CNN poll of battleground states: Romney 51, Obama 43

Hotair ^ | 07/02/2012 | AllahPundit

[SeekAndFind]

A rare case in which a news outlet actually tries to undermine its own poll by pointing out problems in its methodology. Is that because it's terrible for the Unicorn Prince or because, to be fair, it's hard to draw any conclusions from numbers these vague?

I'm not putting any stock in it but let's blog it anyway. After last week's SCOTUS groin-punch, we need something to be happy about.

About a third of all Americans live in states that are not considered safe Republican or safe Democratic strongholds, including toss-ups states (like Florida and Ohio) as well as states that lean toward one presidential candidate but could ultimately wind up voting for his rival. In those 15 "battleground states,' the poll indicates that Romney currently has a 51%-43% advantage over the president among registered voters, if the election were held today.

"Note carefully that this does not mean that Romney will win each of those states by eight points, or that he will win all 15 of those states," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "That's both good news and bad news for Romney. The good news: he has residual strength in states that the two campaigns are fighting over. The bad news: Romney is also spending resources defending states that should be part of the GOP coalition, rather than taking the battle to Obama's home turf."

The survey indicates that Romney clearly has a big advantage in some of those 15 states, but the data does not indicate which states he is currently winning or how big that advantage may actually be. Neither candidate needs to win all 15 of those states in order to win the general election, so the aggregate results from all 15 states do not forecast an Obama loss or a Romney victory.

Note to Holland: If Romney’s lead across swing states is approaching double digits then I’m pretty sure he’s not sweating over Obama’s “home turf,” especially since polls of registered voters tend to underestimate actual Republican strength on election day. So what’s driving the alleged big Romney wave? Must be a backlash to the Supreme Court ruling, no? No, actually: O still leads Romney by three overall (within the margin of error), same as he did last month. The only difference detected by CNN is a sudden spike in Democratic enthusiasm buoyed by their big Court win. The public’s short attention span will solve that problem in due time.

Gallup’s not seeing any “John Roberts bounce” for The One either. But:

The O-Care decision was announced between those two spikes at the far right of the graph so O’s recent surge obviously wasn’t due to the Court ruling. Maybe it was driven by a surge of Democratic and Latino enthusiasm after he announced his new DREAM policy? In that case, you’d expect to see his job approval rise too but there’s only been a slight bump lately and he’s actually underwater at the moment. Seems like his recent lead over Mitt might be more of an anti-Romney than a pro-Obama thing, although why that would be, I can’t imagine. Let’s chalk it up to statistical noise, hm? Even if it is his biggest lead in two months.

Exit question: How do you reconcile Romney’s eight-point swing state lead here with Obama’s eight-point swing state lead in NBC’s poll last week? Hint: Small sample sizes!

[pasr]

The problem conservatives have is truth telling.Today on the FIVE Beckel made his usual fool of himself. He said Obamacare was not a tax and words don't mean anything. I love that liberal argument. Defendants in criminal cases can now argue I was charged with murder but isn't that the same as manslaughter somebody dies. The view whatever it takes always persists in the liberal mind. The conservative view process and principle matter. The liberal would say the CNN poll is right and who cares about eternals if Obama is up. Here we are questioning the poll. I like the side that would question the poll because it is not a do what it takes mentality because it feels good it is a crowd that says the most important thing is to get it right based on facts.

[pasr]

The problem conservatives have is truth telling.Today on the FIVE Beckel made his usual fool of himself. He said Obamacare was not a tax and words don't mean anything. I love that liberal argument. Defendants in criminal cases can now argue I was charged with murder but isn't that the same as manslaughter somebody dies. The view whatever it takes always persists in the liberal mind. The conservative view process and principle matter. The liberal would say the CNN poll is right and who cares about eternals if Obama is up. Here we are questioning the poll. I like the side that would question the poll because it is not a do what it takes mentality because it feels good it is a crowd that says the most important thing is to get it right based on facts.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: I see Bambi only winning 15 States.

Hawaii, California, Wash, Ore, NM, Vermont, Conn. NY, NJ, Maryland, MI, IL, Wi, ME, Del.

_______________________________

How sure are you that Obama will lose PA? If he loses PA, he loses the elections. It’s as simple as that.

[OrangeHoof]

Rupert Murdoch just demanded that Romney fire his current team and hire a new, aggressive one if he wants to win. Sitting on an imaginary lead fails.

I think Team Romney has shown more fight and adroitness than I expected. You don't want to fire your best bullets in the summer when nobody's watching and when Obama is imploding half the time on his own.

If you're shrill this soon, folks will tune you out by October. I think his campaign team has shown the right mix of fight and restraint. We conservatives love red meat but now is not the time for that. Wait until the convention at least. Keep pounding the bad economy.

[popdonnelly]

Obama’s goin’ down.

[lifeisagame]

so az,in,mo up romneys numbers...then one would think...wi,nm,mi and pa would up obamas numbers even bigger..but romney still up 8...which the national journal calls slight

[max americana]

Because CNN is a bonafide Obama ass-kisser news source, it must really be bad for Odumbo. 51 must really mean 61..

[cableguymn]

Ain’t that the truth...

[tsowellfan]

More likely, 0bama will declare Martial Law and cancel the election via executive order. He's already set precedence for unlawfully using executive orders. If he can wage war on Libya without approval from Congress or unilaterally overturn federal immigration laws, he can do anything. He's a 'one man' show.

That is indeed the only scenario I can see happening. Obama's not going anywhere if he loses the election. He will refuse to concede any election because it will be "the right thing to do".

[BarnacleCenturion]

“Obama leads but is behind in “swing states” by 15 points??”

The Gallup poll is a 7-day rolling average. It’s lagging behind the other polls mentioned in the article. Rasmussen’s 3-day rolling average already has Romney up by 2 nationally.

[Signalman]

Good to hear that Romney is substantially ahead in the swing states.

[bray]

He is only leading by 4 in the People’s Republic of Oregon.

Pray for America

[LS]

No, I think this year-—in addition to OH, VA and FL-—MI and NV and CO are important. If MI alone flips, that’s it. and if Romney wins the big three of OH, VA and FL, but doesn’t win CO or a combo of IA/WI/NH/NM, he loses if I have the numbers right.

[Red in Blue PA]

PA passed a Voter ID for the first time this year. Philly residents (even dead ones) will need to show a Photo ID. It is being challenged in court, but this is going nowhere as a picture ID is necessary in Chicago to buy Drano.

[LS]

Of course, any polling this far out is pretty meaningless unless it’s showing a landslide. Remember McCain was leading by a couple as late as September before the economy collapsed, so a lot can happen.

[SunkenCiv]

I don’t think Zero will hold Michigan. I’m surprised you don’t list Illinois in his list of wins.

[comebacknewt]

Even winning all three (Fl, OH, VA) of those isn’t enough.

He would still need one out of: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico.

While not impossible, as much as I hate to say it, the Kenyan is the definitive favorite to win in November.

Romney may be able to get a real close win like GWB did in 2000, but I see zero chance of him winning a landslide. Demographics just won’t allow it.

[StAnDeliver]

It's so over I'm starting to lose interest. Not a good thing I guess.

[StAnDeliver]

"Hawaii, California, Wash, Ore, NM, Vermont, Conn. NY, NJ, Maryland, MI, IL, Wi, ME, Del."

Omitted MA and RI by accident? We're not winning either one.

But duly corrected, that's 291EV-247EV, well within reach -- albeit unfolding differently, I think...

[woweeitsme]

I had to show an ID at a public park pool in PA to get the discount rate. But they complain about having to provide ID to vote? Where is the logic here?