FR Exclusive: Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections

Rasmussen Reports ^ | July 4, 2012 | Political Junkie Too

[Political Junkie Too]

Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

Rasmussen has slowed down his key-state polling, so there has been little movement in the past month. At this point, my analysis of Rasmussen's polls has the race at Obama 247 and Romney at 234, with 57 Electoral Votes up for grabs. For this report, I will go through each state on my watch list in detail to set the trend going forward.

Colorado (9 EV)

Colorado is tied at 45% each. In 2008, Obama won in Colorado over McCain with 53.7% to 44.7%, so Obama lost a 9% lead.

At this time In 2008, Colorado was favoring Obama 43% to 41%. Rasmussen's next Colorado poll was in the last week of July, when Obama pulled ahead 49% to 42%. In mid-September it flipped to McCain 48% to 46%. The end of September had Obama leading 49% to 48%. The first week of October had Obama finally pulling away 51% to 45%. In the week before the election, Obama held his lead 51% to 47%.

Florida (29 EV)

Florida went for Obama in 2008 by 50.9% to 48.1%, making it a close race. I can see why Obama wants to block purging the voter rolls of invalid voters. Rasmussen has only polled Florida once so far in early May. At that point Romney polled ahead 46% to 45%.

In 2008, McCain was leading for most of the race. In March 08, McCain was up 47%-43%. In April it was 53%-38%. In May it was 50%-40%. Mid-June was 47%-39%, and end-of-June was 48% to 41%. Things changed in the end-of-July poll. Obama took the lead 46%-45%. Ny mid-September,it was back to McCain on top again 51%-46%. At the end of September, the vote evened at 47%, and in early October Obama led 52% to 45%. The last poll had McCain winning 50%-49%.

Florida is due for another poll.

Georgia (16 EV)

Georgia voted for McCain 52.1%-46.9%. Georgia has not been polled this year.

In early March of 2008, Georgia was for the GOP 53%-40%. The few polls that there were hovered at +/- this same result. It narrowed in the end as the undecided broke for Obama.

Indiana (11 EV)

Indiana was an extremely close race in 2008, voting for Obama by 49.9% to 48.8%. This time around, and end-of-May poll has Romney leading Obama 48%-42%, a comfortable lead.

In 2008, Rasmussen didn't poll Indiana until mid-September, when McCain was ahead 49%-47%. A last poll in November had McCain still leading 49%-46%. Obama turned it around in the last week.

Iowa (6 EV)

Iowa was a solid Obama state, voting 53.9% to 44.4%. In June, Rasmussen's poll found Romney barely ahead 47%-46%.

In 2008, a June poll showed Obama ahead of McCain 45%-38%. The next poll at the end of September still showed Obama leading 51%-43%. One last poll in November had Obama 52%-44%.

Michigan (16 EV)

Michigan is a blue state, voting for Obama 57.3% to 40.9%. A poll in mid-June shows Obama losing 7%, making this race just within the margin of error at 50%-42%. Another poll would be useful to see what direction Michigan is trending.

A June 2008 poll had Michigan in a closer race, with Obama leading 45%-42%. A late-July poll widened the lead 47%-39%. A September poll had Michigan at 51%-44%, and a November poll had it 53%-43%.

Missouri (10 EV)

Missouri was a squeaker of a race in 2008, voting for McCain by the slimmest of margins, 49.4% to 49.2%. Currently, a June poll has Romney with a solid lead at 49%-42%. An earlier poll had ROmney leading 48%-45%, so Romney is improving here.

At this point in 2008, McCain was ahead in Missouri 47%-42%. By October, Obama pulled ahead 50%-47%. In November, Rasmussen had it tied at 49%.

Montana (3 EV)

Montana was a close race in 2008, with McCain winning by 49.5% to 47.1%. As of May, Romney was leading 51%-44%. By June, Obama's support fell, making the race 51%-42%.

In 2008, Rasmussen had Republicans ahead in April by 48%-43%. By July, that flipped to Democrats ahead 48%-43%. In October it was back to McCain ahead 52%-44%. A final November poll had it for McCain at 50%-46%.

Nevada (6 EV)

Nevada went solidly for Obama in 2008 by 55.2% to 42.7%. It is still strongly in Obama's camp, with an early poll showing the race at 52%-44% for Obama. Nevada is at the edges of the margin of error, making it almost a certainty that it will vote for Obama again unless a new poll suggests otherwise.

Nevada was actually leaning Republican for awhile in 2008, with a May poll showing 46%-40%. A June poll narrowed the lead to 45%-42%, and by July it flipped to Obama 42%-40%. In September, it was back to McCain 49%-46%, but in October it was back to Obama 51%-47%. November had Nevada for Obama 50%-46%.

