Skip to comments.EP update for July 13 - Big moves in the Senate Republicans claim projected majority
Posted on 07/13/2012 3:59:21 PM PDT by SMGFan
Two polls released in the last few days by Rasmussen Reports have altered the projected Senate landscape quite noticeably. In Florida, Rasmussen's latest gives Republican Connie Mack a strong 9-point lead over incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson. This poll screams outlier, but since there have been so few polls conducted for this race in the last many weeks (just 2 since the beginning of June), not enough data exists to discard it. The situation does beg the question - how will I objectively determine when outliers will be discarded? To address this important issue, I have come up with an "outlier test" that I will explain in a coming post. I think you'll find it reasonable.
The other new Republican gain in the Senate is the open seat battle in North Dakota. Early on, once Democrat Kent Conrad decided against running for re-election, this seat seemed to be an easy GOP pickup. However, Democrats recruited perhaps the strongest candidate on their bench in North Dakota in former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp. A Mason-Dixon poll published in early June gave evidence of her strength, actually showing her in the lead by a point over Republican Congressman Richard Berg. Her advantage in that poll had colored the state blue on the Senate projection map from then until today. But now, Berg's 9-point lead in Rasmussen's survey moves the race to the red column. In truth, Rasmussen's result is more in line with expectations.
(Excerpt) Read more at electionprojection.com ...
Very good news.
If they are as good with the Senate in 2012 as they were with the House in 2010 you can take their opinion to the bank. They beat out the much better know Larry Sabato, Real Clear Politics, Cook, Rothenberg and CQPolitics.
And I didn’t know you noticed. :)
Sabato’s shoes have been tied together for decades. He spouts the obvious and then gets it wrong.
Scott Elliott’s website , not sure he is a freeper. Let’s ask?
On the web
Good report. Thanks for sharing.
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