Skip to comments.Pew poll: Obama 50, Romney 43
Posted on 07/13/2012 9:31:13 AM PDT by xzins
U.S. President Barack Obama leads presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney 50-43 among registered voters nationwide, a poll released Thursday found.
Obama is favored by 88 percent of Democrats while 89 percent of Republicans favor Romney, who leads among independent voters 46 percent to 45 percent for Obama. The poll found 34 percent of Romney backers said they support him strongly, while 64 percent of Obama voters said they support him strongly. snip
Unemployment remains the No. 1 issue for voters overall. Forty-six percent said they favored Romney on the issue, and 42 percent favored Obama.
However, Romney has gone from an 8-point advantage on the question of which candidate is better able to improve the economy, to an 8-point deficit, trailing Obama on the issue 48 percent to 42 percent.
The poll was conducted by landline and cellphone June 28-July 9, 2012 among 2,973 adults, including 2,373 registered voters. The samples were weighted to account for demographic composition, with sampling errors taking into account the effect of weighting.
Pew said the survey has a 95 percent level of confidence for different groups.
(Excerpt) Read more at upi.com ...
The fawning media coverage that Obama gets is worth at least 10 points.
Of the remaining 80%, how many are likely to vote?
I haven’t tried to check the demographics... Being PEW, what do you think?
and this is not even putting in Conservs... :/
This might as well be a poll paid for by the Zero campaign to make him look good after weeks of results showing him slipping in the polls.
What’s an “independent”?
What does it stand for?
How does one get its vote?
Romney wins slightly among independents with each candidate has about 90% support among their own party. To get to the 50-43 Obama lead that means Pew must have assumed a huge (and unwarranted after the 2010 election) lead in the number of Democrats. Garbage in, garbage out.
Sorry, should have checked before I posted :p
and this is not even putting in Conservs... :/
It’s not called the “Pew” poll for nothing. It’s worthless. However, it does provide jobs for a lot of people.
I think if this were a poll for Obama vs “un-named candidate” Obama would be losing.
The results about 50-43 are based on registered voters. To get that number the poll had to interview 2973 adults.
Since a registered voter is already registered, they are POTENTIAL voters if their candidate can get them fired up. Already registered is the key.
4 months out, there is reason to still be looking at registered voters. After the conventions, there's no way I'd be looking at anything but likely voters, but 4 months out it gives significant information to know what the registered electorate out there is thinking.
I'd be interested in how they weighted their sampling, though. That isn't given.
Registered voters.Now lets find out just who they polled.Was it 51% Rat,22% Republican?
THIS HEADLINE MADE ME LAUGH SO HARD, *LITERALLY LAUGH* THAT MY COWORKERS CAME AROUND TO SEE WHAT WAS SO FUNNY!!!! OMG WTF LOL.....
Make that “registered DEMOCRAT voters”
Pew is known as the most accurate poll out there
We don’t have their weighting strategy, but with independents breaking about even, but slightly for Romney, I agree that they are still deciding to see the population with more democrats than republicans.
Rasmussen uses polling to determine their breakdown of dems vs repubs, iirc. Those would be self-reports of party affiliation.
Nonetheless, what this poll says is that Romney is not creaming Obama.
His decision to play rope-a-dope is allowing Obama to define him and define the issues.
Registered voters and adults. Throw this one in the trash can.
Nope, the survey size included 2973 adults. The “sample” used for registered voters was 2300+ registered voters.
I haven’t looked up the party affiliation weightings.
The “No Romney, No Way” crowd at FR should be rejoicing in this news.
But with persistence, I got:
So, we have the weighting being: Rep: 28%, Dem: 35%, Ind: 32%
7 point lead for Dems right out of the box.
They are trying to hide it, of course, by burying the internals. I expect at some point they will simply do away with showing the internals, outright.
1. “Registered Voters.”
That alone invalidates the poll. I think around half of “Registered Voters” actually vote.
2. The only states that matter are the “battle ground” states, like Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, etc. The rest of the states are pretty much decided. A 100% for Obama in California, Massachusetts, or New York, does not matter - there was no chance those states were going for the ‘Pubbie any way.
Throw this poll away. 20% of those polled aren't even registered to vote.Where does it say that?
Win the future??!???
