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The Single Most Accurate Indicator of Labor Market Health (couldn't be clearer)
Mercatus ^ | 7-6-12 | Keith Hall

Posted on 07/08/2012 9:51:19 PM PDT by STARWISE

The release of the June labor market data marks the third anniversary of the official end of the recession that began in June 2009. Thus, this is a good moment to look at the single best indicator of U.S. labor market health. As is so often the case, it is also one of the simplest: the employment-to-population ratio.

In essence, this tells us what share of the working-age population (16-years old and above) has a job. When the ratio goes up, things are getting better. When it doesn’t, the labor market is not recovering.

To know what kind of job growth we need for economic recovery, we must first realize that the United States is still a growing nation. Each month, the working-age population grows by an estimated 180,000 people. Simply to support this growing population, we need to add at least 130,000 new jobs.

With anything less, we fall further behind. No matter what the other economic data indicates, a true labor market recovery requires job growth strong enough to consistently raise the employment-to-population ratio.

This would mean adding at least 250,000 new jobs per month, every month, for years.


TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: economy; jobs; jobsreport; laborchart; labormarket; monster; obama; unemployment
Even more graphic from US Dept of Labor, shown on the blog site of a Harvard economics professor with this title: Saturday, July 07, 2012 - Monitoring the So-Called Recovery .

Damn the vicious, blockheaded, willfully stubborn and prideful monster who refuses to admit his catastrophic failures and change course NOW before we're past the point of no return! Lord, help us.

1 posted on 07/08/2012 9:51:25 PM PDT by STARWISE
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To: onyx; penelopesire; maggief; hoosiermama; SE Mom; Liz; rodguy911; Fred Nerks; Red Steel; ...

.. Ping!


2 posted on 07/08/2012 9:52:29 PM PDT by STARWISE (The overlords are in place .. we are a nation under siege .. pray, go Galt & hunker down)
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To: STARWISE

When Government is allowed to proclaim their flawed 8.2% unemployment figures as a “step in the right direction” they deceive us all by arbitrarily carving off the millions of Americans they deem no longer “participating” in fruitless employment searches via Government record keepers.


3 posted on 07/08/2012 9:58:05 PM PDT by Xcoastie (If you think education is expensive, try ignorance)
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To: STARWISE

Labor market participation is the booby prize of all economies.

U.S. G.D.P. Is growing even as fewer participate. Think long and hard about that fact.


4 posted on 07/08/2012 9:58:39 PM PDT by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Xcoastie

‘they deceive us all ‘

I’m not deceived.

Anyone else on here deceived by the gov’t?


5 posted on 07/08/2012 10:04:04 PM PDT by AlmaKing
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To: STARWISE

Check out my blog The Obama Clarifier for more dirt on Obozo. http://obamaclarifier.blogspot.com/


6 posted on 07/08/2012 10:08:58 PM PDT by garjog
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To: Southack

U.S. G.D.P. Is growing even as fewer participate.

* * *

How’s that?

* * *
July 8, 2012

“Most of my recent analysis has pertained to Europe.

However, on the other side of the pond, the US economy is showing major signs of deterioration. The jobs data, even after the BLS massages it, is awful. Secondly, 1Q12 GDP estimates have been revised lower.

We’ve also seen the two consecutive bad Philly Fed surveys, including the fact that the average workweek has shortened for two months now. We’re also seeing a drop in the Empire Manufacturing index.

In addition to this, we’ve seen the following companies cut their forecasts for 2012: Pall (PLL), Nucor (NUE), Ryder Systems (R), Proctor & Gamble (PG), Cardinal Health (CAH), Texas Instruments (TXN), Starbucks (SBUX), Autodesk (ADSK), FedEx (FDX), Jabil Circuit (JBL), Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY), and Adobe Systems (ADBE).

