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POLL: Supreme Court Insiders Think Obamacare Is Finished
Business Insider ^ | 06/20/2012 | Brett LoGiurato

Posted on 06/20/2012 12:15:11 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

Most former Supreme Court attorneys and clerks believe that the individual mandate to buy health insurance — the signature provision of President Barack Obama's Affordable Care Act — will soon be struck down as unconstitutional by the high court.

That's according to a joint poll by the American Action Forum, Center Forward and Purple Strategies. An astounding 57 percent of clerks and attorneys polled now think that the mandate will be ruled unconstitutional. That's up from just 35 percent in March, before the court held oral arguments on the case. 

Obamacare poll

Purple Strategies

Here's what one respondent told Purple Strategies:

“I feel like a dope, because I was one of those who predicted that the Court would uphold the statute by a lopsided majority…it now appears pretty likely that this prediction was way off.”

Why the change? The oral arguments in late March had a lot to do with it. In this poll, 70 percent of respondents thought the justices were more skeptical than they expected. Thirty percent said it was about what they expected, and no one thought it was less skeptical than expected.

The insiders' sudden skepticism falls in line with those of some lawyers and constitutional scholars began to have after the oral arguments. Ilya Shapiro, a senior fellow in constitutional studies at the libertarian Cato Institute, upped his unconstitutional prediction from 55 percent likely before the hearings to 65 percent likely after the hearings.

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: obamacare; scotus; supremecourt
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1 posted on 06/20/2012 12:15:24 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

once again, we all knew well in advance, while the ‘experts’ are surprised. jeez


2 posted on 06/20/2012 12:17:13 PM PDT by ilgipper ( November cannot come soon enough)
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To: SeekAndFind

Remember CFR

Don’t get your hopes up because anything can happen


3 posted on 06/20/2012 12:18:24 PM PDT by uncbob
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To: SeekAndFind

More tea leaf reading . Nobody knows what the Court will decide until the opinion is released. My guess is they will strike down the mandate but leave the rest intact.


4 posted on 06/20/2012 12:18:30 PM PDT by saganite (What happens to taglines? Is there a termination date?)
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To: SeekAndFind

Get ready for:

“John Roberts has made his decision; now let him enforce it!” — Barack “Jackson” Obama


5 posted on 06/20/2012 12:18:52 PM PDT by ClearCase_guy
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To: SeekAndFind

As Yogi Berra once said: “It’s over when it’s over”.


6 posted on 06/20/2012 12:20:00 PM PDT by duckman (Go Newt...)
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To: saganite
My guess is they will strike down the mandate but leave the rest intact.

How? Severability was not in the bill. Its my understanding that if part is ruled un-Constitutional, the whole thing is struck down.

7 posted on 06/20/2012 12:21:18 PM PDT by Michael Barnes (Obamaa+ Downgrade)
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To: ClearCase_guy

I am afraid that at some point Obie will be forced to understand that all those military “folks” took an oath to the Constitution, not to him...


8 posted on 06/20/2012 12:23:07 PM PDT by gov_bean_ counter ( A good measure, pressed down, shaken together and running over...)
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To: Michael Barnes

The Court can find a way if they want to.


9 posted on 06/20/2012 12:24:15 PM PDT by saganite (What happens to taglines? Is there a termination date?)
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To: duckman
As Yogi Berra once said: “It’s over when it’s over”.

That's not how I remember it. He said: "It's not over when it's over!"

10 posted on 06/20/2012 12:24:52 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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To: saganite

In theory, it’s an all or nothing proposition. To strike the mandate but uphold the rest is judicial activism because SCOTUS would be, in essence establishing a severability clause that is not there.


11 posted on 06/20/2012 12:25:59 PM PDT by GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
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To: Revolting cat!

“That’s not how I remember it. He said: “It’s not over when it’s over!”
Are you sure? It sounds logical the way you put it!


12 posted on 06/20/2012 12:27:15 PM PDT by duckman (Go Newt...)
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To: duckman

“It’s not over UNTIL it’s over.”


13 posted on 06/20/2012 12:29:34 PM PDT by GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
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To: Revolting cat!

The actual Yogi Berra quote was “It ain’t over till it’s over. “


14 posted on 06/20/2012 12:29:57 PM PDT by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: Revolting cat!

It’s not over until it’s over.


15 posted on 06/20/2012 12:30:41 PM PDT by Lando Lincoln (But that's just me.)
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To: Revolting cat!

I always thought it was, “It’s not over UNTIL it’s over.”


16 posted on 06/20/2012 12:31:07 PM PDT by fidelis (Zonie and USAF Cold Warrior)
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To: duckman

I’m not sure of anything. I’m only sure that Bob Dylan said “It’s all over now, baby blue...”, and Roy Orbison “It’s OVER!”


