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Five Reasons Why Romney is the Favorite
Commentary ^ | 06/15/2012 | Peter Wehner

Posted on 06/16/2012 4:23:11 AM PDT by safetysign

Why is Barack Obama’s road to re-election so steep and uncertain at this stage?

There are five important reasons.

1. An indefensible record. Every election which features an incumbent is, at least in good measure, a referendum on the record of the incumbent. The problem facing Obama is that he can’t offer a convincing case that his policies have succeeded. Recall that at the outset of his presidency, Obama told NBC’s Matt Lauer, “I will be held accountable. I’ve got four years… If I don’t have this done in three years, then there’s going to be a one-term proposition.” Yet last October, Obama had to concede to ABC’s George Stephanopoulos that “I don’t think [people are] better off than they were four years ago.”

In addition, the main achievements of the Obama presidency – including the Affordable Care Act and the stimulus package – are deeply unpopular. By virtually any measure, then, the president has presided over a failed first term. He cannot reinvent, and therefore he cannot successfully defend, his record.

2. A weakening economy. The Obama campaign rested its hopes on the American economy getting stronger rather than weaker. This would have allowed the president to argue that while things haven’t improved as quickly as Americans had hoped, the trajectory was encouraging, that progress was being made, that the building blocks to prosperity were in place. From there, Obama would say he needed a second term to complete what he (belatedly) started in his first. But the data this year – including dismal economic growth, job creation, and factory orders – have left the Obama narrative in ruins. In the fourth year of his presidency, Obama is presiding over a weak economy that is becoming weaker still. The issue the public cares most about (the economy) is the issue the president is most vulnerable on.

3. Intellectual exhaustion. The Obama campaign is out of ideas. On the economy, Obama has used virtually everything in his progressive toolkit. Nothing has worked. And so the president, unable to defend his record in the first term, is left with no compelling vision to offer in a second term. Witness his speech in Ohio yesterday. It was billed as a “major” address on the economy. But it was widely panned even on the left for being empty and uninteresting. The president himself cannot articulate why his agenda in a second term would be more effective than what he’s done in his first term. He’s running on empty.

4. A formidable opponent. The Obama campaign’s attempt to disqualify Mitt Romney on grounds that he’s too extreme to be president has fizzled. Whatever complaints one may have about Romney, being an extremist is not a plausible one. As Bill Clinton admitted, Romney has been a governor, had a “sterling business career,” and “crosses the qualification threshold.” Since securing the GOP nomination, Romney has made few unforced errors. He’s begun to repair the damage he had sustained. He’s shown impressive discipline and focus as a candidate. He’s outraising the president. And Governor Romney’s campaign is, at least as of now, clearly superior to the president’s.

5. The late break. In most presidential elections, undecided voters break in large numbers for the challenger. If someone is undecided about an incumbent they know well, they will usually cast their ballot for the challenger. That’s particularly true when the country is suffering from economic difficulties and the political fundamentals are bad for the person occupying the Oval Office, which is certainly the case today.

Craig Shirley’s book Rendezvous With Destiny reminds us that 10 days before the 1980 election, Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by one point in a CBS News/New York Times poll; and the morning of the presidential debate (October 29), a Gallup Poll reported that Carter had a three-point lead over Reagan. Yet Reagan outdueled Carter in the debate and ended up winning 44 states and defeating Carter by almost 10 points.

I have long believed, and continue to believe, that the durable dynamic in this race will be that a majority of the public, and a large majority of independent voters, (a) consider Barack Obama’s tenure to be a failure and (b) are inclined to vote against him. They are bone weary of his presidency, and they want it over.

The challenge for Mitt Romney is to sufficiently reassure these voters that he’s up to the task of being president and that he would be an improvement over Obama. There have been higher bars to clear in the history of American politics, and at this stage in the race – with less than 150 days to go – the former Massachusetts governor is on course to do just that. Which is why he should be considered the favorite in the race.


