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Rasmussen: Romney 269, Obama 243 (Electoral Votes)
Weekly Standard ^ | 06/14/2012 | JEFFREY H. ANDERSON

Posted on 06/14/2012 11:29:37 AM PDT by nhwingut

We’re a long way from November 6 (145 days for those who are keeping score at home), but Rasmussen’s latest polling of likely voters in states across the land shows Mitt Romney currently leading President Barack Obama in the quest for electoral votes. In fact, if the 9 key swing states were each to go according to Rasmussen’s latest polling, and if the 41 other states (plus Washington, D.C.) were each to go as they would be expected to go in a tight race, Obama would have 243 electoral votes and Romney 269 — enough for a tie (and an almost inevitable victory in the House of Representatives, where the 50 state delegations would each cast one vote to determine the president).

(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; electoral; fumr; mexicans4romney; obama; obamawhite; romney; romney4nytimes
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To: Freestate316

Romney is winning. It will be 2000 all over again.

The election will go down to Florida. Ohio will be in Obama’s camp because of the fraud.

Obama is not going to win a Red State. And they haven’t taken into account that Romney is a Northeast guy. They may vote for him for that reason alone. It’s possible there will be a NE sweep.

Problem will be Southern vote. They might just stay home due to the Mormon thing.


51 posted on 06/14/2012 2:38:21 PM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (ABO 2012)
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To: Road Glide

How is going to be close when he won’t win one Southern state or Wis, Mich and Ohio? And there is nothing to indicate that he won’t win those last three. The Walker victory has taken the heart out of the RAT Party and that will become clearer as the summer (and his blunders) goes on.


52 posted on 06/14/2012 2:42:04 PM PDT by arrogantsob (Obama must Go.)
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To: arrogantsob; EQAndyBuzz; Road Glide

I mean “...there is nothing to indicate he (Oblamer) won’t LOSE those last three.”

Very few Southerners will not vote for Mitt because of his religion even if they (like me) view it with a jaundiced eye.
Getting the Disaster out of the White House is just too important.


53 posted on 06/14/2012 2:46:34 PM PDT by arrogantsob (Obama must Go.)
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To: BarnacleCenturion
Obama’s goose is cooked.

Photobucket

54 posted on 06/14/2012 3:03:44 PM PDT by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
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To: nhwingut

Obama's Satanic Hand Signals

King 0 is certainly under the control of evil Satanic powers and perverse demonic entities

55 posted on 06/14/2012 3:04:46 PM PDT by ex-Texan (Ecclesiastes 5:10 - 20)
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To: listenhillary
The group is currently pushing passage of New Jersey Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg’s recent “21st Century WPA Act” to reinstate the New Deal employment program, and Ohio Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s attempt to rejuvenate another New Deal program with her “21st Century Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) Act.”

Heh...clear case of being careful what you wish for. WPA and CCC were run according to military style administration and discipline, which included uniforms and barracks for the laborers. Something tells me that the libs would not appreciate this one bit.

56 posted on 06/14/2012 3:05:13 PM PDT by Timber Rattler (Just say NO! to RINOS and the GOP-E)
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To: bluecat6
"Look at Obama's only re-election campaigns in 1998 and 2002."

Heck, look at his election campaigns:

In the March 19, 1996 primary election, Obama, running unopposed on the ballot.

In the November 5, 1996 general election, he ran against perennial unsuccessful candidate David Whitehead and first-time candidate Rosette Caldwell Peyton.

In the March 16, 2004 Senate primary, Obama ran against six other candidates, with only one viable candidate, Daniel Hynes, and a well funded first time candidate Blair Hull. If had been a two man race between Obama and Hynes, it may have turned out different.

Then of course, he had the Republican candidate, Jack Ryan, destroyed, and got a speaking role at the DNC.

Finally, he got to run against the hapless John McCain during a period of economic collapse and the least popular lame-duck incumbent since Johnson.

The only time he took on a real candidate in a competitive race was his 2000 primary challenge to Representative Bobby Rush, and he was crushed.

57 posted on 06/14/2012 3:05:25 PM PDT by magellan
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To: Vigilanteman

The legal language is tough for me to repeat but I believe, according to news articles, these States will only vote with the popular vote if enough States sign onto this idea to have a over 270 plurality.


