Skip to comments.CNN poll of battleground states: Romney 51, Obama 43
Posted on 07/02/2012 2:51:14 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
A rare case in which a news outlet actually tries to undermine its own poll by pointing out problems in its methodology. Is that because it's terrible for the Unicorn Prince or because, to be fair, it's hard to draw any conclusions from numbers these vague?
I'm not putting any stock in it but let's blog it anyway. After last week's SCOTUS groin-punch, we need something to be happy about.
About a third of all Americans live in states that are not considered safe Republican or safe Democratic strongholds, including toss-ups states (like Florida and Ohio) as well as states that lean toward one presidential candidate but could ultimately wind up voting for his rival. In those 15 "battleground states,' the poll indicates that Romney currently has a 51%-43% advantage over the president among registered voters, if the election were held today.
"Note carefully that this does not mean that Romney will win each of those states by eight points, or that he will win all 15 of those states," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "That's both good news and bad news for Romney. The good news: he has residual strength in states that the two campaigns are fighting over. The bad news: Romney is also spending resources defending states that should be part of the GOP coalition, rather than taking the battle to Obama's home turf."
The survey indicates that Romney clearly has a big advantage in some of those 15 states, but the data does not indicate which states he is currently winning or how big that advantage may actually be. Neither candidate needs to win all 15 of those states in order to win the general election, so the aggregate results from all 15 states do not forecast an Obama loss or a Romney victory.
Note to Holland: If Romney’s lead across swing states is approaching double digits then I’m pretty sure he’s not sweating over Obama’s “home turf,” especially since polls of registered voters tend to underestimate actual Republican strength on election day. So what’s driving the alleged big Romney wave? Must be a backlash to the Supreme Court ruling, no? No, actually: O still leads Romney by three overall (within the margin of error), same as he did last month. The only difference detected by CNN is a sudden spike in Democratic enthusiasm buoyed by their big Court win. The public’s short attention span will solve that problem in due time.
Gallup’s not seeing any “John Roberts bounce” for The One either. But:
The O-Care decision was announced between those two spikes at the far right of the graph so O’s recent surge obviously wasn’t due to the Court ruling. Maybe it was driven by a surge of Democratic and Latino enthusiasm after he announced his new DREAM policy? In that case, you’d expect to see his job approval rise too but there’s only been a slight bump lately and he’s actually underwater at the moment. Seems like his recent lead over Mitt might be more of an anti-Romney than a pro-Obama thing, although why that would be, I can’t imagine. Let’s chalk it up to statistical noise, hm? Even if it is his biggest lead in two months.
Exit question: How do you reconcile Romney’s eight-point swing state lead here with Obama’s eight-point swing state lead in NBC’s poll last week? Hint: Small sample sizes!
When a poll doesn’t provide a link to view the internals, I skip right over it.
More likely, 0bama will declare Martial Law and cancel the election via executive order. He's already set precedence for unlawfully using executive orders. If he can wage war on Libya without approval from Congress or unilaterally overturn federal immigration laws, he can do anything. He's a 'one man' show. I think that's called 'Dictator'.
Your post also shows the Gallup daily tracking poll with Obama up by 5%. Rasmussen has Romney up by 2%. So there is a lot of variability lately. However, I don’t buy that Romney is up 8% in swing states.
Interesting that Gallup has Obama at 46/47 approve-disapprove but polling at 48%.
It is an understatement to say these polls and comments in the article about the polls, make no sense.
Obama leads but is behind in “swing states” by 15 points??
CNN swing states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri are not normally polled as swing states (solid red). This may up Romney’s numbers.
However, polling PA, and NM do inflate Obama’s numbers too - as Romney has no chance.
The only states that really matter are FL, VA, and OH.
Rupert Murdoch just demanded that Romney fire his current team and hire a new, aggressive one if he wants to win. Sitting on an imaginary lead fails.
Team Obama is not beyond pulling Reichstag including a stirring speech afterwards.
Sure, many Obama voters really may not want to vote for him, but he is their party nominee to be.
You may not understand the depth of support Obama has even if it is under 48 percent. Many truly believe in such nonsense.
Otherwise,obama the underdog?
Next poll obama will advance 4-6%.
In reality he will have not moved at all.
Kind of the same trick they play with the unemployment numbers.
And the media would defend it and accuse those who disagree of racism.
There is nothing, no act or scandal, that Obama could not get away with.
He could be caught with BOTH the proverbial dead girl and live boy, and still the media would cover it up for him.
and the supremes will uphold his action 5-4
I see Bambi only winning 15 States.
Hawaii, California, Wash, Ore, NM, Vermont, Conn. NY, NJ, Maryland, MI, IL, Wi, ME, Del.
My criteria, any State Bambi won with 55% or less, he will lose in 2012.
He can try and he won't like the outcome.
RE: The only states that really matter are FL, VA, and OH.
