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3 Must-See Charts For Anyone Who Thinks We're Going Into A Recession
TBI ^ | 7-3-2012 | Joe Weisenthal

Posted on 07/03/2012 1:02:17 PM PDT by blam

3 Must-See Charts For Anyone Who Thinks We're Going Into A Recession

Joe Weisenthal
Jul. 3, 2012, 3:25 PM

Our friend Matt Busigin, who writes the blog Macrofugue, has sent us 3 brilliant charts that give some much-needed context to the recent economic data.

What they do is look at the average progression of various datapoints in the 12 before a recession (black line) and compare that to the progression of that same datapoint right now (blue line).

So for example, here's the average progression of YOY growth in auto sales in (black line) vs. the YOY growth in auto sales over the last 12 months.

As you can see, the trend is nothing recessionary at all.

Macrofugue

Here's another one showing ISM employment. Again, same idea. The average pre-recession trend is in black and the current trend is in blue.

The trend is again much better.

Macrofugue

And finally, here's retail sales growth. The YOY change just doesn't look at all like past recessions.

Macrofugue

Good news for everyone. Bad news for all the gloomers who predict an imminent downturn.

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: ism; recession; recovery; retail
Obama pulls off a recovery!
1 posted on 07/03/2012 1:02:29 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam
During the campaign our Community Organizer-in-Chief will turn these charts upside down and start singing "happy days are here again".

Either that or he'll claim racism.

2 posted on 07/03/2012 1:05:56 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Bill Ayers Was *Not* "Just Some Guy In The Neighborhood")
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To: blam

As long as the King of Kenya keeps sending out those checks (Welfare, Unemployment, Fake Disability, etc.) retail sales will continue to show faux strength. We are headed towards a Greek style collapse when the debt overhang either caves in on us or taxes must be raised so high to simply maintain the status quo, that it removes an enormous amount of cash out of the economy sending our recession into a depression.


3 posted on 07/03/2012 1:11:17 PM PDT by festusbanjo (Nov 2012 is a battle between those who love freedom and those who love free stuff.)
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To: blam

If it wasn’t you, I’d think you were series. ;-)


4 posted on 07/03/2012 1:13:13 PM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: cuban leaf
The Greatest Economic Collapses In History
5 posted on 07/03/2012 1:15:11 PM PDT by blam
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To: Gay State Conservative

6 posted on 07/03/2012 1:15:26 PM PDT by dontreadthis
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To: Gay State Conservative

7 posted on 07/03/2012 1:15:26 PM PDT by dontreadthis
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To: cuban leaf

and hughes...


8 posted on 07/03/2012 1:18:05 PM PDT by brivette
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To: blam

how would one reconcile this with 15% unemployment / underemployment?


9 posted on 07/03/2012 1:18:28 PM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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To: blam
Unfortunately what these charts and assertions conveniently ignore is:

- Much of the western world's growth for the past 40 years has been fueled by a massive increase and expansion of debt, year after year. In spending that growing amount of money, we've had the benefits of consumption now with a delayed bill in the future. "Let our kids pay for it."

- The gradual - and more recently - accelerating - accumulation of growing debt (with increased banking leverage, governmental indebtedness, deficit spending, etc.) has started to reach the limits for weaker western countries.

- Eurozone countries which lack their own printing presses for money can't just inflate their currencies to devalue their debt any longer. Once their banks are maxed out in lending to them, they're out of luck... No sane investor would invest in Spain, etc. any more.

- The reality is that official measures of inflation have been changed and changed and changed to minimize the official levels of reported inflation. Figures reporting economic activity, therefore, appear to be better than they are in real terms because they are reported in nominal terms - not true inflation adjusted numbers.

This game of "solving the problem" through the issuance of ever more debt and more spending can be continued for additional years in places like the US... but there is an eventual end to this game, and it is not going to be pretty. That which cannot be sustained indefinitely just won't be...

