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CNN poll of battleground states: Romney 51, Obama 43
Hotair ^ | 07/02/2012 | AllahPundit

Posted on 07/02/2012 2:51:14 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

A rare case in which a news outlet actually tries to undermine its own poll by pointing out problems in its methodology. Is that because it's terrible for the Unicorn Prince or because, to be fair, it's hard to draw any conclusions from numbers these vague?

I'm not putting any stock in it but let's blog it anyway. After last week's SCOTUS groin-punch, we need something to be happy about.

About a third of all Americans live in states that are not considered safe Republican or safe Democratic strongholds, including toss-ups states (like Florida and Ohio) as well as states that lean toward one presidential candidate but could ultimately wind up voting for his rival. In those 15 "battleground states,' the poll indicates that Romney currently has a 51%-43% advantage over the president among registered voters, if the election were held today.

"Note carefully that this does not mean that Romney will win each of those states by eight points, or that he will win all 15 of those states," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "That's both good news and bad news for Romney. The good news: he has residual strength in states that the two campaigns are fighting over. The bad news: Romney is also spending resources defending states that should be part of the GOP coalition, rather than taking the battle to Obama's home turf."

The survey indicates that Romney clearly has a big advantage in some of those 15 states, but the data does not indicate which states he is currently winning or how big that advantage may actually be. Neither candidate needs to win all 15 of those states in order to win the general election, so the aggregate results from all 15 states do not forecast an Obama loss or a Romney victory.

Note to Holland: If Romney’s lead across swing states is approaching double digits then I’m pretty sure he’s not sweating over Obama’s “home turf,” especially since polls of registered voters tend to underestimate actual Republican strength on election day. So what’s driving the alleged big Romney wave? Must be a backlash to the Supreme Court ruling, no? No, actually: O still leads Romney by three overall (within the margin of error), same as he did last month. The only difference detected by CNN is a sudden spike in Democratic enthusiasm buoyed by their big Court win. The public’s short attention span will solve that problem in due time.

Gallup’s not seeing any “John Roberts bounce” for The One either. But:

The O-Care decision was announced between those two spikes at the far right of the graph so O’s recent surge obviously wasn’t due to the Court ruling. Maybe it was driven by a surge of Democratic and Latino enthusiasm after he announced his new DREAM policy? In that case, you’d expect to see his job approval rise too but there’s only been a slight bump lately and he’s actually underwater at the moment. Seems like his recent lead over Mitt might be more of an anti-Romney than a pro-Obama thing, although why that would be, I can’t imagine. Let’s chalk it up to statistical noise, hm? Even if it is his biggest lead in two months.

Exit question: How do you reconcile Romney’s eight-point swing state lead here with Obama’s eight-point swing state lead in NBC’s poll last week? Hint: Small sample sizes!


TOPICS: Breaking News; Culture/Society; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; cnn; iwontvoteforromney; obama; poll; romney
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1 posted on 07/02/2012 2:51:25 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
I can't comprehend 0bama leaving the White house without a Mount Carmel moment forcing him out.
2 posted on 07/02/2012 2:58:53 PM PDT by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
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To: SeekAndFind

When a poll doesn’t provide a link to view the internals, I skip right over it.


3 posted on 07/02/2012 3:05:40 PM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: EGPWS
If Obama leaves, the White House' contents will be ripped off like never seen before. Linclon's bed will be reduced to bed spings. Valuable portraits will be stolen and sold on the black market (racist pun not intended).

More likely, 0bama will declare Martial Law and cancel the election via executive order. He's already set precedence for unlawfully using executive orders. If he can wage war on Libya without approval from Congress or unilaterally overturn federal immigration laws, he can do anything. He's a 'one man' show. I think that's called 'Dictator'.

4 posted on 07/02/2012 3:09:02 PM PDT by GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
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To: SeekAndFind

Your post also shows the Gallup daily tracking poll with Obama up by 5%. Rasmussen has Romney up by 2%. So there is a lot of variability lately. However, I don’t buy that Romney is up 8% in swing states.

Interesting that Gallup has Obama at 46/47 approve-disapprove but polling at 48%.


5 posted on 07/02/2012 3:12:05 PM PDT by Norman Bates
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To: SeekAndFind

It is an understatement to say these polls and comments in the article about the polls, make no sense.

Obama leads but is behind in “swing states” by 15 points??


6 posted on 07/02/2012 3:12:50 PM PDT by Williams (No Obama)
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To: SeekAndFind

CNN swing states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri are not normally polled as swing states (solid red). This may up Romney’s numbers.

However, polling PA, and NM do inflate Obama’s numbers too - as Romney has no chance.

