all...He is the only present hope that Obama will be defeated.
That statement borders on stupidity. The next president will appoint at least two Supreme Court justices and perhaps as many as four. We have repeatedly seen how a conservative majority on the court is vital to saving the country.
But this was all done by the president and under his authority (to the extent it was done with proper authority).
Whether you call the president’s minions czars or something else is pretty much irrelevant. Giving them such a title gives them no power.
If these guys exceed their authority, there are adequate responses available through litigation, congressional hearings, etc. If Americans cave in to power-grabs by those without proper authority, we have nobody but ourselves to blame for the results.
The question is not whether bureaucrats try to grab power they have no right to, that’s what such people DO. It’s whether we allow them to get away with it.
Hold your fire....keep your powder dry....aim small....fire when you see the whites of the eyes....(no racism intended)
Obama will not win a second term, he’s got a popular vote peak of about 42-43% if he runs a prefect campaign, and so far his campaign has been beyond pathetic.
He will lose, IA, IN,WI,MI,OH,FL,VA,NC and PA
The rust belt/midwest is LOST to Obama, the sole exceptions are IL, because of Chicago, and MN.. and frankly, if he keeps running his campaign the way he has been, I would not put either of those flipping too... I can tell you this, if IL and/or MN goes red, you will see many New England states fall red too.
NH will almost certainly return red this cycle.
CO as well.
The wisconsin exit polls as bad as they were, and as much as they tried to say they showed good things for Obama, they didn’t.. they showed a Tsunami coming to take out Obama.
When the pollsters asked voters, who would you vote for, Obama, Romney or Neither one, the raw results were this :
O 44, R 37 Neither 19.
The pundits, particularly leftist pundits latched onto that 7 point lead, and crowed it as Obama would win today in WI and is safe for the fall...
Sorry guys, that’s complete crap, reality is those numbers spell DISASTER for Obama in the fall, and confirm that he’s got a peak of the low 40s in the popular vote nationally. If an incumbent president only has a 44% commitment 5 months before election day, in a REAL HOT WELL TURNED OUT ELECTION IN A STATE, he’s NOT going to get more than 44% of the vote 5 months from now.
Think about it, how many of those 19% who chose neither do you think are really going to break for Obama in November? Its not like a race where no one really knows the candidate or actions/policies or has an opinion. The overwhelming majority of that 19% is going to go for the opponent, come November, Obama will be lucky if he gets 44-45% of the vote in WISCONSIN... and if he is only at 44-45% in WISCONSIN, he’s going to be nowhere near 50% in other states, and well under it in a whole lot more.
Ohio for example, he won’t even be near 44%, Nor Indiana, MI and PA will likely be higer than 44% for him, but not 6% points more... VA, NC, FL? forget about it... IA? Nope.
Those exit poll numbers point to devastation in November for Obama.
By October the discussion won’t even be about Obama, the real political discussion is going to be, will republicans win enough senate seats to be filabuster proof.
1) He can too beat him. He’s practically a lame duck already.
2) Agree on the supermajority—but think that with the SM, the congress won’t be sending him any liberal bills to sign.
3) You don’t have the numbers to overcome the GOP-e regarding who the candidate will be. One day we may, but not today. As a modern sage said, you go to war with the army you have, not the army you wish you had, nor the army you hope to have one day.
4) I wish you guys wouldn’t bash him here. Please adopt Jim Robinson’s policy and if you can’t say anything nice, don’t say anything at all. We’re at a tipping point like in 1942, though thankfully it hasn’t come to blood yet, and what we do now is crucial for winning the war. It’s like weathering the storm - then we mount the counterattack.
I need to save your posts to keep me sane when the inevitable ups and downs come before November..
The Senate is SO important..I agree.
Mr. RomneyCARE DEFENDS Obama.
On Obama’s ineligibility.
ROmney is a coward who ONLY defends Obama’s
sick policies (and will continue them).
You have to admit, Romney is the best fighting candidate since Reagan. Not that he is in any way otherwise comparable to Reagan, but I am tired of wussy Republican candidates.
Why don’t you go post your crap over at DU. Unlike here, they would actually enjoy and appreciate it.
I'm simply practicing ~ telling the truth ~ and you feel like that's bashing.
Dude's a loser and his presence on the ticket endangers the second greatest landslide Congressional and State victory we've had in the last 72 years!
Here's the problem ~ the polls we are looking at EVERESTIMATE the number of Democrats, OVERESTIMATE the number of Independents, and UNDERESTIMATE the number of Republicans.
Obviously that's a problem and ordinarily the double counting of Democrats would serve to tell you that the Democrat is way ahead of the Republican.
However, in a Race to the Bottom where both major candidates are actually shedding voters ~ and the news is 0bama is actually getting some large percentage of Liberals to say they won't bother showing up to vote ~ the fact that the Republican is ahead of the Democrat may reflect something other than what you think.
Let's go back to basics. The first rule in winning an election is to HOLD YOUR PARTY BASE. If Obama is losing control of the base, all those Democrats and Independents (both words mean "Probably a Democrat") are going somewhere ~ at least on the poll.
That would be to ROMNEY!
Bingo, Romney is getting Democrats to tell us he's their favorite.
By now that ought to give him about a 75% popularity rating, but that's not where he's at. He's also down there below 50%, above Obama (in these polls biased toward Democrats), but still not winning territory ~ you gotta' get 50% + to win in most races.
So, why isn't he getting the big numbers in the polls? Could it be that a large percent of his apparent polling strength is nothing more than Democrats, with just a smidgen of Republicans saying 'Hey, yeah, he's my boy'?
We need to watch these polls carefully to see what the folks call themselves who opt for Romney. If they're Democrats and not Republicans, he's got more trouble than you can believe (and 0bama and his people know that).
If otherwise that would mean entirely too many Republicans for the safety of the Republic are willing to bow down under the yoke of the GOP-e and be serfs.
What do you imagine they might do to the Supreme Court?
I Suppose others have their reasons, but in my book you only get to ill one baby and you're off the ticket!
Historically the biggest problem has been where a President used a special advisor to beat in the head of a Cabinet officer to do something just a tad stretch beyond what the law (passed by Congress) allowed.
0bama is probably well into that practice.
Later on, after this regime moves on, we can probably go back and prosecute some of these guys for their excesses.