Skip to comments.CALIFORNIA: Stunning vote gap in Contra Costa supervisor race traced to multiple factors
Posted on 06/09/2012 8:20:19 PM PDT by SmithL
The 32½-point margin of victory in Danville Mayor Candace Andersen's win Tuesday over college board President Tomi Van de Brooke in the Contra Costa supervisor election is a stunner.
Internal polling reportedly showed Andersen's strong ballot designation -- mayor and attorney -- gave her a boost but "not 30 points worth," one political consultant observed wryly.
Some of those points were undoubtedly due to Andersen's higher name recognition in the San Ramon Valley, where she has held public office for nearly a decade and where the population outnumbers the northern part of the district in Lamorinda.
But other than a handful of precincts in Van de Brooke's hometown of Orinda, Andersen won, and won big everywhere.
Record-low turnout in a presidential primary was clearly a factor.
Van de Brooke's campaign strategy relied on 40 percent turnout, and the county will be lucky to come within a few points of that figure. She and her supporters poured considerable effort and money into the week leading up to the election.
By then, however, many voters had already cast ballots by mail and insufficient numbers showed up at the polls to fill the gap.
Van de Brooke and her supporters also seriously miscalculated how much social issues matter to voters in a supervisor race, even in a supervisorial district and county dominated by Democrats.
Van de Brooke began telling voters early in the race that she was the only woman in the race who favored abortion rights and same-sex marriage. Democratic, labor and women's rights organizations pounded home the same message in mailers delivered the final week.
To Andersen's credit, her response was direct and pitch-perfect: Yes, she personally opposes abortion and same-sex marriage, but county supervisors have no jurisdiction in either arena, and she has no social issues agenda.
(Excerpt) Read more at contracostatimes.com ...
We worked our @$$ off. Many a neighborhood was walked, many a doorbell rung, many phones dialed.
Foot troops do work.
Thank you, Drango, a victory even in a small county is a victory for us all.
Thank you Drango.....could you drop by Oakland next election?
Obviously a message to the Mittbots ~ but they won’t listen to it. I think they imagine they can win a campaign at the national level with nothing but TV advertising ~ even though just about no one younger than 34 bothers watching TV anymore.
I have lived in many areas where my vote didn't count ... lets just say that I was one of very few Republican voters.
I have wondered about parking near the entrance of a precinct and just counting or videoing the people who come and go.
While not suitable for the legal system, I used to wonder about how a local precinct could show 350 voters in 12 hours, when each time I drove by it looked deserted.
Based on my time living in a large urban area, the concept of an 80% turnout in any area near me was ridiculous. Nobody cared enough to vote that was under 50!
That line just screamed at me - even in placed like Racine WI. Just doesn't pass the smell test.
I remember when Deullums was my congress critter. (shudder)
Thanks and well done.
Candace Anderson is a Republican?
There are still some Republican areas in Contra Costa County, but that one can win this big is surprising. Here is her campaign website:
“Candace Anderson is a Republican?”
Yes, she is, but her opponent was the local union stooge. In the years I’ve lived here the Socialists have been able to “dribble” over the hill from Berzerkeley and infest both Orinda and now Lafayette. That said, the San Ramon Valley is still Republican, and that comprises the bulk of her district.
She distributed literature with a barcode on it. You can take your handy dandy cellphone and with the right ap in place SCAN such a barcode and go immediately to the cellphone compatible website of the candidate.
If you are the candidate, you should be able to arrange before hand to PAY FOR THE CALLS in case there are any charges applicable ~ most folks with "data access" are unlimited, but some people rarely use the limited "data" available on a per use basis so they'd appreciate it.
Work it out with the web site company how any costs with cell companies will be dealt with ~ you should do that so you get the voter to look at your story board and face ~ I'd use a young face BTW.
This approach does two very important things for you ~ it puts you in contact with young people who don't watch TV or read newspapers. That's most of them.
The other important thing is you cut out the middle men in the political campaign advertising business.
I"d be happy to put you in contact with some really low cost guys who can advise you in every particular ~ starting today as soon as I give them a call. And this gal who just won? I'm calling her kid too. Dude has a future. Move over Dick Morris!
Counting who has more yard signs is still the most effective method.
This little trick bypassed newspapers, elaborate mailings, magazines, radio and TV advertising and the rental of expensive halls for direct 'meet the public' face to face meetings (and all that entails).
She got in touch with youth!
Then she won what may be one of the least expensive campaigns on record.
Let's see the birth certificate.
Candace says during her stump speech that her kid works for google. The newspaper article sorta mentions it. So they put together a very advanced social media and google ad campaign.