17 posted on 06/20/2012 12:31:19 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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To: GeorgeWashingtonsGhost

Or, it’s the committee speaking, and a battle between 4 brains and 3 schmucks and one non-recusing pig over one fence sitter’s vote, resulting in an unacceptable “compromise” being the result to get 5-4.


18 posted on 06/20/2012 12:32:20 PM PDT by C210N ("ask not what the candidate can do for you, ask what you can do for the candidate" (Breitbart, 2012))
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To: Lando Lincoln; a fool in paradise

No, no, that was what the Fat Lady sang!


19 posted on 06/20/2012 12:33:08 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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To: Michael Barnes

—Severability was not in the bill. —

Yep. And the comical part is that it used to be but was removed. That seems pretty deliberate to me. ‘Course, I’m not in the SCOTUS.


20 posted on 06/20/2012 12:33:08 PM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: Revolting cat!; GonzoGOP

Yogi Berra Sayings and Quotations www.retrogalaxy.com/sports/yogi-berra.aspCached

“It ain’t over ‘til it’s over”. This quote is undoubtedly the most well known Yogi-ism. It is also one of the more coherent ones. He first said this about the 1973 ...


21 posted on 06/20/2012 12:34:37 PM PDT by Pegita ('Tis so sweet to trust in Jesus, just to take Him at His word ...)
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To: Revolting cat!
No, no, that was what the Fat Lady sang!


22 posted on 06/20/2012 12:35:54 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: SeekAndFind

InTrade has Obama at 53% likely to be re-elected but they have SCOTUS striking down the mandate for ObamaCare at 72%. For what it’s worth.

I hope they’re right about SCOTUS. I want the whole thing dumped on its communist butt.


23 posted on 06/20/2012 12:36:40 PM PDT by OrangeHoof (Our economy won't heal until one particular black man is unemployed.)
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To: saganite

That would be my guess too, but I hope we’re both wrong.

I’d love to see them shock us and strike the whole thing down.


24 posted on 06/20/2012 12:37:12 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Remove all Democrats from the Republican party, and we won't have much Left, just a lot of Right.)
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To: GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
Here's the actual signed baseball by YOGI BERRA


25 posted on 06/20/2012 12:38:37 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: SeekAndFind

I will be very happy if the Supreme Court overturns ObamaCare. But it does come with a political downside. Obama will then be able to fire up his base by campaigning on the premise that the “evil” Republican-appointed Supreme Court justices “took away” their healthcare, and how important it will be to re-elect him so that he can have the chance to pick SC justices that are more sympathetic to the liberal cause.


26 posted on 06/20/2012 12:39:40 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: OrangeHoof

If that guy is re-elected by 53%, it will be one of the most colossal failures by an opposing party in the nation’s history.

What more could a guy do, to prove himself unworthy? If the Republicans can’t capitalize on this guy’s negatives, just damn.


27 posted on 06/20/2012 12:40:22 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Remove all Democrats from the Republican party, and we won't have much Left, just a lot of Right.)
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To: SeekAndFind

"It's not over until I sing 'IT'S OVER!'"

28 posted on 06/20/2012 12:40:51 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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To: Michael Barnes
"Severability was not in the bill." Mebbe, ah say, mebbe some these heah Dhimmicrat "lawmakers" should have read it--ah say read it--before voting for it? Instead of sayin' we gots to vote for it to knows what's in it. Lissen to me Dingus, Miss Peelousy when ah'm talkin' to you, sakes alive, you all are lak a sack a wet mice, ah say, ah say, Oh my goodness, ah my rupture mahsef ......
29 posted on 06/20/2012 12:41:20 PM PDT by tumblindice (Sic Semper Tyrannis)
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To: SeekAndFind

I’ll believe it when I see it. Don’t underestimate Chicago tactics.


30 posted on 06/20/2012 12:42:33 PM PDT by ari-freedom
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To: SeekAndFind
What do the Outsiders think?


31 posted on 06/20/2012 12:43:20 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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To: SamAdams76

They overturn the mandate (which is very unpopular) and Romney doesn’t have to deal with that issue as he goes after the rest of Obamacare.


32 posted on 06/20/2012 12:45:37 PM PDT by ari-freedom
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To: DoughtyOne
If that guy is re-elected by 53%, it will be one of the most colossal failures by an opposing party in the nation’s history.

Oh, I agree. A lot of InTrade bettors are outside the US so I suspect the news they get from the US is largely through CNN, the New York Times and the British press. If that was your sources, you'd probably think Obama was still highly popular.

33 posted on 06/20/2012 12:45:37 PM PDT by OrangeHoof (Our economy won't heal until one particular black man is unemployed.)
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To: duckman

or when the Fat Lady sings.

