Posted on 06/27/2012 12:01:48 PM PDT by Kaslin
BEGIN TRANSCRIPT
RUSH: Many people I know -- and many people I don't know -- are now predicting what the Supreme Court is going to do on Obamacare tomorrow. And I haven't kept a running tally of all the predictions from people I know and people I don't know in the media and outside the media, but it sure seems like most people think that at a minimum, the mandate's gone by 5-4, with Roberts writing the majority opinion and Ginsburg writing the dissent. And these people are offering all kinds of reasons for their predictions. One prediction is, "Look, they gave Obama Arizona to set up taking health care away from him." I don't know if the court works that way, but that's what people think.
Another one is this. This is Ed Whelan at National Review. There's an unwritten rule at the court that justices will read dissents orally from the bench once per term. Dissents. He has found that Ruth "Buzzi" Ginsburg has read more than one dissent this year from this term from the bench, so he's wondering maybe that rule isn't hard and fast anymore. But he says he thinks a guy like Scalia will probably be duty-bound and honor-bound to respect that tradition of reading one dissent per term, live, from the court. And since Scalia already read his dissent on Arizona, that it's gotta be the mandate's gone, because Scalia would have saved his dissent for the biggie, if there was to be one.
I mean, these predictions are running the gamut. And then, of course, there are predictions predicated on the fact that Obama has already been told and you can tell by his attitude in his public appearances that he's dejected and mad and ticked off about it, betraying the fact that he's been told that the vote goes -- I'm hearing all this stuff, and more.
Hi, folks, boy. You know who this is, most recognizable voice in American media. That would be mine, Rush Limbaugh, here at the Limbaugh Institute for Advanced Conservative Studies.
All kinds of predictions about the Chief Justice, John Roberts, and how he might vote based on his desire for the court to be perceived in certain ways. For me, I have no clue. I don't know what to believe of any of these predictions. All I know is that a lot of people are sticking their necks out a long way with this public prediction that the mandate, at a minimum, is gone, and that the vote is going to be 5-4. I haven't spent a lot of time reading left-wing blogs, but there's a lot of depression out there, primarily for them because of the way the media is covering this. There was a big story over the weekend in the New York Times, for example, and the focus of that story was to sort of berate the smartest people in the history of the Oval Office for not taking care of the fact that they wrote a health care bill that might have an unconstitutional premise in it. They really did.
See, Clinton's people used to be the smartest, but now Obama's people, smartest people that have ever been there. But damn it if they didn't screw something up. They sat there and they put together a health care bill, and they didn't stop to think that the mandate might be unconstitutional. They didn't take care of it. So people are looking at that article and assuming Obama knows, he's been told in violation of court procedure, ethics, tradition, and all that. And then there are people who say, "No, no, Rush, Rush, let me tell you something, Obama's been told, and it's a big win, and he's just acting disappointed. He's just acting depressed to set everybody up for a crushing, shocking defeat when Obamacare is upheld on Thurs." I mean I'm hearing it all.
So I thought what I would do, it's not very often -- 'cause, you know, I am the world's foremost authority. I ask nobody what they think. I'm not big on interviews 'cause I don't care what anybody else thinks. That's why I don't have guests. Really. Why pussyfoot around that. People have asked me oftentimes, "Why don't you have guests on your show?" Well, there's a whole bunch of format programming reasons. One is, everybody else does. There's no way to be different. But, secondly, I'd rather find out myself and become the expert rather than turn it over to people plugging this and plugging that. You know, behave and conduct a program according to formula. And then I finally one day, in a shocking realization, I admitted to myself, I don't care what anybody else thinks. (laughing) It's not gonna change my mind.
It's work to sit here and ask people questions that I don't care about. I'm not gonna subject myself to that. That turns this into a job. But I'm gonna make a departure from that. I'm gonna ask you people as you call in today about whatever it is you want to talk about what you think the court's gonna do tomorrow. So if you're planning on calling the program at 800-282-2882, be prepared to give a short -- and you can say you have no idea. That's fine, too. You can say you don't know. You can say what you hope. No, I know what you hope. So don't give me that. I know what you're saying. I know what you're thinking, "What are you asking us for, Rush? You are the master at reading the tea leaves. You even have a tea company now. You don't even know how the SCOTUS is gonna rule, so how can any of us know?"