TOPICS: Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: benedictromney; election; fumr; mitt4romney; obama; obama2012; obamacare4romney; obamawhite; romney; romney2012; romney4dnc; romney4nytimes; romney4obama; romney4romney; verminromney
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1 posted on 06/16/2012 4:23:19 AM PDT by safetysign
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To: safetysign

Romney is a liberal. I won’t vote for him.


2 posted on 06/16/2012 4:28:40 AM PDT by Halfmanhalfamazing ( Media doesn't report, It advertises. So that last advertisement you just read, what was it worth?)
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To: safetysign
The countdown begins before the angry, irrational, mitten haters begin to tell us how stupid and duped we are for saying we will reluctantly vote Romney over the communist, mooselimb, halfrican, prick.

Five...four...three......

3 posted on 06/16/2012 4:29:40 AM PDT by USS Alaska (Nuke the terrorist savages, start today.)
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To: Halfmanhalfamazing

Broken record. Obama is thrilled.


4 posted on 06/16/2012 4:38:49 AM PDT by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: USS Alaska

Yep, you can count on it.


5 posted on 06/16/2012 4:42:10 AM PDT by windsorknot
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To: Halfmanhalfamazing

I used to think the same...Romney’s too liberal...but at this point I’d vote for Daffy Duck over the current POTUS.

Yesterday our commender in chief once again trashed the Constitution with his announcement about illegal aliens.

This guy is dangerous...Romney is only annoying.


6 posted on 06/16/2012 4:45:37 AM PDT by kjo (+)
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To: Halfmanhalfamazing

He’s a bottom feeder.


7 posted on 06/16/2012 4:45:53 AM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: USS Alaska

What’s irrational about looking at the man’s record and throwing your hands up in the air?

Do you like Massachusetts Mitt’s activist judge picks?
Do you like his global warming?
Do you like his gun grabbing?
Do you like his increases in taxes *COUGH* I mean fees?
How about his sanctuary cities?
The entirety of his record as governor is liberal.

Just because I can’t stand Obama’s record, doesn’t mean I’m going to be blind to Romney’s. And Romneys is indeed _that bad_, that he can’t be supported.

Romney’s presidency is the easiest/biggest clusterf____ to see coming. Nothing about his candidacy is real. He is Obama white.


8 posted on 06/16/2012 4:46:08 AM PDT by Halfmanhalfamazing ( Media doesn't report, It advertises. So that last advertisement you just read, what was it worth?)
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To: safetysign

Mr. RomneyCARE has ALREADY supported Obama on
RomneyCARE/ObamaCARE, TARP, and now Amnesty.

Weak Mr. RomneyCARE is NOTHING but a democrat
liberal.


9 posted on 06/16/2012 4:49:14 AM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: GlockThe Vote

Obama probably is thrilled. Romney isn’t going to keep any of his promises, what part of the Rockefeller wing of the republican party have you missed over the last 4-9 decades?

Everybody that Romney keeps surrounding himself with puts the lie to all of his promises. You know full well that if you were the one running for president against Obamacare, you wouldn’t hire not one person who favored Obamacare.

Romney has hired every single one of them.


10 posted on 06/16/2012 4:50:00 AM PDT by Halfmanhalfamazing ( Media doesn't report, It advertises. So that last advertisement you just read, what was it worth?)
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To: Halfmanhalfamazing

Obama is a marxist. I won’t vote for him.

In fact, I’m even going to vote for the other guy in order to help keep the marxist out. The other guy is no conservative - but he’s no marxist either - and he likes America... the marxist?... not so much.

I don’t want to have to explain how my choice to fail to support the other guy led to the further destruction of America by aiding the marxist’s reelection. Not many FReepers do.... unless they just sign up before elections to disrupt.


11 posted on 06/16/2012 4:50:37 AM PDT by Principled (It's not enthusiasm for Romney, it's grim determination to remove Hussein)
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To: kjo

————————This guy is dangerous...Romney is only annoying.-——————

This is naive.

Both men are progressives. That makes them both dangerous.


12 posted on 06/16/2012 4:55:32 AM PDT by Halfmanhalfamazing ( Media doesn't report, It advertises. So that last advertisement you just read, what was it worth?)
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To: USS Alaska
For your viewing pleasure. :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWDJEc92d38&feature=player_embedded

Just Sayin'...