The “Romney No Way Crowd”, of which I am a card-carrying member, is not rejoicing. More likely we’re sitting there PO’d because “we told you so”.
A large group of us believed all along that the sitting radical liberal would defeat the challenging radical liberal. Rasmussen’s electoral vote page yesterday had Obama only 23 votes away from the 270 needed to win....Michigan and Pennsylvania had gone into his account.
IOW, a loss in Florida and it’s all over for Romney.
FWIW, Romney’s non-responsiveness and decision to go on vacation, have added up to what gop-e experts were fearing...Obama is getting to define both Romney and the issues.
This means that the Republicans plus the independents are fewer in number than the Democrats.
The P-—you poll....also skewed left in respondents and questions
it doesn’t say that; it says of 2973 surveyed 2373 were registered voters. People are confusing Pew’s giving the total number surveyed with the number who were registered and used in the actual numbers.
There could, however, be a problem with the party affiliation weightings, but that, too, depends on how they arrived at them.
Check in with David Horowitz for a ‘POLL’ on PEW’s objectivity.
“we told you so.”
You told who so? No one here voted for Romney in the primary. We just decided to vote for him over Obama in the general.
Except for all of the other pollsters. Read this, and know the truth - you are being manipulated.
Specifically, regarding the Pew poll:
Starting in 1992, EVERY Pew poll appears to lean to one direction always towards the Democrat, and by an average of more than 5 percentage points. Worse this is a reflection of the final poll which even the Democratic firm, Public Policy Polling, usually gets right. October 1988 Bush 50 Dukakis 42; Actual Result Bush +7.6 (Call this one spot on.) Late October 1992 Clinton 44 Bush 34; Actual Result :Clinton +5.5 (Skew against Republican candidate +5.5) November 1996 Clinton +51 Dole 32; Actual Result Clinton +8.5 (Skew against Republican candidate +10.5) November 2000 Gore 45; Bush 41 (Skew against Republican Candidate +3.5) November 2004 Kerry 46; Bush 45 (Skew against Republican Candidate +3.4) November 2008 Obama 50 McCain 39 (Skew against Republican + 3.8)
Any poll, like this one, that assumes a 9% advantage for Democrats over Republicans, is pure garbage. It is published only to sway liberal and Roney-hating opinion.
This is what annoys me so much about people on Free Republic. If Obama is winning the poll is crap. That is fine but everyone did the same thing in 2008 and Obama ended up winning. It sucks when you don’t take polls seriously. I would rather every poll say that Obama is winning and Romney do something about it than show Romney winning every poll and him get comfortable and do nothing as he has the last few weeks.....Complacency is an awful thing and that is DEFINITELY what happened in 2008.
Polls are all over the place right now which suggests to me that they are pretty worthless. Once they start to converge we’ll have to pay attention. Except for one outlier the polls were dead on with the final results in Wisconsin.
“So, we have the weighting being: Rep: 28%, Dem: 35%, Ind: 32%”
So that’s how you get Romney leading the indeps but Obama winning by 7.
The polls aren't all wrong, but this one is. Read my reply at post 35 to see the facts.
Pew polls tend to overstate the liberal candidate’s numbers.
And, they have historically been inaccurate.
It’s pew - communist polled only.
So that's why they weight it to give a seven point gimmee to the Democrats.
By the way, the "accuracy" is a scam. Allow me to explain.
not really...Rasmussen has shown himself to be the best...he was beaten up on Freep four years ago when his polls consistently showed McLame 6/7pts behind obozo but he was on the money...
I recalculated this assuming the same were adjusted so there are equal numbers of Dems and Reps, and further assumed all the undecideds were from the Inds, and all the Dems/Reps voted for Obama/Romney resp., and get
You told us what? I don't know a single person here that voted for or supported Romney in the primaries.
You third party types, particularly in battle ground states will be the ones that might get us the worst, most divisive, most pro-Marx, most pro-death, most pro-muzzie, most anti-American, most anti-free enterprise, most anti-everything we love and stand for elected for his second term. If he gets reelected he'll surely go full Hugo Kardashian Chavez Jr on us all, taking what freedoms we have left as much he wants, congrats on your choice.
Shame on you, and shame on you for posting and implying this poll doctored to make us feel helpless is reality.
That makes it 27/32/39 rep/dem/ind
The question is when they apply the weighting using whatever formula.