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Battle for the White House (Real Clr Pltcs - Obama leads National Poll, Electoral College & Intrade)
Real Clear Politics ^ | 9 Jul 12 | RCP

Posted on 07/09/2012 11:00:43 AM PDT by xzins

Election 2012.....Obama....Romney....RCP Average

National Polls.....47.0.....44.4..........Obama +2.6
Electoral College...221......181
Intrade Odds.......56.1.....41.4

Battlegrounds.....Obama...Romney......RCP Average
Ohio..................46.2.....43.6.......Obama +2.6
Virginia..............47.2.....44.8.......Obama +2.4
Florida...............46.7.....45.0.......Obama +1.7
North Carolina........45.3.....47.3......Romney +2.0
Colorado..............47.2.....44.2.......Obama +3.0

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: elections; obama; romney
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1 posted on 07/09/2012 11:00:56 AM PDT by xzins
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To: xzins

Real Clear never uses Rasmussen, the most accurate poll in the last 5 elections. Their averages therefore are flawed. Does anyone really believe with the latest employment news and with Romney beating Obama in fundraising by $35 million that Obama’s leading? I don’t. And Rasmussen shows Romney ahead slightly. Not interested in Real Clear’s nonsense.


2 posted on 07/09/2012 11:04:10 AM PDT by MissesBush (The Fourth Estate has Become a Fifth Column)
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To: xzins

Obama for President? I wonder what a POS president looks like, if Obama is a good president. I guess America does not know about his NUMEROUS impeachable offenses or simply does not care. The indoctrinated youth of yesterday have come of age to vote today. Constitution, WHAT Constitution?


3 posted on 07/09/2012 11:04:32 AM PDT by GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
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To: MissesBush

Real Clear Politics has used Rasmussen for years:

For Today you can see Rasmussen clearly listed at:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html


4 posted on 07/09/2012 11:07:08 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: GeorgeWashingtonsGhost

It’s like, as long as the S hasn’t HTF yet, everything’s completely hunkey dorey.

If and when Mitt begins a vigorous self defense from the nonsense being hurled at him by Barack (I know other sources are debunking it, but still it would be nice to see Mitt come to life), I would expect the battle to tilt his way.


5 posted on 07/09/2012 11:08:40 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (let me ABOs run loose, lew)
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To: GeorgeWashingtonsGhost

IIRC, Obama is leading in every demographic except middle age and senior white guys.


6 posted on 07/09/2012 11:09:12 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins

I.e. the people who know better!


7 posted on 07/09/2012 11:10:57 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (let me ABOs run loose, lew)
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To: xzins

RealClearPolitics includes a lot of junk polls to get their average.

Romney 46%
Obama 45%.

Monday, July 09, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting 46% of the vote, while President Obama earns support from 45%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.


8 posted on 07/09/2012 11:13:12 AM PDT by 1035rep
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To: All


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9 posted on 07/09/2012 11:15:26 AM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: 1035rep

any site that quotes PPP, is doo doo dooo.


10 posted on 07/09/2012 11:15:35 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: xzins
The RCP average is useless because they average polls that do not utilize the same polling message, data or demographics. One poll may be general population another may be likely voters, another registered voters etc. Pick on pol and follow it, I choose Rasmussen because of their mention of giving a rolling average. Polls are useless until after the Conventions are over, they are a snapshot in time. This poll comes after the 4th holiday when most people are detached, does not reflect dismal job numbers from Friday etc. It will move up and down for the next few months. I will start worrying when Obama is consistently above 50% with Rasmussen in Sep and Oct.
11 posted on 07/09/2012 11:16:44 AM PDT by OldGoatCPO
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To: MissesBush
While I too have doubts about the "weighting" and "poll selection" in the averages, I still have an optimistic perspective on these numbers.

I believe the deep blues like California, New York, Massachusetts and Oregon really pad Obamas numbers with their larger samplings due to large population and very large socialist sheeple spreads. Since we have the electoral college, this means the election could actually be one by with a minority of the popular vote...so I still think Romney is now winning and will build that lead.

12 posted on 07/09/2012 11:17:48 AM PDT by Positive (Nothing is sadder than to see a beautiful theory murdered by a gang of brutal facts.)
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To: xzins

"Ideology, What's THAT?.. He's so dreeeeeeeemy"

13 posted on 07/09/2012 11:18:03 AM PDT by GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
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To: xzins

Of course he does. The republicans are getting ready to nominate another loser. The democrats have been setting the stage and creating issues custom designed for Romney for over three years, knowing full well the idiots would nominate him. The smartest guy in the room tried to tell people this, and actually showed people in the debates precisely what was going to happen, but oh no, they didn’t want a negative candidate. How dare a conservative ask questions about an opponents wealth, job creation record, overseas accounts and YIKES! Bain Capital.......played right in to their hands.