13 posted on 06/16/2012 4:55:32 AM PDT by Errant
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To: Principled

-——————In fact, I’m even going to vote for the other guy in order to help keep the marxist out.-———————

Do you believe that “progressive” is code word for communist like Allen West does?

Mitt Romney in 2002 “My views are progressive”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMcjJEXt9To

If you answer the question with a yes, then you are prepared to vote for one communist over another.


14 posted on 06/16/2012 4:58:32 AM PDT by Halfmanhalfamazing ( Media doesn't report, It advertises. So that last advertisement you just read, what was it worth?)
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To: safetysign
Mr. RomneyCARE is EXACTLY like Obama.

.


15 posted on 06/16/2012 4:58:32 AM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: safetysign

The late break. In most presidential elections, undecided voters break in large numbers for the challenger. If someone is undecided about an incumbent they know well, they will usually cast their ballot for the challenger

In Ohio independents out number the two parties. So Zero is dead.


16 posted on 06/16/2012 5:00:03 AM PDT by Recon Dad (Gas & Petroleum Junkie)
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To: Principled
Obama is a marxist. I won’t vote for him. In fact, I’m even going to vote for the other guy in order to help keep the marxist out. The other guy is no conservative - but he’s no marxist either - and he likes America... the marxist?... not so much. I don’t want to have to explain how my choice to fail to support the other guy led to the further destruction of America by aiding the marxist’s reelection. Not many FReepers do.... unless they just sign up before elections to disrupt.

I'm with you - ANYTHING to get rid of Obama. On his worst day, Romney is better than Obama on his "best" day.

17 posted on 06/16/2012 5:02:13 AM PDT by trebb ("If a man will not work, he should not eat" From 2 Thes 3)
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To: kjo

18 posted on 06/16/2012 5:05:49 AM PDT by Recon Dad (Gas & Petroleum Junkie)
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To: trebb; Principled

Here’s what I want to explain to my kids:

I learned my lesson.

I won’t pick and choose between progressives and say that one progressive is better than another progressive.

The way post 11 is structured, it sounds oh-so-reasonable.

But if you just change the words “the other guy” to be “progressive” (which Romney is, he admits it and his record bears the words out to be the full honest truth) that’s when the reasonability of post 11 falls apart.

If anybody believes as Allen West does, that “progressive” is code word for “communist”, then they have no business voting for Romney.


19 posted on 06/16/2012 5:08:17 AM PDT by Halfmanhalfamazing ( Media doesn't report, It advertises. So that last advertisement you just read, what was it worth?)
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To: Recon Dad

20 posted on 06/16/2012 5:09:45 AM PDT by Halfmanhalfamazing ( Media doesn't report, It advertises. So that last advertisement you just read, what was it worth?)
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To: Halfmanhalfamazing

What I said in 08 has come to pass.

RINOs are lying, manipulative bottom feeding scum who will throw a race to the democrat only so they can run someone worse next time (in this case Romney)


21 posted on 06/16/2012 5:18:38 AM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: safetysign

Wehner makes a leap of faith in assuming the American electorate mentally grasps the danger this country faces if Obama is reelected. Most are blissfully unaware that $16 trillion debt, annual deficits of $1 trillion+, a weakened, homosexualized military, unprotected borders and economy-strangling tax and regulation policies are going to impact them in ways they cannot begin to imagine.


22 posted on 06/16/2012 5:19:55 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: Halfmanhalfamazing
Romney is a liberal. I won’t vote for him.

I don't care who you vote for.

23 posted on 06/16/2012 5:20:57 AM PDT by steelwheels
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To: Halfmanhalfamazing

You wont vote for Romney. Essentially then you are providing Obama a margin of one more vote. Thanks for nothing!


24 posted on 06/16/2012 5:23:22 AM PDT by Old Retired Army Guy
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To: Halfmanhalfamazing
You do what you think is best. I have a son in the service and I owe it to him and others.
25 posted on 06/16/2012 5:26:02 AM PDT by Recon Dad (Gas & Petroleum Junkie)
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To: cripplecreek

You were right.


