That was a good one pardner!
Posted on 07/12/2012 1:38:30 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
OVERVIEW
Despite the stagnant economy and broad dissatisfaction with national conditions, Barack Obama holds a significant lead over Mitt Romney. Currently, Obama is favored by a 50% to 43% margin among registered voters nationwide. Obama has led by at least a slim margin in every poll this year, and there is no clear trend in either candidate’s support since Romney wrapped up the GOP nomination.
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted June 28-July 9, 2012 among 2,973 adults, including 2,373 registered voters, finds that Romney has not seized the advantage as the candidate best able to improve the economy. In fact, he has lost ground on this issue over the past month.
The Supreme Court’s recent ruling on the 2010 Affordable Care Act appears to have had little effect on the 2012 race. But the decision has had a substantial impact on views of the court itself.
About half of Americans (51%) express a favorable opinion of the court, while 37% have an unfavorable view, up eight points since April and the highest percentage expressing an unfavorable opinion in a trend dating to 1985. The more negative view of the court is largely being driven by Republicans: Three months ago, Republicans viewed the Supreme Court favorably by a 56% to 25% margin. Today, they view the court unfavorably by a 51% to 38% margin.
The presidential campaign’s dynamics have changed little in recent months, despite the court’s high-profile health care ruling, a series of subpar job reports and increased campaign activity on the part of both candidates. Independent voters remain evenly divided, 46% support Romney while 45% back Obama. Nearly identical majorities of Democrats (88%) and Republicans (89%) support their party’s candidate. Obama’s lead arises from the Democratic Party’s continuing advantage in party identification among registered voters.
While Romney has nearly uniform support from his base, he continues to struggle in building enthusiasm. Just 34% of Romney voters support him strongly, compared with 64% of Obama’s backers. Yet this lack of enthusiasm does not mean that Republican voters are disengaged. Seven-in-ten Romney supporters say they have given quite a lot of thought to the election, compared with 62% of Obama supporters. This gap has remained consistent throughout the year.
The electorate remains deeply unhappy with the way things are going in the country. Just 28% of registered voters say they are satisfied with national conditions, while two-thirds (67%) are dissatisfied, which is largely unchanged from recent months.
The poor job reports have not gone unnoticed by the public: 51% say they are hearing mostly bad news about the job situation, and 40% say the overall economic news is mostly bad. However, these evaluations are no worse than they were a month ago, and are not having a negative effect on impressions of Obama’s performance. At 50%, his current job approval rating is actually up slightly from 47% last month and in positive territory for the first time since March.
The job situation remains the number-one issue for voters in this campaign. Neither candidate has a clear advantage on this issue: 46% say Romney and 42% say Obama can do a better job improving the job situation.
More generally, Mitt Romney has lost ground over the past month on the issue of the economy. The eight-point advantage he held in June as the candidate better able to improve the economy has now flipped, with 48% saying Obama can better improve economic conditions, while 42% favor Romney.
Of 12 issues tested, Romney is seen as stronger than Obama on only one – reducing the federal budget deficit – while Obama has the edge on eight. By two-to-one (60%-30%) Obama is seen as the candidate who would better deal with the problems of poor people. By a 50% to 36% margin, more voters say Obama better reflects their view on social issues like abortion and gay rights. Obama also holds 12-point leads as the candidate better able to defend against terrorist attacks and deal with the nation’s energy problems.
Other Key Findings Health Care Remains a Secondary Issue. The proportion of voters saying that the issue of health care will matter most in their vote has increased very little in the wake of the court’s decision upholding the 2010 law. Just 22% rate health care as their top issue, largely unchanged from the 19% who said this last month.
Independents View Both Parties Unfavorably. For the first time in the past four election cycles, majorities of independent voters view both parties unfavorably: 57% of independents have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party, while 62% view the GOP unfavorably.
Public Sees Better News on Gas Prices. While news about the job situation is viewed negatively, the public is more upbeat about news about gas prices. Currently, as many say they are hearing mostly good news about gas prices as mostly bad news (31% each). In March, fully 85% said news about gas prices was mostly bad; just 2% said it was mostly good.
The general election contest between Obama and Romney has changed little over the past few months. Currently, 50% of registered voters support Obama or lean more toward him, while 43% back Romney or lean toward him. In June (June 7-17), Obama held a slight four-point edge (50% to 46%) and in May, Obama led 49% to 42%.
Similarly, the preferences of key groups of voters have remained fairly stable. Independents are evenly divided (46% Obama vs. 45% Romney), which is little changed from last month (49% Romney vs. 44% Obama). Obama continues to hold wide leads among blacks, Hispanics, women, college graduates and younger voters. Romney continues to hold a double-digit lead (currently 54% to 40%) among whites. As has been the case throughout this year, Romney’s advantage is particularly strong among working-class whites – he leads by a 58% to 35% margin among whites without a college degree, while white college graduates are divided (50% Obama, 47% Romney). (For trends in the race among selected demographic groups, see “Presidential Race Among Key Groups”).
