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Moscow Ready for a Confrontation with the West Over Syria
Jamestown Foundation Eurasia Daily Monitor ^ | 7/12/2012 | Pavel Felgenhauer

Posted on 07/12/2012 11:22:52 PM PDT by bruinbirdman

On July 9, speaking to Russian reporters at an air show near London, Vyacheslav Dzirkaln, a deputy director of Russia’s Federal Military-Technical Cooperation Service (FSVTS), which supervises the arms trade, announced that Moscow will not be signing new arms trade contracts with Syria or “sending new weapons, while the situation in the country [Syria] is unstable.” “There is a civil war in Syria,” stated Dzirkaln, “Russia, together with other nations, is concerned with the situation.” Last January, an arms contract with Syria worth reportedly some $550 million was signed to sell 36 Yak-130 trainer jets, which can be used as light attack aircraft, particularly in anti-insurgency warfare. Dzirkaln declared the Yak-130 jets will not be shipped to Syria before “the situation there is stabilized” (RIA Novosti, July 9).


Yak-130 jet, which Russia is delivering to Syria

The report was greeted with elation by US diplomats in Washington and Moscow as a solid indication of Moscow’s position on Syria finally “changing” against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. US ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul – former director for Russia and Eurasia on the US National Security Council, considered the architect of President Barack Obama’s “reset policy” of improved US-Russian relations – was reported by the Russian press as making a Russian language tweet: “Excellent news” (Komsomolskaya Pravda, July 9).

It is obviously important for the Obama administration during the present election season in the US to have proof the “reset” is working and that Russia is ready to be reasonable on important international issues. McFaul’s personal political future in Washington, or lack thereof, may be connected to the public success or failure of the “reset.” An arms embargo imposed on the Assad regime would have been a serious development that the Obama administration (and McFaul) could note as a very timely foreign policy accomplishment.

This week, a delegation of the umbrella opposition group Syrian National Council (SNC), based in Turkey and openly backed by Western and Arab states, came to Moscow. The SNC delegation, led by its new chairman, Abdel Basset Sayda, met with officials, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Influential senator Mikhail Margelov – a longtime advocate of moving Russian policy away from the doomed Assad regime – called the SNC “the most serious and inclusive opposition organization.” Margelov told journalists that the SNC’s Moscow visit “was the beginning of a dialogue with a real force that could solve the Syrian conflict” (RIA Novosti, July 10). Sayda in turn asked Lavrov to put pressure on Assad in the UN by agreeing to sanctions if the regime continues to use force, but talks in Moscow did not bring any progress: According to Sayda, “Moscow’s position did not change, though dialogue helped [us] to better understand each other” (RIA Novosti, July 11).

There are differing positions in the ruling Moscow elite on how to proceed with Syria. Margelov has, for some time, been the public face of those who believe it is time to distance Moscow from al-Assad and that further arms deals with Syria are not in Russia’s interest – especially considering that Damascus does not have the money to pay for new weapons as the economy is hit by Western sanctions and civil war. There are hawks in the Foreign and Defense Ministries, as well as the intelligence community, in Moscow with long-time connections to the present Syrian military-intelligence establishment. They argue the Syrian regime may still defeat its enemies and that abandoning an old ally is wrong. President Vladimir Putin has strongly promoted a hard line on Syria, apparently seeing the conflict as part of a global US-led conspiracy intent on forcefully changing the regime in Damascus and, after that, possibly in Moscow by supporting the Russian opposition (see EDM July 5).

This week, speaking to leading Russian diplomats and ambassadors gathered for an annual meeting in Moscow from all over the world, Putin used extremely harsh language, describing Western-led “so-called humanitarian operations” as “the export of rocket and bomb democracy.” According to Putin the West is losing its influence in the world and is desperately disregarding international law to regain control (www.kremlin.ru, July 9). Putin’s words were soon reflected in action. Dzirkaln swiftly clarified his statements by announcing that Russia will continue shipping arms to Syria, and the Yak-130 jets are not being sent at present “because they have not yet been assembled; but the work is being done.” There is “no talk of any arms embargo against Syria,” according to Dzirkaln (Interfax, July 11).

In the UN, Russia has announced it will veto a Western-backed resolution that threatens sanctions if the violence in Syria does not cease. Russia put forward its own resolution that extends the UN observer mission in Syria, but does not mention any sanctions. The Russian resolution has been fully supported by Damascus “as balanced” (RIA Novosti, July 11).

