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Could New Hampshire decide the election?
New York Times ^ | 30 June 2012 | Election staff analysis

Posted on 06/30/2012 4:46:27 PM PDT by Vigilanteman

The New York Times has updated their electoral map, moving Wisconsin and Pennsylvania into the toss-up category.

Unlike the Huffington Post which shows Obama has 254 electoral votes locked down, the Times shows him with just 185 plus 32 leaning for a total of 217. He needs 53 among the toss-up states to put him over 270, still less than Romney, who needs 64 with solid states and leaners included.

I've therefore listed the 9 states and electoral votes of each in the toss-up category in order of likelihood to vote GOP:

  1. Virginia - 13
  2. Florida - 29
  3. Ohio - 18
  4. New Hampshire - 4
  5. Iowa - 6
  6. Nevada - 6
  7. Colorado - 9
  8. Pennsylvania - 20
  9. Wisconsin - 10

(Excerpt) Read more at elections.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Government; Politics/Elections; US: New Hampshire
KEYWORDS: 2012; election; obama; romney
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Feel free to debate the order of the 9 toss-ups, but I consider it pretty solid based on statewide polls and demographic changes, especially a surge in the illegal alien friendly Hispanic demographic in Colorado and Nevada since 2008.

If you add from the bottom up for Obama or the top down for Romney, the one state they both need is New Hampshire to cross the 270 electoral vote finish line. Obama doesn't need a single state above it. Romney doesn't need a single state below it.

Of course, if the election is a blow-out either way, nobody will need New Hampshire either way. But if it is as razor-thin as some expect, New Hampshire's four electoral votes is the difference between victory and defeat.

1 posted on 06/30/2012 4:46:34 PM PDT by Vigilanteman
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To: Vigilanteman
THIS is what will control the election:



2 posted on 06/30/2012 4:49:55 PM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: Vigilanteman

Well, how does NH look?


3 posted on 06/30/2012 4:52:24 PM PDT by bill1952 (Choice is an illusion created between those with power - and those without)
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To: Vigilanteman

The ‘RATS have already signed up “thousands” of “lawyers” to fight against the voters. I expect Roberts and Barry’s “Supreme Court” to decide this one. Ain’t lookin’ good for our side.


4 posted on 06/30/2012 4:52:59 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Dude! Where's my Constitution?!)
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To: Vigilanteman

Solid work, Vigilanteman.

Thanks.


5 posted on 06/30/2012 4:54:50 PM PDT by SharpRightTurn ( White, black, and red all over--America's affirmative action, metrosexual president.)
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To: Vigilanteman

Michigan should be in the list.


6 posted on 06/30/2012 4:55:47 PM PDT by BarnacleCenturion
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To: Vigilanteman

How about NC, they went Obama last time, should go back to the GOP.


7 posted on 06/30/2012 4:56:37 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Diogenesis
I am sure you will be very happy if Obama is reelected.

You have made your point.

8 posted on 06/30/2012 4:57:24 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Vigilanteman

soetoro makes donor calls from air force one [desperate!]...
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/06/30/exclusive-president-obama-asks-campaign-donors-to-send-him-more-money.html


9 posted on 06/30/2012 4:57:47 PM PDT by biggredd1
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To: Vigilanteman

It is not going to be even close.


10 posted on 06/30/2012 5:00:23 PM PDT by mountainlion (I am voting for Sarah after getting screwed again by the DC Thugs.)
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To: Vigilanteman

Florida/Ohio will go GOP before Virginia. Huge influx of New Englanders in Northern VA is changing the state. It went easily for Obama in 08 and I’d only imagine the problem has gotten worse since then.


11 posted on 06/30/2012 5:00:37 PM PDT by PAConservative1
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To: SharpRightTurn
You're welcome. I have to give begrudging credit to the New York Times in at least being realistic with their analysis of the electoral map.

You won't see that with a lot of the liberal media. That, notwithstanding, changes in events from now until November could put some of the leaners into play like Michigan or even Minnesota.