Despite a steep increase in campaign advertising and other campaign activities in many key battleground states over the past month, there has been no shift in voter preferences. Currently, Obama holds a slim 51% to 44% margin among voters in 12 of the most competitive states. This is identical to the balance of support in these states in June.
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See Post #13 above...
Pew being a liberal organ, didn’t have much of a reason to skew their polls in 2008 as they do now attempting to prop up Obama.
so this poll sample was D33/R26/I35....yeah right, thats not biased...... sarc.
Yup, Pew has always been considered accurate.
Check the polling methodolgy. This one is a humdinger.
and the RV sample was D37/R30/I35....talk about way off the real electorate.
That was a good one pardner!
and the RV sample was D37/R29/I34....talk about way off the real electorate.
sorry corrected.
Were they even citizens? I doubt that Pew would check.
This Pew poll of 221 more Dems (995) than Repubs (774), and Independents polled for a whopping (1037).
Sorta flies in the face of the latest Rasmussen self-identity poll for the beginning of July, 2012.
“Partisan Trends: Republicans 35.4%, Democrats 34.0%, Unaffiliateds 30.5% Monday, July 02, 2012”
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends
Run the Ras percentages; OBama does not come out on top.
RE: Registered voters? Who cares about registered voters? What are the “internals?” Was there oversampling, again.
________________________________
I agree with your sentiment.
Can’t help but ask -— How is this a reliable poll?
From the internals:
“Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home.”
Not even registered voters... not even eligible for registering to vote, just youngest? Why not oldest? Why not random based on who answered the phone? Because this method gives them the results they’re wanting.
Hundreds more Democrats than Republicans included in the survey. Even though the survey itself found the Republicans more energized about the election, they weighted the sampling data as if Democrats would be more energized. Why purposefully distort the sampling size against the facts? Because it gives them the results they want.
The problem isn’t the results it gives, but that the setup of the survey was so skewed, the poll is basically useless for information purposes.
Not surprised for a few reasons.
1) More and more people are dependent on goverment benefits. Just last month more people went on disability (which now includes drug addiction, being fat and alcoholism)than actually got jobs. They are Obama voters.
2) The government has grown drastically since 2008 (especially since 2010) governent workers do NOT vote themselves a pay cut or to be unemployed. Obama has their vote.
3) Some republicans still see this as a race between a republican vs democrat OR a liberal vs conservative and whatever damage Obama does in 8 years can easily be reversed and we will again be on top again when Sara Palin or some other real conservative comes in in 2016 or 2020 or 2024. They still see this as "politics" and Obama's just a typical democrat liberal. Obama sees this as him vs America (as we know it). Obama does not have these people but neither does his opposition.
I don's see Obama conceding anytime in the next 4 years... maybe not even after that.
Pew Poll (circa July 1980): Carter Holds Lead, Reagan trails on most issues.
So, I'm assuming that fully 25% of the people who are not even registered voters probably don't even know who Mitt Romney is; most probably don't know this is an election year.
If you cull that 25% out, somehow, you are STILL stuck with the unreliable "registered voters," not "likely voters." They try to obfuscate their incredibly bad sample by simply enlarging it. But if you enlarge your sample of a field of manure by adding more manure fields, guess what you get?
Still, this allows RCP to lick its lips and change its more accurate numbers to show a steady Obama lead.
A leftist will win the ‘12 POTUS race, no matter what. Both, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney agree on way too many issues, while Mitt Romney continues to pretend that he’s a conservative!
Pew...stinks they’re always biased to the left. They polled registered voters not LIKELY voters, which would give a different result. They’re doing all they can to brain wash us, don’t buy their BS.
You’ll see ALL media polls reflect the truth just in time to save their reputations and relevance...usually weeks before the election.
ALL of media bends the truth to build excitement and viewership and the public falls for it election after election.
“It’s going to be a close one folks, right down to the wire, a real cliffhanger and only WE have the most accurate polls” /s
Oh come on....the brain dead obama admin and his lapdog media told us not to read too much into the jobs report! Like obama stated “The private sector is doing fine” (that statement is based on White hut hiring and pay raises). Funny, now the revised numbers as Rush stated later in his show today, the BLS number of UI bennies was off by 89000 (higher)...oops...the gub caught lying about unemployment and jobs...do tell.
How would you explain today's 50%-43% in favor of Obama at Pew and the 46% to 45% Romney advantage at Rasmussen?
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