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To: MEG33

Obama will not win a second term, he’s got a popular vote peak of about 42-43% if he runs a prefect campaign, and so far his campaign has been beyond pathetic.

He will lose, IA, IN,WI,MI,OH,FL,VA,NC and PA

The rust belt/midwest is LOST to Obama, the sole exceptions are IL, because of Chicago, and MN.. and frankly, if he keeps running his campaign the way he has been, I would not put either of those flipping too... I can tell you this, if IL and/or MN goes red, you will see many New England states fall red too.

NH will almost certainly return red this cycle.

CO as well.

The wisconsin exit polls as bad as they were, and as much as they tried to say they showed good things for Obama, they didn’t.. they showed a Tsunami coming to take out Obama.

When the pollsters asked voters, who would you vote for, Obama, Romney or Neither one, the raw results were this :
O 44, R 37 Neither 19.

The pundits, particularly leftist pundits latched onto that 7 point lead, and crowed it as Obama would win today in WI and is safe for the fall...

Sorry guys, that’s complete crap, reality is those numbers spell DISASTER for Obama in the fall, and confirm that he’s got a peak of the low 40s in the popular vote nationally. If an incumbent president only has a 44% commitment 5 months before election day, in a REAL HOT WELL TURNED OUT ELECTION IN A STATE, he’s NOT going to get more than 44% of the vote 5 months from now.

Think about it, how many of those 19% who chose neither do you think are really going to break for Obama in November? Its not like a race where no one really knows the candidate or actions/policies or has an opinion. The overwhelming majority of that 19% is going to go for the opponent, come November, Obama will be lucky if he gets 44-45% of the vote in WISCONSIN... and if he is only at 44-45% in WISCONSIN, he’s going to be nowhere near 50% in other states, and well under it in a whole lot more.

Ohio for example, he won’t even be near 44%, Nor Indiana, MI and PA will likely be higer than 44% for him, but not 6% points more... VA, NC, FL? forget about it... IA? Nope.

Those exit poll numbers point to devastation in November for Obama.

By October the discussion won’t even be about Obama, the real political discussion is going to be, will republicans win enough senate seats to be filabuster proof.


40 posted on 06/08/2012 7:20:02 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: HamiltonJay

I need to save your posts to keep me sane when the inevitable ups and downs come before November..
The Senate is SO important..I agree.


42 posted on 06/08/2012 7:37:20 AM PDT by MEG33 (O Lord, Guide Our Nation)
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To: HamiltonJay
Do not be fooled by early polling. It's almost always wrong ~ disastrously wrong if you believe it.

Here's the problem ~ the polls we are looking at EVERESTIMATE the number of Democrats, OVERESTIMATE the number of Independents, and UNDERESTIMATE the number of Republicans.

Obviously that's a problem and ordinarily the double counting of Democrats would serve to tell you that the Democrat is way ahead of the Republican.

However, in a Race to the Bottom where both major candidates are actually shedding voters ~ and the news is 0bama is actually getting some large percentage of Liberals to say they won't bother showing up to vote ~ the fact that the Republican is ahead of the Democrat may reflect something other than what you think.

Let's go back to basics. The first rule in winning an election is to HOLD YOUR PARTY BASE. If Obama is losing control of the base, all those Democrats and Independents (both words mean "Probably a Democrat") are going somewhere ~ at least on the poll.

That would be to ROMNEY!

Bingo, Romney is getting Democrats to tell us he's their favorite.

By now that ought to give him about a 75% popularity rating, but that's not where he's at. He's also down there below 50%, above Obama (in these polls biased toward Democrats), but still not winning territory ~ you gotta' get 50% + to win in most races.

So, why isn't he getting the big numbers in the polls? Could it be that a large percent of his apparent polling strength is nothing more than Democrats, with just a smidgen of Republicans saying 'Hey, yeah, he's my boy'?

We need to watch these polls carefully to see what the folks call themselves who opt for Romney. If they're Democrats and not Republicans, he's got more trouble than you can believe (and 0bama and his people know that).

If otherwise that would mean entirely too many Republicans for the safety of the Republic are willing to bow down under the yoke of the GOP-e and be serfs.

47 posted on 06/08/2012 8:53:43 AM PDT by muawiyah
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