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Chinese Economic Data Is Looking Horrible, And The Government Is Lying About It
TBI ^ | 6-23-2012 | Joe Weisenthal

Posted on 06/23/2012 2:27:47 PM PDT by blam

Chinese Economic Data Is Looking Horrible, And The Government Is Lying About It

Joe Weisenthal
Jun. 23, 2012, 12:10 PM

AP Photo

It's long been believed that China's economic data is untrustworthy, but now that the Chinese economy is clearly cooling down, that theory is being put to the test, and it seems to be confirmed that the government isn't always forthright about the numbers.

Keith Bradsher at the New York Times has a good overview of the situation.

He notes that in addition to there being an economic slowdown, this is a year of political transition, which further creates pressure on folks at all levels of government and in state-owned-enterprises to juice up the data.

“The government officials don’t want to see the negative,” so they tell power managers to report usage declines as zero change, said a chief executive in the power sector.

Another top corporate executive in China with access to electricity grid data from two provinces in east-central China that are centers of heavy industry, Shandong and Jiangsu, said that electricity consumption in both provinces had dropped more than 10 percent in May from a year earlier. Electricity consumption has also fallen in parts of western China. Yet, the economist with ties to the statistical agency said that cities and provinces across the country had reported flat or only slightly rising electricity consumption.

Meanwhile, for some ugly numbers that are coming from official sources, check out these reports from Xinhua.

Chinese cement output is up just 5% this year compared to growth of 14.3% for the same period last year. In May, flat glass output fell 10.2% (!) vs. growth over over 20% in the same period last year. The building material sector has seen a 7% profit drop.

(snip)

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: china; commodities; economy; investing

1 posted on 06/23/2012 2:27:53 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

Chicoms lying about anything....everything....who knew?


2 posted on 06/23/2012 2:29:35 PM PDT by john drake
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To: blam

Sounds familiar.


3 posted on 06/23/2012 2:30:33 PM PDT by citizencon
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To: blam

” Chinese Economic Data Is Looking Horrible, And The Government Is Lying About It “

And we expected them to be somehow more ‘pure’ than any other Gummint??

(Seen a US employment report lately??)


4 posted on 06/23/2012 2:32:46 PM PDT by Uncle Ike (Rope is cheap, and there are lots of trees...)
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To: Uncle Ike

Shouldn’t we be looking into our own economic lies first?


5 posted on 06/23/2012 2:42:05 PM PDT by The Antiyuppie ("When small men cast long shadows, then it is very late in the day.")
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To: blam

China has a serious debt problem.

Government debt is 89% of GDP.


6 posted on 06/23/2012 2:45:59 PM PDT by moonshot925
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To: blam
China's Phony Economic Data

Saturday, June 23, 2012

Even NyTi is starting to get it:

As the Chinese economy continues to sputter, prominent corporate executives in China and Western economists say there is evidence that local and provincial officials are falsifying economic statistics to disguise the true depth of the troubles.

Record-setting mountains of excess coal have accumulated at the country’s biggest storage areas because power plants are burning less coal in the face of tumbling electricity demand. But local and provincial government officials have forced plant managers not to report to Beijing the full extent of the slowdown, power sector executives said.

Electricity production and consumption have been considered a telltale sign of a wide variety of economic activity. They are widely viewed by foreign investors and even some Chinese officials as the gold standard for measuring what is really happening in the country’s economy, because the gathering and reporting of data in China is not considered as reliable as it is in many countries.

Indeed, officials in some cities and provinces are also overstating economic output, corporate revenue, corporate profits and tax receipts, the corporate executives and economists said. The officials do so by urging businesses to keep separate sets of books, showing improving business results and tax payments that do not exist...

“The government officials don’t want to see the negative,” so they tell power managers to report usage declines as zero change, said a chief executive in the power sector.

Another top corporate executive in China with access to electricity grid data from two provinces in east-central China that are centers of heavy industry, Shandong and Jiangsu, said that electricity consumption in both provinces had dropped more than 10 percent in May from a year earlier. Electricity consumption has also fallen in parts of western China. Yet, the economist with ties to the statistical agency said that cities and provinces across the country had reported flat or only slightly rising electricity consumption.

The past money printing which distorted investments in the country, plus the heavy central planning that still exists in sectors of the economy, will result in one of the greatest economic crashes in history.

It will be blamed on China's move toward capitalism, but it is the government interference in the market economy via central banking and government directed activity that has set up the phony boom and developing crash.

