Skip to comments.Top 10 Most Likely GOP Senate Pick-Ups
Posted on 07/10/2012 7:16:08 AM PDT by Qbert
Since the GOP is likely to lose Maine (Olympia Snowes seat) and have competitive races to defend seats in Massachusetts (Scott Brown) and Nevada (Dean Heller), they better hope to pickup five or six Democratic seats. Here are 10 seats currently held by the opposition that Republicans can win.
1. Nebraska (Open)
With the retirement of Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson in a solid red state, Nebraska is ripe for a Republican pick-up. The GOP nominated a relatively fresh face in Deb Fischer, a rancher and state senator since 2004, while Democrats reached back to the far past and are recycling former Nebraska governor and senator Bob Kerrey. A Rasmussen poll has Fischer up by 18 points over Kerrey, whose previous service to the state is mostly remembered for his romance with actress Debra Winger in the 1980s.
2. Wisconsin (Open)
Wisconsin broke hard for the Republicans in 2010, with the defeat of incumbent Sen. Russ Feingold by Ron Johnson and Scott Walker winning the governorship. Now with the drama of the Walker recall effort over, Republicans seemed poised to capitalize on a better political climate for conservatives in what was once a fairly reliable state for Democrats. Former Republican Gov. Tommy Thompson should have no trouble dispatching Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin in November.
3. Missouri (McCaskill)
Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill says she wont be attending the Democratic National Convention in Charlotteand with good cause, as she is in the fight of her political life. Republicans wont pick her opponent until an August primary but currently three of the candidates running to take on McCaskill are leading her in the latest Rasmussen poll, by margins ranging from 8 to 12 percentage points. Look for State Treasurer Sarah Steelman to win the primary and defeat McCaskill in November.
4. Montana (Tester)
Since defeating incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns in 2006, Rep. Jon Tester has consistently sided with President Obama. He voted for ObamaCare and the stimulus, is pro-choice, and favors global warming legislationall in a state, which McCain won by 2.2 percentage points. Tester was never that popular in the first place with margin of victory over Burns only 3,562 votes, or 50.4 percent of the total, and now his opponent, Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg, has opened up a modest lead in early polling.
5. North Dakota (Open)
Early polls show a close race between Democrat Heidi Heitkamp, the former state attorney general, and Republican Rep. Rick Berg, to replace retiring five-term Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad. But the state is as red as any, giving John McCain a six-point victory in 2008 over Barack Obama and, in 2010, when North Dakota voted to replace a another long-time retiring Democrat (four-termer Sen. Byron Dorgan), Republican John Hoeven cruised to a 54-point blowout victory.
6. Virginia (Open)
With Democrat Jim Webb stepping down after one term, Republicans have high hopes to retake the Virginia seat and both sides chose political heavyweights to compete. Former governor and former senator Republican George Allen, whose loss to Webb in 2006 was largely due to the Washington Post making a mountain out of macaca, will be facing former governor and former chairman of the Democratic National Committee Tim Kaine.
7. Florida (Nelson)
Likely Republican nominee Rep. Connie Mack IV is taking on two-term Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson and has narrowed Nelsons early polling lead to a virtual dead heat. Nelsons support for ObamaCare was highly unpopular among the large senior population, with two-thirds of voters over 65 opposing the measure. It also wont help Nelsons support among Jewish voters that a Muslim Brotherhood activist hosted a fundraiser for the senator last year.
8. Connecticut (Open)
The race for the Connecticut Senate seat of retiring Joseph Lieberman will likely shape up to be between Republican Linda McMahon and Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy. McMahon, the former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, has a fortune to help finance her campaign, spending over $50 million of her own money on a losing 2010 Senate bid. McMahon has momentum at the moment in the latest polling.
9. New Mexico (Open)
Competing for Sen. Jeff Bingamans seat will be former Republican Rep. Heather Wilson and Democratic Rep. Martin Heinrich. Heinrich has a modest lead at the moment but all bets are off following the Supreme Courts decision on neighboring Arizonas immigration law, making the issue front and center in this border state.
10. Michigan (Stabenow)
Normally Sen. Debbie Stabenow would be a hard incumbent to defeat, she is up by some 12 points in various poll currently. But these are unusual times as Michigan is suddenly a battleground state in the presidential race. After trailing by double-digits earlier in the campaign, Mitt Romney has essentially pulled even with Obama. It will be an uphill a battle, but Romney coattails could bring former Rep. Peter Hoekstra into the Senate.
The odds seem pretty good for the Republicans.
GOP will lose Maine. Hold Mass and NV. And pick up Nebraska, Wisconsin, Missouri, Montana, and North Dakota. Virginia and Florida will be very close. I think Dems win the others (Michigan, New Mexico, and CT).
RCP has the Senate as 47-45 Dems with eight tossups, and we need to win 6 of those to get 51.
RCP tossups, with incumbents listed:
FL: Nelson (D)
MA: Brown (R)
MO: McCaskill (D)
MT: Tester (D)
NV: Heller (R)
ND: Open (D)
VA: Open (D)
WI: Open (D)
Vote, vote, vote!
Bu-bye Claire McCackle.
McCaskill is dead in Mo. When Obamacare was upheld by the USSC it was the last nail in her coffin. She is just going through the motions now.
So by your analysis, you have the R’s at 51, the Dems at 47, with two tossups (VA, FL).
We need more than a 51-49 margin. The globalists can always get one to jump like Jumpin Jim Jeffords or Specter the Defector did.
