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Wisconsin-sized polling error could mask Romney sweep of battleground states
The Daily Caller ^ | 06/07/2012 | Meagan Clark and Gage Smith

Posted on 06/08/2012 3:16:08 AM PDT by Publius804

Former Gov. Mitt Romney would collect at least 72 of the 110 electoral votes available in eight battleground states if President Barack Obama’s current polling numbers, as reported by The Huffington Post, are overstated by a mere one percent.

Romney would win that electoral majority in Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and Wisconsin if there is a one percent undercount and if undecided voters there split evenly between Romney and Obama.

That would give the former Massachusetts Gov. at least 253 — just a few votes shy of the 270 he will need to claim the White House.

But if the undecided voters break for Romney by two-thirds, Romney would win all those states’ 110 votes, pushing him well above the 270 margin and earning Obama a helicopter ride home to Illinois.

“It’s a good reminder that small shifts in votes can play a big role in electoral votes,” Trey Grayson, director of Harvard’s Institute of Politics, told The Daily Caller.

Grayson predicted that the battleground states are “likely to break together,” resulting in a strong showing for one candidate or the other. “A lot of these states have things in common,” he said, including Midwestern geography and higher than average populations of white voters.

Some Democratic-leaning organizations are concerned that the polls may overstate Obama’s support. “This is going to be a very tough year to poll,” MSNBC host Chris Matthews said Wednesday.

Tuesday’s recall vote in Wisconsin, in which incumbent Gov. Scott Walker prevailed by 6.8 percentage points, was a good indicator of how badly some pre-election polling can perform.

A June 3 poll by the Democratic-aligned Public Policy Polling firm underestimated Walker’s support by nearly 4 points. It showed Walker at 50 percent, only three points ahead of his Democratic challenger, Tom Barrett.

(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012polls; 2012swingstates; blunders; election; romney2012; romneyobama
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1 posted on 06/08/2012 3:16:25 AM PDT by Publius804
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To: Publius804

Mr. RomneyCARE INVENTED ObamaCARE and defends it.

Mr. RomneyCARE supported TARP and defends it.

I WILL NOT VOTE FOR A LIBERAL LIAR WHO
PURPORTS TO BE A “conservative”, BUT NEVER HAS BEEN.


2 posted on 06/08/2012 3:18:20 AM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: Publius804

I’m gaining more hope that the Obamanation and his administration will be beaten..
For the sake of our nation I want Obama GONE


3 posted on 06/08/2012 3:25:12 AM PDT by MEG33 (O Lord, Guide Our Nation)
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To: MEG33
I see a Troll from HP is up early this morning.

Don't worry I will vote for anybody but that America Destroyer from Kenya

4 posted on 06/08/2012 3:28:29 AM PDT by scooby321 (h tones)
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To: MEG33

It seems like the poster above you enjoys having him around!


5 posted on 06/08/2012 3:31:06 AM PDT by abercrombie_guy_38
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To: Diogenesis

and your voting for -—Who ?


6 posted on 06/08/2012 3:32:00 AM PDT by reefdiver ("Let His day's be few And another takes His office")
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To: Diogenesis

A vote that is not cast towards Romney is a vote for Obama.


7 posted on 06/08/2012 3:33:14 AM PDT by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults.)
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To: scooby321

Related news
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2892750/posts
SHOCK POLL: ROMNEY EDGES OBAMA IN MICHIGAN

I’m with the poster who said: “The Shock is how many people still support Obama”


8 posted on 06/08/2012 3:46:37 AM PDT by MEG33 (O Lord, Guide Our Nation)
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To: Diogenesis
The 'undecided vote' grows by the hour. Since in most places they don't have to vote every position odds are good they'll still be undecided after they leave the polls ~

The problem is almost anyone could beat Obama except the guy the GOPe wants to run.

The solution is to purge the GOPe.

This is called an inherent structural defect ~ not a polling error. In the race to the bottom (where more and more obama and romney voters become undecided) there comes a point where normal polling methods just don't work. No doubt we are close to that point.