New Hampshire (4 EV)

New Hampshire voted for Obama by 54.1% to 44.5%. A June poll shows that Obama lost 6%, making it a race at 48%-43% for Obama.

In 2008, New Hampshire always preferred Obama by at least 10%.

North Carolina (15 EV)

North Carolina barely voted for Obama 49.7% to 49.4%. A May poll has Romney in the lead 51%-43%. The latest poll in June has the race closing a bit, with Romney still leading at 47%-44%.

In 2008, McCain was in a narrow lead for the summer at 45%-43%. By the end of September, McCain lost his lead to Obama 49%-47%. Rasmussen's last poll had McCain winning 50%-49%.

Ohio (18 EV)

Ohio voted for Obama with 51.4% to 46.8%. An early-season poll had Obama still leading at 46%-42%, with both sides losing support. A June poll has some of the undecideds moving to Romney at 46%-44%, a four-point add for Romney and another two-point loss for Obama.

Ohio was close in 2008 also, with the race polling at 45%-44% for Republicans throughout June. By the end of September, the race was 48%-47% for McCain. Rasmussen's final November poll had it even at 49%.

Pennsylvania (20 EV)

Pennsylvania went for Obama by 54.5% to 44.2%. A May poll shows Obama losing 7%, giving a 47%-41% Obama lead.

In 2008, McCain consistently trailed Obama throughout the election 5% or more, with the state finally breaking decidedly for Obama in October.

Virginia (13 EV)

Virginia overwhelingly voted for Obama by 52.6% to 46.3%. An early poll showed Romney leading 45%-44%, and an early June poll shows it tied at 47%, indicating that Obama has lost 5% so far.

A June 2008 poll had the race barely for Obama by 45%-44%. By July it was tied at 44%, and by September Obama pulled ahead 50%-47%. The November poll called it for Obama 51%-47%.

Wisconsin (10 EV)

Wisconsin was solidly Democrat in 2008, voting for Obama 56.2% to 42.3%. In May, this was still true with a poll showing Obama leading 49% to 45%. A mid-June poll now shows Romney in the lead 47%-44%, making Wisconsin a 12-point loss for Obama.

In 2008, Rasmussen was polling Wisconsin at 45%-43% for Obama throughout June. In July, Obama's lead widened to 50%-39%, and in November it was still 51%-44%.

Summary of Electoral College breakdown:

Obama - 247						Romney - 234
Safe		Leaning		Toss-Up		Leaning		Safe
EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State
55	California	16	Michigan	9	Colorado	16	Georgia	9	Alabama
7	Connecticut	6	Nevada	29	Florida	11	Indiana	3	Alaska
3	District of Columbia	4	New Hampshire	6	Iowa	10	Missouri	11	Arizona
3	Delaware	20	Pennsylvania	13	Virginia	3	Montana	6	Arkansas
4	Hawaii					15	North Carolina	4	Idaho
20	Illinois					3	North Dakota	6	Kansas
4	Maine					18	Ohio	8	Kentucky
10	Maryland					9	South Carolina	8	Louisiana
11	Massachusetts					3	South Dakota	6	Mississippi
10	Minnesota					10	Wisconsin	5	Nebraska
14	New Jersey							7	Oklahoma
5	New Mexico							11	Tennessee
29	New York							38	Texas
7	Oregon							6	Utah
4	Rhode Island							5	West Virginia
3	Vermont							3	Wyoming
12	Washington
201		46		57		98		136

Watch List:

• Arizona: +0.6% (R +13%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Colorado: No Poll (R +0%)
• Florida: No Poll (R +1%)
• Georgia: No Poll (R +5.2%)
• Indiana: No Poll (R +6%)
• Iowa: +2.6% (R +1%) - moves back within the margin of error
• Michigan: +1.1% (R -8%) - moves back within the margin of error
• Missouri: +1% (R +5%)
• Montana: No Poll (R +7%)
• Nevada: No Poll (R -8%)
• New Hampshire: +4.6% (R -5%) - moves back within the margin of error
• North Carolina: No Poll (R +8%)
• North Dakota: No Poll (R +8.7%)
• Ohio: No Poll (R +2%)
• Pennsylvania: No Poll (R -6%)
• South Carolina: No Poll (R +9.0%) - just within the default margin of error
• South Dakota: No Poll (R +8.4%)
• Virginia: +2% (R +0%)
• Wisconsin: +2% (R +3%)

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P90	Probability of 270
2008 Election	180	180	180	0.00%
11-May-12	193	220.73	248	0.16%
18-May-12	197	225.09	248	0.23%
25-May-12	206	232.72	256	1.21%
02-Jun-12	216	242.46	266	4.43%
09-Jun-12	221	247.73	275	14.02%
16-Jun-12	230	257.37	282	28.95%
23-Jun-12	231	257.92	282	30.10%
30-Jun-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%

And in the Senate... things aren't looking as good. The Republican lead is slipping, and chances of getting 51 seats has fallen below 50%.