14 posted on 07/09/2012 11:20:04 AM PDT by Toespi
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To: xzins

Of course he does. The republicans are getting ready to nominate another loser. The democrats have been setting the stage and creating issues custom designed for Romney for over three years, knowing full well the idiots would nominate him. The smartest guy in the room tried to tell people this, and actually showed people in the debates precisely what was going to happen, but oh no, they didn’t want a negative candidate. How dare a conservative ask questions about an opponents wealth, job creation record, overseas accounts and YIKES! Bain Capital.......played right in to their hands.


15 posted on 07/09/2012 11:20:04 AM PDT by Toespi
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To: xzins

Awesome! So Holders people and Obama supporters can just hang on to their cash. Obama doesn’t need any campaign workers or cash. He’s doing JUST fine.


16 posted on 07/09/2012 11:20:06 AM PDT by listenhillary (Courts, law enforcement, roads and national defense should be the extent of government)
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To: HiTech RedNeck

I actually agree with that. Does that make me a redneck, too? :>)


17 posted on 07/09/2012 11:20:22 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins
So 8.5% Undecided, of which Mittens will take minimum 80%.

Or would you rather I just post the glass chewer pic? lol...


18 posted on 07/09/2012 11:20:46 AM PDT by StAnDeliver ("Crunchcrunchcrunchcrunchcrunchcrunchcrunchcrunchcrunchcrunchcrunchcrunch...")
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To: xzins

The only way Obama is not going to win in Nov is if the Dems switch him for another nominee in Charotte...

Hows does Hillary grab ya...

of course it depends also on what the GOP-e does in Tampa...

If they do the right thing and dump Willard the Dems might change horses also...

But right now Willie cant beat Obama

Willie couldnt even beat McCain...

or Teddy Kennedy...

Although Willie tried his liberal bestest...

running like a crazy man to the left of Teddy...


19 posted on 07/09/2012 11:21:30 AM PDT by Tennessee Nana (Why should I vote for Bishop Romney when he hates me because I am a Christian)
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To: xzins

RCP is a mish-mash of unscientific and scientific computed results. Based on credible sources I would put this race as tied or even with Romney with a slight lead.

These battleground results also do not jibe with the results taken earlier this week. Here is a sample from CNN yet:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2902068/posts


20 posted on 07/09/2012 11:21:34 AM PDT by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: xzins

This election is similar to the Reagan-Carter election of 1980. At this time the polls had Carter way ahead of
Reagan, but Reagan closed well and won in a landslide. Of course we didn’t have as many freeloaders then and Romney is no Reagan. Bit if Romney starts showing he’s not afraid of Obama he can pull it off. He’s got too many wimps on his staff andhis VP pick is critical.


21 posted on 07/09/2012 11:22:23 AM PDT by kenmcg (t)
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To: xzins

Wasn’t Intrade the one that had the SCOTUS ruling Mandate unconstitutional by huge numbers?


22 posted on 07/09/2012 11:22:33 AM PDT by OldGoatCPO
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To: xzins

I don’t think there is any doubt that Obama is ahead right now. He has the 45% entitlement class vote locked up. Romney hasn’t even fully secured his base yet.

The good news for Romney, is that Obambi seems stuck on 46 - 47% in most polls. That creates an opportunity for Romney to win. He just has to convince people he is a credible alternative.

His problem in recent weeks is that Obama and the MSM have been hammering him as being an out of touch “outsourcing pioneer”. To this point, Romney has done a terrible job of addressing that, and his favorables have taken a beating.

If Romney goes on the attack soon, he can still win this. If not, he can take a seat by McCain and Dole and dream about what might have been.


23 posted on 07/09/2012 11:22:58 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: xzins

Let’s face it gang, Romney doesn’t have a chance. Obama is style over substance, a man of the times for the times. Also there are more malleable morons voting than anytime in history. The inescapable conclusion - Obama wins, and there’s nothing that Romney can do to alter that.


24 posted on 07/09/2012 11:23:01 AM PDT by donaldo
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To: GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
FORWARD. That's an "interesting" campaign slogan.

Forward to what?

What is the END GOAL?

More Socialism?

A RETURN to the Constitutional foundations of this nation would be better.

Maybe if Obama is interested in Forwards, he should write one for "his" autobiography to disclose that names, places, and documents within may be BULLSTALIN.

25 posted on 07/09/2012 11:23:01 AM PDT by a fool in paradise (Fools.Damn fools.Welcome to the USSA. Socialism is slavery to the State and the Supreme Court did it)
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To: HiTech RedNeck
If and when Mitt begins a vigorous self defense from the nonsense being hurled at him by Barack

They had this discussion on FoxNews someplace today, that the Republicans tend to hold their cash 'til the end for one big "shock and awe" campaign.

