Skip to comments.All Of The Big Wall Street Banks Are Lowering Their Economic Forecasts Today
Posted on 07/16/2012 4:12:45 PM PDT by Palmetto Patriot
That dismal June retail sales report is causing a mass GDP-forecast-slashing parade on Wall Street.
Here's Goldman's Jan Hatzius...
Retail sales declined by 0.5% (month-over-month) in June, while the consensus had looked for a 0.2% gain. Key details of the report were also weaker: non-auto retail sales declined by 0.4%, and growth in April was revised down. Similarly, core/control retail sales (ex-autos, gasoline and building materials) was weak, declining 0.1% in June. The weakness reflected lower sales across a variety of categories, including general merchandise stores, electronics, furniture, sporting goods stores, and health and personal care retailers. Merely food and beverages, clothing, and non-store retailers posted gains on the month. The report was a negative for our tracking estimate of Q2 GDP growth, which we reduced by two tenths to 1.1%.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Well, this was unexpected.
Yes, it was, unless you were paying attention.
What is the “R” word?
If you listen at all to small business you will hear the “D” word shouted daily.
"The report was a negative for our tracking estimate of Q2 GDP growth, which we reduced by two tenths to 1.1%.
"The net effect of weaker than expected retail sales, inclusive of revisions, is less Q2 consumption which we are tracking at +1.3%. This is down from our previous estimate of +1.8% and causes us to lower our forecast of Q2 real GDP by another 0.4% to +1.0%."
"The weaker-than-expected June data in addition to downward revisions have lowered our Q2 GDP tracking model to 1.2% from 1.3% previously."
"Consumer spending slowed abruptly in Q2. Consensus estimates of GDP growth in Q2 are likely to be lowered to 1.5% or less, down from growth of +1.9% in Q1."
These Banks are lowering their estimates for GDP to barely a crawl, yet outside of the business pages, there is no notice taken by the MSM.
Do they think that people in the real world don't know what's going on?
After all, don't they know that real consumers are responsible for three consecutive months of drops in consumer spending?
“UNEXPECTEDLY... what we thought was happening... wasn't... what we did to the economy... thinking it would work... has failed... and all of this was unexpected mind you... now consumers have gone all scared and stuff and they are screwing up obama’s dream and making us all look bad.
In response, are taking the earlier figures that we presented to you and we are revising them downward. Basically consumer spending is causing a reduction in the real GDP and it is all Bush's fault... somehow”.
Reality is intruding upon their delusions.
>> “What is the R word?” <<
They'll ask, why do you post these depressing articles.
No, if you listen closely they are saying the "D" word and even "The end of our civilization" words.