7 posted on 06/23/2012 3:00:55 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

If this keeps up, it’ll take the Chinese three years longer to zoom by us on GNP.


8 posted on 06/23/2012 3:03:07 PM PDT by BobL
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To: BobL

China’s GDP(PPP) per capita is $8,382 in 2011.

The United States GDP(PPP) per capita is $48,387 in 2011.

The average Chinese is very poor compared to the USA.


9 posted on 06/23/2012 3:57:01 PM PDT by moonshot925
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To: blam

“China’s lying!” Don’t look at the world’s factories in Asia! Look at Iberian Europe! Oh, no! Our wonderful brothels in southern Europe! “Look at Europe!”

But don’t look at the debt regime in our USA, folks, whatever you do.

[It’s hard to stop looking at the debt regime built by our political regulators—not to mention their current officious robberies and other crime sprees. They’re really noisy and stupid.]


10 posted on 06/23/2012 4:03:38 PM PDT by familyop ("Wanna cigarette? You're never too young to start." --Deacon, "Waterworld")
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To: moonshot925
"China’s GDP(PPP) per capita is $8,382 in 2011.

The United States GDP(PPP) per capita is $48,387 in 2011.

The average Chinese is very poor compared to the USA.
"

Problems with that analysis are the exchange rate and differences between GDPs (one production of useful things, the other debt and spending by our American political/regulator class).

And we know that anti-American, commie-conspiring globalists cow tow to their fantasies while in China.


11 posted on 06/23/2012 4:08:01 PM PDT by familyop ("Wanna cigarette? You're never too young to start." --Deacon, "Waterworld")
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To: moonshot925
"China’s GDP(PPP) per capita is $8,382 in 2011.

The United States GDP(PPP) per capita is $48,387 in 2011.

The average Chinese is very poor compared to the USA.
"

Problems with that analysis are the exchange rate and differences between GDPs (one production of useful things, the other debt and spending by our American political/regulator class).

And we know that anti-American, commie-conspiring globalists cow tow to their fantasies while in China.


12 posted on 06/23/2012 4:08:21 PM PDT by familyop ("Wanna cigarette? You're never too young to start." --Deacon, "Waterworld")
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To: moonshot925

And see the Chinese sovereign wealth fund along with trillions in bond investments around the globe.

The propaganda that we’re seeing is part of attempt to fool us and finish us off in the USA. There’s no way that Americans will be deluded as to who in our midst is waging an economic war against our nation and war against families while setting us up for national weakness before a world war.

We won’t be fooled, and we won’t forget.


13 posted on 06/23/2012 4:14:35 PM PDT by familyop ("Wanna cigarette? You're never too young to start." --Deacon, "Waterworld")
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To: familyop

“Problems with that analysis are the exchange rate”

I know, which is why the figures are adjusted to the Purchasing Power Parity(PPP) in Geary–Khamis dollars(international dollars).

“one production of useful things, the other debt and spending by our American political/regulator class”

What useful things does China produce?


14 posted on 06/23/2012 4:25:47 PM PDT by moonshot925
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To: moonshot925

“China’s GDP(PPP) per capita is $8,382 in 2011.
The United States GDP(PPP) per capita is $48,387 in 2011.
The average Chinese is very poor compared to the USA.”

Wow, I didn’t realize they were even that close to catching us. Considering that their population is 4 times ours, their GDP is now very close to ours.

I guess they’ll overtake us even sooner than I thought.


15 posted on 06/23/2012 4:28:24 PM PDT by BobL
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To: familyop

“And we know that anti-American, commie-conspiring globalists cow tow to their fantasies while in China.”

Wow, that’s a cheap shot at you. I wouldn’t take it.


16 posted on 06/23/2012 4:29:22 PM PDT by BobL
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To: moonshot925

Poisoned toys, poisoned dog food, poisoned toothpaste, crap furniture, etc...


17 posted on 06/23/2012 4:45:18 PM PDT by EEGator
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To: moonshot925
"What useful things does China produce?"

In the way of low priced hardware, everything that our American populace needs to survive fairly comfortably for a decade or more without generating revenues, after our misguided leaders' debt debacle hits the fan. Briggs and Stratton engines, heavy equipment, just about everything. The Chinese small overhead valve engines are better than the Briggs and others, BTW. Having been chucked out of steel work in the early '80s by the rotting elite drunks and queers in management then (not to mention the slumlord unions they were in bed with), I've run and rebuilt both kinds of engines (and more) since.

