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Tropical Storm Debbie forms in Cental Gulf of Mexico
National Hurricane Center ^ | 6/23/2012 | National Hurricane Center

Posted on 06/23/2012 3:17:36 PM PDT by varina davis

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DATA...AND PRELIMINARY RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IF THE PLANE IS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE SEE MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

&& HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$ FORECASTER BERG/AVILA


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Louisiana
KEYWORDS: debbie; debby; storm; tropical; tropicalstormdebby
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Very early TS and first in history for 4 to form before July 4.
1 posted on 06/23/2012 3:17:48 PM PDT by varina davis
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To: varina davis

The above was the 2 p.m. tropical forecast. Here is the updated announcement of Tropical Storm Debbie:

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION


LOCATION...26.2N 87.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS


CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF
NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK


AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM DEBBY.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN ON SUNDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 1001
MB...29.56 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND


WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

NEXT ADVISORY


NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA


2 posted on 06/23/2012 3:21:21 PM PDT by varina davis (A real American patriot -- Gov. Rick Perry)
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To: varina davis

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...


3 posted on 06/23/2012 3:23:37 PM PDT by varina davis (A real American patriot -- Gov. Rick Perry)
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To: varina davis
Macht nicht. TS's are a dime a dozen. They didn't even name them until recently.

Could use some rain up north here though, so bring 'er on.

4 posted on 06/23/2012 3:24:13 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: varina davis

This storm is just practice from our detractors who quite possibly can control the weather. Target: Tampa and RNC.


5 posted on 06/23/2012 3:24:53 PM PDT by tenthirteen
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To: hinckley buzzard

Don’t think you would be so nonplussed if you lived on the gulf coast. A hurricane anywhere along the gulf would be incredibly dangerous.


6 posted on 06/23/2012 3:26:10 PM PDT by varina davis (A real American patriot -- Gov. Rick Perry)
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To: varina davis

Weather Underground 5-day forecast has it heading for Texas:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201204_5day.html


7 posted on 06/23/2012 3:26:59 PM PDT by Rocky (Obama is pure evil)
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To: Rocky

The models are pretty divided, but yes, that’s the current thinking. It will likely sit and spin for a while since there are no strong steering currents presently.


8 posted on 06/23/2012 3:28:27 PM PDT by varina davis (A real American patriot -- Gov. Rick Perry)
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To: Rocky

Its been raining in Venice Florida for a week on and off...today its been on all day...very seldom do you get an all day rain around here...usually a thunderstorm and an inch of rain in a hour and gone..


9 posted on 06/23/2012 3:30:47 PM PDT by Hojczyk
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To: varina davis

Hang on Galveston...

10 posted on 06/23/2012 3:31:07 PM PDT by freedumb2003 (Guns Walked -- People Died -- Holder Lied -- Obama Golfed (thanks, Secret Agent Man))
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To: varina davis
Very early TS and first in history for 4 to form before July 4.

I believe this formed from the remnant of a cold front. Last week was the coolest (a few degrees, but still warm) and driest I can remember for Florida in mid June.

11 posted on 06/23/2012 3:31:32 PM PDT by Moonman62 (The US has become a government with a country, rather than a country with a government.)
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To: hinckley buzzard
What's recently? 1950? That's when they got phonetic names. '53 is when they got "girl" names.

The early 50's is NOT recent by most peoples calculation...unless you are REALLY old. Maybe you are...which could explain your handle...and attitude.

12 posted on 06/23/2012 3:35:09 PM PDT by NELSON111
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To: varina davis
Not wishing anyone any bad luck, but we sure as heck need rain up here in the Ozarks. Bone dry. Low humidity. Supposed to hit 100 on Wed/Thurs. Most unpleasant. Watering restrictions in place in many locales.

Time for bigger AC unit!!

13 posted on 06/23/2012 3:37:13 PM PDT by donozark (Col. C.Beckwith:I'd rather go down the river with 7 studs than with a hundred shitheads.)
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To: varina davis

Buy gas now!


14 posted on 06/23/2012 3:42:05 PM PDT by aomagrat (Gun owners who vote for democrats are too stupid to own guns.)
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To: Moonman62
I believe this formed from the remnant of a cold front.

Nope. Formed as a part of the monsoon trof that was in the Caribbean. We've (I'm a meteorologist) been watching it for the better part of a week. The computer models, the global models anyway, have been forecasting it to develop over the Gulf over the weekend and they were right.

15 posted on 06/23/2012 3:45:20 PM PDT by NELSON111
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To: tenthirteen

I would think Debbie would target Dallas.


16 posted on 06/23/2012 3:45:29 PM PDT by Ken H
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To: aomagrat

May be sound advice. Oil cos. shutting down rigs as I type...Getting nasty out there.


17 posted on 06/23/2012 3:54:28 PM PDT by donozark (Col. C.Beckwith:I'd rather go down the river with 7 studs than with a hundred shitheads.)
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To: Moonman62

Where do you live in Florida? It’s been pretty wet here in St Augustine (NE FL) for about six weeks, which is actually earlier than our usual “afternoon thundershowers” pattern.

