Skip to comments.Here Are The Historical Odds Of A Deeper Pullback...
Posted on 06/08/2012 3:59:20 AM PDT by blam
Here Are The Historical Odds Of A Deeper Pullback...
Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism
June 8, 2012
Heres some pretty good historical data via Raymond James and Market Montage on the odds of a deeper market decline:
Some interesting data from Jeff Saut of Raymond James if you are a data hound like I am.
Since 1928 there have been 294 pullbacks of at least 5%. Ninety four of them have been moderate (>10%), 43 have been severe (>15%) and 25 have been bear markets (>20%).
So in a statistical sense once you hit the 5% threshold your chances of a 10%, 15%, and 20%+ drop are as follows:
Normally Id say its unwise to data mine market facts like this and extrapolate out, but 294 data points is pretty broad as far as these kinds of statistics go
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
This ain’t the past anymore. We were on a gold standard prior to 1971. There is no historical equivalent to project from when the Fed prints money at will and we are at 100% GDP and top it off with the worst president in American history and it is a bad mix!
Not bad for a stock offered at $ 38 in an IPO that was realistically valued at around a mere $ 11 or $ 12.
How many $$$$$$$$ Billions did the insiders make ____ ?
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