58 posted on 06/14/2012 3:05:49 PM PDT by chargers fan
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To: EQAndyBuzz

I have relatives in Ole Miss and they already accepted the fact that Mitt is it. Sure, their parish members don’t like Mormons but they are smart enough to know Odumbo isn’t done destroying the country.

You don’t need to stay at the Holiday Inn to figure out that a 2nd term is just unacceptable.


59 posted on 06/14/2012 3:07:59 PM PDT by max americana
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To: nhwingut

Due to the devastating week Obama had last week, and the jobs numbers today going in the wrong direction, still, and based on some of the negative lib comments regarding Obama’s major policy speech today, I am beginning to think Obama could lose the Electoral Vote in numbers equalling McCain’s loss in 2008.


60 posted on 06/14/2012 3:11:32 PM PDT by TomGuy
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To: KarlInOhio

I’ve occasionally wondered what might happen — if there were a tie (or no candidate got a majority in the electoral college) —

Suppose no party controlled 26 out of 50 delegations. (With a number of states having 2 representatives, one of each party, this is quite possible). A deadlock in the House is quite possible.

A deadlock in the Senate is not nearly so likely. So, would the VP become President? If so, could he name his successor (as VP)? This would require only a majority vote of both houses, rather than a majority of delegations.

In short, Amendment XXV was poorly crafted. I’m surprised it didn’t anticipate a conflict like that.


61 posted on 06/14/2012 3:13:15 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: nhwingut

WAYYYY too close. How he gets one single electoral vote completely baffles me.


62 posted on 06/14/2012 3:49:55 PM PDT by Lazamataz (People who resort to Godwin's Law are just like Hitler.)
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To: magellan

True...

In a real fight he and his team - and his sponsors - are losers.

Ayers, oops, I mean Obama learned from 2000....


63 posted on 06/14/2012 3:57:50 PM PDT by bluecat6 ( "A non-denial denial. They doubt our heritage, but they don't say the story is not accurate.")
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To: Lazamataz
WAYYYY too close. How he gets one single electoral vote completely baffles me.

Consider that Maine chooses its electors proportionately. If Romney gathers enough votes to pick off 1 of Maine's 4 electors, he wins.

64 posted on 06/14/2012 4:14:23 PM PDT by Palmetto Patriot (How much better off would we be if these bastards would just leave us alone?)
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To: GlockThe Vote; All
Its only going to get WORSE for obama as we still have 4-5 jobs reportings coming out. With higher weekly UE claims - July means another bad report.

My financial gnome who follows the markets and my supplier gnome have noted ( nothing properitary here) that steel production / demand has fallen through the floor.

Which may mean worldwide slowdown and the mask coming off the false Chinese economy.

Not headwinds he needs for the next 4 or 5 months, he can't spin it...

65 posted on 06/14/2012 4:17:43 PM PDT by taildragger (( Palin / Mulally 2012 ))
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To: GeorgeWashingtonsGhost

If SCOTUS decides to overturn Obamacare, do you think that helps or hurts Obama (and vice versa, if they uphold it, does that help or hurt Zero?)


66 posted on 06/14/2012 4:21:18 PM PDT by Retired Greyhound (.)
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To: Freestate316

Can Romney take MA??


67 posted on 06/14/2012 4:25:50 PM PDT by LibFreeUSA (Pick Your Poison)
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To: Palmetto Patriot

I think your right ... Maine CD-2 (Bangor) the real Maine will go for Romney... Maine CD-1 (Portland) land of the volvo moonbats will stick with Barry. ... one precious electoral vote to go w/ New Hampshire’s 4... but that’s 5 electoral votes better than McCain got out of New England.


68 posted on 06/14/2012 4:51:35 PM PDT by pithyinme (Smiling Joe Biden... too dumb to sell used cars ... to lazy to steal them.)
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To: Palmetto Patriot

I think your right ... Maine CD-2 (Bangor) the real Maine will go for Romney... Maine CD-1 (Portland) land of the volvo moonbats will stick with Barry. ... one precious electoral vote to go w/ New Hampshire’s 4... but that’s 5 electoral votes better than McCain got out of New England.