We have had a fair number of nor’easters, in addition to the storms that we say “come from Gainesville”, meaning from the west or the Gulf. It was dry last year but so far, not this year.


18 posted on 06/23/2012 4:00:47 PM PDT by livius
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To: hinckley buzzard

This appears to be a very slow moving tropical storm. I recall one in South Flordia a few years ago that dumped 20 inches of ran and did enormous damage.Pays to always be apprised of what these things are doing.


19 posted on 06/23/2012 4:02:13 PM PDT by rodguy911 (FreeRepublic:Land of the Free because of the Brave--Sarah Palin 2012)
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To: NELSON111

Where to Gulf storms tend to form? In the Gulf itself, or do they more often move into the Gulf as existing hurricanes?

We recently moved to Houston from VA and I’ve never paid a lot of attention to where they originate in this region.


20 posted on 06/23/2012 4:02:35 PM PDT by Nickname
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To: Nickname
Welcome to Houston. I promise it won't suck all the time ;-)

Anyway...that depends. Early in the season they tend to form in the Gulf. By August and Sept. they are more Carri bean/Atlantic storms that track this way.

21 posted on 06/23/2012 4:05:25 PM PDT by NELSON111
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To: livius

Talk about wet here in the Keys its been raining since late April.Very unusual for us.


22 posted on 06/23/2012 4:08:01 PM PDT by rodguy911 (FreeRepublic:Land of the Free because of the Brave--Sarah Palin 2012)
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To: livius

Wet in Orlando area, and some really cool temps for June. Looks like another few days of rain w or w/out TS Debbie


23 posted on 06/23/2012 4:13:08 PM PDT by SeminoleCounty (When I said "close the borders", I did not mean the bookstore chain)
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To: NELSON111

Houston’s been great so far. Not as scenic as where I came from, but the people have been amazingly welcoming for such a sprawling city.

And thanks for the storm info. I’ve always seen them coming way out in the Atlantic but never paid a bit of attention to where they come from in the Gulf!


24 posted on 06/23/2012 4:16:01 PM PDT by Nickname
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To: Ken H

Nice...


25 posted on 06/23/2012 4:40:16 PM PDT by Principled (It's not enthusiasm for Romney, it's grim determination to remove Hussein)
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To: Ken H

LOL


26 posted on 06/23/2012 4:43:31 PM PDT by Drango (A liberal's compassion is limited only by the size of someone else's wallet.)
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To: Ken H

I think you are correct....Debbie does head for Dallas


27 posted on 06/23/2012 4:46:14 PM PDT by Paratrooper
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To: hinckley buzzard

I’ve seen slow-moving tropical storms that caused more problems than fast-moving Cat 2 hurricanes. Every storm is dangerous. Some are more dangerous than others.


28 posted on 06/23/2012 4:56:18 PM PDT by Kirkwood (Zombie Hunter)
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To: livius
St Augustine is practically in another state ;-).

Here's a nearby weather station chart for June 18th. The dew point was in the 60's and the temperature barely got over 85. The dew point is normally 75 with temperatures over 90. It may not sound like much, but the weather this time of year is very predictable, hot and humid always. The 18th was very comfortable.

29 posted on 06/23/2012 5:13:20 PM PDT by Moonman62 (The US has become a government with a country, rather than a country with a government.)
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To: NELSON111
Nope. Formed as a part of the monsoon trof that was in the Caribbean. We've (I'm a meteorologist) been watching it for the better part of a week.

Is it possible this trof got a kick from the remnants of a front?

30 posted on 06/23/2012 5:14:39 PM PDT by Moonman62 (The US has become a government with a country, rather than a country with a government.)
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To: Nickname

Welcome to Houston, I live in the Sugar Land area.


31 posted on 06/23/2012 5:37:21 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Nickname

As mentioned above, beware of tropical storms, as they will flood the crap out of an area. We (in Houston) had Tropical Storm Allison in 2001, and it flooded us like crazy. It was already raining when they called it a tropical storm (unlike hurricanes where you know something is up for days, often many days). I was at work...got an E-Mail that said this rain was a tropical storm, looked outside, and drove home - immediately. Others didn’t and got to spend a few nights at work against their will, as the storm sat on top of us for something like 3 days.

Hurricanes don’t sneak up, and everyone understands them - tropical storms, like Allison can be just a bunch of rain clouds when you go to work...


32 posted on 06/23/2012 5:49:12 PM PDT by BobL
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To: fortheDeclaration; NELSON111; Nickname
Thought I'd take a moment to give you and others in the Houston area some bad news. (I'm very sorry that this is off topic, but very important please)

Please review my post in the following thread as these new type crimes are hitting Houston now.

Five Types Of Looters You Must Prepare For
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/2898747/posts?page=1
My post number 15. Tell your neighbors. :(

33 posted on 06/23/2012 6:06:21 PM PDT by Mr Apple
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To: Moonman62

So you live in or near Miramar? Friends from Miami have told me it’s been pretty cool and rainy there (relatively speaking).

