Skip to comments.Top 10 Most Likely GOP Senate Pick-Ups
Posted on 07/10/2012 7:16:08 AM PDT by Qbert
Since the GOP is likely to lose Maine (Olympia Snowes seat) and have competitive races to defend seats in Massachusetts (Scott Brown) and Nevada (Dean Heller), they better hope to pickup five or six Democratic seats. Here are 10 seats currently held by the opposition that Republicans can win.
1. Nebraska (Open)
With the retirement of Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson in a solid red state, Nebraska is ripe for a Republican pick-up. The GOP nominated a relatively fresh face in Deb Fischer, a rancher and state senator since 2004, while Democrats reached back to the far past and are recycling former Nebraska governor and senator Bob Kerrey. A Rasmussen poll has Fischer up by 18 points over Kerrey, whose previous service to the state is mostly remembered for his romance with actress Debra Winger in the 1980s.
2. Wisconsin (Open)
Wisconsin broke hard for the Republicans in 2010, with the defeat of incumbent Sen. Russ Feingold by Ron Johnson and Scott Walker winning the governorship. Now with the drama of the Walker recall effort over, Republicans seemed poised to capitalize on a better political climate for conservatives in what was once a fairly reliable state for Democrats. Former Republican Gov. Tommy Thompson should have no trouble dispatching Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin in November.
3. Missouri (McCaskill)
Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill says she wont be attending the Democratic National Convention in Charlotteand with good cause, as she is in the fight of her political life. Republicans wont pick her opponent until an August primary but currently three of the candidates running to take on McCaskill are leading her in the latest Rasmussen poll, by margins ranging from 8 to 12 percentage points. Look for State Treasurer Sarah Steelman to win the primary and defeat McCaskill in November.
4. Montana (Tester)
Since defeating incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns in 2006, Rep. Jon Tester has consistently sided with President Obama. He voted for ObamaCare and the stimulus, is pro-choice, and favors global warming legislationall in a state, which McCain won by 2.2 percentage points. Tester was never that popular in the first place with margin of victory over Burns only 3,562 votes, or 50.4 percent of the total, and now his opponent, Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg, has opened up a modest lead in early polling.
5. North Dakota (Open)
Early polls show a close race between Democrat Heidi Heitkamp, the former state attorney general, and Republican Rep. Rick Berg, to replace retiring five-term Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad. But the state is as red as any, giving John McCain a six-point victory in 2008 over Barack Obama and, in 2010, when North Dakota voted to replace a another long-time retiring Democrat (four-termer Sen. Byron Dorgan), Republican John Hoeven cruised to a 54-point blowout victory.
6. Virginia (Open)
With Democrat Jim Webb stepping down after one term, Republicans have high hopes to retake the Virginia seat and both sides chose political heavyweights to compete. Former governor and former senator Republican George Allen, whose loss to Webb in 2006 was largely due to the Washington Post making a mountain out of macaca, will be facing former governor and former chairman of the Democratic National Committee Tim Kaine.
7. Florida (Nelson)
Likely Republican nominee Rep. Connie Mack IV is taking on two-term Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson and has narrowed Nelsons early polling lead to a virtual dead heat. Nelsons support for ObamaCare was highly unpopular among the large senior population, with two-thirds of voters over 65 opposing the measure. It also wont help Nelsons support among Jewish voters that a Muslim Brotherhood activist hosted a fundraiser for the senator last year.
8. Connecticut (Open)
The race for the Connecticut Senate seat of retiring Joseph Lieberman will likely shape up to be between Republican Linda McMahon and Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy. McMahon, the former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, has a fortune to help finance her campaign, spending over $50 million of her own money on a losing 2010 Senate bid. McMahon has momentum at the moment in the latest polling.
9. New Mexico (Open)
Competing for Sen. Jeff Bingamans seat will be former Republican Rep. Heather Wilson and Democratic Rep. Martin Heinrich. Heinrich has a modest lead at the moment but all bets are off following the Supreme Courts decision on neighboring Arizonas immigration law, making the issue front and center in this border state.
10. Michigan (Stabenow)
Normally Sen. Debbie Stabenow would be a hard incumbent to defeat, she is up by some 12 points in various poll currently. But these are unusual times as Michigan is suddenly a battleground state in the presidential race. After trailing by double-digits earlier in the campaign, Mitt Romney has essentially pulled even with Obama. It will be an uphill a battle, but Romney coattails could bring former Rep. Peter Hoekstra into the Senate.
The odds seem pretty good for the Republicans.
GOP will lose Maine. Hold Mass and NV. And pick up Nebraska, Wisconsin, Missouri, Montana, and North Dakota. Virginia and Florida will be very close. I think Dems win the others (Michigan, New Mexico, and CT).
RCP has the Senate as 47-45 Dems with eight tossups, and we need to win 6 of those to get 51.
RCP tossups, with incumbents listed:
FL: Nelson (D)
MA: Brown (R)
MO: McCaskill (D)
MT: Tester (D)
NV: Heller (R)
ND: Open (D)
VA: Open (D)
WI: Open (D)
Vote, vote, vote!
Bu-bye Claire McCackle.
McCaskill is dead in Mo. When Obamacare was upheld by the USSC it was the last nail in her coffin. She is just going through the motions now.
So by your analysis, you have the R’s at 51, the Dems at 47, with two tossups (VA, FL).
We need more than a 51-49 margin. The globalists can always get one to jump like Jumpin Jim Jeffords or Specter the Defector did.
The GOP needs to make the public’s anger at Obamcare a key element of these races- if they do, I think their pick-ups may be even bigger. Now is the best (and maybe only realistic) time to repeal this monstrosity- this isn’t just any old election year.
Should be a poll out soon on Steelman/Brunner/Akin vs. Ma. But Steelman had 12 point lead in last one-over Ma. Others less so.
Sarah Steelman Rocks!!!
Curious how Tester got elected in the first place? He rates “F” from Gun Owners of America! One has to really earn an”F.” He could not have done this over night. And in a western/pro-RKBA/pro-hunting state no less! I realize Burns had some legal/ethics questions (later tossed) I just never understood how Tester got elected in the first place...