More to the point and origin of the whole, IMO, we're morally bankrupt. Every political group and associated NGO is evil. So are their local and national socialist dependents, sitting, plotting, scheming, regulating and sucking up debt/revenues.

We need the economic dump. It will be like a bath.


18 posted on 06/23/2012 4:47:22 PM PDT by familyop ("Wanna cigarette? You're never too young to start." --Deacon, "Waterworld")
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To: familyop
kow towing
19 posted on 06/23/2012 4:49:57 PM PDT by tumblindice (Sic Semper Tyrannis)
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To: EEGator
"Poisoned toys, poisoned dog food, poisoned toothpaste, crap furniture, etc..."

But we do have the satisfaction of knowing that managers were executed for their globetrotting superiors' "master planning" (locations) and safety violations (same as in our own past).

I don't want more bureaucracy, though. We need morality. The economic housecleaning ahead should accomplish much of that. It's hard to enforce social pathologies and robberies without many political regulators in government offices.


20 posted on 06/23/2012 4:54:30 PM PDT by familyop ("Wanna cigarette? You're never too young to start." --Deacon, "Waterworld")
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To: BobL

China’s fertility rate keeps decreasing.

In 1970 China had a 5.5 fertility rate.

In 1990 China had a 2.3 fertility rate.

In 2010 China had a 1.6 fertility rate.

China is having more deaths and less births.

By 2050 China will have less than 1 billion people.


21 posted on 06/23/2012 4:55:34 PM PDT by moonshot925
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To: familyop

Good post. Like I often say, this computer I’m using is Chinese and works great. Yes, I’ve had some problems with Chinese stuff...just like American stuff. But, generally, their stuff is much more reliable than anything we made even 20 years ago...not to mention being one quarter the price.

But, of course, we pay a price for that. Once China cuts off our lifeline, we are doomed. Sure, they’ll feel it too, of course, but they have the rest of the world they can supply. We’ll be alone, trying to figure out how to make a pencil.


22 posted on 06/23/2012 4:58:26 PM PDT by BobL
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To: moonshot925

“By 2050 China will have less than 1 billion people.”

Closer to 2100...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China

But even in 2050, they’ll still have 3 times our population. But, yes, lots of things can happen. They could have another Cultural Revolution and reset their GNP...but maybe they won’t. Likewise, we could fix Social Security and Medicare and NOT crash our economy within a decade...but does anyone think that will happen?


23 posted on 06/23/2012 5:03:57 PM PDT by BobL
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To: BobL

“But, of course, we pay a price for that. Once China cuts off our lifeline, we are doomed.”

What lifeline??? China’s economic growth is export driven. Without western consumption, China would be doomed.

In 2010 the United States manufactured $1.855 Trillion worth of goods with 12.5 million workers.

In 2010 China manufactured $1.922 Trillion worth of goods with 115 million workers.

We are able to produce just as much with less workers.


24 posted on 06/23/2012 5:07:41 PM PDT by moonshot925
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To: moonshot925

“What lifeline??? China’s economic growth is export driven. Without western consumption, China would be doomed.”

There are so many critical items that we simply DO NOT PRODUCE. If China cuts us off...we are frozen. If you don’t believe me, then you’ll find out, I guess. Even the military is starting to wonder whether it was smart to use Chinese chips in their electronics.

Again, if China cuts us off, they still have 95% of the world to supply...they’ll likely be able to ride it through. But how to build a factory that makes IPODs when you don’t even have a way to get the tooling to build them?


25 posted on 06/23/2012 5:29:02 PM PDT by BobL
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To: familyop

I hope you’re right about things getting better.


26 posted on 06/23/2012 5:32:50 PM PDT by EEGator
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To: moonshot925

A good example is the Norinco A-47. They have an entire city dedicated to making the carbine. The kids grow up and expect to work in the plant, a lot like fathers, sons, etc. coming up from Kentucky and Tennessee and going to work for GM, Ford or Chrysler in their factories. Very labor intensive. It’s the main reason they still have a milled receiver. No stamping or pressing like most of the others, parts milled from billets.
On the other hand, I had to choose between paying at Lowes or Menards almost $500 for a Bostitch flooring cleat/staple nailer, or $116.00, with a 20% off coupon, for basically the same tool from Harbor Freight, `Central Pneumatics’, made in China. I don’t know where the Bostitch was made. It’s a Stanley tool and I know they have a lot of their stuff made in China.
The Chinese cleat nailer works great, have used it the last two days nailing hard wood flooring without a jam or problem. Sweating like a pig, but I would have been doing that with the Bostitch.
Political axiom: if you want to get peoples’ attention, appeal to their pocketbook rather than their patriotism. Car manufacturing, same thing.