Who’s the Fat Lady and has she already sung (to Obama)

Kagan or Sotomayor. They both are a little plus sizey.


34 posted on 06/20/2012 12:47:31 PM PDT by altura
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To: saganite
My guess is they will strike down the mandate but leave the rest intact.

I think that's the least likely scenario, honestly. I doubt the court has any desire to go line-by-line through that monstrosity and say, "this stays, this goes".

35 posted on 06/20/2012 12:48:55 PM PDT by kevkrom (Those in a rush to trample the Constitution seem to forget that it is the source of their authority.)
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To: DoughtyOne

“If that guy is re-elected by 53%, it will be one of the most colossal failures by an opposing party in the nation’s history.”

53% means a 53% chance he will win by any amount, even by one vote, not that he will get 53% of the vote.


36 posted on 06/20/2012 12:48:55 PM PDT by ari-freedom
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To: ari-freedom

I was pretty sure I’d get a response on that point. Tell you what, if you want to change that 53% in my response to 50% + 1 vote, it will still be one of the most colossal failures by an opposing party in the nation’s history.

Thanks for the response. No problem...


37 posted on 06/20/2012 12:54:00 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Remove all Democrats from the Republican party, and we won't have much Left, just a lot of Right.)
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To: ClearCase_guy

NULLIFICATION TIME if he tries that!!!


38 posted on 06/20/2012 12:54:00 PM PDT by ZULU (See: http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=D9vQt6IXXaM&hd)
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To: SeekAndFind

I said it before I’ll say it again: They’ll uphold the law.


39 posted on 06/20/2012 12:55:52 PM PDT by TalBlack ( Evil doesn't have a day job.)
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To: saganite

No...they will strike down the whole thing. It is not their job to pick and choose. That belongs to Congress.


40 posted on 06/20/2012 12:56:11 PM PDT by Sacajaweau
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To: OrangeHoof
The CNN seen in Europe is not the same as the version seen in the US. From what I've seen of it, it's even more left-wing than the US version.

And they don't give baseball scores.

41 posted on 06/20/2012 1:01:22 PM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: SeekAndFind
POLL: Supreme Court Insiders Think Obamacare Is Finished

This id fine, but if the SCOTUS would grow a pair and DEMAND a VALID BC:

POLL: Supreme Court Insiders Think Obama Is Finished

42 posted on 06/20/2012 1:01:47 PM PDT by The Sons of Liberty (Sworn to Defend The Constitution Against ALL Enemies, Foreign and Domestic. So Help Me GOD!)
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To: SeekAndFind

That settle’s it!


43 posted on 06/20/2012 1:02:24 PM PDT by GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
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To: ClearCase_guy

Here’s how it gets enforced: I sue my employer if he tries to implement any part of the act. I sue anyone who goes along with any provision of the act, when that acts to my detriment. You think lawyers won’t jump all over this hot legal cottage industry? They may vote democrat but ideology is trumped by their wallets.

The Courts have to award damages because the employer, or any private or government entity, cannot implement something not authorized by law. 0bamacare dies the death of 1000 cuts in the American courtroom.


44 posted on 06/20/2012 1:04:05 PM PDT by henkster (Why should I care? Why should I care?)
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To: GeorgeWashingtonsGhost

I have heard some commentator with a legal background (Andrew Napolitano, Hugh Hewitt, don’t recall exactly who) say that SCOTUS has done that before, created severability where none in the law existed.


45 posted on 06/20/2012 1:04:51 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: fidelis

What’s the over-under on that?


46 posted on 06/20/2012 1:08:49 PM PDT by folkquest (Nothing is fool-proof because fools are so ingenious!)
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To: SeekAndFind

I can hope and will pray.


47 posted on 06/20/2012 1:24:13 PM PDT by CSM (Keeper of the Dave Ramsey Ping list. FReepmail me if you want your beeber stuned.)
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To: GonzoGOP
The actual Yogi Berra quote was “It ain’t over till it’s over. “

Also, when you come to a fork in the road, take it.

Nobody goes to that restaurant anymore, it's too crowded.

48 posted on 06/20/2012 1:24:17 PM PDT by USS Alaska (Nuke the terrorist savages, start today.)
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To: tumblindice

Ah say son, you got that character down cold!!!! One of my favorite Mel Blanc voices. How did he do it???


49 posted on 06/20/2012 1:27:10 PM PDT by refermech
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To: ClearCase_guy

If he contemplates going there, let us remind him that last year, on 3 days’ notice, one million “tea party” types showed up in DC.


50 posted on 06/20/2012 1:34:51 PM PDT by ctdonath2 ($1 meals: http://abuckaplate.blogspot.com)
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