Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Pew poll: Obama 50, Romney 43
UPI ^ | July 12, 2012 | UPI

Posted on 07/13/2012 9:31:13 AM PDT by xzins

U.S. President Barack Obama leads presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney 50-43 among registered voters nationwide, a poll released Thursday found.

snip

Obama is favored by 88 percent of Democrats while 89 percent of Republicans favor Romney, who leads among independent voters 46 percent to 45 percent for Obama. The poll found 34 percent of Romney backers said they support him strongly, while 64 percent of Obama voters said they support him strongly. snip

Unemployment remains the No. 1 issue for voters overall. Forty-six percent said they favored Romney on the issue, and 42 percent favored Obama.

However, Romney has gone from an 8-point advantage on the question of which candidate is better able to improve the economy, to an 8-point deficit, trailing Obama on the issue 48 percent to 42 percent.

The poll was conducted by landline and cellphone June 28-July 9, 2012 among 2,973 adults, including 2,373 registered voters. The samples were weighted to account for demographic composition, with sampling errors taking into account the effect of weighting.

Pew said the survey has a 95 percent level of confidence for different groups.

(Excerpt) Read more at upi.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; bho2012; bow2rinoloss; chosenloser; dncchosenrino; elections; obamanomics; pew; rino2lose; romney; romneytruthfile
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-100101-126 next last

1 posted on 07/13/2012 9:31:26 AM PDT by xzins
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: xzins

“registered voters”


2 posted on 07/13/2012 9:34:14 AM PDT by bigbob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: xzins

The fawning media coverage that Obama gets is worth at least 10 points.


3 posted on 07/13/2012 9:35:47 AM PDT by Westbrook (Children do not divide your love, they multiply it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: xzins
Throw this poll away. 20% of those polled aren't even registered to vote. They have so little interest they can't even be bothered to register. Their opinions don't count and, I'm sure, are weighed heavily towards the regime.

Of the remaining 80%, how many are likely to vote?

4 posted on 07/13/2012 9:35:47 AM PDT by Former Proud Canadian (Obamanomics-We don't need your stinking tar sands oil, we'll just grow algae.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: bigbob

I haven’t tried to check the demographics... Being PEW, what do you think?

80% Democraps
105 IND
!~5 Repub?

and this is not even putting in Conservs... :/


5 posted on 07/13/2012 9:36:46 AM PDT by Bikkuri (Choose, a communist, socialist, or Patriot)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: bigbob
“registered voters”

Ditto.

This might as well be a poll paid for by the Zero campaign to make him look good after weeks of results showing him slipping in the polls.

6 posted on 07/13/2012 9:37:38 AM PDT by mojito
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: xzins

What’s an “independent”?

What does it stand for?

How does one get its vote?


7 posted on 07/13/2012 9:37:38 AM PDT by EyeGuy (Armed, judgmental, fiscally responsible heterosexual.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: xzins
The samples were weighted to account for demographic composition,

Romney wins slightly among independents with each candidate has about 90% support among their own party. To get to the 50-43 Obama lead that means Pew must have assumed a huge (and unwarranted after the 2010 election) lead in the number of Democrats. Garbage in, garbage out.

8 posted on 07/13/2012 9:38:07 AM PDT by KarlInOhio (You only have three billion heartbeats in a lifetime.How many does the government claim as its own?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: bigbob

Sorry, should have checked before I posted :p

80% Democraps
10% IND
10% Repub?

and this is not even putting in Conservs... :/


9 posted on 07/13/2012 9:38:23 AM PDT by Bikkuri (Choose, a communist, socialist, or Patriot)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: xzins

It’s not called the “Pew” poll for nothing. It’s worthless. However, it does provide jobs for a lot of people.


10 posted on 07/13/2012 9:38:23 AM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Help reduce voter fraud in America! If you see something, say something!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: xzins

Sample: D+9.


11 posted on 07/13/2012 9:38:33 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: xzins

I think if this were a poll for Obama vs “un-named candidate” Obama would be losing.


12 posted on 07/13/2012 9:38:40 AM PDT by tsowellfan (http://www.cafenetamerica.com/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Former Proud Canadian
U.S. President Barack Obama leads presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney 50-43 among registered voters nationwide, a poll released Thursday found

The results about 50-43 are based on registered voters. To get that number the poll had to interview 2973 adults.

Since a registered voter is already registered, they are POTENTIAL voters if their candidate can get them fired up. Already registered is the key.

