Battle for the White House (Real Clr Pltcs - Obama leads National Poll, Electoral College & Intrade)

Real Clear Politics ^ | 9 Jul 12 | RCP

[xzins]

Election 2012.....Obama....Romney....RCP Average

National Polls.....47.0.....44.4..........Obama +2.6
Electoral College...221......181
Intrade Odds.......56.1.....41.4

Battlegrounds.....Obama...Romney......RCP Average
Ohio..................46.2.....43.6.......Obama +2.6
Virginia..............47.2.....44.8.......Obama +2.4
Florida...............46.7.....45.0.......Obama +1.7
North Carolina........45.3.....47.3......Romney +2.0
Colorado..............47.2.....44.2.......Obama +3.0

[kenmcg]

This election is similar to the Reagan-Carter election of 1980. At this time the polls had Carter way ahead of
Reagan, but Reagan closed well and won in a landslide. Of course we didn’t have as many freeloaders then and Romney is no Reagan. Bit if Romney starts showing he’s not afraid of Obama he can pull it off. He’s got too many wimps on his staff andhis VP pick is critical.

[OldGoatCPO]

Wasn’t Intrade the one that had the SCOTUS ruling Mandate unconstitutional by huge numbers?

[comebacknewt]

I don’t think there is any doubt that Obama is ahead right now. He has the 45% entitlement class vote locked up. Romney hasn’t even fully secured his base yet.

The good news for Romney, is that Obambi seems stuck on 46 - 47% in most polls. That creates an opportunity for Romney to win. He just has to convince people he is a credible alternative.

His problem in recent weeks is that Obama and the MSM have been hammering him as being an out of touch “outsourcing pioneer”. To this point, Romney has done a terrible job of addressing that, and his favorables have taken a beating.

If Romney goes on the attack soon, he can still win this. If not, he can take a seat by McCain and Dole and dream about what might have been.

[donaldo]

Let’s face it gang, Romney doesn’t have a chance. Obama is style over substance, a man of the times for the times. Also there are more malleable morons voting than anytime in history. The inescapable conclusion - Obama wins, and there’s nothing that Romney can do to alter that.

[a fool in paradise]

FORWARD. That's an "interesting" campaign slogan.

Forward to what?

What is the END GOAL?

More Socialism?

A RETURN to the Constitutional foundations of this nation would be better.

Maybe if Obama is interested in Forwards, he should write one for "his" autobiography to disclose that names, places, and documents within may be BULLSTALIN.

[xzins]

If and when Mitt begins a vigorous self defense from the nonsense being hurled at him by Barack

They had this discussion on FoxNews someplace today, that the Republicans tend to hold their cash 'til the end for one big "shock and awe" campaign.

The talking head lady said that the problem with that was it gives the dems a chance to define the debate and the candidate in such a way that it's hard to recover. There was a clear sense that no one really liked the rope-a-dope strategy, that it gave away way to much ground.

The polls are saying that it correct. All I've heard here in Ohio for a coupla weeks is Obama ad after Obama ad and an occasional tweak of Obama by a pro-romney pac. In that time, Romney has lost a lead in Ohio.

[HiTech RedNeck]

stick that red neck out, be proud of it

[OldGoatCPO]

Broke my own rule and looked at the polls in question, those giving the highest difference (including FOX) had less than 1000 people and only did “RV” (registered voters)every one with a drivers license id a registered voter for Christ sake. Likely voters have a track record of voting in previous elections. RCP is so unscientific it is ridiculous. To make matters worse in every poll Obama’s numbers are with the margin of error. Not good for an imcumbent.

[OldGoatCPO]

Broke my own rule and looked at the polls in question, those giving the highest difference (including FOX) had less than 1000 people and only did “RV” (registered voters)every one with a drivers license is a registered voter for Christ sake. Likely voters have a track record of voting in previous elections. RCP is so unscientific it is ridiculous. To make matters worse in every poll Obama’s numbers are with the margin of error. Not good for an incumbent.

[kevcol]

yep,
.
yep,
yep,
yep,
& yep.

[xzins]

RCP has been a decent barometer the past few election cycles. It averages name polls with decent samples that use either registered or likely voters.

I think it’s still fair 4 months out to be using registered voter polls, but not for much more than another month or so. Registered are fully able to vote legally already, it’s just that not all of them will. The pollsters should be making strides in refining down to likely voters as these people indicate whether they will or won’t participate this time around.

[Wallace T.]

To be virtually even with the incumbent four months away from the election is not a bad place to be. Romney may be a moderate, like McCain and Dole, but he appears to be more driven than those two unsuccessful Republican candidates. He has no day job in the Senate to fall back on. The fact that Romney is outstripping Obama in fundraising is indicative that a lot of wealthy individuals in the moderate to conservative categories, especially in the financial sector, who sat out 2008 are betting on a Romney win. It appears much of Obama's funding is coming from the reliably leftist entertainment and media businesses and the unions.

Romney's victory is far from a slam dunk but the signs are encouraging. The Mormon vote could well place Nevada, Arizona, and Colorado in the red category. The defeat of the recall election for Scott Walker bodes well for a GOP win in Wisconsin. Whoever carries Ohio and Florida will win the overall election.

[xzins]

one with a drivers license is a registered voter for Christ sake

Not in Ohio. You MUST register to be a registered voter.

[PghBaldy]

Isn’t 3% a common margin of error? If it is, they are possibly tied.

[xzins]

Florida is a must win for Romney.

If Romney can pick off Michigan, then Ohio isn’t nearly as crucial.

[JPG]

Real Clear would do well to exclude outlier polls. They allowed that ridiculous Bloomberg poll into the mix which really screwed with the averages (in favor of Obama, of course).

[xzins]

I think they did. It’s basically a betting game.

In their defense, they sure weren’t alone. Everyone thought the individual mandage would sink ObamaCare. I thought so....I think even Pelosi and Reid thought so.

[listenhillary]

I don’t the the PAC’s have spoken yet.

July / August - vacation time, outside, not many watching TV.

[concerned about politics]

"He who controls communications controls the world."

Things are not always what they seem.

The MSM creates reality for us. They do what they're told, but I believe the world is starting to figure it out.

Who owns the Federal Reserve? Who are the unelected people in charge? Some people think that the Federal Reserve Banks are United States Government institutions. They are private monopolies which prey upon the people of these United States for the benefit of themselves and their foreign customers; foreign and domestic speculators and swindlers; and rich and predatory money lenders.

They choose our leaders by fiat. They call the shots. We're led to believe we have a choice.

I believe Romney will take 2012. The Feds know Oboma has reached too far, too fast, and the tax slaves are frightened. The Reserve misjudged Americas mood. Not everyone saw Oboma as Christ returned - which was the plan.
In order to get the tax slaves producing and paying again, they need to be reassured. Oboma can't do that. Romney can.

Unless the Reserve fellows decide it's time for their complete take over of everything, and they're ready for complete, world wide chaos ( population reduction) , Oboma must lose.

The polls mean nothing at this point (obviously - only an idiot wouldn't see the damage Oboma has done to the globe) . They're designed to make it look like our elections are a competitions, but the "winner" is already chosen.

If Oboma wins, de-population is the goal.
If Romney wins, resetting the economy is the goal.

Things aren't always what they seem.

[kabar]

None of the polls, regardless of what they are showing mean a damn. The public doesn’t start focussing on the elections until after the conventions and Labor Day. Reagan was trailing Carter at this point.