You’re leaving off VA? I’m not quite as confident about VA as you are, I guess.
If I had to pick 3 states that will decide the election, I would say OH, VA and FL. (I think NC is pretty much in his column already.) If Romney wins those three states, he will get to 270 by picking off just one more state. I think that he’ll win NH and seal the deal, but if not there are a half dozen other states that he has about even odds of winning (IA, NV, CO, WI, MI and PA). Romney also has a shot at MN, NM, OR, NJ and ME, but if he wins any of those ít will surely be gravy (if he wins MN he would also carry IA and WI; if he wins NM he’ll carry CO and NV; if he wins NJ he’ll definitely carry PA, if he wins ME he’ll carry NH handily, and if he wins OR, he’ll get to 370 EVs).
My mistake, I forgot Virginia. Choosing Bob McDonnell would surely help Romney there.