What the Times analysts are saying is that if the election were held tomorrow, the outcome would be determined in these nine states. I've taken their fairly solid work just one step further and ranked the nine states.

Scary to think that it could all come down to New Hampshire, isn't it?

12 posted on 06/30/2012 5:03:49 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: PAConservative1

“Florida/Ohio will go GOP before Virginia.”

I agree. The VP pick should be Bob McDonnell.


13 posted on 06/30/2012 5:06:17 PM PDT by BarnacleCenturion
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To: Vigilanteman

We just got Voter ID up here, and a student ID cannot be used. Cutting out the college students and voters busing in from MA should tip it to Romney.


14 posted on 06/30/2012 5:07:23 PM PDT by MAexile (Bats left, votes right)
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To: fortheDeclaration; Al B.; SolidWood; Leisler; greyfoxx39; Tennessee Nana; EternalVigilance; ...
Apparently not.


15 posted on 06/30/2012 5:12:04 PM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: PAConservative1
To your credit, I seriously considered ranking Virginia third, after Florida and Ohio. As you correctly pointed out, Obama had a bigger margin of victory in Virginia (6.3%) than either Florida (2.8%) or Ohio (4.6%).

In the end, however, I weighted Virginia higher based less on historical voting history in presidential elections, but the solid GOP win in the last governor's race, the popularity of the GOP governor in Virginia as compared to his counterparts in Ohio and Florida and how that translates into better organization and votes.

Yours is really the type of informed comment which I welcome on this thread versus the usual cut and paste garbage which gives the impression that the whiners and bed wetters outnumber the thinkers and analyzers.

16 posted on 06/30/2012 5:18:01 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Diogenesis; fortheDeclaration

He has become a total bore on FR

Broken record - Stand to the side, Di, while the adults VOTE obama out of office


17 posted on 06/30/2012 5:21:53 PM PDT by bill1952 (Choice is an illusion created between those with power - and those without)
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To: MAexile

I take it that you are in New Hampshire, correct? If so, I would welcome any details which you could add, including recent state polling data.


18 posted on 06/30/2012 5:21:53 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: fortheDeclaration

Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level then beat you with experience.


19 posted on 06/30/2012 5:23:25 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: BarnacleCenturion

Agreed. McDonnell is very conservative and from what may be the most important state, but he’s not a bombshell which Romney is trying to avoid (he doesn’t want the VP to overshadow him, LOL).


20 posted on 06/30/2012 5:27:54 PM PDT by PAConservative1
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To: bill1952
You did not get the message, RomneyBOT.

Mr. ROMNEYCARE was put there TO LOSE.

BEHOLD YOUR MASTER IMPOSING OBAMACARE AND RomneyDEATHPANELS.


21 posted on 06/30/2012 5:28:28 PM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: Vigilanteman

Thanks.

I think Romney has Florida in the bag. If Obama could only win it by <3% in a great year like 2008, I feel like there’s no way he could have a realistic shot now. Plus, Obamacare is toxic there. Ohio is more sketchy, but it should almost surely go to Romney if the election is close. Like your analysis, I think NH and VA are the lynchpins.


22 posted on 06/30/2012 5:29:54 PM PDT by PAConservative1
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To: Diogenesis

It’s OK. Willard’s gonna save the Republic. Just like John Roberts.


23 posted on 06/30/2012 5:32:24 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (If you like lying Socialist dirtbags, you'll love Slick Willard)
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To: bill1952

Nh over rode the Gov veto of voter ID last week.


24 posted on 06/30/2012 5:33:42 PM PDT by UB355 (Slower traffic keep right)
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To: fortheDeclaration
The Times moved North Carolina into the GOP leaning camp several months ago. Obama won it by less than 0.4% in 2008.

The Huffington Post still has it in the toss-up category, JFYI.

