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Race for Gabby Giffords’ Old Seat Shapes Up for Hard Fight
ABC News ^ | June 8, 2012 | Elizabeth Hartfield

Posted on 06/10/2012 9:50:53 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued

The race, which has been under way since April, is between Republican nominee Jesse Kelly, a former Marine who ran against Giffords in 2010, and Ron Barber, Giffords’ former district director. Barber himself was injured in the shooting outside the Safeway grocery store on Jan. 8, 2011. He was shot in the leg and the cheek.

Giffords has not been very present in Barber’s campaign. She was featured on a mailer paid for by the Democratic Party of Arizona, and she will be campaigning for the candidate this weekend. However, regardless of Giffords level of involvement, the race was never going to be in the bag for Democrats.

“It’s a district that’s pretty much split right down the middle, and one of the reasons that Gabby Giffords was able to get elected and re-elected was that she was a more conservative Democrat,” said Brinton Milward, director of the National Institute for Civil Discourse, who also directs the University of Arizona’s School of Government and Public Policy.

The 8th district, currently located in the southeastern portion of the state and includes part of Tuscan, leans Republican. It has gone red in the past three presidential elections. Giffords narrowly won her re-election in 2010 against Kelly, 30, ultimately defeating him by a margin of about 2 percentage points.

(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: Arizona
KEYWORDS: gabbygiffords; giffords; jessekelly; tucsonshooting

1 posted on 06/10/2012 9:50:59 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued
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To: Clintonfatigued
Tuscan?

Anywhere near Tambstone?

2 posted on 06/10/2012 9:55:13 AM PDT by billorites (freepo ergo sum)
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To: SandRat; Arizona Carolyn; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Impy; GOPsterinMA; randita; Sun; ...

In spite of the high stakes, the race has mostly been a polite one. Ron Barber has a large fundraising advantage, partly offset by Jesse Kelly’s greater name I.D. Gabrielle Giffords has a lot to do with that, because Kelly doesn’t want to be seen as bashing her while Barber doesn’t want to be seen as exploiting her.


3 posted on 06/10/2012 9:56:43 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Obama and Company lied, the American economy died)
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To: billorites

Forget it. They’re on a roll. I didn’t know anybody in the race has been to Italy either.


4 posted on 06/10/2012 9:57:41 AM PDT by Cyber Liberty (Obama considers the Third World morally superior to the United States.)
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To: Clintonfatigued
Hard Fight

I think I'm feeling incited here.

Why is ABC NOOZ spreading incitement to violence?

5 posted on 06/10/2012 9:59:28 AM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: Clintonfatigued

You wouldn’t know it from the article, but the election is this Tuesday.


6 posted on 06/10/2012 10:00:45 AM PDT by Cyber Liberty (Obama considers the Third World morally superior to the United States.)
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To: Cyber Liberty

That’s not a roll, that’s ciabatta.


7 posted on 06/10/2012 10:06:02 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Jim Kolbe held the seat for a long time. While he was far from conservative, he did put an R behind his name.


8 posted on 06/10/2012 10:13:38 AM PDT by John D
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To: Clintonfatigued
The Redistricting Committee, comprised of two Republicans, two Democrats and one ‘Independent’, already fixed this one for the Democrats. They changed the boundaries to include more Dems than it had before the new Districts were drawn up. The Republicans sued to throw out the redistricting by this ‘impartial’ Committee. The ‘Independent’ turned out to be closely aligned with the Dems. They met in secret, without the Repubs on the Committee and behind closed doors, to draw up these new Districts with the help of a Group that had donated to the Obama campaign. I laugh when I hear about the Republicans gerrymandering in other states. In this red State of Arizona, the Dems pulled the wool over the eyes of the public during this redistricting. And now we are stuck with the new Districts for 10 years. There were two Districts that encompassed Tempe, Scottsdale and Fountain Hills. They were evenly split in their political affiliations but the Republicans won both, Schweikert and Quayle, in 2010. These Districts are now split the other way with Quayle and Schweikert in the same District and running against each other in the Primary. The other new District is now heavily Dem. The Dems really were successful in their redistricting of Arizona!
9 posted on 06/10/2012 10:33:34 AM PDT by originalbuckeye
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To: Clintonfatigued

I believe its reasonable to assume, absent all other information, that when an alphabet network says that a race will be “hard fought”, then a prima facie case can be made that the GOP is at least somewhat likely to win the seat.