9 posted on 06/08/2012 3:56:22 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Jonty30
Not exactly ~ a vote that is cast for a losing candidate is lost isn't it. And that's quite possibly what you are advocating.

You have to remember, it's more important to get a super majority in the House and the Senate than it is to put in a President ~ in the long run.

Look at what went on in the early part of the Twentieth Century. Republicans controlled the House, the Senate, 3/4 of the State Legislatures and they could pass even Constitutional Amendments at will ~ "to fix stuff' I gather. Then they ran into Woodrow Wilson who was able to defeat a split party.

That saddled us with truly dreadful constitutional amendments and a crazy man at the top. Well, the crazy guy is gone ~ but those amendments continue to plague the Republic!

10 posted on 06/08/2012 4:01:31 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Diogenesis
.


Well stated ...


Diogenesis ... You are forthwith designated as a "full member" of the Free Republic "Band of Brothers" regiment ...




The Free Republic "Band of Brothers" ...


Those who "will not" ever vote for the ...

Liberal, Lying, TEA Party Conservative hating ...

Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich (attempted) political assassin ...

and Mormon Anti-Christ Archbishop ...

and "Celestial God-Child from the Planet Kolob" (Joseph Smith wrote from Moroni's Golden Tablets that Planet Kolob is in the Constellation Cancer) ...



Carry On, Sir ...



.
11 posted on 06/08/2012 4:05:06 AM PDT by Patton@Bastogne (Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin will DEFEAT the Obama-Romney Socialist Gay-Marriage Axis of Evil)
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To: Diogenesis

I wish I had a dollar for each time you posted this same comment. Who cares who you vote for? It’s your vote so waste it any way you want. I guess you want to show us how principled you are but,frankly, I don’t give a damn.


12 posted on 06/08/2012 4:06:30 AM PDT by Russ (Repeal the 17th amendment)
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To: Publius804
earning Obama a helicopter ride home to Illinois...

That should be the fallback: a chopper to his second home. The first choice is an international jet ride back to his birthplace.

13 posted on 06/08/2012 4:07:07 AM PDT by C210N ("ask not what the candidate can do for you, ask what you can do for the candidate" (Breitbart, 2012))
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To: MEG33

ABO has been my mantra during the entire primaries. I was willing to vote for a Texas governor, a black business man and guy who’s been married three times.
Well the guy we got beat all these guys and all three of these guys now support his election over our present disaster.
Four more years of Obama and we won’t have to worry about voting.


14 posted on 06/08/2012 4:07:54 AM PDT by Recon Dad (Gas & Petroleum Junkie)
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To: Russ
I wish you did, too.

Mr. RomneyCARE is neither a conservative nor an honest man.
Which draws you to him?

15 posted on 06/08/2012 4:16:56 AM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: Recon Dad

I followed the same path during the primaries but ABO was my firm conviction.
Getting out our vote will be key..I am hoping we can vote as many conservatives downticket as possible and also gain control of the Senate.
No matter what we can’t undo the destruction the Obamanation has caused overnight..but we can get started if we
BEAT OBAMA!


16 posted on 06/08/2012 4:18:39 AM PDT by MEG33 (O Lord, Guide Our Nation)
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To: Publius804

If Romney was a devote Christian, we’d be screaming for him.

The man has the chance to take almost all 50 states. It could be the greatest lop sided victory of all times.

What we need is a man who will unite all Christians along all demoninations, and fight the Islamists who are looking for world domination.


17 posted on 06/08/2012 4:23:43 AM PDT by nikos1121
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To: Publius804

Polls at this point are meaningless


18 posted on 06/08/2012 4:40:00 AM PDT by uncbob
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To: Russ
.


Russ ...


In your heart you already KNOW that the "Celestial God-Child from Planet Kolob in the Constellation Cancer" ...

wants the SOCTUS to "uphold" Romney-Obama Care ...



