Skip to comments.Michigan Poll: Obama 47% - Romney 46% (RV)
Posted on 06/14/2012 9:39:01 AM PDT by GlockThe Vote
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Here is the poll at RCP
Not good news for Obama. Probably good news for Romney.
Its a big sample too.
If this is even close to being true - Obama is going to get landslided.
Coupled with Wisconsin... Good news
guess he’s got to start spending some his campaign bucks in WI and MI. Too bad!
Females polled at 60%.
That means Romney is winning Michigan.
Dems 41% Reps 33% Inds. 26%
If Romney can win Michigan, then he can afford to lose Ohio.
A win is a win whether it’s a landslide or not. Michigan opens up another path to victory for Romney.
I agree with you. A large sample of RV’s means that Obama is losing everyday Michiganders. LV’s should have Romney clearly ahead.
I personally don’t think it means anything in June. Obama hasn’t even fueled up the Machine yet.
I’m A B O
Anything to get this thug out of office.
Of course you don’t. You are ABMR despite the fact that he is our only chance possible to oust gaybama.
>>Im A B O
I completely agree with Rush’s analysis that this is gonna be a blow-out.
The problem with Obama is not the fact that NC blacks are 20% for Romney, it’s not the massacre of the Wisconsin recall, it’s the fact that many of these people who SAY they will vote for Obama will STAY HOME.
We’re talking 15% of Dem voters STAYING HOME and the independents voting Rep.
We’re talking a 300+ republicans in the House and 60 in the Senate.
The problem will be keeping the big money republicans in line.
Unfortunate for you this isn’t the DU and I can still speak unpopular truths.
LOL. That’s funny considering most of the ABMR crowd would fit in far easier at DU, HP, kos, etc than on sites where the majority of people actually want to oust obama from office.
“If Romney can win Michigan, then he can afford to lose Ohio.”
“If Romney can win Michigan, then he can afford to lose Ohio.”
If Romney wins Michigan, chances are he wins Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. That would be huge.
I think the biggest “problem” state is Virginia this year. There have been some seismic demographic shifts in that state since 2004.
I doubt Florida and North Carolina are going to be a battleground states this year. I’d be shocked if Romney has to campaign very hard there. I expect to see most of the “aggressive” campaigning in Ohio and Virginia this year.
If you see Romney and Obama campaigning hard in Wisconsin and Michigan, Obama is done unless Romney eats both kittens and puppies on live TV. It’ll have to be BOTH too ... I think Romney could win while firing down a tiny Maine Coon or Chow Chow with a side of corn :-) ... just not both!!!
Obama is stopping at a horse’s house in NYC today ... he must be going after the animal lover’s vote.
I'd be happier with a state wide random poll of likely voters.
I think these pollsters are too smart for their own good.
It’s too early for me to get too excited about polls..but I am loving the trend.
Its not out of line with some other polls coming out. Don’t know about their reputation, but RCP is including it in their weightings.
so tell me. Is it or is it not June?
Do you really believe Obama has fired all guns?
You can throw your little tantrum all you want but you are acting exactly like every liberal on the planet when you try to deny or distract from simple facts.
besides, the next coming of Jesus/Reagan could hardly be impeded by me so why are you so terrified of the most basic facts. I think your faith is a lot weaker than you proclaim.
Other than one democrat poll, gaybama is polling around 46%-47%
That is a freaking disaster for an incumbent who has staked his whole candidacy on saving the auto industry.
Romney has been relatively quiet lately. I think that’s smart. Obama and his ilk have done plenty to shoot themselves in the foot lately and are doing Romney’s dirty work for him. Romney doesn’t get his hands dirty... saving it until he really needs to. And it keeps Romney from any major gaffes to which he is prone. Add to that the help he’s recently received from Clinton.
I’m not going to deny the numbers, cripplecreek. Republicans seldom win RV polls in blue states. It bodes badly for Obama in Michigan.
I do agree that June makes it too early to tell.
I believe that the real campaign doesn’t begin until after the conventions with known VP candidates and with debates on tap.
While the entertainment media is in the tank for Obama, last night’s FoodNetword Restaurant Impossible being the first clearly Obama puff piece, they will strike in earnest after the conventions.
I expect Obama to hoard his resources until that time, and then we’re going to see the unleashing of an attack on a candidate unparalled in the history of the USA.
So, I don’t believe this is over.
I do, however, believe Michigan in play bodes well for Romney. It gives him a few more alternative paths to victory.
Its only going to get worse for obama, not better as you pray for, in order for the ABMR crowd to save face.
Remember - the AMBR crowd said Romney had ZERO chance vs obama all while never offering a viable alternative.
For the record - I voted for Ron Paul in the NYS primary, so spare me the name calling.
I agree with everything you’ve said. I just think its foolish to assume that Obammy is dead in the water.