4 months out, there is reason to still be looking at registered voters. After the conventions, there's no way I'd be looking at anything but likely voters, but 4 months out it gives significant information to know what the registered electorate out there is thinking.

I'd be interested in how they weighted their sampling, though. That isn't given.

13 posted on 07/13/2012 9:40:24 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: xzins

Registered voters.Now lets find out just who they polled.Was it 51% Rat,22% Republican?


14 posted on 07/13/2012 9:40:50 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Jimmy Carter Is No Longer The Worst President Of My Lifetime)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: xzins

THIS HEADLINE MADE ME LAUGH SO HARD, *LITERALLY LAUGH* THAT MY COWORKERS CAME AROUND TO SEE WHAT WAS SO FUNNY!!!! OMG WTF LOL.....


15 posted on 07/13/2012 9:41:10 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Borg Zombies walk around groaning "Commmppuutteerrrrssss......Commmppuutteerrrrssss......")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: bigbob

Make that “registered DEMOCRAT voters”


16 posted on 07/13/2012 9:41:47 AM PDT by wattsmag2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: xzins
This was talked about and analyzed yesterday at great lengths. The sample size, included about 7 percent more democrats than republicans and included a large number of “adults”. Sorry, just more propaganda.
17 posted on 07/13/2012 9:42:38 AM PDT by Perdogg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: xzins
Comment over at NRO with title: Why Are So Many Pollsters Oversampling Democrats?

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/309347/why-are-so-many-pollsters-oversampling-democrats#comment-bar

I have a MS in Computer Science, majoring in Quantitative Mathematics/Statistics. So my side hobby is sort of re-engineering these oversampled polls to the proper party id.

The party id split in 2008 was D+7. While the diff in 2010 was essentially tie.

My program I use just about splits the difference (D+3) to be conservative (even though I think that the R turnout will be higher).

Based on my analysis using a sample of D 36 R 33 I 31 across all national polls over the past 3 months (using RCP list which provides internals/crosstabs), Romney is leading 48.6 - 44.2 (Romney +4.2)

If you use a 34|34|32 sample, you would get Romney leading 49.8 - 43.4 (Romney +5.4)

18 posted on 07/13/2012 9:43:45 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Pew is known as the most accurate poll out there


19 posted on 07/13/2012 9:44:57 AM PDT by tsowellfan (http://www.cafenetamerica.com/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: KarlInOhio

We don’t have their weighting strategy, but with independents breaking about even, but slightly for Romney, I agree that they are still deciding to see the population with more democrats than republicans.

Rasmussen uses polling to determine their breakdown of dems vs repubs, iirc. Those would be self-reports of party affiliation.

Nonetheless, what this poll says is that Romney is not creaming Obama.

His decision to play rope-a-dope is allowing Obama to define him and define the issues.


20 posted on 07/13/2012 9:44:57 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: bigbob

Registered voters and adults. Throw this one in the trash can.


21 posted on 07/13/2012 9:45:19 AM PDT by saganite (What happens to taglines? Is there a termination date?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg; TSowell

Nope, the survey size included 2973 adults. The “sample” used for registered voters was 2300+ registered voters.

I haven’t looked up the party affiliation weightings.


22 posted on 07/13/2012 9:47:36 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: xzins

The “No Romney, No Way” crowd at FR should be rejoicing in this news.


23 posted on 07/13/2012 9:48:42 AM PDT by Notary Sojac (Ut veniant omnes)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: xzins
You really have to dig to get to the internals these days.

But with persistence, I got:

So, we have the weighting being: Rep: 28%, Dem: 35%, Ind: 32%

7 point lead for Dems right out of the box.

They are trying to hide it, of course, by burying the internals. I expect at some point they will simply do away with showing the internals, outright.

24 posted on 07/13/2012 9:49:11 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Borg Zombies walk around groaning "Commmppuutteerrrrssss......Commmppuutteerrrrssss......")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: xzins

1. “Registered Voters.”
That alone invalidates the poll. I think around half of “Registered Voters” actually vote.

2. The only states that matter are the “battle ground” states, like Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, etc. The rest of the states are pretty much decided. A 100% for Obama in California, Massachusetts, or New York, does not matter - there was no chance those states were going for the ‘Pubbie any way.