And in your heart you already KNOW that ...

the "Celestial God-Child from Planet Kolob in the Constellation Cancer" ...


wil APPLAUD-APPLAUD-APPLAUD-APPLAUD-APPLAUD-APPLAUD-APPLAUD-APPLAUD-APPLAUD-APPLAUD-APPLAUD-APPLAUD ...


if the SCOTUS "upholds" Romney-Obama Socialist Health Care ...

and if the SCOTUS "strikes down" the Defense of Marriage Act ...




Principles matter ...

That the "Celestial God-Child from Planet Kolob in the Constellation Cancer" ...

has "no principles" ...

other than accumulating ore power, more money and more wives (each with their own Cadillac) ...

acutally "does" matter ...




Say "hello" and "go to hell" for me ... the next time you're getting your "cookie" from Ted Kennedy's favorite Mormon Archbishop ...



.
19 posted on 06/08/2012 4:42:46 AM PDT by Patton@Bastogne (Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin will DEFEAT the Obama-Romney Socialist Gay-Marriage Axis of Evil)
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To: Diogenesis
I WILL NOT VOTE FOR A LIBERAL LIAR WHO PURPORTS TO BE A “conservative”, BUT NEVER HAS BEEN.

The real problem is Romney is neither and has no real core beliefs other than getting elected
20 posted on 06/08/2012 4:44:20 AM PDT by uncbob
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To: nikos1121
.

Sounds like you're looking for the GOP's (victorious) 2012 "Newt and Sarah" ticket ...


.
21 posted on 06/08/2012 4:44:38 AM PDT by Patton@Bastogne (Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin will DEFEAT the Obama-Romney Socialist Gay-Marriage Axis of Evil)
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To: MEG33
I have confidence that the American people are now awake to the danger we face. It started with the TEA Party and the 2010 election and now the results in Wisconsin reinforce my belief that we are about to see a major shift in our country's direction.
22 posted on 06/08/2012 4:49:18 AM PDT by Recon Dad (Gas & Petroleum Junkie)
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To: Patton@Bastogne
I almost thought I was logged in at the DU after reading some of this crap...

Go Romney even if he is not the one I was hoping for I just can not fathom the idea of Obama having 4 more years.

So like it or not my vote goes to Romney PERIOD......

23 posted on 06/08/2012 4:59:02 AM PDT by Johnny_cash
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To: Recon Dad

I’m not “confident” but I sure have more hope than I did.


24 posted on 06/08/2012 5:07:20 AM PDT by MEG33 (O Lord, Guide Our Nation)
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To: Johnny_cash

LOL..I can scroll fast right on by the usual.
BEAT OBAMA


25 posted on 06/08/2012 5:12:08 AM PDT by MEG33 (O Lord, Guide Our Nation)
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To: Diogenesis

Get over yourself.


26 posted on 06/08/2012 5:34:44 AM PDT by billhilly
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To: Jonty30
A vote that is not cast towards Romney is a vote for Obama.

Wasting your breath on this guy and one or two of his cohorts - they'd be happier for an Obama win and if Romney was running against Satan himself, they'd do everything they can to insure Romney lost. They also get very pi$$ed at anyone who tries a little bit of rational reason in response to their hate - they're as single-minded and tunnel-visioned when it comes to Romney as the average hard-core Lefty or union member that would gladly flush what's left of the Nation in order to get their way. I made my last response to one this morning and got the same type reply - irrational sound-bites about how bad Romney is.

I'll just be glad to see Obama gone before he can complete the destruction.

27 posted on 06/08/2012 5:34:52 AM PDT by trebb ("If a man will not work, he should not eat" From 2 Thes 3)
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To: muawiyah

Didn’t Obama completely bypass congress with all of his czars? He has bypassed congress with placing commies in the DOJ, EPA, HHS, and just about every other agency to do his bidding.

The only way to fix things is to get a huge majority in both houses and someone in the white house willing to purge every last lefty from the halls of government. Short of that the lefties will continue to be like termites in a house. They will just quietly eat away at the structure until everything collapses.