Disclosure: I was an early supporter of Rick Santorum and a reluctant Romney voter only because I live in a toss-up state. My interest in this thread is not in promoting his candidacy, but in using my professional and numerical analytical skills to show just how far we have declined as a country.

As I've said before, if this country had the degree of sanity left now which we did a generation ago, Obama would be a laughing stock on the order of Lyndon LaRouche, Romney would be the Democrat nominee and a solid conservative would be the GOP nominee. That not being the case, I will still vote for a JFK style Democrat any time over a naked Marxist.

25 posted on 06/30/2012 5:33:42 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

I have no illusions that Romney will lead us to prosperity. But I’d rather have a 1% chance of this country surviving the next 4 years than a 0% chance.


26 posted on 06/30/2012 5:37:58 PM PDT by PAConservative1
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To: Vigilanteman
We're the home state of Betty and Barney Hill, first people to publicly claim abduction by aliens.

You don't want us deciding anything.

27 posted on 06/30/2012 5:40:24 PM PDT by Aglooka ("I was out numbered 5-to-1, I got 4.")
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To: Aglooka
LOL! You've got that right.

But now we have a country which has been abducted by aliens.

So we may very well be stuck with New Hampshire deciding. Scary thought, indeed!

28 posted on 06/30/2012 5:47:19 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Vigilanteman
In 2000 it could be argued that NH (4 Electoral votes) *did* decide the election.In 2010 NH booted out both their Congresscritters (both of them far left moonbats) and elected a Republican to the Senate.Just a few days ago the NH legislature overrode the Rat Governor's veto of a voter ID law.Seems to me that NH is Romney's to lose.
29 posted on 06/30/2012 5:59:31 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Bill Ayers Was *Not* "Just Some Guy In The Neighborhood")
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To: Vigilanteman

Even with a milk dud like Romney.....The Marxist Muslim America Hating Faggot illegal alien will be lucky to take his ‘home’ state of Hawaii.

This is going to be a landslide for Romney.


30 posted on 06/30/2012 5:59:50 PM PDT by Electric Graffiti (Crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of their Moonbats)
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To: Gay State Conservative
If NH is important, Mr. RomneyCARE should pull out ...NOW!!!!

Bad Gov. Romney, in another of his “hit and runs”
managed to even raise taxes on New Hampshire residents
while Gov. of Massachusetts.
Believe it or not.


31 posted on 06/30/2012 6:03:33 PM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: Vigilanteman

No.


32 posted on 06/30/2012 6:14:04 PM PDT by ThePatriotsFlag (Boiling tea makes it stronger. I'm a Tea Party Patriot...and I AM BOILING!!!)
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To: Electric Graffiti
This is going to be a landslide for Romney.

It's complacency like that that can get Osama Obama four more years in which to twist the knife that he's already stuck in this nation's back.

This one's gonna be close...."2000 close"!

33 posted on 06/30/2012 6:14:04 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Bill Ayers Was *Not* "Just Some Guy In The Neighborhood")
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To: Diogenesis

its YOU who aren’t “getting the message!”

Your cut & paste childishness is not getting respect here on FR - We have a JOB to do, not be bothered with your 12 year old ranting against the only person in the country, who, at this time, can beat obama.

I couldn’t care less about your silly images anymore because they are not the POINT.

The point - one that you simply cannot understand - is that Obama must go.
Stop boring us - you have nothing pertinent or new to bring to the fight to kick obama out, just your opinions of Mitt

When you can bring forth a clear alternative - and you can’t - and a better way to beat obama, in this election, then post it.
Until then just know that your posts have descended into monotony. Boring.
The adult voters will ignore you until then.


34 posted on 06/30/2012 6:17:55 PM PDT by bill1952 (Choice is an illusion created between those with power - and those without)
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To: Diogenesis

35 posted on 06/30/2012 6:20:36 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Bill Ayers Was *Not* "Just Some Guy In The Neighborhood")
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To: Gay State Conservative

36 posted on 06/30/2012 6:31:51 PM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: Vigilanteman

Unfortunately, I think you can completely remove PA from the list; it’s full of liberals.


