Skip to comments.Gallup: Obama’s 10 points off his 2008 pace with Jewish voters
Posted on 06/09/2012 10:13:45 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Since he knows more about Judaism than any other president, you would think he’d be uniquely equipped to craft a winning pitch.
Big deal or no?
Why it might be a big deal: 64 percent among Jewish voters is a very, very weak showing for a modern Democratic nominee. Compare and contrast. O took 78 percent of their vote four years ago; Kerry, Gore, and Clinton all cracked 75 percent, and Jimmy Carter raked in 71 percent when he was elected in 1976. The only nominees who failed to reach 70 percent in the past 35 years were, er, Dukakis, Mondale, and Carter in 1980, the last of whom nearly lost the Jewish vote to Reagan. In fact, The One's take of 64 percent here matches what Dukakis got against Bush in 1988. Good omen.
Why it might not be a big deal: Just because he's at 64 percent today doesn't mean he'll be at 64 on election day. Some Jewish Democrats who are disaffected now will come home, just as disaffected non-Jewish Dems will. Then again, Romney’s already at 29 percent, fully seven points more than McCain ended up banking on election day 2008. If he can simply hold onto them, Obama has a problem. Another point, though: Apart from Florida, which I think most people expect to go red this year regardless, is there any swing state where the Jewish population is large enough that a 10-point dip in Obama’s support might matter? Here’s a population breakdown. There are only two purple states (again, except for Florida) where the number of Jewish residents exceeds two percent. One is Pennsylvania, which is a decidedly bluish shade of purple, and the other is … Nevada, which is key to Rove’s “3-2-1″ approach to winning the election. Hmmmmmm. Maybe this is a biggish deal after all.
And of course, Jews aren’t the only significant religious minority in Nevada. More from Gallup:
Mormons make up roughly six percent of the population in Nevada, so that spike isn’t insignificant. Nevada was always going to be a major play for Team Mitt because of the Mormon presence there plus the fact of the state’s famously high unemployment rate, but now that we know O’s considerably off the pace with Jewish voters too, it looks irresistible.
I thought Jews make up around 3 percent of the population.
He should be 100 points off.
Not surprising the Jews are still rock solid behind Obama. Most American Jews are democrats first and foremost. Everything else amounts to minor details. Israel barely registers on their issue meter.
Not just Jewish votes but if Bam loses the same small percentages among other groups it all adds up. Romney’s gotta take the fight and energy to him unlike McLame in 2008. Always tough to beat a sitting president but the Bam is ripe for the pickin’s.
An incumbent who hopes to win in November needs to be way ahead in the summer, as undecideds will break heavily towards the challenger.
Obama will well and truly underwhelm this fall among most Americans. He may have a few polarized pickings in his pocket, such as black America in general.
Every year there are tens of thousands of new ORTHODOX babies. They have on average an astonishing 7.5 children per family (U.S. overall rate is 2.2 including Hispanics). And these religious Jews vote overwhelmingly for Republicans. According to the Republican Jewish Coalition, Orthodox in 2004 supported Bush over Kerry 68%-32%. In 20 years, they will be a majority of American Jews, and it will be a larger, Republican bloc. Something to look forward to. Of course right now we are still saddled with hundreds of thousands of elderly Jewish FDR-worshippers in Florida. But in 10 years they will all be dead.
We are already aware that Obama is now having trouble raising cash. Indeed, it is widely assumed that he arranged his endorsement of gay marriage to substitute a new source of campaign contributions for those which were drying up. It is difficult to overestimate the effect on a national Democrat campaign of Jewish money drying up.
There is also a moral or propaganda element to this apparent Jewish defection from its historic home within the Democrat party. The moral influence of Jewish intelligentsia as opinion makers extends through journalism, academia, and media. If it is all right to be opposed to Obama within the meetings Hadassa it eventually will be politically correct to fail to support Obama in the newsroom.
Once that happens, the bond between Jewish America and African-Americans which controls so much at the ballot box will attenuate.
If it is 10 points in Florida this could be fatal to his chances in the Sunshine State.
After the last few years, how can the Jews be so blind?Given the way the President has cornered Israel and lapped up to the American Jewish community, the figure should be no greater than 12% Jewish support. What will it take for these folks to wake up? I am a Jew and I just don’t get it...
Very pleased to read this.
Actually, a while back it was 2% of the population. But Jews have an average higher IQ than the average American bear, network and prefer one another in opportunity, elitist position, careers and education which has put them way over their representative (social and economic) quota in elitist power. So, that is why the Jewish vote matters.
sounds rather special to me.
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