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Top 10 Most Likely GOP Senate Pick-Ups
Human Events ^ | 7/7/2012 | Human Events

Posted on 07/10/2012 7:16:08 AM PDT by Qbert

Since the GOP is likely to lose Maine (Olympia Snowe’s seat) and have competitive races to defend seats in Massachusetts (Scott Brown) and Nevada (Dean Heller), they better hope to pickup five or six Democratic seats. Here are 10 seats currently held by the opposition that Republicans can win.

1. Nebraska (Open)

With the retirement of Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson in a solid red state, Nebraska is ripe for a Republican pick-up. The GOP nominated a relatively fresh face in Deb Fischer, a rancher and state senator since 2004, while Democrats reached back to the far past and are recycling former Nebraska governor and senator Bob Kerrey. A Rasmussen poll has Fischer up by 18 points over Kerrey, whose previous service to the state is mostly remembered for his romance with actress Debra Winger in the 1980s.

2. Wisconsin (Open)

Wisconsin broke hard for the Republicans in 2010, with the defeat of incumbent Sen. Russ Feingold by Ron Johnson and Scott Walker winning the governorship. Now with the drama of the Walker recall effort over, Republicans seemed poised to capitalize on a better political climate for conservatives in what was once a fairly reliable state for Democrats. Former Republican Gov. Tommy Thompson should have no trouble dispatching Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin in November.

3. Missouri (McCaskill)

Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill says she won’t be attending the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte—and with good cause, as she is in the fight of her political life. Republicans won’t pick her opponent until an August primary but currently three of the candidates running to take on McCaskill are leading her in the latest Rasmussen poll, by margins ranging from 8 to 12 percentage points. Look for State Treasurer Sarah Steelman to win the primary and defeat McCaskill in November.

4. Montana (Tester)

Since defeating incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns in 2006, Rep. Jon Tester has consistently sided with President Obama. He voted for ObamaCare and the stimulus, is pro-choice, and favors global warming legislation—all in a state, which McCain won by 2.2 percentage points. Tester was never that popular in the first place with margin of victory over Burns only 3,562 votes, or 50.4 percent of the total, and now his opponent, Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg, has opened up a modest lead in early polling.

5. North Dakota (Open)

Early polls show a close race between Democrat Heidi Heitkamp, the former state attorney general, and Republican Rep. Rick Berg, to replace retiring five-term Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad. But the state is as red as any, giving John McCain a six-point victory in 2008 over Barack Obama and, in 2010, when North Dakota voted to replace a another long-time retiring Democrat (four-termer Sen. Byron Dorgan), Republican John Hoeven cruised to a 54-point blowout victory.

6. Virginia (Open)

With Democrat Jim Webb stepping down after one term, Republicans have high hopes to retake the Virginia seat and both sides chose political heavyweights to compete. Former governor and former senator Republican George Allen, whose loss to Webb in 2006 was largely due to the Washington Post making a mountain out of macaca, will be facing former governor and former chairman of the Democratic National Committee Tim Kaine.

7. Florida (Nelson)

Likely Republican nominee Rep. Connie Mack IV is taking on two-term Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson and has narrowed Nelson’s early polling lead to a virtual dead heat. Nelson’s support for ObamaCare was highly unpopular among the large senior population, with two-thirds of voters over 65 opposing the measure. It also won’t help Nelson’s support among Jewish voters that a Muslim Brotherhood activist hosted a fundraiser for the senator last year.

8. Connecticut (Open)

The race for the Connecticut Senate seat of retiring Joseph Lieberman will likely shape up to be between Republican Linda McMahon and Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy. McMahon, the former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, has a fortune to help finance her campaign, spending over $50 million of her own money on a losing 2010 Senate bid. McMahon has momentum at the moment in the latest polling.

9. New Mexico (Open)

Competing for Sen. Jeff Bingaman’s seat will be former Republican Rep. Heather Wilson and Democratic Rep. Martin Heinrich. Heinrich has a modest lead at the moment but all bets are off following the Supreme Court’s decision on neighboring Arizona’s immigration law, making the issue front and center in this border state.

10. Michigan (Stabenow)

Normally Sen. Debbie Stabenow would be a hard incumbent to defeat, she is up by some 12 points in various poll currently. But these are unusual times as Michigan is suddenly a battleground state in the presidential race. After trailing by double-digits earlier in the campaign, Mitt Romney has essentially pulled even with Obama. It will be an uphill a battle, but Romney coattails could bring former Rep. Peter Hoekstra into the Senate.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Michigan; US: New Mexico
KEYWORDS: billnelson; conniemack; debbiestabenow; senate2012; timkaine

1 posted on 07/10/2012 7:16:14 AM PDT by Qbert
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To: Qbert

The odds seem pretty good for the Republicans.


