Skip to comments.3 Must-See Charts For Anyone Who Thinks We're Going Into A Recession
Posted on 07/03/2012 1:02:17 PM PDT by blam
3 Must-See Charts For Anyone Who Thinks We're Going Into A Recession
Jul. 3, 2012, 3:25 PM
Our friend Matt Busigin, who writes the blog Macrofugue, has sent us 3 brilliant charts that give some much-needed context to the recent economic data.
What they do is look at the average progression of various datapoints in the 12 before a recession (black line) and compare that to the progression of that same datapoint right now (blue line).
So for example, here's the average progression of YOY growth in auto sales in (black line) vs. the YOY growth in auto sales over the last 12 months.
As you can see, the trend is nothing recessionary at all.
Here's another one showing ISM employment. Again, same idea. The average pre-recession trend is in black and the current trend is in blue.
The trend is again much better.
And finally, here's retail sales growth. The YOY change just doesn't look at all like past recessions.
Good news for everyone. Bad news for all the gloomers who predict an imminent downturn.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Either that or he'll claim racism.
As long as the King of Kenya keeps sending out those checks (Welfare, Unemployment, Fake Disability, etc.) retail sales will continue to show faux strength. We are headed towards a Greek style collapse when the debt overhang either caves in on us or taxes must be raised so high to simply maintain the status quo, that it removes an enormous amount of cash out of the economy sending our recession into a depression.
If it wasn’t you, I’d think you were series. ;-)
how would one reconcile this with 15% unemployment / underemployment?
- Much of the western world's growth for the past 40 years has been fueled by a massive increase and expansion of debt, year after year. In spending that growing amount of money, we've had the benefits of consumption now with a delayed bill in the future. "Let our kids pay for it."
- The gradual - and more recently - accelerating - accumulation of growing debt (with increased banking leverage, governmental indebtedness, deficit spending, etc.) has started to reach the limits for weaker western countries.
- Eurozone countries which lack their own printing presses for money can't just inflate their currencies to devalue their debt any longer. Once their banks are maxed out in lending to them, they're out of luck... No sane investor would invest in Spain, etc. any more.
- The reality is that official measures of inflation have been changed and changed and changed to minimize the official levels of reported inflation. Figures reporting economic activity, therefore, appear to be better than they are in real terms because they are reported in nominal terms - not true inflation adjusted numbers.
This game of "solving the problem" through the issuance of ever more debt and more spending can be continued for additional years in places like the US... but there is an eventual end to this game, and it is not going to be pretty. That which cannot be sustained indefinitely just won't be...
Yes, it’s definitely hugh!
He’s a friend of mine, btw...
Really? What do the trend lines look like before a full-up depression/collapse?
“Things are great! Vote for Obama!” - Joe Weisenthal
Until we see the employment numbers going up, these ‘charts’ make little difference.
So, does the data in these charts illustrate that things have not gotten “too much worse” in the last 10 - 12 months?
I would love to see that same data over the last 5 years...
Substitute "Cum on Feel the Noize" and we're there: CareerBuilder Super Bowl XL Commercial
Maybe you didn't hear: Emperor Hussein 0bama declared: "Private sector is doing just fine."
All of us unemployed folks would beg to differ!
We’re not in a recession but the GDP growth last quarter was 1.9%, a paltry figure.