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-07-08/us-entering-recession-worst-state-post-wwi-period-right-fed-realizes-its-out-

___________________________________________________

“There are 12.7 million unemployed people in the United States, according to the recently released June unemployment figures from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics.”

http://www.troymessenger.com/2012/07/06/local-unemployment-good-compared-to-national-average/

And I don’t think that’s counting those who’ve stopped looking after 2 yrs trying, or taken low wage part-time jobs.

~ ~ ~

Unemployment Rate Dropped In Every State That Elected A Republican Gov. In 2010

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/07/07/Unemployment-Rate-Dropped-In-Every-State-That-Elected-A-Republican-Gov-In-2010

~ ~ ~

To see this tragedy created intentionally in the greatest nation on the face of the earth from the dictator bully’s over-regulation, punishments and the massive uncertainty and doubt his arbitrary and radical policies have forced on business people and wealth/job creators is beyond insidious, treasonous and despicable.


7 posted on 07/08/2012 10:24:31 PM PDT by STARWISE (The overlords are in place .. we are a nation under siege .. pray, go Galt & hunker down)
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To: STARWISE

I want my kid to pop Obama in the nose.


8 posted on 07/08/2012 10:50:23 PM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of The Masses Could Be Farts)
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To: mylife

I know .. what caring, savvy parent wouldn’t. It’s beyond breathtaking and infuriating to see our wonderful country driven to these depths of despair .. and intentionally.

Our kids and their kids will never know the relative sanity and peace of mind that mostly blessed our lives at their ages. What an evil, evil man.

Now, he’s going to announce he wants to extend the Bush tax cuts for a year, but only for that segment under $250K, once again insistent on punishing those risk taking small business people who create jobs and the successful, so they’ll keep sitting on the sidelines.


9 posted on 07/08/2012 11:08:17 PM PDT by STARWISE (The overlords are in place .. we are a nation under siege .. pray, go Galt & hunker down)
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To: STARWISE

So that’s what a recovery is supposed to look like?


10 posted on 07/08/2012 11:10:25 PM PDT by BradyLS (DO NOT FEED THE BEARS!)
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To: BradyLS

“So that’s what a recovery is supposed to look like?”

The definition I’ve heard is that we are in a “recovery” when the current grow rate exceeds the long term growth rate trend line (about 3-1/2 %). We were in a recovery in late 2009 and early 2010. Since the summer of 2010, the growth rate has been about 1-1/2 % to 2-1/2 . In other words, the recovery ended about 2 years ago.


11 posted on 07/08/2012 11:56:30 PM PDT by haroldeveryman
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To: STARWISE

GDP is still growing, even if that growth was revised lower.


12 posted on 07/09/2012 12:08:26 AM PDT by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: STARWISE

This is all well and good, but I know several families where one spouse lost a job, and have now made a conscious decision to keep the “unemployed” spouse home to raise the kids. It’s hard to estimate an accurate unemployment rate when you have this kind of dynamic going on.


13 posted on 07/09/2012 4:02:37 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: STARWISE

Interesting that the decline seems to have started in early 2007 which would coincide with the beginning of the Reid-Pelosi congress. The graph you linked shows this more clearly than any other I’ve seen. Thanks!


14 posted on 07/09/2012 4:03:48 AM PDT by hotshu (Redistribution of wealth by the government is nothing but theft under the color of law.)
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To: Southack

If GDP grows at a rate of 1% while the working-age population grows at a rate of 2%, then you can see that this is a serious problem.


15 posted on 07/09/2012 4:20:00 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: STARWISE
Yes but Obama leads in battleground state by 2! Yeah sure, you got it! Whom do these pollsters think they are fooling? He's not winning any group he lost in 2008 and is not doing better with any group he won not even Blacks. What planet are these pollsters surveying?
16 posted on 07/09/2012 4:46:09 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: STARWISE
.. the third anniversary of the official end of the recession that began in June 2009


17 posted on 07/09/2012 4:50:51 AM PDT by tomkat (FU barry)
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To: STARWISE

I agree that employment to population ratio is the best indicator. However, I was reading in some thread on Friday that the best of the e/p ratios is actually the one that goes from about 22 - 55 years of age. Apparently, that is considered the most “clean” view of how the economy is going because it excludes teens and semi-retired and retired workers from the mix.