2 posted on 07/10/2012 7:23:02 AM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: Qbert

GOP will lose Maine. Hold Mass and NV. And pick up Nebraska, Wisconsin, Missouri, Montana, and North Dakota. Virginia and Florida will be very close. I think Dems win the others (Michigan, New Mexico, and CT).


3 posted on 07/10/2012 7:24:46 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: Qbert

RCP has the Senate as 47-45 Dems with eight tossups, and we need to win 6 of those to get 51.

RCP tossups, with incumbents listed:

FL: Nelson (D)
MA: Brown (R)
MO: McCaskill (D)
MT: Tester (D)
NV: Heller (R)
ND: Open (D)
VA: Open (D)
WI: Open (D)

Vote, vote, vote!


4 posted on 07/10/2012 7:29:49 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2
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To: Eccl 10:2
Vote, vote, vote!

How about just "Vote!"

We aren't Democrats after all.
5 posted on 07/10/2012 7:33:00 AM PDT by DaveInDallas
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To: Qbert

Bump


6 posted on 07/10/2012 7:36:01 AM PDT by Iowa Granny (Clintion ruined a dress, but Obama ruined a Nation.)
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To: Qbert

Bump


7 posted on 07/10/2012 7:36:24 AM PDT by Iowa Granny (Clintion ruined a dress, but Obama ruined a Nation.)
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To: DaveInDallas

Bu-bye Claire McCackle.


8 posted on 07/10/2012 7:36:57 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks
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To: Qbert

Bump


9 posted on 07/10/2012 7:37:03 AM PDT by Iowa Granny (Clintion ruined a dress, but Obama ruined a Nation.)
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To: Qbert

Bump


10 posted on 07/10/2012 7:37:18 AM PDT by Iowa Granny (Clintion ruined a dress, but Obama ruined a Nation.)
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To: Qbert

Bump


11 posted on 07/10/2012 7:37:24 AM PDT by Iowa Granny (Clintion ruined a dress, but Obama ruined a Nation.)
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To: Qbert

Bump


12 posted on 07/10/2012 7:38:20 AM PDT by Iowa Granny (Clintion ruined a dress, but Obama ruined a Nation.)
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To: Eccl 10:2

McCaskill is dead in Mo. When Obamacare was upheld by the USSC it was the last nail in her coffin. She is just going through the motions now.


13 posted on 07/10/2012 7:38:56 AM PDT by WILLIALAL
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To: nhwingut

So by your analysis, you have the R’s at 51, the Dems at 47, with two tossups (VA, FL).

We need more than a 51-49 margin. The globalists can always get one to jump like Jumpin Jim Jeffords or Specter the Defector did.


14 posted on 07/10/2012 7:40:06 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2
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To: Qbert
I think Tester is slightly ahead in Montana. Romney will probably get by but he is not helping the Senate race. I will never vote for Romney and there are alot of folks up here like me..the question will be how many of us will get out and vote down ticket...
15 posted on 07/10/2012 7:42:25 AM PDT by montanajoe
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To: nhwingut

The GOP needs to make the public’s anger at Obamcare a key element of these races- if they do, I think their pick-ups may be even bigger. Now is the best (and maybe only realistic) time to repeal this monstrosity- this isn’t just any old election year.


16 posted on 07/10/2012 7:49:09 AM PDT by Qbert ("The best defense against usurpatory government is an assertive citizenry" - William F. Buckley, Jr.)
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To: WILLIALAL
It's interesting that they're calling the primary and the election for Steelman...
17 posted on 07/10/2012 7:52:29 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks
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To: Eric in the Ozarks

Should be a poll out soon on Steelman/Brunner/Akin vs. Ma. But Steelman had 12 point lead in last one-over Ma. Others less so.


18 posted on 07/10/2012 8:00:28 AM PDT by donozark (Col. C.Beckwith:I'd rather go down the river with 7 studs than with a hundred shitheads.)
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To: Qbert

Sarah Steelman Rocks!!!


19 posted on 07/10/2012 8:02:40 AM PDT by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: montanajoe

Curious how Tester got elected in the first place? He rates “F” from Gun Owners of America! One has to really earn an”F.” He could not have done this over night. And in a western/pro-RKBA/pro-hunting state no less! I realize Burns had some legal/ethics questions (later tossed) I just never understood how Tester got elected in the first place...


20 posted on 07/10/2012 8:06:21 AM PDT by donozark (Col. C.Beckwith:I'd rather go down the river with 7 studs than with a hundred shitheads.)
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To: nhwingut
I would put Hawaii before Conn. Not likely but still within the realm of probability.
21 posted on 07/10/2012 8:06:35 AM PDT by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: CPT Clay

“I would put Hawaii before Conn. Not likely but still within the realm of probability. “

You mean the Japanese People’s Republic of Hawaii? I don’t think that Hawaii has ever had Senators other that A Caca or In No Way have they?