The only states that really matter are FL, VA, and OH.


7 posted on 07/02/2012 3:18:19 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else (Maybe Tim Thomas))
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To: SeekAndFind

Rupert Murdoch just demanded that Romney fire his current team and hire a new, aggressive one if he wants to win. Sitting on an imaginary lead fails.


8 posted on 07/02/2012 3:18:19 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Past is prologue: The American people again let us down in this election cycle.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Team Obama is not beyond pulling Reichstag including a stirring speech afterwards.


9 posted on 07/02/2012 3:18:19 PM PDT by Leep (Enemy of the StatistI)
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To: Norman Bates

Sure, many Obama voters really may not want to vote for him, but he is their party nominee to be.


10 posted on 07/02/2012 3:19:58 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Past is prologue: The American people again let us down in this election cycle.)
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To: GeorgeWashingtonsGhost

You may not understand the depth of support Obama has even if it is under 48 percent. Many truly believe in such nonsense.


11 posted on 07/02/2012 3:21:28 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Past is prologue: The American people again let us down in this election cycle.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Otherwise,obama the underdog?
Next poll obama will advance 4-6%.
In reality he will have not moved at all.

Kind of the same trick they play with the unemployment numbers.


12 posted on 07/02/2012 3:28:04 PM PDT by Leep (Enemy of the StatistI)
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Thanks SeekAndFind.
13 posted on 07/02/2012 3:30:37 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
0bama will declare Martial Law and cancel the election via executive order.

And the media would defend it and accuse those who disagree of racism.

There is nothing, no act or scandal, that Obama could not get away with.

He could be caught with BOTH the proverbial dead girl and live boy, and still the media would cover it up for him.

14 posted on 07/02/2012 3:36:16 PM PDT by Retired Greyhound (.)
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To: Retired Greyhound

and the supremes will uphold his action 5-4


15 posted on 07/02/2012 3:37:44 PM PDT by morphing libertarian
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To: SunkenCiv
If the economy stays in the tank (likely) and Romney doesn’t implode (50/50 proposition, today his Advisor didn't help)

I see Bambi only winning 15 States.

Hawaii, California, Wash, Ore, NM, Vermont, Conn. NY, NJ, Maryland, MI, IL, Wi, ME, Del.

My criteria, any State Bambi won with 55% or less, he will lose in 2012.

16 posted on 07/02/2012 3:39:39 PM PDT by DAC21
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To: EGPWS
I can't comprehend 0bama leaving the White house without a Mount Carmel moment forcing him out.

He can try and he won't like the outcome.

17 posted on 07/02/2012 3:40:24 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: nhwingut

RE: The only states that really matter are FL, VA, and OH.

Romney MUST win all of these 3 otherwise he won’t win. Just saying.


18 posted on 07/02/2012 3:55:48 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: DAC21

“I see Bambi only winning 15 States.

Hawaii, California, Wash, Ore, NM, Vermont, Conn. NY, NJ, Maryland, MI, IL, Wi, ME, Del.”

Don’t forget to toss Minnesota (10 EV’s) in there too.

We’re electorally stupid. We actually voted for Walter Mondale, Jesse Ventura AND Al Franken!

We got the “stuck on stupid” thing down pat.


19 posted on 07/02/2012 3:57:24 PM PDT by MplsSteve (General Mills is pro-gay marriage! Boycott their products!)
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To: Red Steel
The problem conservatives have is truth telling.Today on the FIVE Beckel made his usual fool of himself. He said Obamacare was not a tax and words don't mean anything. I love that liberal argument. Defendants in criminal cases can now argue I was charged with murder but isn't that the same as manslaughter somebody dies. The view whatever it takes always persists in the liberal mind. The conservative view process and principle matter. The liberal would say the CNN poll is right and who cares about eternals if Obama is up. Here we are questioning the poll. I like the side that would question the poll because it is not a do what it takes mentality because it feels good it is a crowd that says the most important thing is to get it right based on facts.
20 posted on 07/02/2012 3:58:09 PM PDT by pasr (You are crazy,,,,,,,,,,)
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To: Red Steel
The problem conservatives have is truth telling.Today on the FIVE Beckel made his usual fool of himself. He said Obamacare was not a tax and words don't mean anything. I love that liberal argument. Defendants in criminal cases can now argue I was charged with murder but isn't that the same as manslaughter somebody dies. The view whatever it takes always persists in the liberal mind. The conservative view process and principle matter. The liberal would say the CNN poll is right and who cares about eternals if Obama is up. Here we are questioning the poll. I like the side that would question the poll because it is not a do what it takes mentality because it feels good it is a crowd that says the most important thing is to get it right based on facts.
21 posted on 07/02/2012 3:58:26 PM PDT by pasr (You are crazy,,,,,,,,,,)
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To: Red Steel
The problem conservatives have is truth telling.Today on the FIVE Beckel made his usual fool of himself. He said Obamacare was not a tax and words don't mean anything. I love that liberal argument. Defendants in criminal cases can now argue I was charged with murder but isn't that the same as manslaughter somebody dies. The view whatever it takes always persists in the liberal mind. The conservative view process and principle matter. The liberal would say the CNN poll is right and who cares about eternals if Obama is up. Here we are questioning the poll. I like the side that would question the poll because it is not a do what it takes mentality because it feels good it is a crowd that says the most important thing is to get it right based on facts.
22 posted on 07/02/2012 3:58:38 PM PDT by pasr (You are crazy,,,,,,,,,,)
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To: DAC21