10 posted on 06/10/2012 10:41:00 AM PDT by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: Clintonfatigued
Why did the MainStreamMedia rarely mention that Judge John Rolls, Conservative Republican, was killed at the Tucson shooing?

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2011/01/09/20110109john-roll-gabrielle-giffords-arizona-shooting.html

11 posted on 06/10/2012 10:44:50 AM PDT by preacher (Communism has only killed 100 million people: Let's give it another chance!)
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To: originalbuckeye

That’s why those “bipartisan” commissions set up under the guise of not gerrymandering are a joke if they contain anything other than an even number of Republicans and Democrats and NO ONE else. Adding on the “independent” is the Democrats way of getting another liberal on the commission without them being registered as a Democrat in order to get control of it. Obviously very partisan if they put two incumbents against each other like that.


12 posted on 06/10/2012 10:49:41 AM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: Clintonfatigued
I am greatly surprised that Giffords didn't just run again and get elected with a huge sympathy vote. South Dakota Senator Tim Johnson suffered a severe stroke in December 2006 that left him absent from his Senate seat until mid 2007. He ran for reelection in 2008, but to conceal the impairment from his stroke made no campaign appearances other than brief highly scripted events, refused to participate in any debates with his challenger and even was absent from a series of major political forums where other members of the South Dakota delegation participated. He was reelected virtually without campaigning. While his health has improved he still will not appear in any forums or debates which would reveal his disabilities. Johnson who was a more moderate Democrat made a hard turn to the left after his stroke and voted for Obamacare and Carbon Cap and Trade both highly unpopular in South Dakota.
13 posted on 06/10/2012 11:01:48 AM PDT by The Great RJ
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To: Republican Wildcat
There really is a simple formula for redistricting:

And **equal* number of people per district with perimeters of **equal** dimensions regardless of where the lines fall.

SIMPLE!!!! I could do on my little on I Mac!

The type of fraud that goes on with redistricting makes me sick. I hear the phrase, “Bipartisan Commission”, and I want to throw up.

14 posted on 06/10/2012 11:05:29 AM PDT by wintertime (Reforming a government K-12 school is like reforming an abortion mill.)
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To: Clintonfatigued

The fact that my beloved Navy named a ship after Giffords makes me want to puke. We name ships after great battles. We name ships after naval heroes. Gabby Giffords wouldn’t be fit to shine the shoes of Admiral Nimitz, yet both have ships that bear their name. Disgusting political correctness at its worst. Does everyone who has the misfortune of getting shot deserve to have a United States warship named after them?


15 posted on 06/10/2012 11:26:25 AM PDT by Astronaut
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To: billorites

the tea party and conservatives have been laying the ground work for one of our own in this district for years. that’s a big reason that giffords doesn’t have the stomach for it. jesse dismantled and weakened her last time around, and he started from zero to do it. if he gets enough support, he can win. as always, the dems reserve their big opposition for us conservatives and jesse is the real deal.

this is big. i sense another win coming if we can get out the conservative vote.


16 posted on 06/10/2012 11:52:25 AM PDT by dadfly
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To: dadfly

to help go to votejessekelly.com


17 posted on 06/10/2012 11:58:08 AM PDT by dadfly
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To: Izzy Dunne

Hard fight is code for our dim might lose.


18 posted on 06/10/2012 12:06:48 PM PDT by xp38
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To: Clintonfatigued

Jesse Kelly vs. Col. Sander’s look alike and who thinks, talks and has a backbone like Col. Klink.

I and my wife have already voted for Kelly.


19 posted on 06/10/2012 12:07:53 PM PDT by SandRat (Duty - Honor - Country! What else needs said?)
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To: The Great RJ

You think Johnson would run yet again in 2014?? I suppose the Dems will beg him too since if he retires this means a possible GOP pickup. If he does run then I hope they don’t let him win uncontested again.