10 posted on 07/03/2012 1:20:57 PM PDT by JustTheTruth
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To: blam
Going into a recession? We have been in one since 2008.
11 posted on 07/03/2012 1:21:12 PM PDT by Fiji Hill (Deo Vindice!)
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To: brivette

Yes, it’s definitely hugh!

He’s a friend of mine, btw...


12 posted on 07/03/2012 1:21:51 PM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: blam

Really? What do the trend lines look like before a full-up depression/collapse?


13 posted on 07/03/2012 1:22:38 PM PDT by null and void (Day 1259 of our ObamaVacation from reality - Heroes aren't made Frank, they're cornered...)
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To: blam

“Things are great! Vote for Obama!” - Joe Weisenthal


14 posted on 07/03/2012 1:23:11 PM PDT by Dr. Thorne (Don't vote for anyone who worked for Goldman Sachs)
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To: blam

Until we see the employment numbers going up, these ‘charts’ make little difference.


15 posted on 07/03/2012 1:27:03 PM PDT by wolfcreek (A closed eye mentality is the reason for our current reality)
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To: blam
We already are in a recession, we have been in one for 4 years.
Cars wear out and eventually have to be replaced.

16 posted on 07/03/2012 1:30:03 PM PDT by BitWielder1 (Corporate Profits are better than Government Waste)
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To: blam

So, does the data in these charts illustrate that things have not gotten “too much worse” in the last 10 - 12 months?
I would love to see that same data over the last 5 years...


17 posted on 07/03/2012 1:41:19 PM PDT by Repeal The 17th (We have met the enemy and he is us.)
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To: Gay State Conservative
During the campaign our Community Organizer-in-Chief will turn these charts upside down and start singing "happy days are here again".

Substitute "Cum on Feel the Noize" and we're there: CareerBuilder Super Bowl XL Commercial

18 posted on 07/03/2012 1:45:50 PM PDT by Dahoser (Separation of church and state? No, we need separation of media and state.)
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To: paul51
how would one reconcile this with 15% unemployment / underemployment?

Maybe you didn't hear: Emperor Hussein 0bama declared: "Private sector is doing just fine."

/sarc

All of us unemployed folks would beg to differ!

19 posted on 07/03/2012 2:02:51 PM PDT by The Sons of Liberty ("Get that bastard out of MY White House!")
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To: blam

We’re not in a recession but the GDP growth last quarter was 1.9%, a paltry figure.


20 posted on 07/03/2012 2:21:51 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: blam

Those charts are nonsense. Auto sales were manipulated by two things: first, the federal government has gone on buying sprees to replace all government cars and trucks pushing the buys to Government Motors. Second, the cars and trucks are considered sold when they are shipped to the dealers .... drive by some of the Government Motors dealers and look at the inventory. The same cutesy tricks are used the other statistics and charts.


21 posted on 07/03/2012 2:25:08 PM PDT by RetiredTexasVet (Skittle pooping unicorns are more common than progressives with honor & integrity.)
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To: dontreadthis

When I do that, #9 on the list is “obama is a cactus”. It must be because Google knows I’m in Arizona.


22 posted on 07/03/2012 2:38:00 PM PDT by AZLiberty (No tag today.)
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To: Signalman

If newly printed money wasn’t being borrowed and spent by the Treasury, the GDP numbers would be negative.

The problem with using the GDP to measure the economy is that it treats government deficit spending as growth.


23 posted on 07/03/2012 2:40:24 PM PDT by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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To: blam
These charts couldn't be much more meaningless.

I mean, let's pick three indicators and extrapolate from that to the entire economy. I can't say we're headed back into recession [official recession, that is,] but if I produce a chart that shows, say, onion sales are down, will "Business Insider" reconsider?

24 posted on 07/03/2012 2:41:15 PM PDT by BfloGuy (The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment.)
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To: dontreadthis

25 posted on 07/03/2012 3:08:00 PM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
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To: All

26 posted on 07/03/2012 3:09:58 PM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
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To: blam

Get underneath the charts.