RE: I see Bambi only winning 15 States.

Hawaii, California, Wash, Ore, NM, Vermont, Conn. NY, NJ, Maryland, MI, IL, Wi, ME, Del.

_______________________________

How sure are you that Obama will lose PA? If he loses PA, he loses the elections. It’s as simple as that.


23 posted on 07/02/2012 3:59:41 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: Theodore R.
Rupert Murdoch just demanded that Romney fire his current team and hire a new, aggressive one if he wants to win. Sitting on an imaginary lead fails.

I think Team Romney has shown more fight and adroitness than I expected. You don't want to fire your best bullets in the summer when nobody's watching and when Obama is imploding half the time on his own.

If you're shrill this soon, folks will tune you out by October. I think his campaign team has shown the right mix of fight and restraint. We conservatives love red meat but now is not the time for that. Wait until the convention at least. Keep pounding the bad economy.

24 posted on 07/02/2012 4:05:23 PM PDT by OrangeHoof (Our economy won't heal until one particular black man is unemployed.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Obama’s goin’ down.


25 posted on 07/02/2012 4:06:18 PM PDT by popdonnelly (The first priority is get Obama out of the White House.)
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To: nhwingut

so az,in,mo up romneys numbers...then one would think...wi,nm,mi and pa would up obamas numbers even bigger..but romney still up 8...which the national journal calls slight


26 posted on 07/02/2012 4:07:28 PM PDT by lifeisagame
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To: CaptainK

Because CNN is a bonafide Obama ass-kisser news source, it must really be bad for Odumbo. 51 must really mean 61..


27 posted on 07/02/2012 4:10:52 PM PDT by max americana (Make the world a better place by punching a liberal in the face)
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To: MplsSteve

Ain’t that the truth...


28 posted on 07/02/2012 4:13:34 PM PDT by cableguymn
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To: GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
More likely, 0bama will declare Martial Law and cancel the election via executive order. He's already set precedence for unlawfully using executive orders. If he can wage war on Libya without approval from Congress or unilaterally overturn federal immigration laws, he can do anything. He's a 'one man' show.

That is indeed the only scenario I can see happening. Obama's not going anywhere if he loses the election. He will refuse to concede any election because it will be "the right thing to do".

29 posted on 07/02/2012 4:14:15 PM PDT by tsowellfan (http://www.cafenetamerica.com/)
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To: Williams

“Obama leads but is behind in “swing states” by 15 points??”

The Gallup poll is a 7-day rolling average. It’s lagging behind the other polls mentioned in the article. Rasmussen’s 3-day rolling average already has Romney up by 2 nationally.


30 posted on 07/02/2012 4:19:29 PM PDT by BarnacleCenturion
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To: SeekAndFind

Good to hear that Romney is substantially ahead in the swing states.


31 posted on 07/02/2012 4:48:31 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: SeekAndFind

He is only leading by 4 in the People’s Republic of Oregon.

Pray for America


32 posted on 07/02/2012 5:03:03 PM PDT by bray (Power to We the People)
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To: nhwingut

No, I think this year-—in addition to OH, VA and FL-—MI and NV and CO are important. If MI alone flips, that’s it. and if Romney wins the big three of OH, VA and FL, but doesn’t win CO or a combo of IA/WI/NH/NM, he loses if I have the numbers right.


33 posted on 07/02/2012 5:09:36 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: SeekAndFind; All
PA passed a Voter ID for the first time this year. Philly residents (even dead ones) will need to show a Photo ID. It is being challenged in court, but this is going nowhere as a picture ID is necessary in Chicago to buy Drano.
34 posted on 07/02/2012 5:11:58 PM PDT by Red in Blue PA (Read SCOTUS Castle Rock vs Gonzales before dialing 911!)
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To: Norman Bates

Of course, any polling this far out is pretty meaningless unless it’s showing a landslide. Remember McCain was leading by a couple as late as September before the economy collapsed, so a lot can happen.