27 posted on 06/23/2012 5:40:19 PM PDT by tumblindice (Sic Semper Tyrannis)
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To: BobL

“Again, if China cuts us off, they still have 95% of the world to supply”

What if we cut off the Strait of Malacca and the Strait of Hormuz to all Chinese shipping. How will China get oil?

“China cuts us off, they still have 95% of the world to supply”

What if we decide to blockade China’s ports?


28 posted on 06/23/2012 5:50:01 PM PDT by moonshot925
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To: BobL

“Wow, I didn’t realize they were even that close to catching us. Considering that their population is 4 times ours, their GDP is now very close to ours.”

I guess they’ll overtake us even sooner than I thought.

Their workforce crested 3 years ago.

Median age in China: 35.5
Median age in the United States: 36.9

Percentage 0-14 (US) 20.1
Percentage 0-14 (CH) 17.6

I suspect the age at which the US and Chinese populations are balanced is around 18, 19 or so. The US has more children and adolescents as a percent of the population than China.

The only reason why China isn’t older than the US, is because they have more 20-30 year olds as a percentage of the population and more 40-50 year olds (and fewer 60+), about half that of the US.

What’s going to happen when the 50 year old folks become 60, and there’s no one to replace them?


29 posted on 06/23/2012 5:51:22 PM PDT by JCBreckenridge (Texas, Texas, Whisky)
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To: moonshot925

“What if we cut off the Strait of Malacca and the Strait of Hormuz to all Chinese shipping. How will China get oil?”

The Spratley’s for starters. But even without that, what make you think that China has a Third World military? You might want to read the Washington Times sometime - the stuff that China’s doing is so scary that I simply don’t read it anymore.

We will not be able to own the waters, particularly near China, with a navy that’s half the size of even Jimmy Carter’s navy.

http://www.history.navy.mil/branches/org9-4.htm

You’re thinking of a United States that ended many years ago.


30 posted on 06/23/2012 6:05:10 PM PDT by BobL
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To: BobL
"But, of course, we pay a price for that. Once China cuts off our lifeline, we are doomed. Sure, they’ll feel it too, of course, but they have the rest of the world they can supply."

There are all kinds of trades, of course, but the Chinese trades of products for foreign commodities is noticeable.

That's why I've so often repeated advice for our fellow Americans to learn to make something useful as a hobby for now (pending possible shutdowns of local regulatory offices in the future). Only maybe a very few more will do it, but that's better than fewer.


31 posted on 06/23/2012 6:17:49 PM PDT by familyop ("Wanna cigarette? You're never too young to start." --Deacon, "Waterworld")
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To: BobL

We have 11 100,000 ton nuclear-powered supercarriers.

China has 1 70,000 ton conventionally-powered carrier.

We have 71 nuclear-powered submarines.

China has 8 nuclear-powered submarines.

Our fleet tonnage is 3,241,536 204.

China’s fleet tonnage is 626,252 144.

Our Navy can carry twice as many aircraft at sea as all the rest of the world combined.


32 posted on 06/23/2012 6:20:10 PM PDT by moonshot925
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To: moonshot925

Middle East.


33 posted on 06/23/2012 6:44:33 PM PDT by BobL
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To: familyop

“That’s why I’ve so often repeated advice for our fellow Americans to learn to make something useful as a hobby for now (pending possible shutdowns of local regulatory offices in the future). Only maybe a very few more will do it, but that’s better than fewer.”

I’m a bit different. I really can’t make stuff, but I can fix just about anything (other than electronics). Rather than making stuff, I’ve decided to take advantage of Chinese prices and hoard pretty much every non-perishable item I can think of...even water heaters (I have 3 spares). The future will be a LOT DIFFERENT from the present, for many, many, reasons and the idea of buying a water heater for $300 to $400 will be a distant memory (as an example).


34 posted on 06/23/2012 6:47:48 PM PDT by BobL
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To: blam

Where’s the “unexpectedly”, or “surprisingly” revised numbers like 0b0wma’s regime?


35 posted on 06/23/2012 6:51:29 PM PDT by rawcatslyentist ("Behold, I am against you, O arrogant one," Jeremiah 50:31)
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To: BobL
You’re thinking of a United States that ended many years ago.