25 posted on 07/13/2012 9:52:45 AM PDT by Little Ray (FOR the best Conservative in the Primary; AGAINST Obama in the General.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Former Proud Canadian
Throw this poll away. 20% of those polled aren't even registered to vote.
Where does it say that?
26 posted on 07/13/2012 9:52:54 AM PDT by raulgomez05
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: xzins

Win the future??!???


27 posted on 07/13/2012 9:53:40 AM PDT by jimfree (In Nov 2012 my 12 y/o granddaughter will have more relevant executive experience than Barack Obama)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Notary Sojac

The “Romney No Way Crowd”, of which I am a card-carrying member, is not rejoicing. More likely we’re sitting there PO’d because “we told you so”.

A large group of us believed all along that the sitting radical liberal would defeat the challenging radical liberal. Rasmussen’s electoral vote page yesterday had Obama only 23 votes away from the 270 needed to win....Michigan and Pennsylvania had gone into his account.

IOW, a loss in Florida and it’s all over for Romney.

FWIW, Romney’s non-responsiveness and decision to go on vacation, have added up to what gop-e experts were fearing...Obama is getting to define both Romney and the issues.


28 posted on 07/13/2012 9:54:29 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: xzins
Obama is favored by 88 percent of Democrats while 89 percent of Republicans favor Romney, who leads among independent voters 46 percent to 45 percent for Obama.

This means that the Republicans plus the independents are fewer in number than the Democrats.

29 posted on 07/13/2012 9:55:19 AM PDT by Raycpa
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: xzins

The P-—you poll....also skewed left in respondents and questions


30 posted on 07/13/2012 9:56:49 AM PDT by Nifster
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: raulgomez05

it doesn’t say that; it says of 2973 surveyed 2373 were registered voters. People are confusing Pew’s giving the total number surveyed with the number who were registered and used in the actual numbers.

There could, however, be a problem with the party affiliation weightings, but that, too, depends on how they arrived at them.


31 posted on 07/13/2012 9:57:39 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: tsowellfan

Check in with David Horowitz for a ‘POLL’ on PEW’s objectivity.

http://www.discoverthenetworks.org/search/?cx=013255222075609514560%3Avfcebs4vcuo&q=pew&sa=Search&cof=FORID%3A11&cx=013255222075609514560%3Avfcebs4vcuo&siteurl=www.discoverthenetworks.org%2Fsearch%2F&ref=www.discoverthenetworks.org%2F&ss=639j269321j3

ROTFLMAO


32 posted on 07/13/2012 9:58:45 AM PDT by To-Whose-Benefit? (It is Error alone which needs the support of Government. The Truth can stand by itself.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: xzins

“we told you so.”

You told who so? No one here voted for Romney in the primary. We just decided to vote for him over Obama in the general.


33 posted on 07/13/2012 10:00:53 AM PDT by EEGator
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: raulgomez05
SAmple size total - 2973 . . registered voters 2373.

2973 - 2373 = 600. 600/3000 = 0.2 = 20%.

The devil is in the details. :)
34 posted on 07/13/2012 10:01:27 AM PDT by Sudetenland (Member of the BBB Club - Bye-Bye-Barry!!! President Barack "Down Low" Obama)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: tsowellfan
Pew is known as the most accurate poll out there

Except for all of the other pollsters. Read this, and know the truth - you are being manipulated.

Specifically, regarding the Pew poll:

Starting in 1992, EVERY Pew poll appears to lean to one direction — always towards the Democrat, and by an average of more than 5 percentage points. Worse this is a reflection of the “final” poll which even the Democratic firm, Public Policy Polling, usually gets right. October 1988 — Bush 50 Dukakis 42; Actual Result Bush +7.6 (Call this one spot on.) Late October 1992 — Clinton 44 Bush 34; Actual Result :Clinton +5.5 (Skew against Republican candidate +5.5) November 1996 — Clinton +51 Dole 32; Actual Result Clinton +8.5 (Skew against Republican candidate +10.5) November 2000 — Gore 45; Bush 41 (Skew against Republican Candidate +3.5) November 2004 — Kerry 46; Bush 45 (Skew against Republican Candidate +3.4) November 2008 — Obama 50 McCain 39 (Skew against Republican + 3.8)

Any poll, like this one, that assumes a 9% advantage for Democrats over Republicans, is pure garbage. It is published only to sway liberal and Roney-hating opinion.