37 posted on 06/30/2012 6:51:40 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Past is prologue: The American people again let us down in this election cycle.)
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To: Vigilanteman

“If you add from the bottom up for Obama or the top down for Romney, the one state they both need is New Hampshire to cross the 270 electoral vote finish line. Obama doesn’t need a single state above it. Romney doesn’t need a single state below it.”

Nice work, but I predicted as much months ago:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2872829/posts?page=50#50

New Hampshire may indeed play a pivotal role this time around, as may Nebraska and/or Maine. The reason for the latter is because both NE and ME are “split states”, that do not assign electors by “winner take all”. I’m guessing that Obama will win ME in its entirety, but that NE may “split”, giving Obama 1 electoral vote and giving Romney the rest. If so, it could throw the election into the House. Or perhaps it will be ME that splits, giving Romney one or two votes extra...

One thing of which I’m absolutely certain: this is NOT going to be “a landslide” for Romney. He will either win with a small but respectable margin, or, it will be as squeaky a squeaker as was 2000.

Prediction:
The era of “landslides”, at least conservative ones, is over for a while. For the next couple of decades, the trend will be towards close, bitter contests. In order to have “landslides”, you need a large enough cohort of voters willing to join together to create one. The only demographic group capable of producing such numbers are the Euro-Americans, and they have been shrinking as an overall percentage of the population for some time now. Couple this with the reality that the Euro-Americans are bitterly divided amongst themselves politically, and also that their “middle” is shrinking as the left and right become more polarized. This makes it challenging for Republicans to persuade a sufficient number of “the white middle” to come to their side to achieve a “landslide win”. It’s all they can do just to win, period.

It’s a matter of changing demographics, as much as anything else.

The demographic “America” that gave landslide victories to Ronald Reagan simply doesn’t exist any more. It won’t be coming back.

I’d enjoy being proven wrong come November, but that’s the way I see it….


38 posted on 06/30/2012 6:59:31 PM PDT by Road Glide
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To: Vigilanteman

There is also a remote chance of a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College. In which case, the likely Republican congress would pick the winner (there might even be a two party split between the President and Vice-president, something not seen since the 19th century).


39 posted on 06/30/2012 7:51:24 PM PDT by JerseyanExile
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To: Vigilanteman
Huffington is on drugs!

Last I saw they had Obama at 270 electorial votes.

I don't think he will get 170.

40 posted on 06/30/2012 8:29:25 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: JerseyanExile

I’m from New Hampshire. I voted for Ron Paul in the primary. A lot of people did. I voted for Perot twice. A lot of people did. We know Romney well and I think he will take New Hampshire. Romney is not like Bush 41, Dole, or McCain. He is a man applying for a job. Once we elect him, Romney will accept and act on his mandate.

There are two reasons I vote for a candidate: 1) I like what he says, and 2) I believe he will do what he said. I like what Romney is saying and believe he will execute once elected. For this reason, he gets my vote. For this reason, he wins New Hampshire.


41 posted on 06/30/2012 8:31:42 PM PDT by wizwor
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To: nutmeg

Bookmark


42 posted on 06/30/2012 9:36:25 PM PDT by nutmeg (I'm with Sarah Palin: Anybody But Obama 2012)
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To: FlingWingFlyer
Ain’t lookin’ good for our side.

What side would that BE?


Exodus 32:26-29

26 then Moses stood in the gate of the camp and said, “Who is on the Lord's side? Come to me.”

And all the sons of Levi gathered around him.

27 And he said to them, “Thus says the Lord God of Israel, ‘Put your sword on your side each of you, and go to and fro from gate to gate throughout the camp, and each of you kill his brother and his companion and his neighbor.’”

28 And the sons of Levi did according to the word of Moses. And that day about three thousand men of the people fell.

29 And Moses said, “Today you have been ordained for the service of the Lord, each one at the cost of his son and of his brother, so that he might bestow a blessing upon you this day.”