26 posted on 06/16/2012 5:28:35 AM PDT by Halfmanhalfamazing ( Media doesn't report, It advertises. So that last advertisement you just read, what was it worth?)
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To: Old Retired Army Guy

?

You’re begging me to vote for progressivism, for bigger government?


27 posted on 06/16/2012 5:30:00 AM PDT by Halfmanhalfamazing ( Media doesn't report, It advertises. So that last advertisement you just read, what was it worth?)
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To: Halfmanhalfamazing

Romney is awful.
But he’s less awful than the Obama.
Those two are the only viable candidates.
Not voting for either aids the one you like less.
The Obama thanks you for your support, however tepid.


28 posted on 06/16/2012 5:31:47 AM PDT by ctdonath2 ($1 meals: http://abuckaplate.blogspot.com)
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To: safetysign

Five reasons Romney is the favorite:

1. Americans instinctively know that in his 2nd term the gloves will come off and Obama will truly become Obamugabe

2. Americans instinctively know that in his 2nd term, given the opportunity, Obamugabe will appoint Eric Holder to the Supreme Court

3. Americans instinctively know that in his 2nd term Obamugabe will accelerate his tear-down of the American defense establishment and effectively remove America from the world stage (a promise he’s already basically made to the Russians)

4. Americans instinctively know that he will sign a deal with the Arabs to sell Israel down the river

5. Americans instinctively know that in his 2nd term, Obamugabe will take the gloves off on Global Warming and basically shut down what’s left of the US economy in order to make the very worst of the EnviroNazis happy


29 posted on 06/16/2012 5:36:15 AM PDT by samtheman (If we want Obamugabe out, we must vote him out.)
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To: Recon Dad

“Son, I voted for progressives” “I did this for you”

I can’t understand that.


30 posted on 06/16/2012 5:38:07 AM PDT by Halfmanhalfamazing ( Media doesn't report, It advertises. So that last advertisement you just read, what was it worth?)
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To: All
I would remind everyone that this is a conservative website.

If you support a liberal you cannot honestly call yourself a conservative.

You don't have the strength of your own convictions.

31 posted on 06/16/2012 5:40:09 AM PDT by Manic_Episode (Tom Hoefling for President - 2012)
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To: Halfmanhalfamazing

Of course Romney is a liberal, but anybody that doesn’t accept that there are levels of liberalism and only sees black and white are out of touch with reality. Obama out of control and many orders of magnitude worse than Romney. And one glaring reality is that a no vote or a vote for a third party is a vote for Obama.

This country cannot survive another 4 years with this mad man.

We need to take back the Senate and increase our lead in the House including replacing RINOs where we can. And then we need someone in the White House that is not going to veto all our efforts.


32 posted on 06/16/2012 5:41:25 AM PDT by Okieshooter
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To: samtheman

Thank you Sam, you are The Man.


33 posted on 06/16/2012 5:41:25 AM PDT by Ditter
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To: Halfmanhalfamazing
I was for Cain, I was for Newt and I would have voted for Perry and everyone of them are now behind Romney because they know what's at stake.

We Will have to agree to disagree.

34 posted on 06/16/2012 5:47:24 AM PDT by Recon Dad (Gas & Petroleum Junkie)
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To: Halfmanhalfamazing

If Oabama wins it will be your fault. I know! Its not fair, but thats the way it is.


35 posted on 06/16/2012 5:47:57 AM PDT by Casie
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To: Recon Dad

LOL! I like it!


36 posted on 06/16/2012 5:54:57 AM PDT by Drew68 (I WILL vote to defeat Barack Hussein Obama!)
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To: Halfmanhalfamazing

The only reason that romney hasn’t announced a veep candidate is because hussein hasn’t accepted the job yet.


37 posted on 06/16/2012 5:55:27 AM PDT by Caipirabob (I say we take off and Newt the site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure...)
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To: samtheman

Thank you samtheman. You truly are the man. Thank you for clarifying this.