The talking head lady said that the problem with that was it gives the dems a chance to define the debate and the candidate in such a way that it's hard to recover. There was a clear sense that no one really liked the rope-a-dope strategy, that it gave away way to much ground.

The polls are saying that it correct. All I've heard here in Ohio for a coupla weeks is Obama ad after Obama ad and an occasional tweak of Obama by a pro-romney pac. In that time, Romney has lost a lead in Ohio.

26 posted on 07/09/2012 11:25:36 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins

stick that red neck out, be proud of it


27 posted on 07/09/2012 11:25:58 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (let me ABOs run loose, lew)
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To: DarthVader

Broke my own rule and looked at the polls in question, those giving the highest difference (including FOX) had less than 1000 people and only did “RV” (registered voters)every one with a drivers license id a registered voter for Christ sake. Likely voters have a track record of voting in previous elections. RCP is so unscientific it is ridiculous. To make matters worse in every poll Obama’s numbers are with the margin of error. Not good for an imcumbent.


28 posted on 07/09/2012 11:29:11 AM PDT by OldGoatCPO
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To: DarthVader
Broke my own rule and looked at the polls in question, those giving the highest difference (including FOX) had less than 1000 people and only did “RV” (registered voters)every one with a drivers license is a registered voter for Christ sake. Likely voters have a track record of voting in previous elections. RCP is so unscientific it is ridiculous. To make matters worse in every poll Obama’s numbers are with the margin of error. Not good for an incumbent.
29 posted on 07/09/2012 11:29:34 AM PDT by OldGoatCPO
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To: Tennessee Nana

yep,
.
yep,
yep,
yep,
& yep.


30 posted on 07/09/2012 11:29:41 AM PDT by kevcol
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To: OldGoatCPO

RCP has been a decent barometer the past few election cycles. It averages name polls with decent samples that use either registered or likely voters.

I think it’s still fair 4 months out to be using registered voter polls, but not for much more than another month or so. Registered are fully able to vote legally already, it’s just that not all of them will. The pollsters should be making strides in refining down to likely voters as these people indicate whether they will or won’t participate this time around.


31 posted on 07/09/2012 11:30:08 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: Positive
To be virtually even with the incumbent four months away from the election is not a bad place to be. Romney may be a moderate, like McCain and Dole, but he appears to be more driven than those two unsuccessful Republican candidates. He has no day job in the Senate to fall back on. The fact that Romney is outstripping Obama in fundraising is indicative that a lot of wealthy individuals in the moderate to conservative categories, especially in the financial sector, who sat out 2008 are betting on a Romney win. It appears much of Obama's funding is coming from the reliably leftist entertainment and media businesses and the unions.

Romney's victory is far from a slam dunk but the signs are encouraging. The Mormon vote could well place Nevada, Arizona, and Colorado in the red category. The defeat of the recall election for Scott Walker bodes well for a GOP win in Wisconsin. Whoever carries Ohio and Florida will win the overall election.

32 posted on 07/09/2012 11:30:33 AM PDT by Wallace T.
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To: OldGoatCPO
one with a drivers license is a registered voter for Christ sake

Not in Ohio. You MUST register to be a registered voter.

33 posted on 07/09/2012 11:31:40 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins

Isn’t 3% a common margin of error? If it is, they are possibly tied.


34 posted on 07/09/2012 11:32:05 AM PDT by PghBaldy (I eagerly await the next news about the struggles of Elizabeth Sacheen Littlefeather Warren.)
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To: Wallace T.

Florida is a must win for Romney.

If Romney can pick off Michigan, then Ohio isn’t nearly as crucial.


35 posted on 07/09/2012 11:33:37 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins
Real Clear would do well to exclude outlier polls. They allowed that ridiculous Bloomberg poll into the mix which really screwed with the averages (in favor of Obama, of course).
36 posted on 07/09/2012 11:34:04 AM PDT by JPG (Whatever semantics are used, it is still a TAX.)
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To: OldGoatCPO

I think they did. It’s basically a betting game.

In their defense, they sure weren’t alone. Everyone thought the individual mandage would sink ObamaCare. I thought so....I think even Pelosi and Reid thought so.


37 posted on 07/09/2012 11:36:53 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: Wallace T.

I don’t the the PAC’s have spoken yet.

July / August - vacation time, outside, not many watching TV.


38 posted on 07/09/2012 11:37:44 AM PDT by listenhillary (Courts, law enforcement, roads and national defense should be the extent of government)
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To: xzins
"He who controls communications controls the world."

Things are not always what they seem.

The MSM creates reality for us. They do what they're told, but I believe the world is starting to figure it out.