This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

Montana saw some significant movement recently. A 10% Republican lead is now a 2% lead.

Republicans better turn their attention to the Senate immediately, before it slips further from their hands.

Watch List:

• Arizona 1: No Poll (R +16%) - based on latest poll, dropping from watch list
• Indiana 2: No Poll (R +0%)
• Massachusetts 1: No Poll (R +0%)
• Montana 2: -4% (R +2%) - moves back within the margin of error
• New Mexico 1: No Poll (R -4%)
• New York 1: No Poll (R -24%) - waiting for primary results
• Ohio 1: +1% (R -5%)
• Pennsylvania 1: No Poll (R -7%)
• Rhode Island 2: No Poll (R -7%)
• Tennessee 2: No Poll (R +2.7%)
• Virginia 2: -2% (R -2%)

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (47), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
2010 Election	47	47	47	0.00%	0
11-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
18-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
25-May-12	49	50.75	52	58.53%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3
09-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3
23-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
30-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3

I will continue to post these analyses as my own periodic threads instead of appending it to other news threads.

I look forward to reader comment.

-PJ

[BigEdLB]

I have my own system that accounts for Polling Bias, MSM Polls, Undecideds (3/4 to challenger), etc. Any poll can be corrected for using a consistent set of standards. Also you weight the poll by age...



Polling bias, Standard Procedure, to promote THE ONE, and convince us chances to rid ourselves are poor. It isn't. I am not as rosey as Dick Morris, but I am cautiously hopeful

[Political Junkie Too]

I agree that it's early. Since 2004, I've been putting out this analysis at best on a weekly basis, in order to show the movement in polls over time.

I'm starting now so we can see how the race progresses over the months. We also need to know where the areas of opportunity are.

I do look at poll bias, by doing what-if analysis that shifts the poll results by various factors, and seeing the effects on the Electoral College vote. I did that in my last report, but not on this one.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

I, too, have a system for accounting for poll bias. I don't always use it, but I look at it.

Please feel free to post your own analysis alongside mine for comparison.

-PJ

[BigEdLB]

I will be happy to post this periodically when the discussion turns to polling...

[1010RD]

You do a great job and thanks. You also truly do deserve sidebar mention.

What might be valuable, if it is even feasible, would be to look at campaign emphasis, news highlights, and major events shaping the public opinion. It would help give insights into why polls are moving.

I recall watching McCain fumble, but having the media really highlight it toward the end of the campaign. They savaged Sarah right from the start. Biden and Obama got a pass.

[Pasadena2k]

Thanks!

[Alas Babylon!]

Hey, put me BACK ON your Ping list. I’ve only been following you since you started doing this many elections ago!

[skinkinthegrass]

:-)

[Yardstick]

*Bump for Later*

[fieldmarshaldj]

Yup.

[nathanbedford]

Please add me to your ping list.

I agree, you should be given sidebar recognition.

[LibsRJerks]

This is awesome — thanks for the summary. Really motivates me to work harder in Virginia for the Senate race.

Whatever we can do locally is as or might be MORE important than this presidential.

Would be funny to see Obama hamstrung by a totally Republican Congress. He’s just go golfing for 4 years, which would leave the grownups to run the country. He’d of course, take credit ...but where have we seen that before?

[Leep]

Obama turned it around in the last week.

---

Was that around the time McGramps was frantically running around calling for an emergency meeting and generally appearing as if he had the onset of dementia?

The whole thing was just to weird. Even before McGramps had his spell the media kept making the race about the Republican VP nom and the guy who was running for Prezbo, who coincidentally had no record of occomplishments but had a nice smille and a “funny sounding name.”
Sounds like Baraq Ozombie.

[InterceptPoint]

Nice start.

[InterceptPoint]

And a nice start on the Senate by randita as well.

[Political Junkie Too]

Thanks. I have big shoes to fill.

-PJ

[MEG33]

The race will be won by Romney or Obama..There it is.

[MEG33]

I know it’s too early..but I enjoy looking at past results and comparing them..Thank you!

[OneWingedShark]

If he is not totally assured he will win, Obama will do something huge at the D convention; probably dump Biden.

In favor of Romney!
Romney will be glad to take the nomination and reciprocate by offering Obama VP on his ticket.
and thus were the Republican and Democrat parties are forever joined.

[/sarc][/cynic]

[OneWingedShark]

Who is a good alternative to Obama that we can support?

Gary Johnson, former NM gov.