Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

The 5 economic stats that will decide the election are all pointing down for Obama
AEI ^ | 07/20/2012 | James Pethokoukis

Posted on 07/20/2012 5:10:34 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

Forget those head-to-head matchup polls between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Instead, look at the incumbent’s approval rating. No president has won reelection with an approval rating below 50% (In 2004, George W. Bush had a 48% approval rating among registered voters but was over 50% with likely voters.) And right now, according to the RealClearPolitics average, Obama stands at 46.9%.

So how can Obama boost that rating to 50%? A better economy would sure help. As Dan Clifton of Strategas Research puts it:

Our premise has been that the President’s approval rating will determine whether he is effectively making the sale to voters for a second term. And the variable most important to the President’s approval rating over the past year has been the unemployment rate. Based on the current trajectory, the President needs a 7.6 pct unemployment rate to reach that 50 pct benchmark. The trajectory of the economy is what matters and we reviewed just about every economic indicator possible and found only a couple of metrics that have correctly predicted presidential reelections. These indicators are listed below with the economic improvements needed for the President to reach a 50 pct approval rating. We will update these with each new data release.

The above chart shows what those indicators are and where they stand right now. And right now all five show Obama below where he needs to be to hit 50%. Job growth and income growth needs to be faster, consumer confidence higher.

And time is running out for a last-minute boom. In fact, the new Wall Street Journal survey of economists finds that forecasters see the third-quarter of 2012 as only slightly stronger than the past two.



TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; bho2012; bhoeconomy; economicstats; obama; trends

1 posted on 07/20/2012 5:10:43 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

These numbers reinforce my belief that Obama will lose in a landslide.


2 posted on 07/20/2012 5:16:38 PM PDT by Signalman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

*


3 posted on 07/20/2012 5:18:05 PM PDT by PMAS
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
America has been called upon to reject the Obama Nation of Desolation which has been set up in our holy place, the White House. We will not get another chance to reject this evil spawn of self centered human nature. Now or never for America. Let's make a stand together, friends.
4 posted on 07/20/2012 5:23:49 PM PDT by Armaggedon
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Those are relevant economic categories. They will each have an impact, as will they all in aggregate.

I’ve got a social, cultural, political, psychological and historical little tidbit that will blow the doors off brocko’s chances: NOBODY respects him.

A fairly sizable segment of the electorate find brocko USEFUL; but NO ONE respects him. I am more and more convinced of this. Think about it: even his supporters seem to hold him in some derision. Read a liberal blog or two (hold nose, swallow hard), and you’ll see what I mean.


5 posted on 07/20/2012 5:26:49 PM PDT by Migraine (Diversity is great; until it happens to YOU.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Migraine

Goofball/conspiracy theory question.

What if after 0bama is no longer in office we find out that he was never qualified to hold the office, do all the sh!t things he did get reversed?


6 posted on 07/20/2012 5:43:48 PM PDT by Cyclone59 (Obama is like Ron Burgundy - he will read ANYTHING that is on the teleprompter)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Signalman

We’ll need a landslide to overcome the ‘rat cheating!!


7 posted on 07/20/2012 6:19:15 PM PDT by Dr. Pritchett
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

r squared is not “correlation”.

r is correlation coefficient - how well the data fits a line.

r squared is coefficient of determination - how much of the variation in the dependent variable is due to the variation in the independent variable.

where’s toddsterpatriot?


8 posted on 07/20/2012 6:40:44 PM PDT by Principled (It's not enthusiasm for Romney, it's grim determination to remove Hussein)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Signalman

I agree with you. O will lose in the landslide, but every time I say that, people respond, “No way.”


9 posted on 07/20/2012 6:41:51 PM PDT by Justice4awe
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Justice4awe

I hope you’re correct.

Historically an economy like this is a death blow for a POTUS candidate.

But the Baraqqis have used it to up dependence on govt to a startling degree: 99ers, record EBT, bailouts, Obamaphones, etc.

I fear we are close to the tipping point.

We’ll find out in November. If Obama wins, we’ll have to do some hard work on FR deciding what the next move for patriots will be.


10 posted on 07/20/2012 6:48:35 PM PDT by nascarnation
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Signalman
These past comparisons are entirely irrelevant.

Obama will be graded on a curve because of the "historical nature" of his presidency.

If he was John F. Kerry he'd be road kill.

11 posted on 07/20/2012 7:14:56 PM PDT by newzjunkey (Pontius Pilate 'voters' are arrogant, delusional, lilly-livered collaborators.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

All these things are nice but they do not take into account what will be the most massive vote fraud in American history.


12 posted on 07/20/2012 7:17:06 PM PDT by arthurus (Read Hazlitt's Economics In One Lesson)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cyclone59
What if after 0bama is no longer in office we find out that he was never qualified to hold the office, do all the sh!t things he did get reversed?

Personal opinion on the matter -- piecemeal,through the courts, there may be some dismantling of his bovine scatology. But me, I'll just be so bloomin mad to see the effer gone, I probably won't even think about doing anything except getting back to the good old Constitution in all future governance.

13 posted on 07/20/2012 7:39:07 PM PDT by Migraine (Diversity is great; until it happens to YOU.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Justice4awe

No way.


14 posted on 07/21/2012 12:18:25 AM PDT by karnage
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson