Skip to comments.POLL: Supreme Court Insiders Think Obamacare Is Finished
Posted on 06/20/2012 12:15:11 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Most former Supreme Court attorneys and clerks believe that the individual mandate to buy health insurance — the signature provision of President Barack Obama's Affordable Care Act — will soon be struck down as unconstitutional by the high court.
That's according to a joint poll by the American Action Forum, Center Forward and Purple Strategies. An astounding 57 percent of clerks and attorneys polled now think that the mandate will be ruled unconstitutional. That's up from just 35 percent in March, before the court held oral arguments on the case.
Here's what one respondent told Purple Strategies:
“I feel like a dope, because I was one of those who predicted that the Court would uphold the statute by a lopsided majority…it now appears pretty likely that this prediction was way off.”
Why the change? The oral arguments in late March had a lot to do with it. In this poll, 70 percent of respondents thought the justices were more skeptical than they expected. Thirty percent said it was about what they expected, and no one thought it was less skeptical than expected.
The insiders' sudden skepticism falls in line with those of some lawyers and constitutional scholars began to have after the oral arguments. Ilya Shapiro, a senior fellow in constitutional studies at the libertarian Cato Institute, upped his unconstitutional prediction from 55 percent likely before the hearings to 65 percent likely after the hearings.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
once again, we all knew well in advance, while the ‘experts’ are surprised. jeez
Don’t get your hopes up because anything can happen
More tea leaf reading . Nobody knows what the Court will decide until the opinion is released. My guess is they will strike down the mandate but leave the rest intact.
Get ready for:
“John Roberts has made his decision; now let him enforce it!” — Barack “Jackson” Obama
As Yogi Berra once said: “It’s over when it’s over”.
How? Severability was not in the bill. Its my understanding that if part is ruled un-Constitutional, the whole thing is struck down.
I am afraid that at some point Obie will be forced to understand that all those military “folks” took an oath to the Constitution, not to him...
The Court can find a way if they want to.
That's not how I remember it. He said: "It's not over when it's over!"
In theory, it’s an all or nothing proposition. To strike the mandate but uphold the rest is judicial activism because SCOTUS would be, in essence establishing a severability clause that is not there.
“That’s not how I remember it. He said: “It’s not over when it’s over!”
Are you sure? It sounds logical the way you put it!
“It’s not over UNTIL it’s over.”
The actual Yogi Berra quote was “It ain’t over till it’s over. “
It’s not over until it’s over.
I always thought it was, “It’s not over UNTIL it’s over.”
I’m not sure of anything. I’m only sure that Bob Dylan said “It’s all over now, baby blue...”, and Roy Orbison “It’s OVER!”
Or, it’s the committee speaking, and a battle between 4 brains and 3 schmucks and one non-recusing pig over one fence sitter’s vote, resulting in an unacceptable “compromise” being the result to get 5-4.
No, no, that was what the Fat Lady sang!
—Severability was not in the bill. —
Yep. And the comical part is that it used to be but was removed. That seems pretty deliberate to me. ‘Course, I’m not in the SCOTUS.
Yogi Berra Sayings and Quotations www.retrogalaxy.com/sports/yogi-berra.aspCached
“It ain’t over ‘til it’s over”. This quote is undoubtedly the most well known Yogi-ism. It is also one of the more coherent ones. He first said this about the 1973 ...
InTrade has Obama at 53% likely to be re-elected but they have SCOTUS striking down the mandate for ObamaCare at 72%. For what it’s worth.
I hope they’re right about SCOTUS. I want the whole thing dumped on its communist butt.
That would be my guess too, but I hope we’re both wrong.
I’d love to see them shock us and strike the whole thing down.
I will be very happy if the Supreme Court overturns ObamaCare. But it does come with a political downside. Obama will then be able to fire up his base by campaigning on the premise that the “evil” Republican-appointed Supreme Court justices “took away” their healthcare, and how important it will be to re-elect him so that he can have the chance to pick SC justices that are more sympathetic to the liberal cause.
If that guy is re-elected by 53%, it will be one of the most colossal failures by an opposing party in the nation’s history.
What more could a guy do, to prove himself unworthy? If the Republicans can’t capitalize on this guy’s negatives, just damn.
I’ll believe it when I see it. Don’t underestimate Chicago tactics.
They overturn the mandate (which is very unpopular) and Romney doesn’t have to deal with that issue as he goes after the rest of Obamacare.
Oh, I agree. A lot of InTrade bettors are outside the US so I suspect the news they get from the US is largely through CNN, the New York Times and the British press. If that was your sources, you'd probably think Obama was still highly popular.
or when the Fat Lady sings.
Who’s the Fat Lady and has she already sung (to Obama)
Kagan or Sotomayor. They both are a little plus sizey.
I think that's the least likely scenario, honestly. I doubt the court has any desire to go line-by-line through that monstrosity and say, "this stays, this goes".
“If that guy is re-elected by 53%, it will be one of the most colossal failures by an opposing party in the nations history.”
53% means a 53% chance he will win by any amount, even by one vote, not that he will get 53% of the vote.
I was pretty sure I’d get a response on that point. Tell you what, if you want to change that 53% in my response to 50% + 1 vote, it will still be one of the most colossal failures by an opposing party in the nations history.
Thanks for the response. No problem...
NULLIFICATION TIME if he tries that!!!
I said it before I’ll say it again: They’ll uphold the law.
No...they will strike down the whole thing. It is not their job to pick and choose. That belongs to Congress.
And they don't give baseball scores.
This id fine, but if the SCOTUS would grow a pair and DEMAND a VALID BC:
POLL: Supreme Court Insiders Think Obama Is Finished
That settle’s it!
Here’s how it gets enforced: I sue my employer if he tries to implement any part of the act. I sue anyone who goes along with any provision of the act, when that acts to my detriment. You think lawyers won’t jump all over this hot legal cottage industry? They may vote democrat but ideology is trumped by their wallets.
The Courts have to award damages because the employer, or any private or government entity, cannot implement something not authorized by law. 0bamacare dies the death of 1000 cuts in the American courtroom.
I have heard some commentator with a legal background (Andrew Napolitano, Hugh Hewitt, don’t recall exactly who) say that SCOTUS has done that before, created severability where none in the law existed.
What’s the over-under on that?
I can hope and will pray.
Also, when you come to a fork in the road, take it.
Nobody goes to that restaurant anymore, it's too crowded.
Ah say son, you got that character down cold!!!! One of my favorite Mel Blanc voices. How did he do it???
If he contemplates going there, let us remind him that last year, on 3 days’ notice, one million “tea party” types showed up in DC.