35 posted on 07/13/2012 10:01:37 AM PDT by TonyInOhio ("If we want to get rid of Obamacare, we're going to have to replace President Obama.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Former Proud Canadian

This is what annoys me so much about people on Free Republic. If Obama is winning the poll is crap. That is fine but everyone did the same thing in 2008 and Obama ended up winning. It sucks when you don’t take polls seriously. I would rather every poll say that Obama is winning and Romney do something about it than show Romney winning every poll and him get comfortable and do nothing as he has the last few weeks.....Complacency is an awful thing and that is DEFINITELY what happened in 2008.


36 posted on 07/13/2012 10:02:06 AM PDT by napscoordinator
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: xzins

Polls are all over the place right now which suggests to me that they are pretty worthless. Once they start to converge we’ll have to pay attention. Except for one outlier the polls were dead on with the final results in Wisconsin.


37 posted on 07/13/2012 10:02:28 AM PDT by bkepley
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: xzins
... internals show that Obama wins 50-43 among Dem welfare bums reached on their couches during the day..." LOL!
38 posted on 07/13/2012 10:04:37 AM PDT by pabianice
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: xzins
Pew is real close to the “O-line” with this one. The “O-line” defines the point where rats are sufficiently oversampled to make a poll worthless and laughable.
39 posted on 07/13/2012 10:04:37 AM PDT by JPG (Whatever semantics are used, it is still a TAX.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Lazamataz

“So, we have the weighting being: Rep: 28%, Dem: 35%, Ind: 32%”

So that’s how you get Romney leading the indeps but Obama winning by 7.

POLLAGANDA.


40 posted on 07/13/2012 10:05:29 AM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: napscoordinator
This is what annoys me so much about people on Free Republic. If Obama is winning the poll is crap.

The polls aren't all wrong, but this one is. Read my reply at post 35 to see the facts.

41 posted on 07/13/2012 10:07:00 AM PDT by TonyInOhio ("If we want to get rid of Obamacare, we're going to have to replace President Obama.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: xzins

Pew polls tend to overstate the liberal candidate’s numbers.

And, they have historically been inaccurate.


42 posted on 07/13/2012 10:07:11 AM PDT by DustyMoment (Congress - another name for white collar criminals!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: bigbob

It’s pew - communist polled only.


43 posted on 07/13/2012 10:08:14 AM PDT by edcoil (It is not over until I win.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: tsowellfan
Pew is known as the most accurate poll out there

So that's why they weight it to give a seven point gimmee to the Democrats.

By the way, the "accuracy" is a scam. Allow me to explain.

44 posted on 07/13/2012 10:09:37 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Borg Zombies walk around groaning "Commmppuutteerrrrssss......Commmppuutteerrrrssss......")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: tsowellfan

not really...Rasmussen has shown himself to be the best...he was beaten up on Freep four years ago when his polls consistently showed McLame 6/7pts behind obozo but he was on the money...


45 posted on 07/13/2012 10:09:45 AM PDT by God luvs America (63.5million pay no federal income tax then vote demoKrat)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: xzins

46 posted on 07/13/2012 10:10:36 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Lazamataz

I recalculated this assuming the same were adjusted so there are equal numbers of Dems and Reps, and further assumed all the undecideds were from the Inds, and all the Dems/Reps voted for Obama/Romney resp., and get

47% Romney
46% Obama
7% Undecided


47 posted on 07/13/2012 10:11:25 AM PDT by TomEwall
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: xzins
we told you so

You told us what? I don't know a single person here that voted for or supported Romney in the primaries.

You third party types, particularly in battle ground states will be the ones that might get us the worst, most divisive, most pro-Marx, most pro-death, most pro-muzzie, most anti-American, most anti-free enterprise, most anti-everything we love and stand for elected for his second term. If he gets reelected he'll surely go full Hugo Kardashian Chavez Jr on us all, taking what freedoms we have left as much he wants, congrats on your choice.

Shame on you, and shame on you for posting and implying this poll doctored to make us feel helpless is reality.

48 posted on 07/13/2012 10:11:57 AM PDT by Lakeshark (I don't care for Mitt, the alternative is unthinkable)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: xzins

LOL.


49 posted on 07/13/2012 10:12:33 AM PDT by Quickgun (Second Amendment. The only one you can put your hands on.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Lazamataz
Not necessarily, Laz. This appears to be the standard they apply with their Princeton group.

That makes it 27/32/39 rep/dem/ind

The question is when they apply the weighting using whatever formula.

50 posted on 07/13/2012 10:13:07 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-100101-126 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson