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Wisconsin-sized polling error could mask Romney sweep of battleground states
The Daily Caller ^ | 06/07/2012 | Meagan Clark and Gage Smith

Posted on 06/08/2012 3:16:08 AM PDT by Publius804

Former Gov. Mitt Romney would collect at least 72 of the 110 electoral votes available in eight battleground states if President Barack Obama’s current polling numbers, as reported by The Huffington Post, are overstated by a mere one percent.

Romney would win that electoral majority in Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and Wisconsin if there is a one percent undercount and if undecided voters there split evenly between Romney and Obama.

That would give the former Massachusetts Gov. at least 253 — just a few votes shy of the 270 he will need to claim the White House.

But if the undecided voters break for Romney by two-thirds, Romney would win all those states’ 110 votes, pushing him well above the 270 margin and earning Obama a helicopter ride home to Illinois.

“It’s a good reminder that small shifts in votes can play a big role in electoral votes,” Trey Grayson, director of Harvard’s Institute of Politics, told The Daily Caller.

Grayson predicted that the battleground states are “likely to break together,” resulting in a strong showing for one candidate or the other. “A lot of these states have things in common,” he said, including Midwestern geography and higher than average populations of white voters.

Some Democratic-leaning organizations are concerned that the polls may overstate Obama’s support. “This is going to be a very tough year to poll,” MSNBC host Chris Matthews said Wednesday.

Tuesday’s recall vote in Wisconsin, in which incumbent Gov. Scott Walker prevailed by 6.8 percentage points, was a good indicator of how badly some pre-election polling can perform.

A June 3 poll by the Democratic-aligned Public Policy Polling firm underestimated Walker’s support by nearly 4 points. It showed Walker at 50 percent, only three points ahead of his Democratic challenger, Tom Barrett.

(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012polls; 2012swingstates; blunders; election; romney2012; romneyobama
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To: nikos1121
.

Sounds like you're looking for the GOP's (victorious) 2012 "Newt and Sarah" ticket ...


.
21 posted on 06/08/2012 4:44:38 AM PDT by Patton@Bastogne (Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin will DEFEAT the Obama-Romney Socialist Gay-Marriage Axis of Evil)
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To: MEG33
I have confidence that the American people are now awake to the danger we face. It started with the TEA Party and the 2010 election and now the results in Wisconsin reinforce my belief that we are about to see a major shift in our country's direction.
22 posted on 06/08/2012 4:49:18 AM PDT by Recon Dad (Gas & Petroleum Junkie)
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To: Patton@Bastogne
I almost thought I was logged in at the DU after reading some of this crap...

Go Romney even if he is not the one I was hoping for I just can not fathom the idea of Obama having 4 more years.

So like it or not my vote goes to Romney PERIOD......

23 posted on 06/08/2012 4:59:02 AM PDT by Johnny_cash
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To: Recon Dad

I’m not “confident” but I sure have more hope than I did.


24 posted on 06/08/2012 5:07:20 AM PDT by MEG33 (O Lord, Guide Our Nation)
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To: Johnny_cash

LOL..I can scroll fast right on by the usual.
BEAT OBAMA


25 posted on 06/08/2012 5:12:08 AM PDT by MEG33 (O Lord, Guide Our Nation)
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To: Diogenesis

Get over yourself.


26 posted on 06/08/2012 5:34:44 AM PDT by billhilly
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To: Jonty30
A vote that is not cast towards Romney is a vote for Obama.

Wasting your breath on this guy and one or two of his cohorts - they'd be happier for an Obama win and if Romney was running against Satan himself, they'd do everything they can to insure Romney lost. They also get very pi$$ed at anyone who tries a little bit of rational reason in response to their hate - they're as single-minded and tunnel-visioned when it comes to Romney as the average hard-core Lefty or union member that would gladly flush what's left of the Nation in order to get their way. I made my last response to one this morning and got the same type reply - irrational sound-bites about how bad Romney is.

I'll just be glad to see Obama gone before he can complete the destruction.

27 posted on 06/08/2012 5:34:52 AM PDT by trebb ("If a man will not work, he should not eat" From 2 Thes 3)
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To: muawiyah

Didn’t Obama completely bypass congress with all of his czars? He has bypassed congress with placing commies in the DOJ, EPA, HHS, and just about every other agency to do his bidding.

The only way to fix things is to get a huge majority in both houses and someone in the white house willing to purge every last lefty from the halls of government. Short of that the lefties will continue to be like termites in a house. They will just quietly eat away at the structure until everything collapses.


28 posted on 06/08/2012 5:38:50 AM PDT by Dutch Boy
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To: MEG33
I have come to the conclusion that if the post has the Romney name in it you can bet that "Diogenesis" will be here with all of his negativity.

Oh and I just upped the speed on my scroll bar...LOL

29 posted on 06/08/2012 5:41:27 AM PDT by Johnny_cash
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To: Dutch Boy
Didn’t Obama completely bypass congress with all of his czars?

The whole czar bit is vastly over-inflated in importance.

"Czars" have no power of their own, they are merely special advisors to the President. Thus their "power" is only as he delegates and by definition cannot go beyond the President's statutory powers.

30 posted on 06/08/2012 5:52:11 AM PDT by Sherman Logan
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To: trebb
I'll just be glad to see Obama gone before he can complete the destruction.

That is the bottom line.

31 posted on 06/08/2012 5:54:59 AM PDT by jersey117
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To: Sherman Logan

“Czars” have no power of their own”

Please. Have you not noticed that there are no brakes on the “President’s statutory powers” bus? Czars have been regulating for the entirety of this regime’s destruction!