43 posted on 07/01/2012 3:40:10 AM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going)
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To: fortheDeclaration
I am sure you will be very happy if Obama is reelected.

MAny in this thread would be very happy if a Deceived MORMON or a Deceiving one is elected.

44 posted on 07/01/2012 3:41:55 AM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going)
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To: Vigilanteman
Scary to think that it could all come down to New Hampshire, isn't it?

Nah...

Scary to think we will p;ossibly have the 'choice' between a godless Marxist and a false god worshipping MORMON from which to choose.

But hey; what should we expect??




Are you still killing your unborn?

-- GOD


 

45 posted on 07/01/2012 3:44:41 AM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going)
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To: bill1952
He has become a total bore on FR

Only to MORMONs...

Kinda like ME!

46 posted on 07/01/2012 3:46:20 AM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going)
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To: Vigilanteman
Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level then beat you with experience.

The

DOCTRINE AND COVENANTS

OF THE CHURCH OF JESUS CHRIST OF LATTER-DAY SAINTS

SECTION 71

Revelation given to Joseph Smith the Prophet and Sidney Rigdon, at Hiram, Ohio, December 1, 1831. HC 1: 238–239. The Prophet had continued to translate the Bible with Sidney Rigdon as his scribe until this revelation was received, at which time it was temporarily laid aside so as to enable them to fulfill the instruction given herein. The brethren were to go forth to preach in order to allay the unfriendly feelings that had developed against the Church as a result of the publication of some newspaper articles by Ezra Booth, who had apostatized.

1–4, Joseph Smith and Sidney Rigdon are sent forth to proclaim the gospel; 5–11, Enemies of the saints shall be confounded.

1 Behold, thus saith the Lord unto you my servants Joseph Smith, Jun., and Sidney Rigdon, that the time has verily come that it is necessary and expedient in me that you should open your mouths in proclaiming my gospel, the things of the kingdom, expounding the mysteries thereof out of the scriptures, according to that portion of Spirit and power which shall be given unto you, even as I will.

2 Verily I say unto you, proclaim unto the world in the regions round about, and in the church also, for the space of a season, even until it shall be made known unto you.

3 Verily this is a mission for a season, which I give unto you.

4 Wherefore, labor ye in my vineyard. Call upon the inhabitants of the earth, and bear record, and prepare the way for the commandments and revelations which are to come.

5 Now, behold this is wisdom; whoso readeth, let him understand and receive also;

6 For unto him that receiveth it shall be given more abundantly, even power.

7 Wherefore, confound your enemies; call upon them to meet you both in public and in private; and inasmuch as ye are faithful their shame shall be made manifest.

8 Wherefore, let them bring forth their strong reasons against the Lord.

9 Verily, thus saith the Lord unto you—there is no weapon that is formed against you shall prosper;

10 And if any man lift his voice against you he shall be confounded in mine own due time.

11 Wherefore, keep my commandments; they are true and faithful. Even so. Amen.

 

47 posted on 07/01/2012 3:47:39 AM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going)
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To: PAConservative1
But I’d rather have a 1% chance of this country surviving the next 4 years than a 0% chance.

Then AMERICA had better repent; as we do NOT have political problems; but SPIRITUAL ones in this country.

48 posted on 07/01/2012 3:49:35 AM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going)
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To: Vigilanteman
But now we have a country which has been abducted by overrun with illegal aliens.
49 posted on 07/01/2012 3:50:55 AM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going)
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To: bill1952
We have a JOB to do, not be bothered with your 12 year old ranting against the only person in the country, who, at this time, can beat obama.

I know you really want to believe this; but Romney will be the WORST person to try to beat Obama (if the Dems decide to keepim at the convention).


Mitt has just TOO many albatrosses to swim with!!


Silly Image ALERT!



50 posted on 07/01/2012 3:55:33 AM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going)
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