Posted on 07/09/2012 11:00:43 AM PDT by xzins
Election 2012.....Obama....Romney....RCP Average
National Polls.....47.0.....44.4..........Obama +2.6
Electoral College...221......181
Intrade Odds.......56.1.....41.4
Battlegrounds.....Obama...Romney......RCP Average
Ohio..................46.2.....43.6.......Obama +2.6
Virginia..............47.2.....44.8.......Obama +2.4
Florida...............46.7.....45.0.......Obama +1.7
North Carolina........45.3.....47.3......Romney +2.0
Colorado..............47.2.....44.2.......Obama +3.0
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
I agree it’s a virtual tie, and 3% is a common MOE. Nevertheless, if I were Romney I’d prefer that I had the higher number and that Obama had the lower.
I don’t give a hoot about how those polls are interpreted or how bad Obama is for our country, if Romney doesn’t get off of his dead ass very soon, in 119 days he will give the election to Obama. And THAT is probably the worst nightmare to ever face this country.
Romney needs big ideas/solutions and he needs to convince the American people of his vision.... and he’s NOT doing that, perhaps he just can’t.
Running out the clock will not work, not against Obama and the worthless bastards that support him.
I’ve watched these elections for years now, and I’ve learned not to ignore the polls. They certainly aren’t the end all and be all, but at the end, they’re very good.
What I’d really like to see are Romney’s own internal polls. As a businessman, he’d want accurate data. I’m betting he has a decent polling system doing.
Let me give him some good advice. Quit the rope-a-dope here in Ohio, and defend yourself...if you desire to win.
Last month he out-raised Obama by 30 million bucks. If he’d spend just that 30 million in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado, he’d be spending money that would pay long-term dividends.
So far his campaign looks eerily like John McCain’s did.
They’re behind him all the way, no matter what. And the way things are in this country, unfortunately he could win and just might. It’s not a lock either way. I myself am terrified at the prospect of 4 more years of this dude.
I agree... being down about 2 points at this stage against a sitting President is actually GREAT! The debates are going to be big so those whom say Romney has no fight let us wait and see..... and for those who have little faith just think KAGAN and SOTOMOYER... want a couple more of those next time around....?
The fact that Romney is not on the attack, not doing things to get attention or buzz tells me that his internal polling shows him in a comfortable lead in the states that matter. He showed in the primary that if he was behind he could get nasty and get big. His conservative (in strategy not necessarily ideology) campaign is the sign of a guy who knows he can wait out the clock and win as long as he doesn’t do something stupid.
If only that were true, I might consider Romney. Romney takes "moderate" positions to places that even McCain and Dole wouldn't touch.
I would like to see the internals for both candidates. I think Obama must have terrible internals given his frantic and scattered efforts. He has been outspending Romney 3 to 1 since the end of the GOP primaries. Obama has about $100 million more in his campaign chest than Romney. The fact that Obama has been below 50% in almost all the polls for a long time is not a good sign for an incumbent. Obama is losing among independents and he will be hard pressed to get anywhere near the 43% of the white vote he received in 2008.
Ohio will be critical, but other states like WI and MI could be in play this time around. And states like VA, NC, and IN will probably shift to Romney in 2012. VA is the one I am worried about along with FL. If Romney gets those two, I bleive he wins easily. Due to the changing demographics, VA will be close.
-PJ
Rule number 1: Never trust any poll that uses “Adults” or “Registered Voters” in their samples. They are NEVER accurate. The polls that use “Likely Voters” are the most accurate and should be followed.
Rule number 2: The percentage breakdown of republicans to democrats in the poll should be about equal (in the high 30’s). Many of these bogus polls have the dems oversampled by 10-15%! Again, that is not accurate and will skew the poll results in favor of the dems.
I believe the majority of the polls in the RCP poll violate these rules listed above.
Virginia..............47.2.....44.8.......Obama +2.4
Florida...............46.7.....45.0.......Obama +1.7
North Carolina........45.3.....47.3......Romney +2.0
Colorado..............47.2.....44.2.......Obama +3.0
In 2008 in the states above, the results were as follows:
Ohio---Obama 51.4--46.8
Virginia--Obama 52.6--46.3
Florida--Obama 50.9--48.1
North Carolina Obama 49.7--49.4
Colorado Obama 53.7--44.7
Looking at the numbers, I would say that Obama is not going to replicate the 2008 numbers in those states--not anywhere close.
Which conservative was that?
RV v. LV is the key to understanding these polls. Among LVs Romney is polling significantly stonger and probably is winning the PV and EC. Now consider that the Romney (or better put, the anti-0bama) LV is probably a certain voter. This means the the 0bama GOTV/voter fraud effort will have to run at peak to avoid defeat.
I agree, register voters should not be sampled after the Conventions.
These girls are looking at the "big screen" to see hemselves.
>> FORWARD. That’s an “interesting” campaign slogan.
Oh, it’s a SLOGAN?
I thought it was directions printed on the sign, so those silly ditzes would know which side to show.
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