There is a wonderful story by Lord Dunsany -- "The Sword of Welleran", written around 1915 or so. In the story, there is a great city (Merimna) which has carved out a vast empire, largely due to the military prowess of about 6 great warlords, the greatest of whom is Welleran. Of course, all 6 have been dead for years, but the barbarian tribes simply don't believe this. Little by little, the empire is whittled away until only the city of Merimna itself remains unconquered -- and the barbarians will not approach Merimna because they are so afraid of Welleran.

But the day comes when a barbarian climbs the city walls and touches the boot of Welleran, the great warlord who stands on the wall, guarding the city. And the barbarian finds that the boot is made of stone, and that Welleran is merely a statue. Merimna is not what she had been so many years ago, and all her leaders are dead.

36 posted on 06/23/2012 6:54:02 PM PDT by ClearCase_guy
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To: blam
The officials do so by urging businesses to keep separate sets of books, showing improving business results and tax payments that do not exist...

Ha...they must have hired some Greek accountants....

The Italians invented double book keeping....

And the Greeks invented triple books...

1. one set for the business owner

2. Another set to show his spouse (sans "funny money for mistress and playing around)

3. Final set of books for the tax authorities.

37 posted on 06/23/2012 7:12:33 PM PDT by spokeshave (The only people better off today than 4 years ago are the Prisoners at Guantanamo.)
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To: ClearCase_guy

The 21st century will be another American centurty.

Why?

The Chinese population will hit its peak in 2025.

It will be on a steady decline after that.

China is already having labor shortages.

They will get worse.


38 posted on 06/23/2012 7:12:42 PM PDT by moonshot925
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To: BobL

Well done and agreed. Being able to do repairs is extremely important. Yes, water heaters and many other things may well be very expensive in the near future. Inflation in countries of trading partners, low dollar, lack of foreign willingness to trade with us for a time,... That would do it.

Will be building a heavily insulated (inside and out), drainback heating shed soon with a 300 tank, then another shed with the same kind of tank (tanks also heavily insulated). Interrupted that project to start fencing (for yaks...extreme cold up here, high and dry in summer).

The collectors for heating will be homemade with copper cores, modules direct drive power to pumps (and extra pumps). Those will provide much of the hot water and heating here (well over 300 sun days). A wood stove and backup water heater will provide the rest. Propane will be used for cooking. A 1,000 gallon tank should take care of that for about 20 years.

Tradeoff for the uncomfortable weather (usually high winds, no trees, extreme cold much of the year).

Labor intensive, but I have more time than money. Such systems with thermal storage can also work better than the standard closed loop (good for sunny day and overnight only with house on mono-slab).


39 posted on 06/23/2012 7:19:49 PM PDT by familyop ("Wanna cigarette? You're never too young to start." --Deacon, "Waterworld")
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To: BobL

300-gallon, even (re. each of the two tanks).


40 posted on 06/23/2012 7:21:08 PM PDT by familyop ("Wanna cigarette? You're never too young to start." --Deacon, "Waterworld")
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To: BobL

And, of course, throwing this out again because it never gets brought up.

The last military experience China has of ANY kind is a fairly poor performance in an invasion of Vietnam in 1979 (unless you count running over college kids with tanks in 1989.)

That’s 33 years ago and it’s pretty impossible for anyone in the current PLA to have had any experience commanding much of anything in that war.

The last naval war China fought against anyone was in 1895. They lost, of course. I honestly couldn’t even bring to mind the last naval war they won.

There is inifintely more to warfare of any kind than “bean counting.”


41 posted on 06/23/2012 7:40:23 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: familyop

“The collectors for heating will be homemade with copper cores, modules direct drive power to pumps (and extra pumps). Those will provide much of the hot water and heating here (well over 300 sun days). “

Serious hardware. I TRUE FREEPER!!!


42 posted on 06/23/2012 8:00:02 PM PDT by BobL
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To: BobL

Thanks. If anyone else is interested, see the following. The system can be modified, scaled up or whatever, and the aviation engineer who developed it has also built other systems. Thanks to him for offering the designs.

$2K Solar Space + Water Heating — One Simple DIY System
http://www.builditsolar.com/Projects/SpaceHeating/DHWplusSpace/Main.htm


43 posted on 06/23/2012 8:07:37 PM PDT by familyop ("Wanna cigarette? You're never too young to start." --Deacon, "Waterworld")
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