Stay out of the Syrian Morass

danielpipes.org ^ | 13JUN12 | Daniel Pipes

[Zhang Fei]

This is all part of the inter-Islamic War that has been under weigh for a while in the Moslem world since the Shi'ites got into a position of power with the fall of the Shah in Iran.

Alawites aren't Muslims. They were classified as dhimmis under Turkish (Ottoman) rule and had to pay the special poll tax like all other non-Muslims. The Mufti of Jerusalem was induced (bribed?) to make a special declaration that Alawites were Muslims in order to reduce the sting to Sunni Arab sensibilities in Syria of being ruled by ruled by Alawites, who are, notwithstanding the fatwa, still considered heretics and apostates by both Shias and Sunnis. Ultimately, Assad stands with Iran not for religious reasons (because there are none), but because unlike the West, Iran won't pressure him to democratize, which would spell ruin for him as an Alawite leader in a country that is 60% Sunni Arab.

[Zhang Fei]

Been saying it all along. We have Moslem Botherhood vs. Ba’ath. We gain more by doing nothing and letting them kill each other than we do by intervening. Time to kick back, turn on the TV, eat popcorn.

The Nazis were evenly matched with the Soviets. The Baath Party (aka Arab Nationalists) is basically 2.5m strong, if you count all the Alawites, compared with 1b Sunni Muslims. The way you set one enemy against another is not to stand aside while one enemy defeats the other, but to support the weak against the strong. Given that the Baath record is of protecting Christians, and the Sunni record is of slaughtering them, from the Islamic wars of conquest in the 7th century against the Eastern Roman Empire up to the Armenian genocide in the 20th, I'm inclined to support the Baath over the Sunnis.

[Little Ray]

There are not a billion Sunnis in Syria.
And the while the Moslem Botherhood has the bodies, the Syrian Government has the guns and air support. With sufficient ruthlessness, they will be able to hold on for quite a while and kill a quite lot of MBs.
In the end, it Syria will collapse in civil disorder, and cease to be a military threat to anyone (thought it may become a security threat and terrorist haven - more than it is already).
That, with no American treasure or lives thrown away, is about the best outcome for which we can hope.

[arthurus]

Alawites are, indeed, Moslem. They are a tiny sect and one of several such Shia derived sects. If the Shia are Moslem, which many Sunni claim they are not, and if the Sunni are Moslem, which many Shia claim they are not, then the Alawites are Moslem as are the Dervishes and all the rest.