Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Might We See a Landslide?
American Thinker ^ | June 21, 2012 | Bruce Walker

Posted on 06/21/2012 10:17:20 AM PDT by kingattax

click here to read article


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 101-114 next last

1 posted on 06/21/2012 10:17:25 AM PDT by kingattax
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: kingattax

Gallup today has ZEro at 43%. Sorry, Mitt-haters, but that’s landslide territory for Romney. NO president wins with that level of support: Clinton managed once, in a three-way race with a third-party candidate taking 17%. There’s no Ross Perot to save ZEro this time around.


2 posted on 06/21/2012 10:22:25 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: kingattax
I sure hope so. A lot of people have been gravely effected.

I hope the elderly remember that FOR THE FIRST TIME...and 2 years in a row, they did not get a COLA.

I hope the youth realize that Obama shut up the job market with his industry killing moves AND HIS DAMN OBAMACARE.

Heaven help us if he has 4 more years.

3 posted on 06/21/2012 10:22:37 AM PDT by Sacajaweau
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: kingattax

I was taught in grade school in the 60’s that when there is a seriously disappointing wheat crop in the USSR, they get a new leader.

Same here. People kept worrying about Obama in the polls last year. I was not interested because the only remotely meaningful polls are the polls this year, and even then only very close to the election, and by then we will be in a REAL sh**storm. Obama will be blathering and drooling on national TV. Frankly, if you look at reviews of his last couple of speeches, even by liberals, it appears he is in the blathering stage.

This will be a VERY interesting year. Hell, it already is a record breaker. We may even get another September 1st, 1939 event if things keep going the way they are.


4 posted on 06/21/2012 10:25:33 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: kingattax

uh..RCP says “NO!”

Romney needs 100 more electoral votes from these “toss up states”:

Arizona (11)
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Missouri (10)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)

So, we can only lose NV & NH and still win....
Doesn’t look like “landslide” potential to me!


5 posted on 06/21/2012 10:27:05 AM PDT by G Larry (There's no hope of a safe landing when you hire a suicidal pilot!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: G Larry

Pa will be in play.


6 posted on 06/21/2012 10:29:00 AM PDT by wiggen (The teacher card. When the racism card just won't work.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: kingattax

7 posted on 06/21/2012 10:29:51 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wiggen
Pa will be in play.

I have some ocean front property in Utah that might interest you. :)

8 posted on 06/21/2012 10:34:13 AM PDT by Ingtar ("As the light begins to fade in the city on the hill")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: G Larry
RCP is worthless. They use averages of polls that include some that are so far out of whack that even the dumbest of liberals don't believe them.
9 posted on 06/21/2012 10:35:57 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: LS

“There’s no Ross Perot to save ZEro this time around.”

Yet!


10 posted on 06/21/2012 10:37:16 AM PDT by I Shall Endure
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: kingattax
We dismiss Obama at our peril at this juncture.

But I gotta wonder how many Dems are wondering "if only we'd elected Hillary..."

11 posted on 06/21/2012 10:37:16 AM PDT by GSWarrior
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LS

Gallup today has ZEro at 43%. Sorry, Mitt-haters, but that’s landslide territory for Romney.

I really wish FREEPERS had a better grasp on the American election system. It is sad that a FREEPER like yourself would be so ignorant to the fact that popular vote does not elect a President and that the electoral college does. I guess it is the decrease in education that has resulted in even FREEPERS being ignorant.


12 posted on 06/21/2012 10:37:26 AM PDT by napscoordinator
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: wiggen

RCP says PA is Obama +8
Even with LV’s it’s +6

BUT!
That LV tally was 30 days ago, so perhaps an update will help.


13 posted on 06/21/2012 10:40:13 AM PDT by G Larry (There's no hope of a safe landing when you hire a suicidal pilot!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: LS
Back in 2008 Obama got 69,456,897 votes, and McCain got 59,934,814 votes. That's a 10,000,000 vote difference.

That's 15% more votes than McCain got ~ which is really, really, really, really tough to overlook.