Romney MUST win all of these 3 otherwise he won’t win. Just saying.
“I see Bambi only winning 15 States.
Hawaii, California, Wash, Ore, NM, Vermont, Conn. NY, NJ, Maryland, MI, IL, Wi, ME, Del.”
Don’t forget to toss Minnesota (10 EV’s) in there too.
We’re electorally stupid. We actually voted for Walter Mondale, Jesse Ventura AND Al Franken!
We got the “stuck on stupid” thing down pat.
RE: I see Bambi only winning 15 States.
Hawaii, California, Wash, Ore, NM, Vermont, Conn. NY, NJ, Maryland, MI, IL, Wi, ME, Del.
How sure are you that Obama will lose PA? If he loses PA, he loses the elections. It’s as simple as that.
I think Team Romney has shown more fight and adroitness than I expected. You don't want to fire your best bullets in the summer when nobody's watching and when Obama is imploding half the time on his own.
If you're shrill this soon, folks will tune you out by October. I think his campaign team has shown the right mix of fight and restraint. We conservatives love red meat but now is not the time for that. Wait until the convention at least. Keep pounding the bad economy.
Obama’s goin’ down.
so az,in,mo up romneys numbers...then one would think...wi,nm,mi and pa would up obamas numbers even bigger..but romney still up 8...which the national journal calls slight
Because CNN is a bonafide Obama ass-kisser news source, it must really be bad for Odumbo. 51 must really mean 61..
Ain’t that the truth...
That is indeed the only scenario I can see happening. Obama's not going anywhere if he loses the election. He will refuse to concede any election because it will be "the right thing to do".
“Obama leads but is behind in swing states by 15 points??”
The Gallup poll is a 7-day rolling average. It’s lagging behind the other polls mentioned in the article. Rasmussen’s 3-day rolling average already has Romney up by 2 nationally.
Good to hear that Romney is substantially ahead in the swing states.
He is only leading by 4 in the People’s Republic of Oregon.
Pray for America
No, I think this year-—in addition to OH, VA and FL-—MI and NV and CO are important. If MI alone flips, that’s it. and if Romney wins the big three of OH, VA and FL, but doesn’t win CO or a combo of IA/WI/NH/NM, he loses if I have the numbers right.
Of course, any polling this far out is pretty meaningless unless it’s showing a landslide. Remember McCain was leading by a couple as late as September before the economy collapsed, so a lot can happen.
I don’t think Zero will hold Michigan. I’m surprised you don’t list Illinois in his list of wins.
Even winning all three (Fl, OH, VA) of those isn’t enough.
He would still need one out of: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico.
While not impossible, as much as I hate to say it, the Kenyan is the definitive favorite to win in November.
Romney may be able to get a real close win like GWB did in 2000, but I see zero chance of him winning a landslide. Demographics just won’t allow it.
Omitted MA and RI by accident? We're not winning either one.
But duly corrected, that's 291EV-247EV, well within reach -- albeit unfolding differently, I think...
I had to show an ID at a public park pool in PA to get the discount rate. But they complain about having to provide ID to vote? Where is the logic here?
Obama WILL NOT win Wisconsin. The conservative base here just beat back everything the national unions could throw at us. And believe me, it would have been an even worse trouncing if the liberal courts weren’t holding voter ID hostage.
I and my family am fired up like you cant believe.
I would vote every day till November 6 if it meanest getting rid of slumbama
If Virginia is at all in doubt, Myth’s a goner.
The GOP candidate won Virginia in 9 straight presidential elections unil Hopey-Changey 2008. If Myth doesn’t doesn’t win VA COMFORTABLY, it won’t be a good night for him.
About 100,000 virginians have jobs due to Obama’s expansion of the federal govt. They probably lean gop but are not going to vote republican so they can lose their jobs.
Obama beat McCain by 8 due to the federal workers in Northern Virginia.
Mitt needs to flip 4 percent to tie, not an easy task.
Tonight on the local news here in Reno, NV — Dems registered 44,000 more Nevada voters in time for the primary than the GOP.
That doesn’t bode well for Senator Heller or Romney.
People need to GOTV or I’m very afraid for the next four years. Obama shoe in and no GOP majority in Congress to stop him.
I agree with Murdoch. Romney’s Boston team needs to step up their game asap. Too many missteps by alleged pros.
If he is up 51% to 43% amongst registered voters, then he is really plastering Obama amongst “likely” voters. Probably a 10-12% margin in that area.
You really think that Romney is going to win Mass???
Yep. About half of Obama’s MOV in VA came from Fairfax County.
Loudoun (my county) was also a big supporter :-(
Romney will need to show strongly in Ffx and Loudoun to help offset inherent demographic advantage in Richmond and Morfolk.
“You really think that Romney is going to win Mass???”
No, I don’t think he will nor did I say he will.
My comment to DAC21 was only in regards to my homestate of Minnesota.