That's not the point. I want to know what your thinking is, what your prediction is. (interruption) Well, are you basing that on oral arguments? Ah, you gotta throw that out. Snerdley's sending me a note here that says that the wise Latina, Sonia Sotomayor, agreed during oral arguments the mandate was unconstitutional and was doing her best to guide these pathetic government lawyers who had no case to defend through their own oral argument. She's trying to help 'em out. So you're predicting 6-3 on the mandate? All right, well, let's talk, 6-3 on the mandate. Snerdley says 6-3 mandate gone. Whatever the vote is, 6-3, 5-4. Oh, and that's another thing. These predictions, a lot of people say, "Rush, on a momentous case like this, the chief justice is not going to permit 5-4. It's got to be at least 6-3 for the reputation of the court to avoid the charges of partisan --" Folks, that is so much bohunk. It's gonna vote the way it comes out.
Now, Snerdley says 6-3 'cause he thinks the wise Latina, Sonia Sotomayor, is going to join the wise majority and bump the mandate. If it's 5-4, 6-3, if the mandate goes, my friends, that's the primary funding mechanism for Obamacare. Why do you think the mandate is in there? The mandate, if you've forgotten, the requirement that we all buy a policy or pay a fine, it's the way on paper, the way this thing was the submitted to the Congressional Budget Office for scoring, it's the way it is paid for. The mandate is how the regime kept the so-called costs under a trillion dollars. That's the cost of the Iraq war; it had to come in cheaper than that. And is how Obama was allowed to say via scoring, talking about the CBO, that it was gonna reduce the deficit and it was gonna lower premiums and all this magic stuff.
The mandate is the brain and the heart of this organism. It's the primary funding mechanism. If the mandate goes, there's no way to pay for anything else in this. Not as written. And another question then arises. What are the Republicans gonna do in whatever scenario? Are the Republicans gonna sit around and do nothing if it's torpedoed? Or are they going to say, you know what, people like insurance for preexisting conditions. We better keep that in there. People like being able to keep their kids who are hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt from school on their policies. I know. This is the problem. I know a couple of conservative parents -- just as conservative as you or me -- well, maybe not as conservative as I am. They're a little kookier. Well, they're much kookier, 'cause I'm not kooky at all. But when it comes to the kids staying on the policy, to hell with conservatism, they want it. This is illustrative of one of the primary problems we've got.
When you get down to the bare bones personal of this, ideology goes out the window, big government goes out the window 'cause we're talking about "my children, my son, my daughter, who can't find work, and I need my child to stay on my policy." So all the big government stuff, all the limited government goes out the window with these people. If nothing else is kept, keeping the kid on the policy is a big deal. I'm just mentioning this, because what were the Republicans gonna do? Now, I gotta call from Speaker Boehner last Friday. I mean, he's calling a lot of people. Yeah, he called me first, Snerdley, yes, yes, but he's calling a lot of people, and he was telling us what the Republican plan is. And it was repeal, repeal, repeal, regardless what happens. The mandate's thrown out, repeal the rest of it. If the whole thing is upheld, repeal it. If the whole thing's deemed unconstitutional, repeal that. (laughing)
He made it clear that "repeal" and not "repeal and replace" but "repeal" was gonna be the focal point for the House Republicans. So a lot here on the line. And then you realize the election is in four-and-a-half months. So if the mandate's thrown out, if the whole thing's torpedoed -- and the mandate being thrown out, being the primary funding mechanism, there really isn't a whole lot of left. If that happens, then it becomes a campaign issue for the next four months and Obama is running around out there saying four white guys and an Uncle Tom, four rich white guys, Uncle Tom, just took your health care away. I was the first one to give it to you in a hundred years, they just took it away, they still have theirs. These four white guys and an Uncle Tom took your health care. That will become a campaign platform plank for them.
If it's upheld, then it becomes a campaign thing for the Republicans and for Romney. And then the election in November will have further ramifications on the future of this particular piece of legislation, Obamacare. So tomorrow is really just the first day of a big mess. But it's the kind of mess that we want. It's the kind of mess that we asked for. It's the kind of mess that has to happen if we are gonna get rid of this and try to bring some common-sense reforms. Now, see, Snerdley talked about oral arguments. And there are people on both sides, "Oral arguments? You can't read anything into that." Other people say, "Oh, yes, you can." I got court watchers out there who tell me oral arguments do indicate the way justices gonna vote. Well, Kennedy gave himself leeway to vote any way he wants. The early Kennedy in oral arguments, no doubt totally opposed. But then later on when somebody came up with a compromise idea where it was said that certain aspects could be left in, Kennedy was open to that, too.