22 posted on 07/10/2012 8:18:37 AM PDT by vette6387
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To: CPT Clay
Sarah Steelman Rocks!!!

I hate be the bearer of bad news you but your Texas vote will not count for much in a Missouri race.

23 posted on 07/10/2012 8:19:32 AM PDT by TYVets (Pure-Gas.org ..... ethanol free gasoline by state and city)
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To: Qbert

“”Since the GOP is likely to lose Maine (Olympia Snowe’s seat””

She was never a Republican anyway. She just managed to fool the voters....


24 posted on 07/10/2012 8:21:27 AM PDT by Thank You Rush
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To: donozark

I thought Brunner was leading but Sarah is OK by me (plus she’s a looker.)


25 posted on 07/10/2012 8:23:37 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks
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To: Eccl 10:2
We need more than a 51-49 margin. The globalists can always get one to jump like Jumpin Jim Jeffords or Specter the Defector did.

Yep, and with the Dems taking Snowe's seat, you can bet Susan Collins will be a prime candidate to jump to try and protect her own A$$.

26 posted on 07/10/2012 8:27:16 AM PDT by commish (Freedom tastes sweetest to those who have fought to preserve it.)
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To: Eric in the Ozarks
Bu-bye Claire McCackle.

She's already in whine mode. She knows it's over.

27 posted on 07/10/2012 8:30:27 AM PDT by Uncle Chip
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To: nhwingut; GOPsterinMA; NautiNurse; StarFan
GOP will lose Maine.

That's too bad, although uber-RINO Snowe was like a democRAT anyway. Is the GOP candidate for Senate in Maine that bad? Maine elected a very conservative governor (Paul LePage) in 2010... is there any hope for Maine?

There's no way any Republican will win our open Senate seat in The People's Socialist Republik of Connecticut, regardless of how much money WWE exec Linda McMahon has. Connecticut is lost - the only hope at this point for CT residents is to move out.

Expect pro-ObamaCare, pro-union, pro-abortion, etc. Christopher Murphy (currently US Congressman, 5th district) to be the next US Senator from CT. And he is young... only 38. He'll be a fixture in the Senate for decades to come.

28 posted on 07/10/2012 8:32:22 AM PDT by nutmeg (I'm with Sarah Palin: Anybody But Obama 2012)
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To: Eric in the Ozarks
Last poll I have (Rasmussen) has Steelman up 12, Brunner up 10, Akin up 8 over Ma McCaskill. But it is dated June 7. I think Brunner had an internal poll that showed him leading. But that is what it is.

I would vote for any of the three. Just known S. Steelman longer.better. Heard her speak in May while traveling with Tea Party Express (who endorsed her). Actually I'd vote for a gut shot dog over Ma McCaskill!

29 posted on 07/10/2012 8:37:37 AM PDT by donozark (Col. C.Beckwith:I'd rather go down the river with 7 studs than with a hundred shitheads.)
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To: donozark

Claire has been remodeling her lake house of late.
Probably ready to retire on her nice, fat federal pension.


30 posted on 07/10/2012 8:44:01 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks
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To: nhwingut

Right now, Josh Mandel is 4-6 behind Sherrod Brown in OH, but has only upside as 40% of Ohioans don’t know him. Brown is stuck @ 45%, so OH is winnable.


31 posted on 07/10/2012 8:47:12 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: nutmeg

I was reading a Quinnipiac Poll yesterday that showed McMahon within 3 points of Murphy? Think it posted here?


32 posted on 07/10/2012 8:52:58 AM PDT by donozark (Col. C.Beckwith:I'd rather go down the river with 7 studs than with a hundred shitheads.)
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To: commish

You never know, but I don’t think she’d have reason to do that. In 2008 she won with 61% of the vote with the headwinds against her as a Republican in a left leaning state and the top of the ticket going heavily in the opposite direction.


33 posted on 07/10/2012 8:53:23 AM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: Eric in the Ozarks; donozark; CPT Clay; WILLIALAL
It's interesting that they're calling the primary and the election for Steelman...

Surprising to me as well.

Akin/Brunner/Steelman polled 50% or 51% with McCaskel in the low 40's against each of them.

Akin pro gun, conservative. A member of the house who got 0bama's panties in a wad gets my vote

Brunner with his lack of experience and the donation of $10,000 to the wacko Humane Farming Association doesn't impress me.

Steelman has been banging around Jeff City too long and 100% of her ads are negative. No vote here for her..

34 posted on 07/10/2012 8:56:52 AM PDT by TYVets (Pure-Gas.org ..... ethanol free gasoline by state and city)
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To: LS

Ohio is very winnable. I think Sherrod is doomed.