The Russia navy is assembling a task force in the Mediterranean: one frigate, two corvettes, five landing craft with Marines on board, two rescue tugs and one tanker. Three of the landing craft are from the North Sea fleet and two from the Black Sea fleet. The number of Marines on board is estimated from 500 to 1,000. The joint flotilla may be deployed “for maneuvers” near Syria for up to three months and may dock in the Russian supply base in Tartus (Syria), though it will mostly be at sea (Interfax, July 11). According to Dzirkaln, the Russian naval task force in the Mediterranean will be given orders “to defend Russian shipping in the event of a naval blockade” (RIA Novosti, July 11). Of course, most of the ships of the Russian task force sent to Syria are of Cold War vintage and do not have effective air cover, but the deployment means Moscow will not only continue arms shipments to Syria, but also provide an armed escort to such shipments to prevent a possible Western-led naval blockade from imposing an embargo. Moscow is, in effect, deploying a trip-wire force to stop the supposed “export of rocket and bomb democracy.” It seems the Obama administration will be forced to live with that, while continuing to pretend the “reset” is bringing real results.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events; Russia
KEYWORDS: russia; syria

1 posted on 07/12/2012 11:23:00 PM PDT by bruinbirdman
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To: bruinbirdman

With the “West”? If he’s talking politically and not geographically I guess that means we’re off the hook.


2 posted on 07/12/2012 11:24:40 PM PDT by tsowellfan (http://www.cafenetamerica.com/)
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To: bruinbirdman
As usual the genocidal pychopath Putin accuses the US of what he is guilty of. The only one exporting rockets and bombs to Syria is the mass murderer and war criminal KGB Putin himself.

Assad is dropping cluster bombs on his own people just like Putin used cluster bombs to ethnically cleanse and exterminate innocent civilians in the nation of Georgia.

Cluster munitions reported in Syria - July 12, 2012

3 posted on 07/12/2012 11:38:08 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
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To: Tailgunner Joe
". . . the deployment means Moscow will not only continue arms shipments to Syria, but also provide an armed escort to such shipments to prevent a possible Western-led naval blockade from imposing an embargo. Moscow is, in effect, deploying a trip-wire force to stop the supposed “export of rocket and bomb democracy.” It seems the Obama administration will be forced to live with that, while continuing to pretend the “reset” is bringing real results."

yitbos

4 posted on 07/12/2012 11:56:35 PM PDT by bruinbirdman ("Those who control language control minds." -- Ayn Rand)
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To: bruinbirdman
How is a Muslim vs, Muslim fight in Syria a Western problem? Yeah, the interventionists will say, “what about Assad's WMD stockpiles”? Well, it looks like Assad will start using them on his enemies if he's losing and the Russian's beefing him up, might be a good thing. Assad maybe a butcher, but he's a piker in comparison to the “Arab Spring” guys that want to oust him.

There are NO good guys in this fight. Let the Muslims do what they do best — kill each other — and keep the civil war in Syria confined to Syria. That's one less crazy nation to worry about.

5 posted on 07/12/2012 11:58:57 PM PDT by MasterGunner01 (11)
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To: bruinbirdman

Good thing! Otherwise, Hillary and Obozo would already have us attacking the Syrians, acting as the defacto air wing of the Muslim brotherhood.
Maybe we won’t be treated to an encore performance of the Egyptian outcome.


6 posted on 07/13/2012 12:00:35 AM PDT by DesertRhino (I was standing with a rifle, waiting for soviet paratroopers, but communists just ran for office.)
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To: bruinbirdman

Good thing! Otherwise, Hillary and Obozo would already have us attacking the Syrians, acting as the defacto air wing of the Muslim brotherhood.
Maybe we won’t be treated to an encore performance of the Egyptian outcome.


7 posted on 07/13/2012 12:00:53 AM PDT by DesertRhino (I was standing with a rifle, waiting for soviet paratroopers, but communists just ran for office.)
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To: Tailgunner Joe

Looks like the talks did not work out so good. Oh well.


8 posted on 07/13/2012 12:08:55 AM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: bruinbirdman
Additional details about the chemical WMD being moved by Syria.

U.S.: Syria moves nerve gas out of storage

Do not think they need nerve gas to take on rebels. The WMD is probably for external threats.

9 posted on 07/13/2012 12:24:12 AM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: Tailgunner Joe

IIRC, there may be some Russian skin in the game. Are the items trucked to the Bekka Valley still up there? If someone hit that facility with the right bunker buster, who knows what would get out (including the story about how the Russian convoys moved Saddam’s WMDs out before the coalition troops rolled in).