69 posted on 06/14/2012 4:51:51 PM PDT by pithyinme (Smiling Joe Biden... too dumb to sell used cars ... to lazy to steal them.)
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To: EQAndyBuzz

zero will not win any Southern states except maybe FL, i agree though that many will stay home but it should’nt be a problem.


70 posted on 06/14/2012 8:33:44 PM PDT by BrianE ("Dead at 25 buried at 65 the average American" - Benjamin Franklin 1776)
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To: nhwingut

That’s 512 EC votes. Aren’t there 535?


71 posted on 06/14/2012 9:10:00 PM PDT by Fledermaus (Democrats are dangerous and evil. Republicans are just useless and useful idiots.)
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To: taildragger

I hear you. I pulled all my accounts into a “keep it” mode.

The feces are hitting the oscillating blades soon.


72 posted on 06/14/2012 9:14:30 PM PDT by Fledermaus (Democrats are dangerous and evil. Republicans are just useless and useful idiots.)
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To: ex-Texan
Obama's Satanic Hand Signals

King 0 is certainly under the control of evil Satanic powers and perverse demonic entities

I am an American Soldier...defender of freedom against tyranny

and when I enter the valley of death

and the agent of Satan appears at my shoulder

I will be resolute and fear no evil

And my Lord in heaven will guide my sword.

73 posted on 06/14/2012 10:12:49 PM PDT by spokeshave (The only people better off today than 4 years ago are the Prisoners at Guantanamo.)
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To: GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
The Obamacare decision will weigh heavily. The Justices know it. I also believe they are smart people and can perceive the threat of Obama to the survival of the American system of democratic representative government and separation of powers. While there are two or three totally unethical sabateurs on the bench, the majority will not ignore the issues at stake.
74 posted on 06/14/2012 10:28:28 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: dagogo redux
Many people will say they will vote for Obama so as not to appear “Racist” to the person taking the poll, and yet will vote for Romney when in the privacy of the voting booth.

The number will be greater than zero, but I doubt "many." This sounds superficially plausible but would be a very slender reed on which to depend. I ignore the possibility in my thinking.

75 posted on 06/14/2012 10:37:17 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: austinaero
Maybe they'll burn Detroit and save Mayor Bing a lot of demolition money.
76 posted on 06/14/2012 10:41:01 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: HiTech RedNeck

What have you accomplished in your life that gives you the right to call Mitt ‘stupid’ without embarrassing yourself?


77 posted on 06/14/2012 10:43:09 PM PDT by 92nina
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To: nhwingut
My brother has had breakfast at the same diner every morning for probably the last 15 years. At 6:00 am, it's usually about the same 25 people or so in there eating. He said he knew Obama was going to win the last time around because that's all people talked about. He and one other guy were the lone Republican votes. He couldn't believe it. This from a pretty conservative area.

Last week as talk turned to Politics, being the shy guy he is (not), my brother stood up and asked how many were voting for the Communist this time around. Silence. So he said, oh, come on, none of you had any problem telling me who you were voting for before. So this informal club of 6:00 am diner goers held an election last week. Where as it was 23-2 Obama over McCain last time around, it was 25-0 Romney as of last week. My brother tells me the diner is never wrong!

78 posted on 06/14/2012 11:20:09 PM PDT by MacMattico
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To: MacMattico

Thanks for sharing this. I love “on the ground” news reports!


79 posted on 06/14/2012 11:27:38 PM PDT by thecodont
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To: 92nina

i’m not a mormon


80 posted on 06/14/2012 11:28:07 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (Let me ABOs run loose Lou!)
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To: thecodont

Glad to be of service!


81 posted on 06/14/2012 11:32:17 PM PDT by MacMattico
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To: HiTech RedNeck

You are a sad individual.


82 posted on 06/15/2012 12:52:10 AM PDT by 92nina
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To: nhwingut

How about this guy for VP.....Brian Sandoval?


83 posted on 06/15/2012 1:03:53 AM PDT by TomasUSMC ( FIGHT LIKE WW2, FINISH LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM)
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To: theDentist

It’s not surprising that I feel exactly the same way you do considering our taglines.