The definition you want to apply to "landslide" would require Obama to get 72 million votes and McCain to have just 58 million votes. That would be a difference of just shy of 14 million votes ~ or insurmountable ~ and in fact, 40% more than Obama got.

I'm not as picky, and based on the best political theory, any landslide in an American election starts when one candidate gets as much as 53%. That's because the transition of factions from one political affiliation to the other is much faster these days.

Now this presents a problem for pollsters that may be insurmountable ~ particularly if both premier candidates are actually undergoing a relaxation of popularity ~ Romney inside Republican circles and Obama inside Democrat circles.

Let me use Obama's recent ploy with the illegal alien chillun' as an example. He took them hostage ~ if illegals want their children born abroad to be made legal their legal relatives have to vote for Obama. The polls didn't budge with Hispanics. Or, alternatively, the legal Hispanics with illegal relatives are wildly enthusiastic about the idea but the legal Hispanics witout illegal relatives thinks he's crude beyond belief ~ imagine, taking children hostage in modern America? Who'd do that eh!

So, a wash ~ maybe.

But does that do anything to that 10 million voter advantage Obama had? It may not. Most of these polls imagine that if people drop the Democrat they'll vote for the Republican, but what if all that happens is they just don't vote for the Democrat? Then a loss on one side doesn't translate to a gain on the other side ~ except in the polls. The pollsters tend to throw outliers out ~ people who don't intend to vote for President just don't count ~ but if all you do is replace them with somebody who says he's going to vote for President you end up raising the Republican's percentage while dropping the Democrat's percentage.

That's not happening here. The difference is 15% and it consists of people who'd rather not vote at all than vote for a Republican (whereas last time they voted for Obama). Add to that the number who'd rather not vote for President than vote for a Leftwinger and you have a doggone good possibility that Obama can win even while losing upwards of 10 million votes from the last election.

14 posted on 06/21/2012 10:42:20 AM PDT by muawiyah
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: kingattax

We would see a political landslide, if a small government conservative was the final choice for ‘12 POTUS! Two leftists candidates, as the final, major candidate picks for ‘12 POTUS=the left has, already, won the race for ‘12 POTUS!


15 posted on 06/21/2012 10:43:56 AM PDT by johnthebaptistmoore (The world continues to be stuck in a "all leftist, all of the time" funk. BUNK THE FUNK!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LS

Latest Bloomberg poll (if Mitt haters want to believe it)shows the anointed one with a 13-point bulge over Romney.


16 posted on 06/21/2012 10:44:25 AM PDT by luvbach1 (Stop the destruction in 2012 or continue the decline)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: I Shall Endure

The Libertarian Party is trying to get their candidate on ballots.


17 posted on 06/21/2012 10:46:36 AM PDT by luvbach1 (Stop the destruction in 2012 or continue the decline)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: G Larry

I am sure that Philadelphia will churn out enough votes for Obama, even if they have to hit 300% of the eligible voters this time.


18 posted on 06/21/2012 10:47:09 AM PDT by Ingtar ("As the light begins to fade in the city on the hill")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: kingattax

Demographic changes are making voters less responsive to policy failure.

In the past, the abject failure of performance of a president like Jimmy Carter could result in the voting public making an evaluation of his policies and rejecting him in a landslide.

In our day, the percentage of the voting public that evaluates presidents (and politicians generally) on the basis of policy success has declined.

Massive immigration, the emergence of unmarried women with children as the dominant family form in major population groups and the indoctrination by government schools and popular culture have created voting blocs that are impervious to conventional policy failure.

Consider that two giant states, California and New York, are beyond reach no matter how badly Obama does in office. His success or failure in conventional terms such as in how government policy affects the economy and how he has conducted foreign policy are for the most part irrelevant to the voting base that will hand him victory in these states.


19 posted on 06/21/2012 10:48:12 AM PDT by Meet the New Boss
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Sacajaweau

With a bow to Nathan Hale, I only regret that I have but one vote to give for my country.


20 posted on 06/21/2012 10:49:00 AM PDT by luvbach1 (Stop the destruction in 2012 or continue the decline)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 101-114 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson