Posted on 07/02/2012 2:51:14 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
A rare case in which a news outlet actually tries to undermine its own poll by pointing out problems in its methodology. Is that because it's terrible for the Unicorn Prince or because, to be fair, it's hard to draw any conclusions from numbers these vague?
I'm not putting any stock in it but let's blog it anyway. After last week's SCOTUS groin-punch, we need something to be happy about.
About a third of all Americans live in states that are not considered safe Republican or safe Democratic strongholds, including toss-ups states (like Florida and Ohio) as well as states that lean toward one presidential candidate but could ultimately wind up voting for his rival. In those 15 "battleground states,' the poll indicates that Romney currently has a 51%-43% advantage over the president among registered voters, if the election were held today.
"Note carefully that this does not mean that Romney will win each of those states by eight points, or that he will win all 15 of those states," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "That's both good news and bad news for Romney. The good news: he has residual strength in states that the two campaigns are fighting over. The bad news: Romney is also spending resources defending states that should be part of the GOP coalition, rather than taking the battle to Obama's home turf."
The survey indicates that Romney clearly has a big advantage in some of those 15 states, but the data does not indicate which states he is currently winning or how big that advantage may actually be. Neither candidate needs to win all 15 of those states in order to win the general election, so the aggregate results from all 15 states do not forecast an Obama loss or a Romney victory.
Note to Holland: If Romney’s lead across swing states is approaching double digits then I’m pretty sure he’s not sweating over Obama’s “home turf,” especially since polls of registered voters tend to underestimate actual Republican strength on election day. So what’s driving the alleged big Romney wave? Must be a backlash to the Supreme Court ruling, no? No, actually: O still leads Romney by three overall (within the margin of error), same as he did last month. The only difference detected by CNN is a sudden spike in Democratic enthusiasm buoyed by their big Court win. The public’s short attention span will solve that problem in due time.
Gallup’s not seeing any “John Roberts bounce” for The One either. But:
The O-Care decision was announced between those two spikes at the far right of the graph so O’s recent surge obviously wasn’t due to the Court ruling. Maybe it was driven by a surge of Democratic and Latino enthusiasm after he announced his new DREAM policy? In that case, you’d expect to see his job approval rise too but there’s only been a slight bump lately and he’s actually underwater at the moment. Seems like his recent lead over Mitt might be more of an anti-Romney than a pro-Obama thing, although why that would be, I can’t imagine. Let’s chalk it up to statistical noise, hm? Even if it is his biggest lead in two months.
Exit question: How do you reconcile Romney’s eight-point swing state lead here with Obama’s eight-point swing state lead in NBC’s poll last week? Hint: Small sample sizes!
Obama WILL NOT win Wisconsin. The conservative base here just beat back everything the national unions could throw at us. And believe me, it would have been an even worse trouncing if the liberal courts weren’t holding voter ID hostage.
I and my family am fired up like you cant believe.
I would vote every day till November 6 if it meanest getting rid of slumbama
Virginia?!
If Virginia is at all in doubt, Myth’s a goner.
The GOP candidate won Virginia in 9 straight presidential elections unil Hopey-Changey 2008. If Myth doesn’t doesn’t win VA COMFORTABLY, it won’t be a good night for him.
Hank
About 100,000 virginians have jobs due to Obama’s expansion of the federal govt. They probably lean gop but are not going to vote republican so they can lose their jobs.
Obama beat McCain by 8 due to the federal workers in Northern Virginia.
Mitt needs to flip 4 percent to tie, not an easy task.
I agree with Murdoch. Romney’s Boston team needs to step up their game asap. Too many missteps by alleged pros.
If he is up 51% to 43% amongst registered voters, then he is really plastering Obama amongst “likely” voters. Probably a 10-12% margin in that area.
You really think that Romney is going to win Mass???
Yep. About half of Obama’s MOV in VA came from Fairfax County.
Loudoun (my county) was also a big supporter :-(
Romney will need to show strongly in Ffx and Loudoun to help offset inherent demographic advantage in Richmond and Morfolk.
“You really think that Romney is going to win Mass???”
No, I don’t think he will nor did I say he will.
My comment to DAC21 was only in regards to my homestate of Minnesota.
Do NOT be too quick to count MI and WI for Obama. I’m thinking that Romney has a very good chance of carrying both. MI is his home state and Scott Walker and the Pubbies are fired up in WI and the Dems are depressed and suppressed.
Keep your powder dry on those two states.
obama “voters” are not the one’s going to get him re-elected; its the independents, young vote, white males- and thus far obama is losing two of the three with the spread in the young vote a fraction what it was four years ago....
Mitt, I think, really wants to win this-unlike McCain. I think he is waiting until after Labor Day. Who knows though, could be only wishful thinking that someone will campaign on what and who BO really is.
So far Romney has run very well, returning fire immediately where it seems necessary, keeping a low profile when there is little to gain by spouting off, resisting the impulse to grasp every little bit of bait thrown out by media whores and flunkies. His team must have some very sharp people on it.
Meantime, fundraising is going very well. Some of the bitter-enders around here just may have to gulp and grudgingly accept victory.
Things are worse now then than.
It's the economy, STUPID!
ROMNEY WILL WIN, HANDS DOWN!
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