28 posted on 06/08/2012 5:38:50 AM PDT by Dutch Boy
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To: MEG33
I have come to the conclusion that if the post has the Romney name in it you can bet that "Diogenesis" will be here with all of his negativity.

Oh and I just upped the speed on my scroll bar...LOL

29 posted on 06/08/2012 5:41:27 AM PDT by Johnny_cash
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To: Dutch Boy
Didn’t Obama completely bypass congress with all of his czars?

The whole czar bit is vastly over-inflated in importance.

"Czars" have no power of their own, they are merely special advisors to the President. Thus their "power" is only as he delegates and by definition cannot go beyond the President's statutory powers.

30 posted on 06/08/2012 5:52:11 AM PDT by Sherman Logan
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To: trebb
I'll just be glad to see Obama gone before he can complete the destruction.

That is the bottom line.

31 posted on 06/08/2012 5:54:59 AM PDT by jersey117
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To: Sherman Logan

“Czars” have no power of their own”

Please. Have you not noticed that there are no brakes on the “President’s statutory powers” bus? Czars have been regulating for the entirety of this regime’s destruction!


32 posted on 06/08/2012 6:05:58 AM PDT by battletank
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To: battletank

I stand by my factual observation that “czars” have no power except as delegated by the President.

Do you have some factual evidence to the contrary?


33 posted on 06/08/2012 6:11:49 AM PDT by Sherman Logan
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To: Sherman Logan

Czars might not have real power but they do have perceived power and no one seems to challenge it. Look a the recent changes in coal, green energy, autos, student loan, etc.... None that I recall passed through congress but they all where influenced by unelected people in the seats of government.


34 posted on 06/08/2012 6:13:57 AM PDT by Dutch Boy
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To: Publius804
Mitt Romney is showing himself to be a strong resilient candidate.

He survived a “shock and awe” primary where he was pummeled from all quarters.

He is taking on the Obama/Chicago MSM Machine and leaving them flummoxed.

He is defending against an unrelenting assault from Conservatives who can never forgive his cohabiting with Mass. Liberals.

Through it all he is showing himself to be a battle tested political warrior.

He is the anti Obama in many ways...

He has real executive experience in both public and private settings.

He is battle tested where Obama was unvetted and routinely coronated.

He understands the proper role of the Private Sector vs the Public Sector.

Mitt Romney could well be the best possible antidote to Obama-itis. I will give him my full undivided support, because most important of all...He is the only present hope that Obama will be defeated.

35 posted on 06/08/2012 6:18:41 AM PDT by Awgie (truth is always stranger than fiction)
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To: Johnny_cash
.


"some of this crap..."


Well ... we're partially in agreement here ... over the 2012 pile of "political crap" ...

and perhaps over how the Juan McCain - Ted Kennedy wing of the GOP constantly serves-up the Usual Suspects "steaming pile" of candidates ...

that attempt to force (blackmail) we Conservatives to choose between Satan and his brother Lucifer ...

... or in Mormon Theology ...

Satan and his kid-brother ... Jesus Christ ...



"Def-Con-1 Mormon Blasphemy Alert" ...



.
36 posted on 06/08/2012 6:20:25 AM PDT by Patton@Bastogne (Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin will DEFEAT the Obama-Romney Socialist Gay-Marriage Axis of Evil)
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To: muawiyah
You have to remember, it's more important to get a super majority in the House and the Senate than it is to put in a President ~ in the long run.

That statement borders on stupidity. The next president will appoint at least two Supreme Court justices and perhaps as many as four. We have repeatedly seen how a conservative majority on the court is vital to saving the country.

37 posted on 06/08/2012 6:36:56 AM PDT by CMAC51
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To: Dutch Boy

Quite true.

But this was all done by the president and under his authority (to the extent it was done with proper authority).

Whether you call the president’s minions czars or something else is pretty much irrelevant. Giving them such a title gives them no power.