But I don’t think you get nor’easters. We get them in my part of the state, and they’re pretty awful.


34 posted on 06/23/2012 6:15:13 PM PDT by livius
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To: livius

OH No Good Morning America can’t open with under 3.00 gas in South Carlina as this will shut down oil refiners


35 posted on 06/23/2012 7:08:25 PM PDT by scooby321 (h tones)
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To: scooby321; All

Does anybody know what happened to Nati Nurse and the Hurricane Ping List?


36 posted on 06/23/2012 7:15:31 PM PDT by PeteB570 ( Islam is the sea in which the Terrorist Shark swims. The deeper the sea the larger the shark.)
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To: varina davis
"...A hurricane anywhere along the gulf would be incredibly dangerous..."

Yes, they are - both the ones we went through in the Tampa area, anyway ............................ FRegards

37 posted on 06/23/2012 7:35:18 PM PDT by gonzo ( Buy more ammo, dammit! You should already have the firearms ... FRegards)
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To: PeteB570; NautiNurse

I was wondering where NN,Nauti Nurse is as well!


38 posted on 06/24/2012 4:35:24 AM PDT by rodguy911 (FreeRepublic:Land of the Free because of the Brave--Sarah Palin 2012)
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To: Moonman62

Nope. The low pressure started down in the extreme SE Gulf/NW Caribbean. But before that it was a trof in the Caribbean. The front didn’t reach that far. It finally closed off because of thunderstorms lowering the pressure (latent heat release of condensation in the convective complex). It’s of tropical origins.


39 posted on 06/24/2012 4:56:56 AM PDT by NELSON111
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To: basil; txhurl

Looking at the track, we may get some much needed rain. IIRC, the last Debra brought a lot of flooding to our area.


40 posted on 06/24/2012 6:27:28 AM PDT by Arrowhead1952 (It's time to take out the trash in DC.)
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To: Arrowhead1952

At this point, I’d even go for some flooding—but that would take a virtual monsoon right now, I think...


41 posted on 06/24/2012 6:56:18 AM PDT by basil
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To: NELSON111
Nope. The low pressure started down in the extreme SE Gulf/NW Caribbean. But before that it was a trof in the Caribbean. The front didn’t reach that far.

Thanks for the reply but this article seems to indicate that it did originate from a remnant cold front:

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) -- An area of vast moisture is becoming better organized over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

The moisture is associated with a broad-stretching area of low pressure, originating from a leftover cold front over the northwestern Caribbean Sea from earlier this week. It has been slowly moving through the Yucatan Channel and approaching the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.


42 posted on 06/24/2012 7:55:23 AM PDT by Moonman62 (The US has become a government with a country, rather than a country with a government.)
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To: livius
So you live in or near Miramar? Friends from Miami have told me it’s been pretty cool and rainy there (relatively speaking).

The weather's been unusual. At the the end of May, beginning of June it was unusually hot due to an old stalled front that caused the winds to blow from the southwest. Then like I said, earlier this week we had some cooler, drier weather (by about 6 or 7 degrees) due to a front from which this tropical storm formed. For the past few years these fronts have been making it much further south during the beginning of summer than I can remember. Global warming, I guess. /s

43 posted on 06/24/2012 8:05:27 AM PDT by Moonman62 (The US has become a government with a country, rather than a country with a government.)
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To: NautiNurse

Are you on this.. did we miss the ping


44 posted on 06/24/2012 1:27:03 PM PDT by Rightly Biased (How do you say Arkanicide in Kenyan?)
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To: basil

I would take some flooding too. Wife just said it was turning more to the north now.


45 posted on 06/24/2012 3:24:19 PM PDT by Arrowhead1952 (It's time to take out the trash in DC.)
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To: Arrowhead1952

Refreshing this site is getting tiresome—almost as tiresome as our drought is—LOL!

I’ll only believe we are getting rain when I can see it and feel it outside of my house-—that is, if I still know what rain looks like........


46 posted on 06/24/2012 3:44:28 PM PDT by basil
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To: basil

I hear you. I keep getting the service unavailable error too, but just keep trying. I’ve noticed a lot of multiple posts.

I was really hoping this storm would park over Texas and fill our lakes back up or get to 75% full.


47 posted on 06/24/2012 4:10:59 PM PDT by Arrowhead1952 (It's time to take out the trash in DC.)
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To: Arrowhead1952
Wife just said it was turning more to the north now.


Northward is the current course but who knows if that is the final course to landfall.


48 posted on 06/24/2012 6:51:43 PM PDT by deport
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To: Paratrooper
Debbie does head for Dallas

Does, or gives?

49 posted on 06/24/2012 6:56:14 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: All

Stay safe (and dry)my fellow Floridians!


50 posted on 06/24/2012 6:58:05 PM PDT by POWERSBOOTHEFAN (It's hurricane season! Yay!)
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