Skip to comments.Follow the news in summer to know who will win in fall: Obama or Romney?
Posted on 06/24/2012 2:31:42 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Pew Research published poll results Thursday showing President Obama leading Mitt Romney 50% to 46%. They further noted that Democrats were more satisfied with their candidate. You might think, therefore, that Obama was in great shape to win re-election in November. I have a different theory.
It's been well-noted that polls at this point in the election cycle are close to meaningless. Past candidates who were up at this point, such as Michael Dukakis, have ended up losing by big margins, while those behind before the conventions, like Ronald Reagan in 1980, have won in blowouts.
Voter satisfaction is not any better at telling us about the fall result. By a 10-point margin, Republicans were more satisfied with their choice in the early summer of 1992 than Democrats were. Democrat Bill Clinton, of course, would go on to defeat Republican George HW Bush. The average difference, since 1992, between early summer candidate satisfaction (percentage of Democrats satisfied with the candidate v percentage of Republicans satisfied with the candidate) and the eventual election result margin is 10.2 percentage points.
...But even taking into account the competitive Republican primary, you might expect Romney to win by 4-6 percentage points, which is still a comfortable margin.(continued)
(Excerpt) Read more at guardian.co.uk ...
Democrat Bill Clinton, of course, would go on to defeat Republican George HW Bush
With the help of Ross Perot.
Let’s not be duped again by the magical 3rd Party Candidate.
Unless he splits the Demo vote, of course...
As much as I don’t like James Carville, he’s right that it comes down to the economy. He sees the iceberg ahead and nothing can change the course of the ship in time.
Vergil Goode 2012
In the heated charge to the finish line, beware of false landmarks. Keep eyes open for misleading road signs, especially ones erected by the opposition.
There are those who would argue that Romney is as much a Republican as any other Republican, but let's look at the situation. We have a Republican party that's been on a campaign to REMOVE what are called RINOs from running as Republicans. In numerous cases a strong faction called "The TEAParty" has been very instrumental in assisting that cause.
We acquired the Defense of Marriage factions ~ from a base of people who'd earlier been less political.
After the blowout in 2005, where we lost control of Congress to the Democrats due to public revulsion at the behavior of known homosexuals in the party, and to their apparent dominance in certain quarters, we've managed to develop a reputation of being less than welcoming to gays ~ and with that reputation we pick up factions who don't want to see gays take over our schools (and such).
The putative third-party candidate for the GOP-e is definitely a RINO by virtually everyone's definition. He created gay marriage in Massachusetts. He thinks gays should adopt children. His first attempt at hiring on a foreign affairs specialist saw him look first to a gay guy. And so on.
He's even weak on the idea of repealing Obamakkkare, having himself invented the equally fascistic Romneykkkare.
Yup, we have a third party ~ the Mittbots who created GOP-e, right under our nose, and they propose using our label and good name to slip into office.
Ross Perot would have loved to have done that but he decided a bit late in his career to come up with his third-party. Romney and the Mittbots have been on this tear for years.
They must be stopped!
Mitt Romney is no Ronald Reagan.
That being said we have no other alternative than to, hold our nose, and vote for this candidate the liberals gave us.
Unless he splits the Demo vote.
Melvin Greene tilts head and wonders.