Skip to comments.Could New Hampshire decide the election?
Posted on 06/30/2012 4:46:27 PM PDT by Vigilanteman
The New York Times has updated their electoral map, moving Wisconsin and Pennsylvania into the toss-up category.
Unlike the Huffington Post which shows Obama has 254 electoral votes locked down, the Times shows him with just 185 plus 32 leaning for a total of 217. He needs 53 among the toss-up states to put him over 270, still less than Romney, who needs 64 with solid states and leaners included.
I've therefore listed the 9 states and electoral votes of each in the toss-up category in order of likelihood to vote GOP:
(Excerpt) Read more at elections.nytimes.com ...
If you add from the bottom up for Obama or the top down for Romney, the one state they both need is New Hampshire to cross the 270 electoral vote finish line. Obama doesn't need a single state above it. Romney doesn't need a single state below it.
Of course, if the election is a blow-out either way, nobody will need New Hampshire either way. But if it is as razor-thin as some expect, New Hampshire's four electoral votes is the difference between victory and defeat.
Well, how does NH look?
The ‘RATS have already signed up “thousands” of “lawyers” to fight against the voters. I expect Roberts and Barry’s “Supreme Court” to decide this one. Ain’t lookin’ good for our side.
Solid work, Vigilanteman.
Michigan should be in the list.
How about NC, they went Obama last time, should go back to the GOP.
You have made your point.
soetoro makes donor calls from air force one [desperate!]...
It is not going to be even close.
Florida/Ohio will go GOP before Virginia. Huge influx of New Englanders in Northern VA is changing the state. It went easily for Obama in 08 and I’d only imagine the problem has gotten worse since then.
You won't see that with a lot of the liberal media. That, notwithstanding, changes in events from now until November could put some of the leaners into play like Michigan or even Minnesota.
What the Times analysts are saying is that if the election were held tomorrow, the outcome would be determined in these nine states. I've taken their fairly solid work just one step further and ranked the nine states.
Scary to think that it could all come down to New Hampshire, isn't it?
“Florida/Ohio will go GOP before Virginia.”
I agree. The VP pick should be Bob McDonnell.
We just got Voter ID up here, and a student ID cannot be used. Cutting out the college students and voters busing in from MA should tip it to Romney.
In the end, however, I weighted Virginia higher based less on historical voting history in presidential elections, but the solid GOP win in the last governor's race, the popularity of the GOP governor in Virginia as compared to his counterparts in Ohio and Florida and how that translates into better organization and votes.
Yours is really the type of informed comment which I welcome on this thread versus the usual cut and paste garbage which gives the impression that the whiners and bed wetters outnumber the thinkers and analyzers.
He has become a total bore on FR
Broken record - Stand to the side, Di, while the adults VOTE obama out of office
I take it that you are in New Hampshire, correct? If so, I would welcome any details which you could add, including recent state polling data.
Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level then beat you with experience.
Agreed. McDonnell is very conservative and from what may be the most important state, but he’s not a bombshell which Romney is trying to avoid (he doesn’t want the VP to overshadow him, LOL).
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