The GOP needs to make the public’s anger at Obamcare a key element of these races- if they do, I think their pick-ups may be even bigger. Now is the best (and maybe only realistic) time to repeal this monstrosity- this isn’t just any old election year.
Should be a poll out soon on Steelman/Brunner/Akin vs. Ma. But Steelman had 12 point lead in last one-over Ma. Others less so.
Sarah Steelman Rocks!!!
Curious how Tester got elected in the first place? He rates “F” from Gun Owners of America! One has to really earn an”F.” He could not have done this over night. And in a western/pro-RKBA/pro-hunting state no less! I realize Burns had some legal/ethics questions (later tossed) I just never understood how Tester got elected in the first place...
“I would put Hawaii before Conn. Not likely but still within the realm of probability. “
You mean the Japanese People’s Republic of Hawaii? I don’t think that Hawaii has ever had Senators other that A Caca or In No Way have they?
I hate be the bearer of bad news you but your Texas vote will not count for much in a Missouri race.
“”Since the GOP is likely to lose Maine (Olympia Snowes seat””
She was never a Republican anyway. She just managed to fool the voters....
I thought Brunner was leading but Sarah is OK by me (plus she’s a looker.)
Yep, and with the Dems taking Snowe's seat, you can bet Susan Collins will be a prime candidate to jump to try and protect her own A$$.
She's already in whine mode. She knows it's over.
That's too bad, although uber-RINO Snowe was like a democRAT anyway. Is the GOP candidate for Senate in Maine that bad? Maine elected a very conservative governor (Paul LePage) in 2010... is there any hope for Maine?
There's no way any Republican will win our open Senate seat in The People's Socialist Republik of Connecticut, regardless of how much money WWE exec Linda McMahon has. Connecticut is lost - the only hope at this point for CT residents is to move out.
Expect pro-ObamaCare, pro-union, pro-abortion, etc. Christopher Murphy (currently US Congressman, 5th district) to be the next US Senator from CT. And he is young... only 38. He'll be a fixture in the Senate for decades to come.
I would vote for any of the three. Just known S. Steelman longer.better. Heard her speak in May while traveling with Tea Party Express (who endorsed her). Actually I'd vote for a gut shot dog over Ma McCaskill!
Claire has been remodeling her lake house of late.
Probably ready to retire on her nice, fat federal pension.
Right now, Josh Mandel is 4-6 behind Sherrod Brown in OH, but has only upside as 40% of Ohioans don’t know him. Brown is stuck @ 45%, so OH is winnable.
I was reading a Quinnipiac Poll yesterday that showed McMahon within 3 points of Murphy? Think it posted here?
You never know, but I don’t think she’d have reason to do that. In 2008 she won with 61% of the vote with the headwinds against her as a Republican in a left leaning state and the top of the ticket going heavily in the opposite direction.
Surprising to me as well.
Akin/Brunner/Steelman polled 50% or 51% with McCaskel in the low 40's against each of them.
Akin pro gun, conservative. A member of the house who got 0bama's panties in a wad gets my vote
Brunner with his lack of experience and the donation of $10,000 to the wacko Humane Farming Association doesn't impress me.
Steelman has been banging around Jeff City too long and 100% of her ads are negative. No vote here for her..
Ohio is very winnable. I think Sherrod is doomed.
Yep, and with the Dems taking Snowe’s seat, you can bet Susan Collins will be a prime candidate to jump to try and protect her own A$$.
Agreed. She was first on my list when I had this in mind.
He was elected the usual way. He ran as a Republican and was protected by the Lee Enterprises papers. The one thousand registered voters on each of the reservations cast five thousand votes for him.
The Democrat candidate for Lieutenant Governor in Montana lost $23 million from his Department of Military Affairs.
Doomed is too strong, and he’s been slippery. So far, Mandel has been in total fundraising mode.
Good report, thanks for posting.
Fingers crossed for a strong close against the Dhimmis.
Missouri, Montana, and Florida are the ones to watch. Wins there along with an increase in conservative numbers in the House would limit liberal excesses in congress and could tie the hands of any president who strays from his role defined by our Constitution.
“Is the GOP candidate for Senate in Maine that bad?”
“Maine elected a very conservative governor (Paul LePage) in 2010... is there any hope for Maine?”
There is. LePage won in a three way race, which the GOP Senate candidate could do as well.
“Connecticut is lost - the only hope at this point for CT residents is to move out.”
Can I call you MA-South?
The Republican in Maine Charlie Summers sounds pretty good to me.
The problem is douchebag Angus Queen is personally popular and the weak rat is taking very little support from him.
I think Summers has a shot but it doesn’t look good right now.
glad somebody is doing the politics while I am wasting my entire day working. What a waste of time. Work that is.
I hate be the bearer of bad news you but your Texas vote will not count for much in a Missouri race.
Hate it and suck on it too.
You said it.
News in Wisconsin, 3 recent polls have shown Businessman Eric Hovde has emerged as Tommy Thompson’s main competition for the nomination. 1 of the 3 (by PPP) has Hovde leading him by 2 points.
PPP also has Hovde doing the same as TT against the dykeocrat. Leading her by 1 point while they have TT tied with her (which I don’t believe, TT would beat her, period, the last Rasmussen a month ago had him in a curb stomp)
Another Ron Johnson, or a foolish risk?
New Rasmussen: Connie Mack 46%, Bill Nelson 37%
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