If these guys exceed their authority, there are adequate responses available through litigation, congressional hearings, etc. If Americans cave in to power-grabs by those without proper authority, we have nobody but ourselves to blame for the results.

The question is not whether bureaucrats try to grab power they have no right to, that’s what such people DO. It’s whether we allow them to get away with it.


38 posted on 06/08/2012 6:59:51 AM PDT by Sherman Logan
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To: Publius804

Hold your fire....keep your powder dry....aim small....fire when you see the whites of the eyes....(no racism intended)


39 posted on 06/08/2012 7:13:01 AM PDT by spokeshave
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To: MEG33

Obama will not win a second term, he’s got a popular vote peak of about 42-43% if he runs a prefect campaign, and so far his campaign has been beyond pathetic.

He will lose, IA, IN,WI,MI,OH,FL,VA,NC and PA

The rust belt/midwest is LOST to Obama, the sole exceptions are IL, because of Chicago, and MN.. and frankly, if he keeps running his campaign the way he has been, I would not put either of those flipping too... I can tell you this, if IL and/or MN goes red, you will see many New England states fall red too.

NH will almost certainly return red this cycle.

CO as well.

The wisconsin exit polls as bad as they were, and as much as they tried to say they showed good things for Obama, they didn’t.. they showed a Tsunami coming to take out Obama.

When the pollsters asked voters, who would you vote for, Obama, Romney or Neither one, the raw results were this :
O 44, R 37 Neither 19.

The pundits, particularly leftist pundits latched onto that 7 point lead, and crowed it as Obama would win today in WI and is safe for the fall...

Sorry guys, that’s complete crap, reality is those numbers spell DISASTER for Obama in the fall, and confirm that he’s got a peak of the low 40s in the popular vote nationally. If an incumbent president only has a 44% commitment 5 months before election day, in a REAL HOT WELL TURNED OUT ELECTION IN A STATE, he’s NOT going to get more than 44% of the vote 5 months from now.

Think about it, how many of those 19% who chose neither do you think are really going to break for Obama in November? Its not like a race where no one really knows the candidate or actions/policies or has an opinion. The overwhelming majority of that 19% is going to go for the opponent, come November, Obama will be lucky if he gets 44-45% of the vote in WISCONSIN... and if he is only at 44-45% in WISCONSIN, he’s going to be nowhere near 50% in other states, and well under it in a whole lot more.

Ohio for example, he won’t even be near 44%, Nor Indiana, MI and PA will likely be higer than 44% for him, but not 6% points more... VA, NC, FL? forget about it... IA? Nope.

Those exit poll numbers point to devastation in November for Obama.

By October the discussion won’t even be about Obama, the real political discussion is going to be, will republicans win enough senate seats to be filabuster proof.


40 posted on 06/08/2012 7:20:02 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: muawiyah; Diogenesis

1) He can too beat him. He’s practically a lame duck already.
2) Agree on the supermajority—but think that with the SM, the congress won’t be sending him any liberal bills to sign.
3) You don’t have the numbers to overcome the GOP-e regarding who the candidate will be. One day we may, but not today. As a modern sage said, you go to war with the army you have, not the army you wish you had, nor the army you hope to have one day.
4) I wish you guys wouldn’t bash him here. Please adopt Jim Robinson’s policy and if you can’t say anything nice, don’t say anything at all. We’re at a tipping point like in 1942, though thankfully it hasn’t come to blood yet, and what we do now is crucial for winning the war. It’s like weathering the storm - then we mount the counterattack.

Thank you


41 posted on 06/08/2012 7:26:30 AM PDT by ichabod1 (Cheney/Rumsfeld 2012)
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To: HamiltonJay

I need to save your posts to keep me sane when the inevitable ups and downs come before November..
The Senate is SO important..I agree.


42 posted on 06/08/2012 7:37:20 AM PDT by MEG33 (O Lord, Guide Our Nation)
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To: Awgie

Mr. RomneyCARE DEFENDS Obama.