In short, it shows those who MUST have a job and how they are doing getting a job.

I remember the graph was dismal.


18 posted on 07/09/2012 5:20:44 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: Southack

Government spending is a component of the GDP. The fact that we are overspending at almost $1 trillion more per year than during W’s last budget serves to mask the current private sector health.


19 posted on 07/09/2012 5:27:11 AM PDT by Sgt_Schultze (A half-truth is a complete lie)
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To: Xcoastie
arbitrarily carving off the millions of Americans they deem no longer “participating” in fruitless employment searches

I hope Romney and other Republicans start using the actual unemployment rate instead of that 8.2% nonsense.

20 posted on 07/09/2012 5:32:53 AM PDT by Right Wing Assault (Dick Obama is more inexperienced now than he was before he was elected.)
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To: AlmaKing

Good point. I’m encouraged you are not deceived, beginning to think American’s are buying this Obama crap when the polls are still so close. I should have said they are trying to deceive us all.


21 posted on 07/09/2012 6:52:57 AM PDT by Xcoastie (If you think education is expensive, try ignorance)
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To: STARWISE

BKMK


22 posted on 07/09/2012 7:37:25 AM PDT by Sergio (An object at rest cannot be stopped! - The Evil Midnight Bomber What Bombs at Midnight)
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To: STARWISE

I deal mostly with small businesses and I am seeing many spouses “working” for the husband’s (or wives’) company for no pay because they lost their job. Better than just sitting on your butt.


23 posted on 07/09/2012 7:58:32 AM PDT by Crusher138 ("Then conquer we must, for our cause it is just")
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To: haroldeveryman

...”We were in a recovery in late 2009 and early 2010.”....

Says who? The BLS, “independent economists”, the WH, others? I think the GDP data can be fudged, just like the BLS data are fudged. I believe the US economy has not come out of the recession, but in fact I believe it is deepening. The Obama Administration is being criminally aided and abetted by liberal bureaucrats, and by the criminally complicit media that are covering up for it. Don’t believe any of it!


24 posted on 07/09/2012 11:37:39 AM PDT by astounded (Barack Obama is a clear and present danger to the USA)
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To: astounded

The root cause of the 2008 recession was a government policy, that everyone should be able to own a house whether he could afford it or not. The government forced banks to lend money at artificially low interest rates to poor people who could not afford to keep up their mortgage payments (sub-prime loans). As a result, banks big and small were stuck with bad loans that could not be paid off. The market value of these loans fell to such a low level that large banks were forced to declare bankruptcy. Of course, Bush was declared the villain, as he happened to be President when the scheiss hit the fan. But the issuing of sub-prime loans had its roots in something called the Community Reinvestment Act which was passed during the Carter administration and implemented under Clinton.

The stock market started to recover in March 2009, after extensive examination by bean counters concluded that the banking system had stabilized. By that time, businesses had laid off their inexperienced and less productive and non productive departments.

Weak businesses ceased to exist. Businesses and people got out of debt and saved their cash. This process normally sets the stage for a recovery, and that’s what we got in late 2009 and early 2010. All he had to do was to keep doing nothing, and the economy would have kept going onward and upward. Obama would have been declared a genius and would have been a cinch for re-election, just the way Clinton landed on his feet in 1996 after Gingrich forced Clinton to balance the in spite of his worst instincts.

Unfortunately, Obama squandered stimulus and other taxpayer money by lavishing it on non-productive enterprises like public union pension funds and entitlements, and there went the recovery.

With Obamacare and promises of large business tax and income tax hikes in 2013 staring at them, potential investors like banks and small businessmen are still wisely sat on their cash as they well should, still waiting for a second chance at a recovery. If that ever happens, it won’t be under Obama.


25 posted on 07/09/2012 11:35:07 PM PDT by haroldeveryman
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