I think he’s in real trouble AT THE MOMENT but I agree with you on the notion that it is early yet. Obama’s people are ruthless and they will fire with everything they have...we haven’t seen that yet. But it’s coming for sure.
It was a trend all throughout the primaries that the less Romney spoke, the better his poll numbers got. Just sayin’.
But I will say that laying low during the summer isn’t such a bad idea. By election day, most people are just sick to death of politicians. If he can keep his numbers in good shape then start a massive blitz in September, Romney will be better received than if he’s all over the airwaves now and people are ready to tune him out by October.
I know Romney is picking up plenty of Michigan liberals. 2 of my liberal uncles sound like they’ll be voting for him.
“I think the biggest problem state is Virginia this year. There have been some seismic demographic shifts in that state since 2004.”
Like Maryland, Virginia has had a influx of “effluent” from Washington DC.
Romney’s dad was a card-carrying rockefeller, liberal republican. They and the unions loved one another, so I’m betting that Romney has the baby boomer and senior vote locked up in Michigan. They have good memories of his dad.
When the Romney tribe campaigned to my sister in Livonia, they played up his liberal side as supporting ‘women’s rights’ unlike Santorum’s extremist agenda.
“Do you really believe Obama has fired all guns?”
No, but he’s not hit anything yet and from what I see, he’s already peaked and his turdball has started downhill and is gaining speed with each passing day. So just what are these ‘simple facts” that the rest of us are denying? Inquiring minds want to know! I guess I am just wondering why you are unhappy with what’s been happening.
I'm not worried about Virginia. VA has been safely Republican since the 2010 elections- landslide election for Governor and good wins in the House. Also, Jim Webb's quitting this year and I don't see a Dem taking that seat.
It would be hillarious if Emperor Nero Narcissus won only Illinois and California. And didn’t California pass a law to give all EV to the winner of the popular vote, or will that law be instantly struck down the second a republican wins a popular vote?
If he’s down one in Registered, that means he’s down 3-5 in Likely.
I’ve been saying for a while Obama’s peak is about 42-43% of the popular vote, and that means if he’s POLLING that way in MI, he’s done, WI is showing similar things.
He’s toast folks. With this sort of numbers, he won’t even hit 40% of election day, he’s goign to lose the entire rust belt, and south, with the exception of MN and IL.
Romney is on every side of every issue.
Etch-a-sketch meet whirling dervish.
Seriously? Can you recall one time in 2008 or2004 when the Republican had a lead in MI or WI? Moreover, this on the heels of a poll showing Romney ahead by one in MI. Probably a slight GOP lead at this point.
You're right about that, but if the tidal wave is such that Romney does take MI, OH will be "red" as well.
Li'l Barry tries putting on a brave face, but I suspect he's pooping his bloomers by now.
He can try, but for the first time in his life, Obama is facing an opponent who has deep resources... and a whole lot of cannons...of his own.
If mittens wins michigan, we are talking about a landslide and our long national nightmare ending on november 6, 2012
Virginia will be OK... just as NC will be. 2008 was a weird dynamic for this and other states. The election results of 2009 and 2010 show the good guys still have a lot of firepower left.
Wow! While I am not familiar with this polling outfit, their internals are very detailed!
Hopefully Li’l Petey Hoekstra will begin rising against Sen. Debbie Spenditnow. Last I saw, he looked pretty far back.
They took voters who had voted 70%+ of the time in recent generals and primaries. That's closer to "Likely voters" than "Registered"
I grew up in Michigan, and the breakdowns they show look pretty accurate. It's kind of a schizoid state, with SE Michigan extremely Dem, Western Michigan extremely GOP (back in the Johnson over Goldwater landslide of 1964, my county went 60-40 for Goldwater). Northern Michigan is Dem but socially conservative (think Bart Stupak, whom they fired for the crime of taking Pelosi seriously)
Agree. Don’t see how he could win MI and WI and lose OH
True - however - if he is doing well enough to carry Michigan, he’s likely to carry Ohio comfortably as that is the more Republican of the two states.
I wish people would stop viewing Republican control as a victory FOR anything. It is just a victory against Obama. He is not our only problem, however.
I’m an Ohioan, so I know that Michigan is more a blue state than is Ohio. IIRC, GWBush carried Ohio both times and Michigan neither time. I’d have to check on that to be sure, but each election was very narrow in terms of the electoral college.
So, it is more unusual for a republican to carry michigan than to carry Ohio.
Therefore, if Romney wins Michigan that makes Ohio less critical, so some different routes to victory open for Romney that weren’t there 2 weeks ago.
Romney carrying Michigan could be due to his father’s ties to Michigan and not to political momentum, so in that sense, it could be something that wouldn’t necessarily affect Ohio.
Michigan, if it flips, is minimum 313EV for Mittens on the way to a blowout...he peels off Michigan, that means he's won the South en banc, and he's taken Wisconsin too.