On RomneyCARE.

On TARP.

On Obama’s ineligibility.

ROmney is a coward who ONLY defends Obama’s
sick policies (and will continue them).


43 posted on 06/08/2012 7:42:03 AM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: Diogenesis

You have to admit, Romney is the best fighting candidate since Reagan. Not that he is in any way otherwise comparable to Reagan, but I am tired of wussy Republican candidates.


44 posted on 06/08/2012 7:45:14 AM PDT by zeebee (Where would I be right now if all my dreams had come true? -Mason Jennings)
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To: Diogenesis

Why don’t you go post your crap over at DU. Unlike here, they would actually enjoy and appreciate it.


45 posted on 06/08/2012 8:35:06 AM PDT by Lucas McCain
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To: ichabod1
You know this is one puke we will need to be bashing from Day 1. The man is not trustworthy.

I'm simply practicing ~ telling the truth ~ and you feel like that's bashing.

Dude's a loser and his presence on the ticket endangers the second greatest landslide Congressional and State victory we've had in the last 72 years!

46 posted on 06/08/2012 8:40:22 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: HamiltonJay
Do not be fooled by early polling. It's almost always wrong ~ disastrously wrong if you believe it.

Here's the problem ~ the polls we are looking at EVERESTIMATE the number of Democrats, OVERESTIMATE the number of Independents, and UNDERESTIMATE the number of Republicans.

Obviously that's a problem and ordinarily the double counting of Democrats would serve to tell you that the Democrat is way ahead of the Republican.

However, in a Race to the Bottom where both major candidates are actually shedding voters ~ and the news is 0bama is actually getting some large percentage of Liberals to say they won't bother showing up to vote ~ the fact that the Republican is ahead of the Democrat may reflect something other than what you think.

Let's go back to basics. The first rule in winning an election is to HOLD YOUR PARTY BASE. If Obama is losing control of the base, all those Democrats and Independents (both words mean "Probably a Democrat") are going somewhere ~ at least on the poll.

That would be to ROMNEY!

Bingo, Romney is getting Democrats to tell us he's their favorite.

By now that ought to give him about a 75% popularity rating, but that's not where he's at. He's also down there below 50%, above Obama (in these polls biased toward Democrats), but still not winning territory ~ you gotta' get 50% + to win in most races.

So, why isn't he getting the big numbers in the polls? Could it be that a large percent of his apparent polling strength is nothing more than Democrats, with just a smidgen of Republicans saying 'Hey, yeah, he's my boy'?

We need to watch these polls carefully to see what the folks call themselves who opt for Romney. If they're Democrats and not Republicans, he's got more trouble than you can believe (and 0bama and his people know that).

If otherwise that would mean entirely too many Republicans for the safety of the Republic are willing to bow down under the yoke of the GOP-e and be serfs.

47 posted on 06/08/2012 8:53:43 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: CMAC51
Your response is IGNANT in the extreme. With a super majority the Congress can select anyone they need as President.

What do you imagine they might do to the Supreme Court?

48 posted on 06/08/2012 8:57:12 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Awgie
Give me a break ~ you are so full of it. My concern with Romney is very simple ~ he's a baby killer and he participated in electoral cheating in Virginia where I live.

I Suppose others have their reasons, but in my book you only get to ill one baby and you're off the ticket!

49 posted on 06/08/2012 8:59:54 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Dutch Boy
The problem with "czars" is the name ~ the concept has been around a very long time and has been used by every President even if what it was called was a "kitchen cabinet'. They are simply part of the level of government where you have appointed officers ~

Historically the biggest problem has been where a President used a special advisor to beat in the head of a Cabinet officer to do something just a tad stretch beyond what the law (passed by Congress) allowed.

0bama is probably well into that practice.

Later on, after this regime moves on, we can probably go back and prosecute some of these guys for their excesses.

50 posted on 06/08/2012 9:04:56 AM PDT by muawiyah
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