84 posted on 06/15/2012 3:39:24 AM PDT by waus (FUBO UFCMF, Just in case I stuttered, FUBO)
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To: TomasUSMC

Did some research on Brian Sandoval and found that he self-identifies as pro-choice.

A Catholic, yet.

Oy vey...


85 posted on 06/15/2012 3:51:34 AM PDT by txrangerette ("HOLD TO THE TRUTH...SPEAK WITHOUT FEAR." - Glenn Beck)
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To: GlockThe Vote

Still 53-43 on Intrade.


86 posted on 06/15/2012 5:20:18 AM PDT by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: txrangerette

oh. Well let me keep looking at the VP hopeful. Rubio and Walker are two I like. Rubio because of the Latino vote magnet and Walker because Americans like a fighter and a winner.


87 posted on 06/15/2012 10:19:40 AM PDT by TomasUSMC ( FIGHT LIKE WW2, FINISH LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM)
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To: nhwingut

Please, God... let this be true.


88 posted on 06/15/2012 10:32:42 AM PDT by MayflowerMadam
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To: Williams

PA people are looking for “programs” to assist the downtrodden.


89 posted on 06/15/2012 10:47:05 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Past is prologue: The American people again let us down in this election cycle.)
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To: TomasUSMC

I didn’t know that about Sandoval and had heard only glowing reports on him...”a rising star”, etc.

Surprised to find that piece of info...

Rubio is an inspirational speaker and doesn’t need a teleprompter because it seems to come from his heart.

I’m concerned that it’s too soon for Rubio. He’s young and untested, unproven it would seem. Also the fact that he’s Cuban doesn’t necessarily translate into the other Latinos flocking to him. Cubans get to stay here and become citizens because of Castro’s persecution... Others have been known to be envious of that.

About Walker, you have a good point but he’s green, too. A little seasoning might help. Plus, every time he’s asked in interviews about it, he asks Romney to please choose Paul Ryan, not him.

But they will be on the VP list, and there’s lots to weigh in the decision.


90 posted on 06/15/2012 10:59:22 AM PDT by txrangerette ("HOLD TO THE TRUTH...SPEAK WITHOUT FEAR." - Glenn Beck)
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To: magellan

Yes, Obama has been “lucky,” but many of our fellow Americans truly believe in luck and don’t like to admit they are fooled.


91 posted on 06/15/2012 11:06:49 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Past is prologue: The American people again let us down in this election cycle.)
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To: TomasUSMC

Paul Ryan and Rob Portman will also be on the list, I think.

Probably Bob McDonnell of VA.

Maybe Rick Santorum.

I would like to see Newt and Rick Perry on the list, but I doubt it. These are men of long years of experience and knowledge and are to the right of Romney.

Sarah Palin would be electrifying just being on the list.

I have heard that women will be put on the list because they are women...not only because of that but partially.

The two I’ve heard most about prospectively are Sen. Kelly Ayotte of NH and Gov. Susannah Martinez of NM.

Mitch Daniels would probably be on the list no matter who was nominated.

I’m not touting the people I’ve listed, except for Newt and Perry, just putting names out there I’m hearing, to go with Rubio and Walker.

Is there a chance for Allen West?

Quite a few are hoping there is.


92 posted on 06/15/2012 11:13:23 AM PDT by txrangerette ("HOLD TO THE TRUTH...SPEAK WITHOUT FEAR." - Glenn Beck)
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Comment #93 Removed by Moderator

To: BarnacleCenturion

“Obama’s goose is cooked.”

Way too early to get excited. There are a lot of things that can happen between now and November, Romney is not a very strong candidate, and the Obama team will have a lot of dirty tricks up their sleeves. Do not get complacent. Zero is still dangerous and still has a good chance.


94 posted on 06/15/2012 1:35:43 PM PDT by Woodsman27
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To: MacMattico
Here's a little tidbit for you.

A local candy store chain sells little tins of novelty mints with various themes. Some of the themes are political in nature.

http://www.amusemints.net/retail-tins/collections/patriotic-political/?ccm_paging_p=1

http://www.amusemints.net/retail-tins/collections/patriotic-political/?ccm_paging_p=2

http://www.amusemints.net/retail-tins/collections/patriotic-political/?ccm_paging_p=3

The Political/Patriot selection is updated according to political news and trends. What is selling? What is not selling?