35 posted on 07/02/2012 5:18:14 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: DAC21

I don’t think Zero will hold Michigan. I’m surprised you don’t list Illinois in his list of wins.


36 posted on 07/02/2012 5:30:46 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: SeekAndFind

Even winning all three (Fl, OH, VA) of those isn’t enough.

He would still need one out of: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico.

While not impossible, as much as I hate to say it, the Kenyan is the definitive favorite to win in November.

Romney may be able to get a real close win like GWB did in 2000, but I see zero chance of him winning a landslide. Demographics just won’t allow it.


37 posted on 07/02/2012 5:46:17 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: SeekAndFind
It's so over I'm starting to lose interest. Not a good thing I guess.
38 posted on 07/02/2012 6:05:39 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (=)
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To: DAC21
"Hawaii, California, Wash, Ore, NM, Vermont, Conn. NY, NJ, Maryland, MI, IL, Wi, ME, Del."

Omitted MA and RI by accident? We're not winning either one.

But duly corrected, that's 291EV-247EV, well within reach -- albeit unfolding differently, I think...

39 posted on 07/02/2012 6:11:39 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (=)
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To: Red in Blue PA

I had to show an ID at a public park pool in PA to get the discount rate. But they complain about having to provide ID to vote? Where is the logic here?


40 posted on 07/02/2012 6:14:20 PM PDT by woweeitsme
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To: SeekAndFind

Obama WILL NOT win Wisconsin. The conservative base here just beat back everything the national unions could throw at us. And believe me, it would have been an even worse trouncing if the liberal courts weren’t holding voter ID hostage.


41 posted on 07/02/2012 8:56:33 PM PDT by RINOphobic
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To: RINOphobic

I and my family am fired up like you cant believe.

I would vote every day till November 6 if it meanest getting rid of slumbama


42 posted on 07/02/2012 9:00:37 PM PDT by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: nhwingut

Virginia?!

If Virginia is at all in doubt, Myth’s a goner.

The GOP candidate won Virginia in 9 straight presidential elections unil Hopey-Changey 2008. If Myth doesn’t doesn’t win VA COMFORTABLY, it won’t be a good night for him.

Hank


43 posted on 07/02/2012 10:59:10 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball (Screw it. Newt's the smartest candidate and the guy I want to see debating Obummer. Flame away.)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

About 100,000 virginians have jobs due to Obama’s expansion of the federal govt. They probably lean gop but are not going to vote republican so they can lose their jobs.

Obama beat McCain by 8 due to the federal workers in Northern Virginia.

Mitt needs to flip 4 percent to tie, not an easy task.


44 posted on 07/02/2012 11:12:29 PM PDT by staytrue
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To: LS

Tonight on the local news here in Reno, NV — Dems registered 44,000 more Nevada voters in time for the primary than the GOP.

That doesn’t bode well for Senator Heller or Romney.

People need to GOTV or I’m very afraid for the next four years. Obama shoe in and no GOP majority in Congress to stop him.


45 posted on 07/02/2012 11:44:43 PM PDT by sf4dubya (I rebelled against my parents by becoming a conservative)
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To: Theodore R.

I agree with Murdoch. Romney’s Boston team needs to step up their game asap. Too many missteps by alleged pros.


46 posted on 07/03/2012 4:24:48 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: SeekAndFind

If he is up 51% to 43% amongst registered voters, then he is really plastering Obama amongst “likely” voters. Probably a 10-12% margin in that area.


47 posted on 07/03/2012 5:38:10 AM PDT by Jeff Head (Freedom is not free, never has been, never will be (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: MplsSteve

You really think that Romney is going to win Mass???


48 posted on 07/03/2012 6:42:18 AM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: staytrue

Yep. About half of Obama’s MOV in VA came from Fairfax County.

Loudoun (my county) was also a big supporter :-(

Romney will need to show strongly in Ffx and Loudoun to help offset inherent demographic advantage in Richmond and Morfolk.


49 posted on 07/03/2012 6:50:30 AM PDT by NOVACPA
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To: napscoordinator

“You really think that Romney is going to win Mass???”

No, I don’t think he will nor did I say he will.

My comment to DAC21 was only in regards to my homestate of Minnesota.


50 posted on 07/03/2012 7:52:57 AM PDT by MplsSteve (General Mills is pro-gay marriage! Boycott their products!)
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