32 posted on 06/08/2012 6:05:58 AM PDT by battletank
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To: battletank

I stand by my factual observation that “czars” have no power except as delegated by the President.

Do you have some factual evidence to the contrary?


33 posted on 06/08/2012 6:11:49 AM PDT by Sherman Logan
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To: Sherman Logan

Czars might not have real power but they do have perceived power and no one seems to challenge it. Look a the recent changes in coal, green energy, autos, student loan, etc.... None that I recall passed through congress but they all where influenced by unelected people in the seats of government.


34 posted on 06/08/2012 6:13:57 AM PDT by Dutch Boy
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To: Publius804
Mitt Romney is showing himself to be a strong resilient candidate.

He survived a “shock and awe” primary where he was pummeled from all quarters.

He is taking on the Obama/Chicago MSM Machine and leaving them flummoxed.

He is defending against an unrelenting assault from Conservatives who can never forgive his cohabiting with Mass. Liberals.

Through it all he is showing himself to be a battle tested political warrior.

He is the anti Obama in many ways...

He has real executive experience in both public and private settings.

He is battle tested where Obama was unvetted and routinely coronated.

He understands the proper role of the Private Sector vs the Public Sector.

Mitt Romney could well be the best possible antidote to Obama-itis. I will give him my full undivided support, because most important of all...He is the only present hope that Obama will be defeated.

35 posted on 06/08/2012 6:18:41 AM PDT by Awgie (truth is always stranger than fiction)
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To: Johnny_cash
.


"some of this crap..."


Well ... we're partially in agreement here ... over the 2012 pile of "political crap" ...

and perhaps over how the Juan McCain - Ted Kennedy wing of the GOP constantly serves-up the Usual Suspects "steaming pile" of candidates ...

that attempt to force (blackmail) we Conservatives to choose between Satan and his brother Lucifer ...

... or in Mormon Theology ...

Satan and his kid-brother ... Jesus Christ ...



"Def-Con-1 Mormon Blasphemy Alert" ...



.
36 posted on 06/08/2012 6:20:25 AM PDT by Patton@Bastogne (Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin will DEFEAT the Obama-Romney Socialist Gay-Marriage Axis of Evil)
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To: muawiyah
You have to remember, it's more important to get a super majority in the House and the Senate than it is to put in a President ~ in the long run.

That statement borders on stupidity. The next president will appoint at least two Supreme Court justices and perhaps as many as four. We have repeatedly seen how a conservative majority on the court is vital to saving the country.

37 posted on 06/08/2012 6:36:56 AM PDT by CMAC51
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To: Dutch Boy

Quite true.

But this was all done by the president and under his authority (to the extent it was done with proper authority).

Whether you call the president’s minions czars or something else is pretty much irrelevant. Giving them such a title gives them no power.

If these guys exceed their authority, there are adequate responses available through litigation, congressional hearings, etc. If Americans cave in to power-grabs by those without proper authority, we have nobody but ourselves to blame for the results.

The question is not whether bureaucrats try to grab power they have no right to, that’s what such people DO. It’s whether we allow them to get away with it.


38 posted on 06/08/2012 6:59:51 AM PDT by Sherman Logan
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To: Publius804

Hold your fire....keep your powder dry....aim small....fire when you see the whites of the eyes....(no racism intended)


39 posted on 06/08/2012 7:13:01 AM PDT by spokeshave
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To: MEG33

Obama will not win a second term, he’s got a popular vote peak of about 42-43% if he runs a prefect campaign, and so far his campaign has been beyond pathetic.

He will lose, IA, IN,WI,MI,OH,FL,VA,NC and PA

The rust belt/midwest is LOST to Obama, the sole exceptions are IL, because of Chicago, and MN.. and frankly, if he keeps running his campaign the way he has been, I would not put either of those flipping too... I can tell you this, if IL and/or MN goes red, you will see many New England states fall red too.

NH will almost certainly return red this cycle.

CO as well.

The wisconsin exit polls as bad as they were, and as much as they tried to say they showed good things for Obama, they didn’t.. they showed a Tsunami coming to take out Obama.

When the pollsters asked voters, who would you vote for, Obama, Romney or Neither one, the raw results were this :
O 44, R 37 Neither 19.

The pundits, particularly leftist pundits latched onto that 7 point lead, and crowed it as Obama would win today in WI and is safe for the fall...

Sorry guys, that’s complete crap, reality is those numbers spell DISASTER for Obama in the fall, and confirm that he’s got a peak of the low 40s in the popular vote nationally. If an incumbent president only has a 44% commitment 5 months before election day, in a REAL HOT WELL TURNED OUT ELECTION IN A STATE, he’s NOT going to get more than 44% of the vote 5 months from now.

Think about it, how many of those 19% who chose neither do you think are really going to break for Obama in November? Its not like a race where no one really knows the candidate or actions/policies or has an opinion. The overwhelming majority of that 19% is going to go for the opponent, come November, Obama will be lucky if he gets 44-45% of the vote in WISCONSIN... and if he is only at 44-45% in WISCONSIN, he’s going to be nowhere near 50% in other states, and well under it in a whole lot more.

Ohio for example, he won’t even be near 44%, Nor Indiana, MI and PA will likely be higer than 44% for him, but not 6% points more... VA, NC, FL? forget about it... IA? Nope.

Those exit poll numbers point to devastation in November for Obama.

By October the discussion won’t even be about Obama, the real political discussion is going to be, will republicans win enough senate seats to be filabuster proof.


40 posted on 06/08/2012 7:20:02 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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