10 posted on 07/13/2012 12:28:17 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing)
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To: Smokin' Joe
Remember that old convoy very well. Looking back on the situation, it is hard to believe that Russia would have gone to such great risks just for Chemical and Biological WMD. Since after all Syria already had one of the worlds largest stockpile of chemical WMD on the planet. It would make better sense if Russia was removing nuclear warheads.

It would also make sense for Russia to forward deploy nuclear warheads into their middle eastern sphere of influence. The US has done the same by forward deploying nuclear warheads into Turkey. Russia is right now assembling a flotilla of ships out in the Mediterranean. They are meant to possibly be a trip wire if the US/NATO tries to blockade the Syrian coastline. And also a possible evacuation fleet for Russian citizens in Syria. All under the cover of previously scheduled war games.

11 posted on 07/13/2012 12:42:59 AM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: justa-hairyape
While I agree that there were likely Nuclear materials involved, and chemical weapons were likely low on the priority list (even though yellow rain had been used against the Kurds), the Russians (well, Soviets) had maintained ongoing bioweapons research, often in satellite locations.

Saddam wanted such a program, and the USSR may have paid the tab and provided expertise without risking accidents on their own turf.

Recall, the IAF bombed a nuclear facility up there, and the word was the area was so hot they had to bury it. Likely reprocessing or reconfiguring weapons-grade materials, the Israelis caught word of it and neutralized the operation.

There may be a lot to keep tabs on in there, and after Beslan, I think there is little doubt that the MB, AlQaida, and Taliban, (among others who are all factions of the same eventual Caliphate) and the Russians aren't going to be buddies except when both sides have some anticipated gain from the situation.

Still, the minions of global Marxism (yes, it is another conquer-the-world -ism) would suffer a setback if it got out that GWB and the US intelligence agencies were right about Saddam's WMDs, especially if that evidence surfaced this close to the Iraq war. That could shift the whole 'historical' narrative from 'Bush lied..." to reality, justifying the war, and making the subsequent useful idiot and willing tool second-guessers look like the Lackeys of Global Marxism they are.

Such an awakening in the American People would especially be inconvenient for the current string-pullers for the Marxist puppets who are running our Federal Government right now, and could conceivably cause a backlash unseen since McCarthy was hunting Commies. While the country could use a good purge that way, I doubt either the (former) Soviets or the traitors among us would want that to happen.

12 posted on 07/13/2012 1:08:18 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing)
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To: Smokin' Joe
Assad and Saddam were not really true Islamists. More secular at heart and they just paid Islam lip service. So there would be no problem with Russia forward deploying nuclear warheads in Iraq or Syria. Same Islamic issues arise with the US and Turkey.

It is a shame that anyone even listens to the leftist Marxist retards. Do not even watch any of their news outlets (CBS, NBC, ABC etc..). Right now we are going to war with Iran and Syria apparently. We know Syria for a fact has the worlds largest chemical WMD stockpile and the warheads are on the move. Iran for a fact is developing nuclear weapons. We should have handled Iran years ago similar to the way the Israeli's handled Syria nuclear research. Wham. Bam. Goodbye.

Now we apparently have to undertake two simultaneous wars against combatants that have known WMD capabilities (Syria Chemical Biological) or on the verge of acquiring them (Iran Nuclear). And the same Marxist progressive idiots that screamed bloody murder in Iraq, are completely silent.

13 posted on 07/13/2012 1:23:03 AM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: bruinbirdman

During the Cold War, we never took crap from Socialist/Communist countries (like the Soviet Union). So now, considering the roles have reversed, why should Russia take crap from Socialist/Communist countries (like the US and Europe)?

What goes around comes around.


14 posted on 07/13/2012 4:42:33 AM PDT by BobL
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To: BobL

Quite frankly, DC and NATO have lost their collective minds. They are using Islamic Terrorists to overthrow a government that possesses the largest stockpile of Chemical WMD on the planet. Clear insanity. They deserve everything the Russians are about to dish out.


15 posted on 07/13/2012 8:42:35 AM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: MasterGunner01
Yeah, the interventionists will say

I think there are damn few interventionists although arms are being provided covertly which I approve of.

16 posted on 07/13/2012 12:08:50 PM PDT by bkepley
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To: bkepley

I think our Usurper-in-Chief is an interventionist as long as starting a “wag the dog” crisis to win the presidency is concerned. He is that much a ‘rat.


17 posted on 07/14/2012 1:06:00 PM PDT by MasterGunner01 (11)
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To: bkepley

I think our Usurper-in-Chief is an interventionist as long as starting a “wag the dog” crisis to win the presidency is concerned. He is that much a ‘rat (and desperate).


18 posted on 07/14/2012 1:34:34 PM PDT by MasterGunner01 (11)
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