So oral arguments where Justice Kennedy are concerned don't tell us anything. 'Cause he left himself wide latitude to maneuver and negotiate. Now, as far as the wise Latina, Sotomayor, she was pretty rigid. I mean she was in a way kind of mocking Virility, the solicitor general, the government lawyer who was pathetic, but he didn't have a case to defend. Nobody woulda looked good. Perry Mason woulda looked like an idiot trying to defend Obamacare before the Supreme Court.
END TRANSCRIPT
My prediction is that whatever portion(s) get struck down, dear dictator will push through by EO, ignoring the checks & balances yet again. I further predict that the nutless congress will do nothing in response.
It will be a very muddled decision as the courts criteria for decision over the last 75 years has been “the balancing of interests” rather than interpreting the constitutional powers granted and withheld by the document.
P A I N
American Patriot Chief Justice Roberts successfully persuades Kennedy to join him in the majority.
It will be 6-3 in favor of upholding the mandate. Roberts and Kennedy will join the liberals. It is pure, utter, fantasy to think any liberal will join the conservative wing. Roberts is a Washington insider, and he and Kennedy backed the expansion of federal power in AZ, as well as firing another shot at federalism. Scalia’s fiery dissent in writing and from the bench is a clear indication that the conservatives have been sold out in this term on the big decisions. When Bush appointed Roberts, he told us we had the right guy. Of course, he also looked into the eyes of Putin and saw Ben Franklin, rather than Joe Stalin. We lose, film at 11.
I work in a high-rise building with a window that opens and would love to hang a Gadsden flag from my window if Obamacare is killed tomorrow.
6-3 Against mandate
5-4 against the entire law.
Here’s hoping
With-holder fries...
0bamacare dies...
This is not my prediction, but some pundits disagree with you. Their thinking is the Roberts does not want to be seen in the same boat with Renquist and his 5-4 vote on the Bush/Gore election. They think he will want to try for a 6-3 vote. I would interpret this to indicate he may give up on some points to achieve that vote. Well, time will tell.
Yo, Rocky.
That is BS.
Now, Snerdley says 6-3 ‘cause he thinks the wise Latina, Sonia Sotomayor, is going to join the wise majority”
no way in hell is Sotomayor going to vote against obama.
No way whatsoever.
Beyond that I predict nothing.
(Actually, I predict this: Justice Kennedy is unpredictable...and I predict that his vote, ahem, matters a lot).
NO severability...ALL MUST be thrown out!...
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/03/va-ag-ken-cuccinelli-dems-removed-severability-clause-so-entire-obamacare-law-must-be-thrown-out-video/
I predict that SCOTUS will issue their ruling on Thursday.
I predict that SCOTUS will issue their ruling on Thursday.
My prediction is the Supreme Court will strike down all the odd number pages of the law, but uphold all the even numbered pages. Leaving both sides scratching their heads and wondering if it was a victory or a defeat.
I agree.. that’ll be the best case scenario. The SCOTUS will aim for the “appearance of a piece of pie for everyone” result.
Because I suspect Nancy Pelosi had been tipped off, my prediction is a 6-3 decision to uphold both the mandate and the law. 6-3, vs. 5-4 because of Roberts’ stated intent to avoid a near-split decision.
We’re not as free a people as we think we are.
They will uphold everything. I hope I’m wrong. I want this socialism struck down and 99% of the government , like the EPA,IRS, HHS, OSHA, HUD, dept of education, government schools etc. , we don’t need any of it, nor 99% of current laws, which are 100,000’s of pages(millions of pages of regulations): these are choking America.
This country is going downhill fast.
Is anyone else nervous as hell? I mean, the way I see it we live or die as a republic, starting with this decision.
It is that serious.
None of the communists on the bench will vote against it, which leaves the swing votes in the hands of Kennedy and Roberts... and I wouldn’t bet my life that they will strike it down.
I can’t make a prediction, but I hope it dies noisily and with great pain. If it is killed I hope that Obamao tries to ram it through with a series of EOs, and I hope that the entire nation collectively tells him to FOAD... at about the time articles of impeachment are drafted.
