Skip to comments.Presidential Race Tightens in New Mexico (Obama loses ground)
Posted on 07/18/2012 12:55:14 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Mitt Romney appears to have closed much of the 14 point gap betweenn himself and President Obama that PPP measured in its last survey in April. Obama now leads by only 5 points in the land of enchantment, 49% to 44%. This comes along with a drastically reduced net approval rating for the president, down to even from a +9 mark 3 months ago. Romneys favorability has seen a positive shift from an abysmal -22 rating in that survey, and now stands at -9, 41% to 50%.
This change comes in spite of relatively level support for the president among Independents at +9, compared to +11 from the April poll. Instead the movement comes from a drop in the support he receives from within his own party. 21% of Democrats said that they preferred Romney in the presidential race, up from 12% in April.
Obama has also lost ground among both Hispanics and whites. With Hispanics, a group that Obama must win by large margins in several competitive states this year, Obama has gone from a 37 point lead to a 22 point lead.
PPP also examined the race with Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson in the mix. He draws 13% of voters, while reducing Obamas lead further to +4. While among partisan voters Johnson only takes a significant share of Republicans, he wins 24% of Independents, eliminating the Presidents lead with that group.
When the popular Governor Susana Martinez, who garners a +22 approval rating by herself, is included as Romneys running mate, the race tightens further, with the Republican ticket within one point of the Democrats, 48% to 47%. The Romney-Martinez ticket enjoys the support of 25% of Democrats.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
This is a very good sign. Obama was counting on New Mexico, but Romney seems to be making inroads in the Albuquerque area. The state is also the site of a key U.S. Senate race (Wilson vs. Heinrich) that could decide control of the chamber.
That’s why I like Martinez, She would make an impact nationwide.
Yes, NM-freepers, I know you don’t want to lose her.
The split by the way is D52/R33/Ind33.......and Obama didnt even hit 50.........lol.
is a Democrat polling company.
sorry Indies 16%........and 52+33+16 is 101% you idiots at PPP.
Thats the party breakdown? You have got to be shi**ing me.
nope, i think NM has a higher Dem registered population than many, but even in saying that, a dem sample of 52% and Obama can only hit 49%.
If you count all the bogus registered voters in New Mexico, you get way over 101 percent, and I have it on good authority that they are all Democrat. New Mexico also has a system whereby mysterious boxes of ballets are allowed to be turned in and counted. Those too are Democrat votes.
For what its worth, NM is about 50% registered DEms, a 1/3 republican and about 16% independent....so there is a 2% bias to the dems here. So if you factor that in, this race is about tied.
Obamugabe sucks. Even New Mexicans are beginning to realize the fact.
Interesting, supposedly Obama is giving Romney such a hard time yet Obama has lost ground in NM and NH.
What do you get if you add 51.6 + 32.6 + 15.6?
Some of those Democrats might be small business owners who have the idea they deserve some of the credit for their own success. If Barry spits in your face enough times you might lose the urge to vote for him, even if you are a Democrat.
7% Undecided -> Incumbent Rule: minimum 80% break for Romney
Romney 49.6 - Obama 50.4 -> Tossup
But the point is that 0bama is still ahead. It is quite a trick given his awful performance in the Oval Office. At some point in time, Romney has to start leading in the polls or it will be 2008 redux — many on FR kept citing McLame poll numbers improving and had their heads in the sand on the fact that McLame was never in the lead nationally or even tied, and was nowhere to be found in the Electoral College.
No, that is not the point. In fact, the point is obvious, Romney is moving up, Obama is moving down. Its the trend.
Now your point might be different, but then its obvious how you feel about Mitt. You are entitled to your opinion, but not your own facts.
If Romney picks off New Mexico, it will probably translate into a 40+ state blowout nationwide.
$100 million in televised lies.Calling Romney a felon...and still behind.
Mmmmaybe. But if NM flips, CO follows, and then there's no path to victory for Bobo.
That is a very interesting statistic... one that could make a huge difference in NM.
So, somebody help me out here. Am I reading this correctly? Gary Johnson takes more votes from Obama than he does Romney? That doesn’t sound right. But, then, he is the former Governor.
Thats why I like Martinez, She would make an impact nationwide.
I think you are correct. After Rubio, she’s my choice.
bogus registered voters in New Mexico, you get way over 101 percent, and I have it on good authority that they are all Democrat.
I had friends who voted Republican their entire life, and, after they died, they started voting Democrat.
He'd get rid of 4 or 5 department in the Federal government, cut taxes by 50% and let the states raise taxes for more revenue to offset Federal dollars. Taxes raised in the state, stay in the state.
Gary is out there on some issues, but a lot of what he wants to do appeals more the the liberals than the conservatives. He will take votes away from Oblunder.
This is a State poll and when polling within a State it is appropriate to use the Demographic mix within that particular State. I do not know what the ratio of registered D/R/I is in NM but if it is that heavily Democrat then the polling may be accurate. Nation polling is done the same way but usually they use the demographic mix from the most recent election. Rasmussen has this at his website: Partisan Trends: Republicans 35.4%, Democrats 34.0%, Unaffiliateds 30.5%
I kind of would like that for about 4 years, just because of the damage it would do to the entrenched government.
I had forgotten that Gary Johnson seems to taking from Baraq and Glove pretty evenly in NM which is excellent.
Looks like it will be play (but if Romney wins it he’s also taking NV and CO so it would be extra).