Who owns the Federal Reserve? Who are the unelected people in charge? Some people think that the Federal Reserve Banks are United States Government institutions. They are private monopolies which prey upon the people of these United States for the benefit of themselves and their foreign customers; foreign and domestic speculators and swindlers; and rich and predatory money lenders.

They choose our leaders by fiat. They call the shots. We're led to believe we have a choice.

I believe Romney will take 2012. The Feds know Oboma has reached too far, too fast, and the tax slaves are frightened. The Reserve misjudged Americas mood. Not everyone saw Oboma as Christ returned - which was the plan.
In order to get the tax slaves producing and paying again, they need to be reassured. Oboma can't do that. Romney can.

Unless the Reserve fellows decide it's time for their complete take over of everything, and they're ready for complete, world wide chaos ( population reduction) , Oboma must lose.

The polls mean nothing at this point (obviously - only an idiot wouldn't see the damage Oboma has done to the globe) . They're designed to make it look like our elections are a competitions, but the "winner" is already chosen.

If Oboma wins, de-population is the goal.
If Romney wins, resetting the economy is the goal.

Things aren't always what they seem.

39 posted on 07/09/2012 11:39:02 AM PDT by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal")
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To: xzins

None of the polls, regardless of what they are showing mean a damn. The public doesn’t start focussing on the elections until after the conventions and Labor Day. Reagan was trailing Carter at this point.


40 posted on 07/09/2012 11:40:29 AM PDT by kabar
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To: PghBaldy

I agree it’s a virtual tie, and 3% is a common MOE. Nevertheless, if I were Romney I’d prefer that I had the higher number and that Obama had the lower.


41 posted on 07/09/2012 11:40:51 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins

I don’t give a hoot about how those polls are interpreted or how bad Obama is for our country, if Romney doesn’t get off of his dead ass very soon, in 119 days he will give the election to Obama. And THAT is probably the worst nightmare to ever face this country.

Romney needs big ideas/solutions and he needs to convince the American people of his vision.... and he’s NOT doing that, perhaps he just can’t.

Running out the clock will not work, not against Obama and the worthless bastards that support him.


42 posted on 07/09/2012 11:45:32 AM PDT by Gator113 (***YOU GAVE it to Obama. I would have voted for NEWT.~Just livin' life, my way~)
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To: kabar

I’ve watched these elections for years now, and I’ve learned not to ignore the polls. They certainly aren’t the end all and be all, but at the end, they’re very good.

What I’d really like to see are Romney’s own internal polls. As a businessman, he’d want accurate data. I’m betting he has a decent polling system doing.

Let me give him some good advice. Quit the rope-a-dope here in Ohio, and defend yourself...if you desire to win.


43 posted on 07/09/2012 11:48:55 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: Gator113

Last month he out-raised Obama by 30 million bucks. If he’d spend just that 30 million in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado, he’d be spending money that would pay long-term dividends.

So far his campaign looks eerily like John McCain’s did.


44 posted on 07/09/2012 11:52:33 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: Tennessee Nana

They’re behind him all the way, no matter what. And the way things are in this country, unfortunately he could win and just might. It’s not a lock either way. I myself am terrified at the prospect of 4 more years of this dude.


45 posted on 07/09/2012 11:57:55 AM PDT by b4its2late (A Liberal is a person who will give away everything he doesn't own.)
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To: kenmcg

I agree... being down about 2 points at this stage against a sitting President is actually GREAT! The debates are going to be big so those whom say Romney has no fight let us wait and see..... and for those who have little faith just think KAGAN and SOTOMOYER... want a couple more of those next time around....?


46 posted on 07/09/2012 12:00:59 PM PDT by Republic Rocker
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To: xzins
Photobucket
47 posted on 07/09/2012 12:01:58 PM PDT by baddog 219
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To: xzins

The fact that Romney is not on the attack, not doing things to get attention or buzz tells me that his internal polling shows him in a comfortable lead in the states that matter. He showed in the primary that if he was behind he could get nasty and get big. His conservative (in strategy not necessarily ideology) campaign is the sign of a guy who knows he can wait out the clock and win as long as he doesn’t do something stupid.


48 posted on 07/09/2012 12:03:41 PM PDT by azcap (Who is John Galt ? www.conservativeshirts.com)
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To: Wallace T.
Romney may be a moderate, like McCain and Dole, but he appears to be more driven than those two unsuccessful Republican candidates.

If only that were true, I might consider Romney. Romney takes "moderate" positions to places that even McCain and Dole wouldn't touch.

49 posted on 07/09/2012 12:04:57 PM PDT by CommerceComet (Obama vs. Romney - clear evidence that our nation has been judged by God and found wanting.)
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To: a fool in paradise
FORWARD. That's an "interesting" campaign slogan.

amish
50 posted on 07/09/2012 12:09:00 PM PDT by Foolsgold (L I B Lacking in Brains)
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