38 posted on 06/16/2012 6:07:10 AM PDT by quilterdebbie
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To: quilterdebbie; Ditter

You’re welcome, but really, you shouldn’t thank me, you should thank Americans everywhere, you should thank yourselves, for instinctively knowing that this POS has to go.


39 posted on 06/16/2012 6:14:24 AM PDT by samtheman (If we want Obamugabe out, we must vote him out.)
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To: samtheman

Outstanding post, Sam!


40 posted on 06/16/2012 6:38:48 AM PDT by Ax (You've got to hand it to Venus de Milo.)
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To: Halfmanhalfamazing
This is naive... Both men are progressives. That makes them both dangerous.

now who is being naive???? I wish I could play the Dhimmicrat card and vote early and VOTE OFTEN! and for Romney(and yes I dislike this slime as much as anyone)

nothing, and I mean NOTHING is worse than zer0bama....

41 posted on 06/16/2012 6:57:15 AM PDT by Vaquero (Don't pick a fight with an old guy. If he is too old to fight, he'll just kill you.)
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To: Halfmanhalfamazing
another Obama voter...
42 posted on 06/16/2012 6:57:43 AM PDT by southphilly (Every State should be a RIGHT to WORK State!)
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To: Halfmanhalfamazing

Romney is a liberal. I won’t vote for him.
______________________________________________________________

LOL.... like anybody gives a crap what you do.


43 posted on 06/16/2012 7:05:14 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: Manic_Episode
I can call myself whatever I wish...I am a conservative, and have been for 50 years....I will vote for Romney for the sake of our Country and my children and grands...4 more years of Obama will be a disaster,,
I have a brain, and I use IT....so pump your chest!
44 posted on 06/16/2012 7:07:20 AM PDT by southphilly (Every State should be a RIGHT to WORK State!)
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To: cripplecreek

He’s a bottom feeder
______________________________________________________________

Is that the “fish” term or the “Gay” term?


45 posted on 06/16/2012 7:07:50 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: samtheman

Americans instinctively know that in his 2nd term, given the opportunity, Obamugabe will appoint Eric Holder to the Supreme Court
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

God help us. That one statement almost just scared and sickened me into projectile vomiting.


46 posted on 06/16/2012 7:10:23 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: pistolpackinpapa

Americans instinctively know that in his 2nd term, given the opportunity, Obamugabe will appoint Eric Holder to the Supreme Court
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

God help us. That one statement almost just scared and sickened me into projectile vomiting.

the real scary part is that the Repukes in the Senate will NOT BLOCK IT...for fear of being called racist.

47 posted on 06/16/2012 7:20:04 AM PDT by Vaquero (Don't pick a fight with an old guy. If he is too old to fight, he'll just kill you.)
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To: safetysign

Obama has made it increasingly clear that he will govern by executive orders and any other end-runs around Congress and the Courts he can think of.

That is the significant difference here. Romney may push things that are not conservative, but there is no indication that he will use made up powers to push his agenda. He will play by the rules because he is competent enough, and respectful enough of America, to do so. Obama doesn’t actually know how and doesn’t think it’s that important.

Romney may have policies that are undesireable, but Obama is a Chavez wanna-be.

They’re not the same.


48 posted on 06/16/2012 8:05:36 AM PDT by married21 (As for me and my house, we will serve the Lord.)
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To: Okieshooter

Exactly Okie... the rational idea is thus... have a President who will work and maybe bend to his Congress and Senate. Romney is the guy. Anyone here that says hey let Obama win and we are subject to 4 more years of hard core kommie krap is not being rational.


49 posted on 06/16/2012 9:02:00 AM PDT by Republic Rocker
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To: Halfmanhalfamazing

If Bill Clinton were running against Obama, I would vote for him. I don’t expect any substantive policy changes either way, nor do I expect a President to advance conservatism (that is the job of Congress) but simply electing a President who does not actively hate and constantly try to destroy white American business owners is essential.


50 posted on 06/16/2012 9:15:54 AM PDT by Mr. Jeeves (CTRL-GALT-DELETE)
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