20 posted on 06/10/2012 12:20:01 PM PDT by TNCMAXQ
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To: Astronaut
Does everyone who has the misfortune of getting shot deserve to have a United States warship named after them?

WAS she shot?

THIS is the 9mm hydrostatic shock that supposedly happened to her brains and skull, when it's repeated in ballistic gelatin:

Remember, she's a gun-grabbing Democrat, friends from way back with Hillary. And now, only a year later from experiencing what reliably turns every other human being's brains into a red jello mess, she's stumping for a candidate?

Why, it's literally a miracle!

Yeah, sure it is.

:: spit ::

21 posted on 06/10/2012 12:50:42 PM PDT by Talisker (One who commands, must obey.)
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To: Talisker

You think she is faking it??


22 posted on 06/10/2012 12:57:44 PM PDT by HereInTheHeartland ("The writing is on the wall - Unions are screwed. reformist2 10:04 PM #27"\)
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To: The Great RJ

Is Tim Johnson expected to run for reelection again in 2014? I’ve read that Mike Rounds or Krist Noem may run that year, regardless of Johnson’s condition.


23 posted on 06/10/2012 1:07:14 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Obama and Company lied, the American economy died)
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To: originalbuckeye

I live in north Chandler, which is SE of Tempe. My district includes Tempe, Most of central Phoenix barrios and Sunnyslope, which is in north Phoenix (Dunlap)! I won’t see a GOP Rep for a decade.


24 posted on 06/10/2012 1:13:08 PM PDT by Cyber Liberty (Obama considers the Third World morally superior to the United States.)
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To: Clintonfatigued
the race has mostly been a polite one.

What ads have you been watching?

25 posted on 06/10/2012 2:44:16 PM PDT by HiJinx (He who controls the water, controls life.)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Some liberal acquaintances I follow on Twitter were losing their minds because they saw a Kelly ad where he was carrying an M16 (or maybe M4, I don’t know) and called himself “a warrior.” They were hyperventilating because it HAD A GUN IN IT and was in SUCH bad taste after the Giffords shooting and OH MY GOD HOW COULD HE DO THAT HE’S SUCH AN AWFUL PERSON I HOPE HE DIES!!!1!11!!

Liberals. It’s so easy to make their widdle heads explode.

}:-)4


26 posted on 06/10/2012 3:47:13 PM PDT by Moose4 (...and walk away.)
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To: The Great RJ
I am greatly surprised that Giffords didn't just run again and get elected with a huge sympathy vote.

From what I have seen and read, Giffords is in much worse shape than Johnson. Her appearances have been very carefully scripted and orchestrated. I think she has serious difficulties intellectually and physically. The Dems kept up this charade for a long time even suggesting that she might run for senator to fill Kyl's seat when he retires this year.

IMO Johnson should retire but the Dems don't want to lose the seat.

27 posted on 06/10/2012 4:13:46 PM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar

I saw Giffords on tv today, climbing up on stage for a campaign appearance. It looked like she was very dazed and confused and her husband was physically directing her where to walk by guiding her arm.


28 posted on 06/10/2012 4:21:59 PM PDT by nascarnation
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To: originalbuckeye; Republican Wildcat; Cyber Liberty; Clintonfatigued; randita; AuH2ORepublican; ...

You are right, redistricting sucked.

But you overstate it. This district now renumbered the 2nd went from 52% McCain in 2008 to 50%, only slightly worse. Also keep in mind that special election is for the old 8th district seat. Kelly would be helped by incumbency for the November election if he wins the special.

The new 9th went 51-47 for Obama. They have an edge but that’s not a seat we can’t win.

The first district which was abandoned by it’s freshman GOP incumbent for a safe seat went from 54% McCain to 51%. The race will probably be between former State Sen Jonathan Paton and Former Rat Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick.

I would rate the November elections for the new first and second district races as tossups and the ninth district as lean D.


29 posted on 06/10/2012 6:44:29 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: catnipman
when the media cries that its a "hard fought" or "close" they usually mean that its in the bag for the rat....

hope I'm wrong....because I'm financially invested in Kelly....

30 posted on 06/10/2012 9:03:27 PM PDT by cherry
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