Note the new Tea Party (Bachmann) and Romney tins. One of the Romney tins is disparaging but one is neutral/positive.

Note the many, many BO tins. All positive as shown on the site. And yet...

One new design I saw this afternoon on the shelf--not on the product Web site--was a tin marked with BO's visage and labeled "DissapointMINTS."

95 posted on 06/16/2012 12:01:11 AM PDT by thecodont
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To: HiTech RedNeck
No you aren’t, stupid Mitt. You simply stink less than Barack Obama.

That would make a great Romney campaign slogan:

"Vote For Romney - He Stinks Less Than Obama"

96 posted on 06/16/2012 3:43:02 AM PDT by Isabel C.
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To: GlockThe Vote

I am fully expecting major shenanigans out of the Obama labor dept the rest of the way, in all their reporting


97 posted on 06/16/2012 5:02:49 AM PDT by Friendofgeorge (SARAH PALIN 2012 OR BUST)
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To: EQAndyBuzz

The VP pick needs to be someone that excites the South enough to rally, while holding their nose at the same time


98 posted on 06/16/2012 5:06:02 AM PDT by Friendofgeorge (SARAH PALIN 2012 OR BUST)
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To: 92nina
You are a sad individual.

Yup, Mitt Romney moves me to tears. Saddened, I weep for the country. I'll probably vote for Mitt in order to get Obama out, but will need a box of Kleenex for my eyes and a vise on my nose.

99 posted on 06/16/2012 6:41:51 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (Let me ABOs run loose Lou!)
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To: nhwingut
I'm a little late with my Rasmussen analysis of polls, but here is the combined results of the changes over the last two weeks of polling.

Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

Below are the states that are still in the polling margin of error. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll, and the second number is the separation from Obama's result.

In Arizona, the race tightens as Obama loses 8.7% to Romney's gain of 0.3%, making this race now a tie. Similarly in Iowa, Obama falls 7.9% while Romney gains 2.6%, putting this race back on the board.The pattern repeats in Michigan, as Obama loses 7.3% as Romney gains 1.1%, putting Michigan back within the margin of error. In Missouri, Obama falls by 3% while Romnay gains 1%. Virginia is the only state where Obama held some ground, gaining 3% to Romney's gain of 2%, making this state a tie. But the pattern repeats again in Wisconsin, where Obama loses 5% as Romney gains 2%, giving Romney the lead here as well.

Watch List:

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
Electoral
College
P10
GOP
Electoral
College
EV
GOP
Electoral
College
P90
Probability
of 270
2008 Election 180 180 180 0.00%
11-May-12 193 220.73 248 0.16%
18-May-12 197 225.09 248 0.23%
25-May-12 206 232.72 256 1.21%
02-Jun-12 216 242.46 266 4.43%
09-Jun-12 221 247.73 275 14.02%
16-Jun-12 230 257.37 282 28.95%

And in the Senate... things aren't looking as good. The Republican lead is slipping, and chances of getting 51 seats has fallen below 50%.

This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

In Missouri where their primary has not happened yet, Democrat McCaskill is losing by 12% to her top Republican contender, so this race drops off of the watch list. In Ohio, both candidates gained, Democrat Brown getting 3% to Republican Mandel's 1%. In Virginia, Republican Allen continues to fall against Democrat Kaine, losing another 2% to Kaine's gain of 1%, putting Kaine in the lead.

Watch List:

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
Senate
Seats
P10
GOP
Senate
Seats
EV
GOP
Senate
Seats
P90
Prob ability
of 51
GOP
Gain
2010 Election 47 47 47 0.00% 0
11-May-12 50 51.24 52 77.01% 4
18-May-12 50 51.24 52 77.01% 4
25-May-12 49 50.75 52 58.53% 3
02-Jun-12 49 50.63 52 54.34% 3
02-Jun-12 49 50.63 52 54.34% 3
09-Jun-12 49 50.37 52 44.50% 3

-PJ

100 posted on 06/17/2012 5:30:41 AM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you can vote for President, then your children can run for President.)
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