35 posted on 07/10/2012 9:10:25 AM PDT by bigcat32
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To: commish

Yep, and with the Dems taking Snowe’s seat, you can bet Susan Collins will be a prime candidate to jump to try and protect her own A$$.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Agreed. She was first on my list when I had this in mind.


36 posted on 07/10/2012 9:19:29 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2
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To: donozark

He was elected the usual way. He ran as a Republican and was protected by the Lee Enterprises papers. The one thousand registered voters on each of the reservations cast five thousand votes for him.
The Democrat candidate for Lieutenant Governor in Montana lost $23 million from his Department of Military Affairs.


37 posted on 07/10/2012 9:47:13 AM PDT by blueunicorn6 ("A crack shot and a good dancer")
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To: bigcat32

Doomed is too strong, and he’s been slippery. So far, Mandel has been in total fundraising mode.


38 posted on 07/10/2012 11:13:14 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Qbert

Good report, thanks for posting.

Fingers crossed for a strong close against the Dhimmis.


39 posted on 07/10/2012 11:15:59 AM PDT by SharpRightTurn ( White, black, and red all over--America's affirmative action, metrosexual president.)
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To: Qbert

Missouri, Montana, and Florida are the ones to watch. Wins there along with an increase in conservative numbers in the House would limit liberal excesses in congress and could tie the hands of any president who strays from his role defined by our Constitution.


40 posted on 07/10/2012 12:50:24 PM PDT by jody2 (Legislature veto governor's bills)
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To: nutmeg; nhwingut; NautiNurse; StarFan; Impy
Snowe is human garbage, period.

“Is the GOP candidate for Senate in Maine that bad?”
No.

“Maine elected a very conservative governor (Paul LePage) in 2010... is there any hope for Maine?”

There is. LePage won in a three way race, which the GOP Senate candidate could do as well.

“Connecticut is lost - the only hope at this point for CT residents is to move out.”

Can I call you MA-South?

41 posted on 07/10/2012 7:13:32 PM PDT by GOPsterinMA (The Glove don't fit.)
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To: nutmeg; nhwingut; GOPsterinMA; campaignPete R-CT; AuH2ORepublican; Clintonfatigued; randita

The Republican in Maine Charlie Summers sounds pretty good to me.

The problem is douchebag Angus Queen is personally popular and the weak rat is taking very little support from him.

I think Summers has a shot but it doesn’t look good right now.


42 posted on 07/10/2012 7:49:11 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Impy; All

Nice assessment!


43 posted on 07/10/2012 8:01:13 PM PDT by GOPsterinMA (The Glove don't fit.)
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To: Impy

glad somebody is doing the politics while I am wasting my entire day working. What a waste of time. Work that is.


44 posted on 07/10/2012 11:43:53 PM PDT by campaignPete R-CT (and we are still campaigning for local conservatives in central CT.)
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To: TYVets

I hate be the bearer of bad news you but your Texas vote will not count for much in a Missouri race.

Hate it and suck on it too.


45 posted on 07/11/2012 2:51:38 PM PDT by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: campaignPete R-CT

You said it.


46 posted on 07/11/2012 3:23:39 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: GOPsterinMA; campaignPete R-CT; AuH2ORepublican; Clintonfatigued; randita; Diana in Wisconsin; ...

News in Wisconsin, 3 recent polls have shown Businessman Eric Hovde has emerged as Tommy Thompson’s main competition for the nomination. 1 of the 3 (by PPP) has Hovde leading him by 2 points.

PPP also has Hovde doing the same as TT against the dykeocrat. Leading her by 1 point while they have TT tied with her (which I don’t believe, TT would beat her, period, the last Rasmussen a month ago had him in a curb stomp)

Another Ron Johnson, or a foolish risk?


47 posted on 07/11/2012 3:45:35 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: nhwingut
Florida will be very close.

New Rasmussen: Connie Mack 46%, Bill Nelson 37%

48 posted on 07/11/2012 3:54:51 PM PDT by M. Thatcher
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To: Qbert
7. Florida (Nelson) Likely Republican nominee Rep. Connie Mack IV is taking on two-term Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson and has narrowed Nelson’s early polling lead to a virtual dead heat.

Rasmussen poll: Connie Mack 46%, Bill Nelson 37%

49 posted on 07/11/2012 3:58:14 PM PDT by M. Thatcher
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To: Qbert; LegendHasIt; Rogle; leapfrog0202; Santa Fe_Conservative; DesertDreamer; OneWingedShark; ...

NM list PING!

I may not PING for all New Mexico articles. To see New Mexico articles by topic click here: New Mexico Topics

To see NM articles by keyword, click here:New Mexico Keywords

To see the NM Message Page, click here: New Mexico Messages

(The NM list is available on my FR homepage for anyone to use. Let me know if you wish to be added or removed from the list.)

50 posted on 07/12/2012 8:17:35 AM PDT by CedarDave
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