I predict the individual mandate is struck down, but the rest of the law survives.
This morning intrade had it at 71% that the individual mandate would be struck down. It is now at 74% Seems pretty obvious to me the closer we get, the higher it spikes. Therefore, I say the individual mandate is struck down. I don’t believe they will strike down the entire bill.
Have there been any girls fainting at the Baraqqi campaign rallies this season?
9-0, all you base are belong to us............
huh?
That is not a prediction, that is a fact
My prediction... this is soooo blantantly unconstitutional that only the old senile bag votes to uphold.... 8 to 1 to repeal in it’s entirety...
I believe that SCOTUS is going to strike it down entirely. I also believe that Zero has known this since one of his two ugly lesbian appointees tipped him off to the initial vote. He is going off the deep end with his illegal alien amnesty, AZ dereliction of duty, and his gay parade.
I predict my healthcare costs will increase by a double digit percentage, but my pay won’t.
It will be struck down........
I'm praying that SCOTUS will be granted wisdom and courage.
Never pay any attention to what the pundits say. You are correct though that time will tell
there is NO severability and the VOTE was taken weeks ago. Therefore all that needed to be leaked was a yes or no. Here is the verdict written on the dip’s face....
http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/the-most-dour-man-eats-sundae-photos-ever
Since there isn't a severability clause, the whole law will be struck down 6-3.
5.56mm
Members of Congress have nothing to lose. They get to keep their top notch healthcare plans while the rest of us have to suffer. It is disgraceful that this bill was ever passed. If this is allowed to stand it will affect the lives of over 250 million people. I especially hope it adversely affects obama’s cheerleaders in the media. If obamacare goes down I hope every major news organization drops healthcare and forces them to scramble onto the “exchange”.
I believe that SCOTUS is going to strike it down entirely. I also believe that Zero has known this since one of his two ugly lesbian appointees tipped him off to the initial vote. He is going off the deep end with his illegal alien amnesty, AZ dereliction of duty, and his gay parade.
I am quite sure the public mandate which forces folks to buy insurance can be enacted via EO.
1) Obamacare gets declared unconstitutional tomorrow morning.
2) Eric Holder is found in contempt of congress tomorrow. Is it too much to ask “Who’s idea was it and who authorized the release of 2,000 automatic weapons into Mexico (Without Mexico’s knowledge) which has resulted in the murder of 300 people, roughly the amount of people that have been killed in Afghanistan in the last year? Eric, can you please just tell us who decided to do this?
3) Next week or the week after, Sheriff Joe in Arizona will have a news conference where he provides proof of what a fraud our president is and the evidence will be so compelling that the mainstream media will no longer be able to ignore it. Who are you going to believe, Joe or BHO?
4) Barack Obama will not lose the election because he won’t be the democrat candidate. Enough of his lies will catch up to him soon and he will drop out of the race to “Spend more time with his family”.
5) As soon as it becomes apparent that BHO will not be re-elected the economy will turn around dramatically and the stock market will take off.
6) Republicans will win the presidency and win the Senate and Keep control of the House. They will do an awesome job like they did in 1994 and do the job they said they would do for a few years and then get lazy and greedy again and we will have to vote their asses out.
7) The Tea Party will replace the republican party and soon become lazy and we will have to vote their asses out.
8) The democrats will be playing the race card and class warfare while all of this is going on but nobody will listen anymore.
9) Not really a betting man but $$$???
The mandate gets wiped out 9-0. Precedent will be Reynolds Vs United States 1914. Coerced contracts are peonage and violate the 13th Amendment.
Since there’s no “severabilty clause”, it either falls or stands, in toto.
Sadly, I think it’ll be upheld 5-4, with Roberts again jumping ship on America.
First, the mandate is unconstitutional and thus will be thrown out.
Second, the non-severability clause will require the balance to be thrown out.
Finally, the convoluted nature of the entire bill and its ramblings between subjects will require the Supreme Court to render it null and void.
Finally, the nervous nellies on this forum who are predecting, nay, praying for gloom and doom, will whine as loudly as the RATS.
Sorry, that should read “cannot be enacted via EO”
10) Cha cha cha dance will make a comeback.
Adios Individual mandate 5-4
Au Revoir entire law on question of severalty 6-3
Adios Individual mandate 5-4
Au Revoir entire law on question of severalty 6-3
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