Auto sales are up 15% over the past twelve months
Because:

1. I’m so screwed because my house is so far underwater, I can’t move up for many years, so I’d best buy a new car.

2. Gas prices are thru the roof, and I need to buy a new more efficient vehicle.

3. Last year I didn’t know whether GM or Chrysler were going to make it, so I held off a buying decision.

4. I had no idea whether my company was going to have another round of massive layoffs, and I sure didn’t want to take on debt if I got hit.

5. My 401K was totally decimated, so I had no idea how I could retire. Now that my portfolio has recovered, I feel more comfortable.

6. A few years ago, my ride had a bit of life left in her, so I didn’t go for the “cash for clunkers” deal as I didn’t know if my job was safe. Today I feel more positive,

Retail sales overall are trending down from a 5 to a 4 rating. I would expect that the overall retail sales include the large impact of auto sales which look quite positive on the prior chart, which then leads to the conclusion that except for automotive, the rest of retail sectors must really suck, especially household furnishings and appliances.


27 posted on 07/03/2012 3:36:27 PM PDT by Noob1999 (Loose Lips, Sink Ships)
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To: BfloGuy
It's much easier than that.

Let’s look at chart 1 – They chart year over year PERCENT, presumably of sales increase. Whoop-de-freakin’-doo! Heading into a recession one would expect the % of sales to be down over the prior year. Now consider the blue line, also % increase over the prior year, and it is trending upward. So what? They are not consecutive years, and the year before is not shown. It is not that difficult to show an upward trend when it is a % increase from under the basement where Bush and Obama placed us.

Chart 2 – ISM manufacturing employment index. Consider the left side scale of this chart. Notice that they don’t tell us what it is, they only provide numbers. Ever perform graphing using Excel? If one shrinks the scale and zooms in, two lines that were very close when the scale was reasonable become far apart - presto! We have recovery.

Chart 3 – a deceptive amalgam of both charts 2 and 1! They don’t tell you what the scale is, and they also pull the same year to year stunt with no basis to truly compare the lines. But do notice that they are both trending down…

This appears to be a case of using charts to lie to the public. What a shocker.

A more complete vetting of information could nullify what I wrote. But if the full data supports a recovery why is so much information missing?

28 posted on 07/03/2012 3:45:46 PM PDT by 70times7 (Serving Free Republics' warped and obscure humor needs since 1999!)
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To: blam

Significant cherry picking and data manipulation from where I sit. Since 2008 the universe of data has dramatically changed in order to support a a couple of “summers of recovery”. Without a nefarious rending of data, we have never left the recession. We may have neared the first bottom of a double dipper, but we haven’t seen the real bottom. In order to have a double dip you have to have a little bounce in the middle. Am I missing something or does this look lots like glowbull warming hockey sticks?


29 posted on 07/03/2012 3:56:28 PM PDT by Steamburg (The contents of your wallet is the only language Politicians understand.)
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To: 70times7
A more complete vetting of information could nullify what I wrote. But if the full data supports a recovery why is so much information missing?

"Business Insider" is cited often on FR -- usually by the same few. I find it a very unconvincing website and wonder if we're not witness to some blog-pimping. Why anyone would pimp this site on FR eludes me. It's completely and conventionally Keynesian and, therefore, liberal.

30 posted on 07/03/2012 5:23:51 PM PDT by BfloGuy (The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment.)
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To: RetiredTexasVet

They pushed a ton of cars down the pipeline. They are sitting on the dealers’ books (and their lots.). In April I bought a new Chevy truck. The dealer had 200 trucks on his lot. I know this dealer. He got a great deal to take a lot of his summer quota early. But he also knows you cannot push on a string.


31 posted on 07/03/2012 10:32:12 PM PDT by Vermont Lt (I just hate our government. All of them. Republican and Democrat.)
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